ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
I didn't see this posted anywhere & thought it was kind of interesting.
Fabiano released this Passing schedule analysis on April 14. Running schedule analysis will be examined on April 21.
In short, his formula was to add up the opposition's 2007 defensive rank for the pass (& rush). The higher the point total means the easier the schedule. Again, this list is just for passing.
Link: http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d...mp;confirm=true
Fabiano released this Passing schedule analysis on April 14. Running schedule analysis will be examined on April 21.
In short, his formula was to add up the opposition's 2007 defensive rank for the pass (& rush). The higher the point total means the easier the schedule. Again, this list is just for passing.
Link: http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d...mp;confirm=true
Useful information? Or as meaningless as most seem to believe the Strength of Schedule is?Schedule analysis: Tampa Bay, Carolina have favorable slates
By Michael Fabiano | NFL.com
Fantasy Editor
With the 2008 NFL schedule set to be released tomorrow, countless prognosticators and pontificators will break down the "strength of schedule" for all 32 teams. The formula for this sort of schedule analysis is simple: Add up the combined wins and losses of the opposing teams from last season and calculate a winning percentage based on those numbers.
This sort of analysis can also be valuable in the world of fantasy football, but we take it a step further here at NFL.com. We've broken down the schedule from the defensive side of the football. Rather than calculate wins and losses, we've added up the opposition's 2007 defensive rank against the pass and the run. For example, if a team has Minnesota (32nd vs. pass) and Detroit (31st vs. pass) on its schedule, those two teams are worth a combined 63 points. The higher the point total for all 16 contests, the easier the schedule.
On the flip side, if a team faces both Tampa Bay (1st vs. pass) and Indianapolis (2nd vs. pass), it is rewarded a combined two points. The lower the point total, the harder the schedule. Based on our final point totals, we will have an idea of how schedules can increase or decrease the value of players. While I wouldn't base the decision to draft or not draft a player based on schedule alone, this sort of data can be valuable when owners have to decide between two or three players at the same position with similar value.
Now that we have the parameters for our research, let's take a look at the ever-important results. We'll start off with pass schedules, and examine run schedules on April 21.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 364 points: Atlanta (2), Carolina (2), Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), Oakland, San Diego, Seattle Fantasy footballers will notice a trend at the top of the pass schedule: The top four teams come from the NFC South. Outside of the Buccaneers (1st), none of the teams from this division ranked better than 17th (Carolina). Furthermore, opponents from the NFC North had one team (Green Bay) in the top 12 against the pass in 2007. This is good news for Jeff Garcia, though I still wouldn't take him as more than a fantasy reserve. It also helps the stock of wide receivers Joey Galloway and possible sleeper Antonio Bryant.
Carolina Panthers 339 points: Atlanta (2), Arizona, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), N.Y. Giants, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay (2) The Panthers have done a lot to improve their offense this offseason, adding D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad to a core of wide receivers that includes Steve Smith. Reports on Jake Delhomme's recovery from elbow surgery have been positive, so he could be a nice late-round value based on starts against Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and New Orleans. None of those teams ranked higher than 23rd last season. These little factoids will improve the value of Delhomme, Smith and Hackett, who is a definite sleeper.
Atlanta Falcons 327 points: Carolina (2), Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans (2), Philadelphia, St. Louis, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay (2) A favorable pass schedule is almost lost on the Falcons, as Chris Redman will be left undrafted in most formats. However, he could become a viable matchup option in leagues with 12-plus teams against the likes of Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and St. Louis. The player that sees the greatest increase in value is Roddy White, who broke out with 83 receptions, 1,202 yards and six touchdowns last season. It could also mean a small increase in the stock of Laurent Robinson, who should have a chance to start.
New Orleans Saints 312 points: Atlanta (2), Carolina (2), Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa Bay (2), Washington With games against Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota and San Francisco on the schedule, Drew Brees has more than his share of favorable matchups to exploit in 2008 and will no doubt be one of the first five quarterbacks taken in all drafts. The schedule is also favorable for Marques Colston, who will continue to be seen as a No. 1 fantasy wideout, and David Patten has added late-round value in larger formats. Reggie Bush, who has averaged 80.5 receptions in his first two NFL seasons, should also benefit.
Chicago Bears 312 points: Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Bears are a team without an offensive identity, as questions persist at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. While opponents like Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans and St. Louis are favorable, it won't make Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman much more valuable in drafts. It does boost the potential stock of wideouts like Marty Booker, Devin Hester and Mark Bradley, however, and Greg Olsen could now emerge as a No. 1 fantasy tight end based on his own skills and a soft schedule.
Washington Redskins 308 points: Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee Jason Campbell has to learn another offense, this one under new head coach Jim Zorn, so it helps that he has one of the more favorable pass schedules. He faces Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis and San Francisco -- none of these defenses finished better than 20th last season -- so Campbell could find at least some success. Santana Moss, who will be a No. 3 fantasy wideout in most formats, and No. 1 fantasy tight end Chris Cooley should also benefit in the stat sheets.
New York Giants 306 points: Arizona, Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas (2), Minnesota, Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington (2) The value of Eli Manning increased after an impressive postseason capped by a Super Bowl XLII championship, so the fact that he faces a favorable schedule will make owners swoon. He'll start against Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco, none of which finished better than 20th, so Manning will be seen as a No. 1 or 2 fantasy quarterback. This is also positive news for Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey, who'll look to rebound from a mediocre season.
Detroit Lions 303 points: Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Washington The fact that the Lions have an attractive pass schedule would have meant more in recent seasons, but this offense is now under the watch of Jim Colletto, not Mike Martz. Colletto plans to run a more balanced offense, and reports indicate Jon Kitna isn't a lock to finish the season as the No. 1 quarterback with Drew Stanton behind him on the depth chart. Still, contests against Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans and San Francisco are favorable for Kitna (or Stanton), Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.
Green Bay Packers 303 points: Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Dallas, Detroit (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota (2), New Orleans, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Packers have one of the easiest pass schedules in the league, which is an advantage for Aaron Rodgers in his first season as the team's No. 1 quarterback, as he'll face Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and New Orleans. While it's hard to expect the same sort of production that owners were used to with Brett Favre, Rodgers can be a viable No. 2 fantasy quarterback if he avoids injuries. The value of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Donald Lee should also benefit from the ease of schedule.
San Francisco 49ers 303 points: Arizona (2), Buffalo, Dallas, Detroit, Miami, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), Seattle (2), Washington The presence of Mike Martz does improve the stock of San Francisco's skill position players, but it will take more than Martz and a favorable pass schedule to move Alex Smith, Isaac Bruce or Bryant Johnson into the next tier at their positions. Smith has failed to live up to his draft position and will see competition from Shaun Hill, while Bruce and Johnson won't thrive if the quarterbacks don't improve. Vernon Davis will be a fantasy starter, but he could be hurt if Smith or Hill struggles regardless of the opponents.
Minnesota Vikings 302 points: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago (2), Detroit (2), Green Bay (2), Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Tampa Bay, Tennessee The Vikings are one of several teams in our top 10 that didn't have much of a pass attack last season, but their schedule features favorable matchups against Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston and New Orleans. While the offense will remain based on Adrian Peterson and the run, head coach Brad Childress must establish the pass in 2008. Tarvaris Jackson should still be seen as little more than a fantasy reserve, but Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice could post some nice stat lines against weaker opponents.
Indianapolis Colts 295 points: Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Jacksonville (2), Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tennessee (2) Tom Brady will be the first quarterback selection in most drafts after his sensational 2007 season, but Manning's immense value and a favorable schedule puts him behind Brady but ahead of Tony Romo at the position. Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota could all be overmatched by Manning and the Colts, whose offense should remain explosive. This is also positive news for Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark, all of whom will benefit from Manning's skills and rocket arm.
St. Louis Rams 294 points: Arizona (2), Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco (2), Philadelphia, Seattle (2), Washington Marc Bulger might have been a disappointment last season, but he could turn into a nice draft value in 2008. The veteran is back to 100 percent and should benefit from the presence of Al Saunders, who takes over as the Rams' new offensive coordinator. Furthermore, starts against Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago and San Francisco are favorable for Bulger's chances at statistical success. Torry Holt will also benefit from starts against lesser opponents, but Drew Bennett will remain a late-round reserve in most drafts.
Philadelphia Eagles 293 points: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas (2), N.Y. Giants (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington (2) Donovan McNabb finished last season on a high note, and favorable matchups against Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Chicago, Cincinnati, St. Louis and San Francisco could bode well for his chances to continue that success. These contests also benefit Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown and L.J. Smith, all of whom will be McNabb's top options in the pass attack in 2008. Brian Westbrook, who has to be considered the most versatile back in the NFL, will be even more attractive as a high-end first-round selection in drafts.
Jacksonville Jaguars 285 points: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Indianapolis (2), Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2) The Jaguars signed David Garrard to a six-year contract extension this offseason, and he should reward them with some tremendous numbers against Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota. Garrard was able to produce solid stat lines regardless of the opponent for much of last season, so the fact that he has some positive matchups makes him a solid breakout candidate. The pass schedule also improves the value of veteran wide receivers such as Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter.
Arizona Cardinals 279 points: Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Miami, Minnesota, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), San Francisco (2), Seattle (2), Washington There are a lot of questions about the Cardinals' pass attack next season under Matt Leinart, who seems to receive more bad press about his off-field behavior than positive reports as NFL quarterback. Leinart will have a middle-of-the-road pass schedule based on our research, but he does face favorable opponents like Minnesota, St. Louis and San Francisco. Regardless of the season's slate, Leinart's success or failure will have much to do with how well Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald perform in the stat sheets.
Tennessee Titans 273 points: Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston (2), Indianapolis (2), Jacksonville (2), Kansas City, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh The Titans didn't have much of a pass attack last season, as Vince Young threw nine touchdowns and struggled under center. While he will face lesser pass defenses like Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota, Young also faces six starts against teams that ranked in the top 12 against the pass in 2007. The presence of new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger and addition of Alge Crumpler are positive moves, but Young's pass schedule won't increase or decrease his stock in drafts.
Pittsburgh Steelers 270 points: Baltimore (2), Cincinnati (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, San Diego, Tennessee, Washington Ben Roethlisberger exploded last season with career bests in total touchdowns (34), passer rating (104.1) and rushing yards (204), so his value is at an all-time high. While none of his three intra-division opponents (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland) finished higher than 20th last season, Big Ben will face four teams that finished in the top 11 in Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee and the Giants. Overall, Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward will see little change in value based on the team's schedule.
Dallas Cowboys 266 points: Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, N.Y. Giants (2), Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington (2) Tony Romo will be one of the first five quarterbacks selected in drafts, but he will have some tough matchups against Green Bay, the Giants, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. However, Romo had some of his best numbers of last season against hardened pass defenses, so our research might do little more than keep him behind Peyton Manning among quarterbacks. Four starts against the AFC North, which outside of the Steelers couldn't stop the pass in 2007, bodes well for Romo, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten.
Seattle Seahawks 261 points: Arizona (2), Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Miami, New England, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, St. Louis (2), San Francisco (2), Tampa Bay, Washington Matt Hasselbeck has lost D.J. Hackett and could be without Deion Branch for part of next season. What's more, the Seahawks focused more attention on the run this offseason with the additions of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett to a backfield that still fields Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris. With fewer weapons in the current pass attack and a schedule that includes games against tough pass defenses like Green Bay, Miami, New England, the Jets, the Giants and Tampa Bay, Hasselbeck could struggle to reach his 2007 totals.
Miami Dolphins 258 points: Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo (2), Denver, Houston, Kansas City, New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle Few teams have a less attractive pass attack than Miami, which appears set to use the inexperienced John Beck as its No. 1 quarterback. He doesn't have a ton of reliable receivers, either, and matchups against Denver, Kansas City, New England, the Jets, Oakland and San Diego could mean a number of porous stat lines are in his future. These opponents also don't bode well for Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford, who make up the lone draftable wide receivers on the Dolphins' entire 53-man roster.
Cleveland Browns 244 points: Baltimore (2), Buffalo, Cincinnati (2), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington The Browns should have one of the better pass attacks in the NFL next season, as Derek Anderson will now have Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Donté Stallworth at his disposal. The one disadvantage is that outside of Buffalo, Houston and AFC North foes Baltimore and Cincinnati, he'll have eight starts against teams that finished in the upper half of the league against the pass last season. While the lot of Cleveland's offensive skill position players will be valuable, Anderson might be inconsistent at times.
Houston Texans 241 points: Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Indianapolis (2), Jacksonville (2), Miami, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2) Matt Schaub has the potential to become a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but he'll face a difficult slate in 2008. The Virginia product will be under center 10 times against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007, and he'll do it with what could be a questionable running game. Schaub does have a major asset in the form of Andre Johnson, who projects to be one of the top wideouts in fantasy football, but he might not be consistent enough to warrant more than a middle- to late-round selection.
New York Jets 239 points: Arizona, Buffalo (2), Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, Miami (2), New England (2), Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, Tennessee Whether it's Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens under center, the Jets quarterback could struggle to make an impact. The Men in Green face eight games against teams that finished in the top 10 in pass defense last season, not to mention a total of four against AFC East rivals Miami (4th) and New England (6th). There are some favorable matchups on the schedule, none more attractive than contests against Arizona, Buffalo and Cincinnati, but overall the Jets' top fantasy players could be unreliable in 2008.
Baltimore Ravens 228 points: Cincinnati (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Miami, N.Y. Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington Steve McNair, 35, is considered the current favorite to open the season atop the Ravens' depth chart. The veteran hasn't thrown for better than 16 touchdowns since 2003, and he'll have to face one of the league's harder pass schedules. Baltimore faces a few intra-division softies in Cincinnati and Cleveland, but nine of McNair's potential 16 starts come against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007. This won't hurt the stock of Todd Heap, but it could hinder McNair, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton.
Cincinnati Bengals 218 points: Baltimore (2), Cleveland (2), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee, Washington There aren't many teams with a trio like Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so a difficult slate of games won't hurt their stock. However, it should be noted that the Bengals face nine games against teams that finished 16th or better against the pass last season. That includes Indianapolis, Miami, the Giants, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, all of which finished in the top 10. Palmer, Johnson and Houshmandzadeh will fatten their numbers against bad teams, however, so all three will remain prominent.
Oakland Raiders 216 points: Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver (2), Houston, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, San Diego (2), Tampa Bay The Raiders did a lot to improve their pass attack this offseason with the additions of veteran wide receivers Javon Walker and Drew Carter, but it could be too much to ask for the inexperienced JaMarcus Russell to produce consistent stat lines. Two of his three AFC West opponents (Denver, Kansas City) finished in the top seven against the pass last season. Overall, Russell and his offensive receivers will have to hit the field for 10 games against defensive units that finished 15th or better against the pass in 2007.
New England Patriots 214 points: Arizona, Buffalo (2), Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle While it's true our research found that the Patriots face one of the most difficult pass schedules in the league, it won't be enough to keep Tom Brady and Randy Moss out of the first and second ruonds of all drafts. However, we should still note that the P-Men face 10 contests against teams that finished 15th or better against the pass last season. While neither has a chance to duplicate their incredible, record-breaking 2007 totals, Brady and Moss are all but exempt from the impact of difficult schedules.
Kansas City Chiefs 213 points: Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), San Diego (2), Tampa Bay, Tennessee Brodie Croyle won't strike fear into NFL defenses, so the fact that he faces the fourth-hardest pass schedule makes him even less attractive. The Chiefs will have six games in their own division against teams that ranked 14th or better against the pass last season, and games against the likes of New England, the Jets, Tampa Bay and Tennessee will be a detriment to Croyle's numbers. These matchups could also hurt Dwayne Bowe, who will face tough pass defenses with solid No. 1 cornerbacks quite a bit in his second season.
Buffalo Bills 202 points: Arizona, Cleveland, Denver, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami (2), New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle The Bills offense will be built around Marshawn Lynch and the run next season, but the passing game could struggle to complement him based on a schedule that includes nine games against top-10 pass defenses from 2007. While Trent Edwards and Lee Evans might find some success against Arizona, Cleveland, St. Louis and San Francisco, the negative matchups far outweigh the positive ones. These numbers won't devastate Edwards, who won't be taken in a lot of drafts, but it could mean another inconsistent season from Evans.
Denver Broncos 189 points: Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), San Diego (2), Tampa Bay Jay Cutler will be seen as a potential breakout candidate, but he has the second-hardest pass schedule in the league. He will face eight contests against teams that finished ninth or better against the pass last season, not to mention 11 games against pass defenses that ranked no worse than 15th. Brandon Marshall, who is recovering from a surgical procedure to repair his forearm, will remain a No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout but could have some rough weeks based on the difficult schedule and the lack of a solid complement.
San Diego Chargers 164 points: Atlanta, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver (2), Indianapolis, Kansas City (2), Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans, Oakland (2), Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay Philip Rivers showed a lot of touhgness in the 2007 postseason, as he battled a torn ACL to lead the Chargers into the AFC Championship Game. He faces another challenge headed into next season, however, as Rivers faces the hardest pass schedule in the NFL. The Bolts have an incredible 12 games against teams that ranked in the top 10 against the pass last season, so Rivers has his work cut out for him. The same holds true for Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, not to mention stud tight end Antonio Gates.
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