Fantasy Football is Half Luck (1 Viewer)

[Deamon]

My buddy was heavily favoured in his 3 vs 6 playoff matchup this week (he missed a bye on a tie breaker as the 6th place team snuck in).  6th place team is a dolphins fan and started the Miami Kicker (and also AJ brown, but no one else that good) and won by 3 points.  If this happens in the regular season, you can use your skill to overcome this tough loss.  In playoffs, you cannot and you're done. 

Winning a title takes a lot more luck than making the playoffs.  My goal is to make playoffs in 80% of my leagues, and hope to win over 50% of my playoff matchups each week.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I think the problem is many of you are labeling things that happen on a football field as "lucky" and that luck somehow is factored in to your fake football team.....

when Ertz caught that second TD pass in OT on Monday night some people won a game (in part) because of it...... and probably said "man I got really lucky"...... well there are the same amount of people (because they lost) that said "damn, I was really unlucky there"....when in fact, luck had nothing to with it.....if it can be both, than it really is neither....this hobby isn't weighted coins and excuses and such....

 

[fightingillini]

you said this....

Reg Season:  75% skill, 25% luck. 
Playoffs:  25% skill, 75% luck.

I just don't see how this magically changes from week 13 to week 14.....the FF gods have no idea if your league starts the playoffs in week 14 or week 8.....

I have some leagues where the playoffs start in week 13.....and others not until week 14.....so in the same week (13) I am 25% lucky and 75% lucky....got it.....lol...whatever...

maybe if I can add those together I am 100% lucky which means there is no way I can lose....but unfortunately that 100% only adds up to 100 of 200 cause it's two separate leagues which means I am really only 50% lucky in week 13.....dang it....

you put what you think is your best lineup out there every week after putting yourself in the best possible position to win any match up....and the chips fall where they may.....

Because you treat weeks 1-13 together.  You don't have to win Week 3 to make the playoffs.  You usually have to win 7-8 games over the 13.  Week 3 is never really a must win game, unless you have started 0-2.

But you HAVE to win every week from week 14 on to win the title.  If you have a good team and you're a 60/40 favorite against most teams......you will only win 3 games in a row 21.6% of the time, of if you have the bye, it's 36% chance to win 2 games in a row.  So luck is so much more in play during the playoffs.

It's that simple.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

My buddy was heavily favoured in his 3 vs 6 playoff matchup this week (he missed a bye on a tie breaker as the 6th place team snuck in).  6th place team is a dolphins fan and started the Miami Kicker (and also AJ brown, but no one else that good) and won by 3 points.  If this happens in the regular season, you can use your skill to overcome this tough loss.  In playoffs, you cannot and you're done. 

Winning a title takes a lot more luck than making the playoffs.  My goal is to make playoffs in 80% of my leagues, and hope to win over 50% of my playoff matchups each week.

I'd just say the 6th place team had a better fake football team that week......like your buddy had more often in the regular season.....I guess if you want to say the 6th place team was "lucky" he started AJ Brown and the MIA PK....and your buddy was "unlucky" he started them....so be it.....but I don't define that as "luck".....

 

[Deamon]

I think the problem is many of you are labeling things that happen on a football field as "lucky" and that luck somehow is factored in to your fake football team.....

when Ertz caught that second TD pass in OT on Monday night some people won a game (in part) because of it...... and probably said "man I got really lucky"...... well there are the same amount of people (because they lost) that said "damn, I was really unlucky there"....when in fact, luck had nothing to with it.....if it can be both, than it really is neither....this hobby isn't weighted coins and excuses and such....

I don't know what you're missing here man, maybe google probabilities, odds, and sample sizes.  Not trying to be rude but those are very important concepts.

It has nothing to do with that Ertz TD that won and lost the game.  It's that over 13 games, people who build great teams through insight, waiver moves, line up decisions, etc., often come out on top.  Losing a game in the regular season to a kicker who gets 24 when his average is 5 sucks, but it can be overcome.  If that happens in the playoffs, it can't be. 

It has nothing to do with "Week 15 is luckier than Week 2".  It is the fact that making the playoffs takes more skill compared to winning a title once you get to playoffs.

 

 

[Deamon]

Because you treat weeks 1-13 together.  You don't have to win Week 3 to make the playoffs.  You usually have to win 7-8 games over the 13.  Week 3 is never really a must win game, unless you have started 0-2.

But you HAVE to win every week from week 14 on to win the title.  If you have a good team and you're a 60/40 favorite against most teams......you will only win 3 games in a row 21.6% of the time, of if you have the bye, it's 36% chance to win 2 games in a row.  So luck is so much more in play during the playoffs.

It's that simple.

I don't know what he's missing here. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

some could argue that prepping for and decisions around playoff time take more skill than during the regular season....you have to factor in teams shutting it down, players maybe not playing as much, games having playoff implications or not, teams wanting to see younger players play or not.....etc....anyway....different ways of looking at things....good luck to all of you in your playoffs.....no pun intended...

 

[Deamon]

some could argue that prepping for and decisions around playoff time take more skill than during the regular season....you have to factor in teams shutting it down, players maybe not playing as much, games having playoff implications or not, teams wanting to see younger players play or not.....etc....anyway....different ways of looking at things....good luck to all of you in your playoffs.....no pun intended...

Jesus man.  Sure week 15 can be a bit more than week 3.  We're talking about being happy with winning 65% of your games over 13 games, vs being happy by NEEDING to win 3 in a row.  You can literally lose to a guy who gets "lucky" and started the worst kicker in the NFL in week 3 and it's fine.  In week 15 it ruins your year. 

 

[Brunell4MVP]

That's the beauty of it.  It's a lot like the NFL.   put together a good roster, avoid injuries, get good matchups when the opponent is struggling, and be hot at the end of the season.  

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Because you treat weeks 1-13 together.  You don't have to win Week 3 to make the playoffs.  You usually have to win 7-8 games over the 13.  Week 3 is never really a must win game, unless you have started 0-2.

But you HAVE to win every week from week 14 on to win the title.  If you have a good team and you're a 60/40 favorite against most teams......you will only win 3 games in a row 21.6% of the time, of if you have the bye, it's 36% chance to win 2 games in a row.  So luck is so much more in play during the playoffs.

It's that simple.

I just feel there too many other factors to simply settle for these percentages....I'll use an extreme example to make my point...if somebody drops Lamar Jackson after week 13 and I pick him up starting in week 14.....I'd guess that my "chances or percentages" to win 3 games in a row dramatically increase from that "baseline" or whatever it is of 21.6%.....

 

[Deamon]

That's the beauty of it.  It's a lot like the NFL.   put together a good roster, avoid injuries, get good matchups when the opponent is struggling, and be hot at the end of the season.  

You can play defense in the NFL.

 

[Deamon]

I just feel there too many other factors to simply settle for these percentages....I'll use an extreme example to make my point...if somebody drops Lamar Jackson after week 13 and I pick him up starting in week 14.....I'd guess that my "chances or percentages" to win 3 games in a row dramatically increase from that "baseline" or whatever it is of 21.6%.....

And if they dropped him in week 1 that would be the same thing.  Also no one would drop him obviously late in the season. 

However, that doesn't "Dramatically increase the 27%".  Even with a stacked team, this is fantasy football.  Things like a Dolphins kicker getting 24 points randomly happen.  Even with the best team in the league, your odds of beating another good playoff team is at maybe 80%.  Winning 3 games in a row at 80% each still only gives you a coin flip (51%) chance of taking the title.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

And if they dropped him in week 1 that would be the same thing.  Also no one would drop him obviously late in the season. 

However, that doesn't "Dramatically increase the 27%".  Even with a stacked team, this is fantasy football.  Things like a Dolphins kicker getting 24 points randomly happen.  Even with the best team in the league, your odds of beating another good playoff team is at maybe 80%.  Winning 3 games in a row at 80% each still only gives you a coin flip (51%) chance of taking the title.

I guess I also just don't really know what database you are pulling these 80% and 51% and 21% from or if you are just spewing them out there...and how they do or don't factor things in like my Lamar example....that would seem impossible when we can completely change our rosters from week to week....

 

[IHEARTFF]

You’re either just trolling or don’t understand probabilities at all. More than enough explanation has been given already. 

 

[Deamon]

I guess I also just don't really know what database you are pulling these 80% and 51% and 21% from or if you are just spewing them out there...and how they do or don't factor things in like my Lamar example....that would seem impossible when we can completely change our rosters from week to week....

The 80% is arbitrary.  The 51% is math.  If you have an 80% chance any given week to win a matchup, than the probability of winning three games in a row (thus being happy and successful in the playoffs), is .8 X .8 X .8 = 51%.  This is blowing my mind that you aren't getting this.

If you don't like the 80%, what percentage do you want to give to a solid team who makes solid roster moves throughout the year?  What are his odds of winning each game?  Any number you choose, you will see that once you crunch the numbers, the odds of said solid team/owner making the playoffs over 13 games is very high.  The odds of same said team/owner winning the title are quite low. 

Therefore, if you are good at fantasy, you can overcome some 'unlucky' things over the course of the season like injuries or your opponents awful kicker kicking 7fg's in a game.  If these 'unlucky' things happen to you in the playoffs, you are not going to win a title.

Therefore, luck plays less of a role when determining if you make playoffs, and more of a role when determining if you win the title. 

Not sure how to be any more clear than that man, you've clearly made up your mind on what you want to believe?

 

[fightingillini]

I guess I also just don't really know what database you are pulling these 80% and 51% and 21% from or if you are just spewing them out there...and how they do or don't factor things in like my Lamar example....that would seem impossible when we can completely change our rosters from week to week....

We're using math.  60% * 60% * 60% = 21.6%.   That's the probability of winning 3 games in a row assuming 60/40 edge on each game.  As Deamon laid out, even if you're a big favorite at 80% (which is an extreme example), you still only win 3 in a row 51.2%, or barely a coin flip.

If you somehow got Lamar for Week 14, sure your odds of winning that week go up by a few percent.  Say it's from 60% to 65%.  You still only have a 27.5% chance of winning 3 in a row.  Doesn't change our points.....that you need a lot of luck to come out on top, even in theory you have the best team over 13 weeks.

All it takes is a 5FG week from your opponents kicker, or your opponents D taking two INTs to the house, or someone due to injuries having to start Darius Slayton last week and he erupts for 5-150-2........for some powerhouse team to lose.

I am in an auction keeper league where I am 11-2 and scored 350 points more than any other team.  But in the semifinals, I am only favored by 17 points and I am a 62-38 favorite.  My powerhouse team will only win the title about 38-40% of the time.  That's just reality.

 

[Warhogs]

It seems like only one guy is arguing and not understanding in this thread...

 

[Deamon]

It seems like only one guy is arguing and not understanding in this thread...

lol I just looked at the bottom where it shows 'recently browsing' and one of the people reading is @That one guy

 

[Gally]

At a certain point, no matter how good you may be at crafting an incredible roster, you need some luck to make it through the playoffs. How many of you have amazing rosters that just let you down at the last second?

I unfortunately have 0 playoff luck, and it has cost me 5 years in a row. I'm sure some of you have been caught in similar situations. My Dynasty team is a juggernaut in the regular season year after year and has been carefully crafted through trading and drafting. It consists of Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Leveon Bell, James Conner, David Johnson, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, AJ Brown, Antonio Brown, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, OJ Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield and several other young players. By any definition my team is utterly stacked and should be piling up championships. For all my work I have two second place finishes and zero championships. 

My team steamrolls its way through the regular season only to lay a huge stinker in the playoffs. Last week I had multiple stars put up 5 pts or less, and this week Rodgers and Kamara combined for 13. It's incredibly frustrating that these all-stars always seem to have a down week when it really counts. Hope you have better luck than me!

Most of my leagues are play 17 weeks and best record wins.  This takes away the playoff "luck" factor and is a better possibility of the "best" team winning the title.

 

[Deamon]

Most of my leagues are play 17 weeks and best record wins.  This takes away the playoff "luck" factor and is a better possibility of the "best" team winning the title.

 I've seen that done but I would say it's extremely rare to not have fantasy playoffs.  I'm very surprised that a majority of your leagues do something that rare.

 

[Gally]

 I've seen that done but I would say it's extremely rare to not have fantasy playoffs.  I'm very surprised that a majority of your leagues do something that rare.

It started with my first league that started in 1985.  Every league i created after that I incorporated the same structure.  The only leagues I am in with playoffs is my work league.  I do play both but much prefer the straight 17 weeks.  

For those that want to minimize the luck I suggest you eliminate playoffs and try it for a year.  You may end up liking it better 

In the league from 1985 we have 14 teams and the schedule is balanced.  You play every team once (13 games) and we have 4 position weeks (every 4th week.....4, 8, 12, 16).  It works very well.

Try it....you'll like it.....plus you have meaningful games for the entire year.

To keep bottom teams interested we pay out 1% from weeks 14 to 17 to the highest scoring "eliminated from a money spot" team.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

all play with no playoffs for 17 weeks (or 16 if you prefer) would seem to be the best way to eliminate "luck"....

 

[Deamon]

It started with my first league that started in 1985.  Every league i created after that I incorporated the same structure.  The only leagues I am in with playoffs is my work league.  I do play both but much prefer the straight 17 weeks.  

For those that want to minimize the luck I suggest you eliminate playoffs and try it for a year.  You may end up liking it better 

In the league from 1985 we have 14 teams and the schedule is balanced.  You play every team once (13 games) and we have 4 position weeks (every 4th week.....4, 8, 12, 16).  It works very well.

Try it....you'll like it.....plus you have meaningful games for the entire year.

To keep bottom teams interested we pay out 1% from weeks 14 to 17 to the highest scoring "eliminated from a money spot" team.

I see.  I do like some aspect of luck though.  My main personal beef with these types of leagues is that it becomes no fun for the majority of the league who won't be able to catch first place.  The last 4 weeks of the season will pretty much be irrelevant for half the league, so they won't have meaningful games the entire year.  Not sure the 1% is enough motivation. 

My friend does a total points league no playoffs too.  Just seems hard to stay engaged and have much to look forward to unless you're crushing the league.  But yes, I agree it would be the least luck factor possible doing it this way.

I like combo's of these things.  I try to eliminate some luck by using Victory Points in almost all my leagues.  Also byes for top 2 really help reward great teams.  I just joined a league this year where top 6 make playoffs, and the top 3 scoring playoff teams in week 15 all go head to head with each other week 16.  Looking forward to seeing how that goes.

 

[That one guy]

lol I just looked at the bottom where it shows 'recently browsing' and one of the people reading is @That one guy

I bowed out when the real math started 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

all play with no playoffs for 17 weeks (or 16 if you prefer) would seem to be the best way to eliminate "luck"....

Total points for the year would eliminate a lot of the luck. But people don't want to play that way.

 

[Gally]

Total points for the year would eliminate a lot of the luck. But people don't want to play that way.

Then you might as well play Roto style.  It's boring and removes the weekly rush of an opponent.  That is the best part about how football format works.  Easy weekly cutoffs for matchups.  It's why Football is the most popular of fantasy sports.