FBG FFPC MOCK PART DEUX (1 Viewer)

[footballman_696969]

I created another mock draft on antsports.com. You will have 8 hours to make each selection. Ignore the scoring system and line up requirements on the league page. We will be using FFPC rules.

*Please do not sign up if you don't think you will be able to make your draft selections. We had four people time out in the other draft. Remember you can make a pre-draft list if you feel you are going to be away from the computer for 8+ hours.

The starting lineups will consists of: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex Players (RB, WR or TE), 1 PK. 1 TeamDefense/Special Team

Passing:

20 yards passing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 20. Example: 275 passing yards = 13.75 fantasy points)

Passing TD = 4 points

Interception thrown = Minus one point (-1).

2-point conversion = 2 points

Rushing:

10 yards rushing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 10. Example 126 rushing yards= 12.6 fantasy points)

Rushing TD = 6 points

2-point conversion = 2 points

Receiving:

10 yards rushing = 1 point (Divide total yards by 10. Example: 93 receiving yards = 9.3 fantasy points)

Receiving TD = 6 points

1 point per Reception for RB, WR, QB, K

1.5 points per Reception for TEs

2-point conversion = 2 points

You can signup HERE

The league is called FBG FFPC Mock Draft 2

The password to join is joebryant

We can use this thread to analyse draft picks and draft strategies.

 

[Jersey Jammer]

Just signed up and took the 12th slot. 9 more players are needed.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

In. Half filled.

 

[footballman_696969]

5 spots left

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Signed up as the 8th team.

 

[Golfjim]

Golfjim is in the 5th slot.

Could I ask a favor? Would ALL of you treat this as a true FBGs draft. That means taking a Def and a PK when you would ordinarily take them. I suspect all of us would like to get a handle on when players/defs are taken.

Thanks

 

[footballman_696969]

Golfjim is in the 5th slot.Could I ask a favor? Would ALL of you treat this as a true FBGs draft. That means taking a Def and a PK when you would ordinarily take them. I suspect all of us would like to get a handle on when players/defs are taken.Thanks

I made this draft 20 rounds.

 

[jhexel]

In.

 

[TheJewru]

I am in , one spot left.

 

[footballman_696969]

Ahhh so nice to have a top pick this year.. You can get a stud RB and I don't see a huge difference in value between the WRs taken at the beginning of the second and the end of the second round.

 

[Bonfire]

Post a link to the draft pls, not just search titles.

 

[footballman_696969]

Post a link to the draft pls, not just search titles.

Draft In Progress

 

[flc735]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.

also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevant

what kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

 

[49er fan]

i put the settings in FBG VBD Excel app, and Graham and Gronk are ranked 25 and 32 respectively...i just double checked my inputs and they are correct...anyone else using the app have different rankings?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevantwhat kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

I passed on him in the 1.11 and 2.02. I had Graham as my #6 overall, but am not as high on Gronk. I considered him at 2.02, but don't feel he will live up to his lofty production from last year. Part of it is the addition of Lloyd. I also believe the RBs will step up a bit this year. I also wanted two strong RBs and don't feel there will be much there in the 3rd and onward that I could depend on as a weekly starter.

 

[Jersey Jammer]

There's a lot more to drafting than "best available". If best available is the right approach 10 QBs would go in the first round, since 10 went over 300 points last year. You need to look at position scarcity, standard deviation within each position and your projected points when you total your picks for the next couple rounds, not to just look at the guy that's got the highest projected points at that point in the draft.

 

[49er fan]

that's what the vbd app does and they were ranked 25 and 32

 

[Jersey Jammer]

Yes, I understand VBD. It's understandable that they both go in the 2nd round, but not because of the argument made by FLC, who essentially said "he'll score a lot of points..." Yes he will, but so will many TEs you can get in later rounds, allowing you to stock up on more scarce positions.

 

[Golfjim]

WTF. What is difficult to understand about an 8 hour time limit and pre-drafting? I can't believe this.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Apologies for the wait- I'm new to the antsports mock draft site- didn't anticipate people finishing off their picks at the turn so quickly.

In any case, I did make my pick with over 3 and a half hours to spare.

 

[Golfjim]

There's no difference in 1 site to another. Look, I'm not pushing. All I'm saying is look at the progress every once in awhile and when it says you're up in 5, 6, 7 picks, than PRE-DRAFT. It's really pretty simple.

 

[flc735]

There's a lot more to drafting than "best available". If best available is the right approach 10 QBs would go in the first round, since 10 went over 300 points last year. You need to look at position scarcity, standard deviation within each position and your projected points when you total your picks for the next couple rounds, not to just look at the guy that's got the highest projected points at that point in the draft.

2 flex changes everything. its the reason qb's are not the first 12 picks in a start 1 qb league. if you added 2 qb flex, they would/should be 10 of the first 12 picks.

 

[flc735]

Yes, I understand VBD. It's understandable that they both go in the 2nd round, but not because of the argument made by FLC, who essentially said "he'll score a lot of points..." Yes he will, but so will many TEs you can get in later rounds, allowing you to stock up on more scarce positions.

no, that's not "essentially what i said". you left out the 2 flex and 1.5 ppr, which is my argumentyour lumping together gates/hernandez with gronk/grahamthere is a 100 point difference between those guys, which is the same difference between rice and sjax, or calvin and bowethere will be so many dwayne bowes and steven jacksons that you can get in the later rounds as well

 

[jhexel]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevantwhat kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

Certainly glad they did. Although, I'll be paying for it at RB going QB/TE in my first 2 rounds. Can only hope that he hits 80% of his '11 production - at that he will be a shoe-in top 2 TE in the 1.5 PPR format.

 

[TheJewru]

This is great practice.

3.01 Midgets With Widgets A. Bradshaw RB NYG

3.02 Crunch This R. White WR ATL

3.03 footballman A. Green WR CIN

3.04 The Jewru J. Jones WR ATL

These 4 were on my predraft list. I feel Roddy is best choice if you are gunning for your particular league title and Green and Julio are more swing for the grand prize type of picks.

 

[footballman_696969]

Ahhh so nice to have a top pick this year.. You can get a stud RB and I don't see a huge difference in value between the WRs taken at the beginning of the second and the end of the second round.

Wasnt expecting Brady to fall to me in the 2nd and then still get a top WR in the 3rd. I love my team so far. The sky is the limit for AJ Green this year. Brady and McCoy should be in the running for top players at their position.

 

[jhexel]

3.05 Golfjim Peterson, Adrian RB MIN I'll take a chance at 3:05

3.06 JIMSANITY Finley, Jermichael TE GBP

3.07 Modog814 Jackson, Fred RB BUF

3.08 M1LLZ Turner, Michael RB ATL

3.09 Placeholder Marshall, Brandon WR CHI

3.10 jhexel Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG

3.11 Ketamine Dreams Jennings, Greg WR GBP

Was targeting ADP at 3.10.

 

[Modog814]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevantwhat kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

I had the 1.07 pick and really wanted to land Graham there. I ended up taking Fitzgerald (albeit reluctantly as I didn't really like anyone else at that spot). The reason I passed on Gronk there (and honestly probably would have passed on him at the 2.6 spot too) is that 1) he's coming of a major ankle surgery, 2) He had a high amount of TD's last year, which are a) very hard to predict, b) very hard to duplicate a year like last year and c) if you look he only had 2 more RZ targets than Hernandez in 2 more games. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hernandez have more TD's than him this year. 3) I think the NE passing game is a mess to predict as I can see the distribution between Welker/Gronk/Hernandez/Lloyd/others going so many different ways that I'm just not comfortable taking any of them with such a high pick.In the end, I still think Gronk puts up solid numbers but think you're drafting him too close to his ceiling and under one or two of these Patriot players I feel like there is a trap door to their floor, and I don't want to play Russian Roulette.

 

[TwinTurbo]

DeMarco Murray over Gronk is insane in this format.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I would've taken Gronkowski if he had fallen to me at 2.04. I didn't want to take him in the first round for most of the reasons listed above (too many targets in New England, ankle surgery).

On whether his 18 total TDs is sustainable: the guy is simply uncoverable in the red zone. Even while splitting time with Alge Crumplar and Hernandez in his rookie year Gronkowski still managed double digit TDs. As somebody pointed out earlier, both Gronk and Hernandez get targeted frequently in the red zone and I don't expect that to change. When a player's value is heavily fueled by touchdowns I tend to avoid them in the following year but I think gronkowski is a special kind of talent around the end zone- I believe he could come reasonably close to matching his TD total from last year.

 

[cvnpoka]

i think shooting for the moon with guys like mcfadden is proper in these things.

 

[Modog814]

i think shooting for the moon with guys like mcfadden is proper in these things.

I think you're correct. I think 2 of the most important things in this contest are:1) You can't worry about being wrong. If you think McFadden is a top 3 player you got to take him. Deal with a "chance" of injury if it happens later. You not only have to win your league, you're team has to be better than all the other league winners. You can't get that by playing safe.2) You only get 11 regular season games, so you can't afford to take someone who is "only out for the first week or 2" (with a starter draft pick). IMO, if Lynch get's any suspension at all, it makes him undraftable (unless he happens to slide all the way to the 10th round).

 

[TheJewru]

Shooting for the moon has to be the way to go. The talent and upside is crucial in all picks as far as I am concerned. As far as taking Demarco Murray over Gronk. I personally have no problem with. Murray is in a situation where a top 5 finish is certainly possible. You can start 4 backs. If it was single flex or no flex taking Gronk in 1.5 PPR makes a hell of lot more sense.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Waiting on RB is a dangerous game this year- I'll be interested in seeing who jimsanity ends up with.

 

[Modog814]

Shooting for the moon has to be the way to go. The talent and upside is crucial in all picks as far as I am concerned. As far as taking Demarco Murray over Gronk. I personally have no problem with. Murray is in a situation where a top 5 finish is certainly possible. You can start 4 backs. If it was single flex or no flex taking Gronk in 1.5 PPR makes a hell of lot more sense.

I don't necessarily have a problem with it either, but I think it largely depends on how you see Murray. To me, I'd never take Murray over Gronk as I don't personnally see top 5 with Murray. But I could definitely see someone thinking that and making that choice. i don't think it's absurd.

 

[Modog814]

Waiting on RB is a dangerous game this year- I'll be interested in seeing who jimsanity ends up with.

Yeah, he's got an interesting team. Maybe he could shed some light on his strategy. I thought Finley was a reach in the 3rd, especially considering her already had Graham and almost certainly gotten him in the 4th.

 

[jimmy b]

Waiting on RB is a dangerous game this year- I'll be interested in seeing who jimsanity ends up with.

Yeah, he's got an interesting team. Maybe he could shed some light on his strategy. I thought Finley was a reach in the 3rd, especially considering her already had Graham and almost certainly gotten him in the 4th.

Hey guys....Good luck in 2012 all.My plan all along is to hook up the Graham/Brees combo and let the chips fall where they may.I think Brees will pretty much match his numbers from last year and belive it or not, i think Grahamis just hitting his stride and will improve about 10/15% on his stats from last season.I may have jumped the gun on J. Finley, but i firmly believe in getting 2 out of the 5/6 elite TE's in this format.I also think he will outperform Gronk this season. (that's just my opinion)As far as Bryant goes, i think he's ready to take the next step into the upper echelon of WR's (Not CJ and AJ status) but a jump none the less.As far as Bowie, i'll see how he shakes out over the next 6 weeks, this spot can be filled by any number of WR's whoi think will be availible there.(Harvin, Britt, Maclin,Decker, etc etc etc)Rounds 6-9 wil be RB-RB-RB-RB and hope one sticks.Well, that's my strategy, run with it, trash it, blow it up. It is what it is.That's my thinking this week, next week it will probably be something else.Thanks for the draft, it's good to shake the rust off.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

DeMarco Murray over Gronk is insane in this format.

I don't disagree, but would add to what I say above by emphasizing that I'm high on Murray this year. His injury was a break, not a ligament, and is fully healed. He absolutely went off last year and I think he'll hold off Jones. The offense has strengthened it's O line and I believe Murray is in for a huge year. I understand about Gronk, and part of me wanted to pull the trigger, but I went over my concerns for him above....

 

[flc735]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevantwhat kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

I had the 1.07 pick and really wanted to land Graham there. I ended up taking Fitzgerald (albeit reluctantly as I didn't really like anyone else at that spot). The reason I passed on Gronk there (and honestly probably would have passed on him at the 2.6 spot too) is that 1) he's coming of a major ankle surgery, 2) He had a high amount of TD's last year, which are a) very hard to predict, b) very hard to duplicate a year like last year and c) if you look he only had 2 more RZ targets than Hernandez in 2 more games. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hernandez have more TD's than him this year. 3) I think the NE passing game is a mess to predict as I can see the distribution between Welker/Gronk/Hernandez/Lloyd/others going so many different ways that I'm just not comfortable taking any of them with such a high pick.In the end, I still think Gronk puts up solid numbers but think you're drafting him too close to his ceiling and under one or two of these Patriot players I feel like there is a trap door to their floor, and I don't want to play Russian Roulette.

i understand but you are also drafting mccoy, foster, rice, rodgers and calvin very close to their ceilings. i'd say mathews, who will go before gronk/graham in most drafts is a bigger risk than gronk because of his injury history. you may disagree but they are at least close, right? and with those two players riskiness being so close, i think the adp gap between the two,1.5 range vs 2.2 range, is unreasonably large.

 

[Golfjim]

So, Jimmy B, you are doing what Waldman calls "Upsidedown Drafting". I'm interested to see how it works out.

I thoughty Graham was a GREAT pick.

I have some real concerns about Gronk, however. I think that Modog hit it right on the head-too many mouths to feed.

 

[TwinTurbo]

DeMarco Murray over Gronk is insane in this format.

I don't disagree, but would add to what I say above by emphasizing that I'm high on Murray this year. His injury was a break, not a ligament, and is fully healed. He absolutely went off last year and I think he'll hold off Jones. The offense has strengthened it's O line and I believe Murray is in for a huge year. I understand about Gronk, and part of me wanted to pull the trigger, but I went over my concerns for him above....

I'm not high on Murray this year. And other than Richardson, I'm not high on any of the RBs with an ADP in the second round. But I've drafted several teams in the FFPC and there's no question you take a chance by drafting a TE in the first couple of rounds. It really didn't work out for anyone that did it last year. But Gronk just dominated last year like no other TE in the history of the game. Graham was not far behind. I think by landing McFadden in Round 1, you have the luxury of taking a shot at Gronk in Round 2. Your 3/4 picks of Jennings and Wallace were also sick. I like your team so far and Owen Daniels is not a bad consolation prize in the 8th round.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

So, Jimmy B, you are doing what Waldman calls "Upsidedown Drafting". I'm interested to see how it works out.I thoughty Graham was a GREAT pick.I have some real concerns about Gronk, however. I think that Modog hit it right on the head-too many mouths to feed.

I tried upside down drafting last year in one of my leagues and an elite WR corps carried me to the championship- I struggled heavily at the RB position all year though. Ended up starting Ingram and JStew most weeks until I traded for Ryan Mathews at the end of the year. I anticipate you might run into the same problems while starting Starks and McGahee but between Brees, Graham, and Finley your RBs might be irrelevant.

 

[cvnpoka]

Shooting for the moon has to be the way to go. The talent and upside is crucial in all picks as far as I am concerned. As far as taking Demarco Murray over Gronk. I personally have no problem with. Murray is in a situation where a top 5 finish is certainly possible. You can start 4 backs. If it was single flex or no flex taking Gronk in 1.5 PPR makes a hell of lot more sense.

ya, due to the 2flex lineup, its pretty much down to who you predict to score more points between murray and gronk. that ignores positional scarcity but i am not sure its a big deal. fbg has gronk projected at 290 to 315 fpts. this would give him more than all but 3-5 rbs. murray is projected at 210 to 230. its a lot to overcome but not outlandish.

 

[Modog814]

could some of you explain why you passed on gronk until the 2.3? i think that's a huge mistake in this format. with 1.5 ppr te, he was the highest scoring non qb last year. sure, he has risk and probably won't repeat those numbers, but so do dmac, murray, mjd, forte and rich.also, it's 2 flex so that makes positions less relevantwhat kind of numbers are you expecting richardson to put up that he will outscore gronk, for example

I had the 1.07 pick and really wanted to land Graham there. I ended up taking Fitzgerald (albeit reluctantly as I didn't really like anyone else at that spot). The reason I passed on Gronk there (and honestly probably would have passed on him at the 2.6 spot too) is that 1) he's coming of a major ankle surgery, 2) He had a high amount of TD's last year, which are a) very hard to predict, b) very hard to duplicate a year like last year and c) if you look he only had 2 more RZ targets than Hernandez in 2 more games. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hernandez have more TD's than him this year. 3) I think the NE passing game is a mess to predict as I can see the distribution between Welker/Gronk/Hernandez/Lloyd/others going so many different ways that I'm just not comfortable taking any of them with such a high pick.In the end, I still think Gronk puts up solid numbers but think you're drafting him too close to his ceiling and under one or two of these Patriot players I feel like there is a trap door to their floor, and I don't want to play Russian Roulette.

i understand but you are also drafting mccoy, foster, rice, rodgers and calvin very close to their ceilings. i'd say mathews, who will go before gronk/graham in most drafts is a bigger risk than gronk because of his injury history. you may disagree but they are at least close, right? and with those two players riskiness being so close, i think the adp gap between the two,1.5 range vs 2.2 range, is unreasonably large.

Yes, you're correct in saying that pretty much any first round pick you're drafting close to their ceilings. The difference is I don't believe that Foster/Rice's value are tied as much to their TD production as Gronk is, and their RZ opportunities are reasonably secure. While Gronk will certainly get his share of targets, the pressence of Hernandez and Welker (both whom had similar RZ targets last year) force Gronk to continue converting them at incredibly high rate (he's converted 21 of 43 targets in the first 2 years). A slight drop in that production (or RZ opps) and Gronk could easily move from a top2 TE to Top5. Not terrible, but not what you want from a high 2nd pick, especially when you can get a top 5 TE 2 or 3 rounds later. As an aside, I wouldn't draft McCoy at 3 as I think that's too high a price. I agree that Mathews is, while i really like him this year, too high at 5, considering he's still largely unproven. As you point out, why is he at 5 while McFadden is at 10? And for Graham, I have him ranked at 3 in this format just behind Rice and Foster.

 

[Modog814]

So, Jimmy B, you are doing what Waldman calls "Upsidedown Drafting". I'm interested to see how it works out.I thoughty Graham was a GREAT pick.I have some real concerns about Gronk, however. I think that Modog hit it right on the head-too many mouths to feed.

I'm interested too. I tried this last year in the FPC with some miserable results. But I think it's mostly because I missed on most of the RB selections and my #1 TE was Gates who got injured.

 

[49er fan]

So, Jimmy B, you are doing what Waldman calls "Upsidedown Drafting". I'm interested to see how it works out.I thoughty Graham was a GREAT pick.I have some real concerns about Gronk, however. I think that Modog hit it right on the head-too many mouths to feed.

I'm interested too. I tried this last year in the FPC with some miserable results. But I think it's mostly because I missed on most of the RB selections and my #1 TE was Gates who got injured.

I got burned by it last year as well...first 8 picks drafting 7th in a 12 team ppr, 15 rounds: 1. A Johnson (inj)2. R White 3. Gates (inj)4. Blount (sucked)5. Ingram (1st year bust, but jury still out?)6. Schaub (inj)7. Benson (decent for 7th round)8. BGE (good TD totals, but thats it...ok for 8th round)2 of the guys I built my upside-down draft around (AJ and Gates) had injuries that really hurt my season, but my RBs who I thought could make up for my early non-RB picks were complete busts...i was left scrambling for RBs for most of the season...i ended up getting Spiller but by that time my playoff hopes were thin...it also didn't help that there is a 20 move max, so i had to be judicious about adding/dropping RBs...I hate the move max.

 

[Modog814]

So, Jimmy B, you are doing what Waldman calls "Upsidedown Drafting". I'm interested to see how it works out.I thoughty Graham was a GREAT pick.I have some real concerns about Gronk, however. I think that Modog hit it right on the head-too many mouths to feed.

I'm interested too. I tried this last year in the FPC with some miserable results. But I think it's mostly because I missed on most of the RB selections and my #1 TE was Gates who got injured.

I got burned by it last year as well...first 8 picks drafting 7th in a 12 team ppr, 15 rounds: 1. A Johnson (inj)2. R White 3. Gates (inj)4. Blount (sucked)5. Ingram (1st year bust, but jury still out?)6. Schaub (inj)7. Benson (decent for 7th round)8. BGE (good TD totals, but thats it...ok for 8th round)2 of the guys I built my upside-down draft around (AJ and Gates) had injuries that really hurt my season, but my RBs who I thought could make up for my early non-RB picks were complete busts...i was left scrambling for RBs for most of the season...i ended up getting Spiller but by that time my playoff hopes were thin...it also didn't help that there is a 20 move max, so i had to be judicious about adding/dropping RBs...I hate the move max.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I think this is a bad strategy for this particular format. I think the whole premise of the upside down strategy is that valuable RB's emerge from the later rounds or the FA pool. But with only 11 regular season games you can't afford to wait around for those guys to emerge.

 

[cvnpoka]

last year was a great year to do upside down drafting as mathews, fjax, sproles, bush, tolbert and lynch were available. even wells and hightower provided early production. like any draft strategy, it works if you nail your picks.

fwiw, last year i liked a lot of those guys mentioned and aimed for them. this year however, it does indeed seem slim pickings for rbs outside of the 3rd round while there is wr talent galore into the 7th.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Wow I was really expecting Randy Moss or Greg Olsen to fall back down to me. Certainly wasn't expecting Jimsanity to take Moss, although it makes perfect sense to me- I think he's far more valuable than any RB on the board.

 

[Golfjim]

I think Randy Moss is the GREATEST WR to ever play the game and I go all the way back to Pete Pihos of the Eagles (bet most of you don't know him). The problem has always been with Randy is, "Did he come to play?" And, how many plays are you going to get? Also, is Smith good enough to get the ball to him enough. I think Moss is a VERY RISKY pick.