Andrew Garda
Moderator
After a week of chaos, the NFL seemed to regress back to whatever passes for normal as we finished up Week 3. As we enter Week 4, we’re starting to be able to pick out trends and locate value players to go along with our studs.
As always, members of the staff have put up our general lineups (which subscribers can check out here) and this article will give you an idea of what some of us are doing.
Staff Trends
Bortles & Newton
Surprisingly, only two quarterbacks showed up on the staff lists. But while Cam Newton is a guy who might tempt DFS players with ownership, Blake Bortles is more likely to throw them for a loop. The thing is, he shouldn’t. His matchup against the Indianapolis Colts is OK (the secondary is very banged up), he’s coming off of back-to-back two touchdown games and is effectively using his feet as well as his arm.
Overall, Bortles will likely be a low-ownership percentage and his $4700 price leaves you plenty of room for studs elsewhere.
Stud wide receivers in evidence
While a few staff members have a top-shelf running back (Hindery arguably has two with a Charles/Forte pairing), everyone is loaded up with wide receivers. Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham Jr, and Larry Fitzgerald are all in evidence.
These are pretty much all high-ownership guys, but that’s OK. In cash games you’re looking to make sure you don’t miss out on some money. If you decide to be a contrarian, you run the risk of getting left behind if your lineup misses on one or two guys.
Glaring Omissions
No Rodgers
I thought we’d see at least one Aaron Rodgers/Randall Cobb lineup, but nobody bit on Rodgers at all. That’s a bit surprising, though the Niners defense has given the Packers fits, and Rodgers is not cheap. You’d expect one owner to give it a shot. This speaks to the depth of value among quarterbacks – when you can expect good things from Bortles/Carr, why spend the extra money on Rodgers?
No Adrian Peterson
This is likely mostly a value thing, as Peterson is expensive, but it also could be concern over how the Denver Broncos are playing on defense. Sure, Peterson is Peterson, but this is one of those weeks where you can see the possibility of a down game. Every stud has them.
As with Rodgers, the value on a Karlos Williams or Latavius Murray gives you flexibility to spend elsewhere if you want, which the staff did – mostly at wide receiver.
Ultimately, if you are looking to differentiate your lineup but not miss out on the heavy production of Julio Jones or Larry Fitzgerald, these are the two positions most likely to give you it.
Diamonds in the Rough
Karlos Williams - $5400, Charles Clay - $2900
We’ve got a double-Bills (see what I did there?) situation here this week. With LeSean McCoy out, Karlos Williams is primed for a big day against a banged up Giants defense. The only thing that could hold him back is if the Bills throw – which head coach Rex Ryan probably won’t do a ton even though the Giants’ secondary is a mess.
You can take advantage of that mess with tight end Charles Clay, who has really connected with quarterback Tyrod Taylor. While the passing game isn’t as deadly as the ones the Packers or Patriots possess, it’s consistent and Clay has become a big part of it.
As always, members of the staff have put up our general lineups (which subscribers can check out here) and this article will give you an idea of what some of us are doing.
Staff Trends
Bortles & Newton
Surprisingly, only two quarterbacks showed up on the staff lists. But while Cam Newton is a guy who might tempt DFS players with ownership, Blake Bortles is more likely to throw them for a loop. The thing is, he shouldn’t. His matchup against the Indianapolis Colts is OK (the secondary is very banged up), he’s coming off of back-to-back two touchdown games and is effectively using his feet as well as his arm.
Overall, Bortles will likely be a low-ownership percentage and his $4700 price leaves you plenty of room for studs elsewhere.
Stud wide receivers in evidence
While a few staff members have a top-shelf running back (Hindery arguably has two with a Charles/Forte pairing), everyone is loaded up with wide receivers. Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham Jr, and Larry Fitzgerald are all in evidence.
These are pretty much all high-ownership guys, but that’s OK. In cash games you’re looking to make sure you don’t miss out on some money. If you decide to be a contrarian, you run the risk of getting left behind if your lineup misses on one or two guys.
Glaring Omissions
No Rodgers
I thought we’d see at least one Aaron Rodgers/Randall Cobb lineup, but nobody bit on Rodgers at all. That’s a bit surprising, though the Niners defense has given the Packers fits, and Rodgers is not cheap. You’d expect one owner to give it a shot. This speaks to the depth of value among quarterbacks – when you can expect good things from Bortles/Carr, why spend the extra money on Rodgers?
No Adrian Peterson
This is likely mostly a value thing, as Peterson is expensive, but it also could be concern over how the Denver Broncos are playing on defense. Sure, Peterson is Peterson, but this is one of those weeks where you can see the possibility of a down game. Every stud has them.
As with Rodgers, the value on a Karlos Williams or Latavius Murray gives you flexibility to spend elsewhere if you want, which the staff did – mostly at wide receiver.
Ultimately, if you are looking to differentiate your lineup but not miss out on the heavy production of Julio Jones or Larry Fitzgerald, these are the two positions most likely to give you it.
Diamonds in the Rough
Karlos Williams - $5400, Charles Clay - $2900
We’ve got a double-Bills (see what I did there?) situation here this week. With LeSean McCoy out, Karlos Williams is primed for a big day against a banged up Giants defense. The only thing that could hold him back is if the Bills throw – which head coach Rex Ryan probably won’t do a ton even though the Giants’ secondary is a mess.
You can take advantage of that mess with tight end Charles Clay, who has really connected with quarterback Tyrod Taylor. While the passing game isn’t as deadly as the ones the Packers or Patriots possess, it’s consistent and Clay has become a big part of it.
