Sgt. Ryan
Footballguy
Let me give you some advice, learn how to handle negative feedback, without being defensive. You get paid to give your opinion whether I, or anyone else here agrees with it. I just dont get why you felt the need to write a half page narrative defending yourself. If you were secure with your research and the time you put into this, I dont think you would have addressed this in this way, but rather say lets revisit at seasons end. Personally I think my rankings would school yours in accuracy, but I wouldnt expect you to agree with me.Hello everyone,
Let me answer some of your questions. For starters the IDP projections ARE one man's opinion and not a collective. It would be very tough to collect and sort projections by several different guys so I got picked to stick my neck out for you guys to rip on :X
Keep in mind its only May. A lot can happen between now and the beginning of the season. Also keep in mind that these are PROJECTIONS and not rankings. There is a HUGE difference. Some projections come with a lot of confidence and others admittedly seem like a bit of a stretch but I don't just stick numbers beside a guy for no reason. After all its the "out of the ordinary" stuff everyone is lookng for isn't it? The whole point here is to find sleepers etc. Heck everyone knows Ray Lewis is an animal. Some of the comments in this thread remind me of those from a couple of years back when I projected Andra Davis as a top 15 LB while Barry Gardner was still listed as the starter. You guys need to look beyond the current depth charts. I go much deeper in my consideration that just last years stats.
Rapture, you can't have it both ways. In one reply you claim that we just copy last years depth charts and in another you want to burn us at the stake for deviating from what last years numbers would suggest. You should check out a guys track record before being so critical. Instead of blurting out how ridicules you think a projection is, maybe you should explore the reasoning first. You obviously have a lot of knowledge but just because someone sees something a little different than you, don't assume they are wrong. A wise man once told me "one should always coat his words with honey for you never know when you may be called upon to eat them".
So now on to the answers. I project Mitchell so highly because next to Dansby he is the team's most talented linebacker AND he is playing in the most fantasy productive position of MLB. It wasn't long ago when a very average Ronald McKinnon was putting up nearly 100 solo tackles every year from that spot. Orlando Huff is a very average player who I don't believe has a sniff of a shot at starting and if Gerald Hayes was the answer wouldn't he have emerged as the starter last year? He's had his shot and didn't measure up. He's not a Dennis Green player and I don't believe he will amount to much this season unless there are injuries. You can't always look at where a guy was drafted to determine what his chances of success are. Get over the fact that Mitchell was a 5th round pick, he was a steal.
Kailee Wong VS Morlon Greenwood. Both Sharper and Foreman posted excellent tackle numbers in that defense. I project Wong higher based on history and what I think of the player more than what position he is PENCILED in at. Wong played MLB for the Vikings at one point putting up 84 and 83 solo tackles in consecutive years ('00 & '01). He was a pretty solid fantasy option at that point and is a good football player. Greenwood's career high is just 66 tackles and that came last year when the Dolphins were horrible. I simply am not at all impressed with the guy. Comparing him to Sharper? That's like calling a VW Beetle a Porsche. I also believe that Wong will be the passing down LB which will make all the difference in the world. Remember that Sharper and Foreman both made a lot of tackles but Sharper was so much better than Foreman because of all the big plays. Wong can rush the passer while Greenwood has 3 career sacks...
Gibril Wilson VS Shaun Williams. Yes Williams will be the starter at SS and "should" be more productive, but the guys hasn't played a full season since '02 and only put up 66 tackles then because he played gimpy half the season. I believe he has lost a step. Wilson was nothing short of impressive in his short stint last season. My projections are based on the probability that Williams will not play a full schedule and even if he does I believe Wilson could be more productive. While SS generally produces more tackles this is not written in stone. There have been exceptions in the past.
Guys I'll say again its only the end of May and this is the first run on the projections. As the season gets closer and I see that some of my expectations may not happen, there will be adjustments made and plenty of updates to come. As to the comment " If someone took this cheatsheet with them come draft day, it would be deadly". I would put my projections up against anyone who is doing them at the same time. If you take my May projections to your draft in August.. well that might be a problem
Those of you who keep calling these projections "rankings" need to take a look at the actual cheat sheet I made up. While I use the projections as a guideline, the cheat better represents the amount of confidence I have in some of the numbers as well as the level of consistency of the players.
Hope this clarifies some of the issues for everyone. I make mistakes like everyone else but there is always reason behind everything I put out there. If you want to know more about my train of thought look for my "Eyes of the Guru" report that will be out later in the summer. I get pretty extensive in my positional breakdowns.
Best of luck to everyone,
Reb
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