What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

FBG IDP Rankings (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
For those of you who don't frequent the Pool, our first 2006 Overall rookie IDP and redraft IDP rankings have been posted to the front page of the site.

Overall dynasty rankings are being updated to include rookies as well.

Take a look.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wood has some real headscratchers.

Also when I try to sort on Jene it doesn't sort correctly.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Injury or not, Rodney Harrison the #35 DB?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Based on this note from the Boston Herald this weekend, which suggests Harrison may not be ready until October, I dropped him out of my top 15. Leg and back injuries are big flags for me, especially in older players.If he's healthy enough to return to the starting lineup, he'll very likely move into my top ten. But if I'm drafting today, I think it's a big risk to take him ahead of any DB who has established starting quality numbers in the past. As my 4th DB with big upside, sure, but I can't justify taking him as a starter yet.

THIRD SAFETY: Eugene Wilson is a given as an opening-day starter, even though he’s coming off a bad year. Rodney Harrison will join him as soon as he’s fully recovered from his knee injury, which may not be until October. The primary backup job is wide open, as is a possible starting spot in September.

Veteran defensive back Artrell Hawkins emerged as a decent option last year, so he’ll be in the mix. You have to believe that the coaches want to see one of the youngsters, James Sanders and/or Guss Scott, distinguish themselves. They like Sanders and Scott has been injury-prone. The Pats are in big trouble if they’re planning to use Tebucky Jones in the regular defense.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

 
Injury or not, Rodney Harrison the #35 DB?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Based on this note from the Boston Herald this weekend, which suggests Harrison may not be ready until October, I dropped him out of my top 15. Leg and back injuries are big flags for me, especially in older players.If he's healthy enough to return to the starting lineup, he'll very likely move into my top ten. But if I'm drafting today, I think it's a big risk to take him ahead of any DB who has established starting quality numbers in the past. As my 4th DB with big upside, sure, but I can't justify taking him as a starter yet.

THIRD SAFETY: Eugene Wilson is a given as an opening-day starter, even though he’s coming off a bad year. Rodney Harrison will join him as soon as he’s fully recovered from his knee injury, which may not be until October. The primary backup job is wide open, as is a possible starting spot in September.

Veteran defensive back Artrell Hawkins emerged as a decent option last year, so he’ll be in the mix. You have to believe that the coaches want to see one of the youngsters, James Sanders and/or Guss Scott, distinguish themselves. They like Sanders and Scott has been injury-prone. The Pats are in big trouble if they’re planning to use Tebucky Jones in the regular defense.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I do see your point, and I'd most likely feel the same way going on that information. However, everything I've read has Harrison on pace to be ready to start the season. I actually read that very piece you posted over the weekend, and I think what they mean is that there is a chance he won't be ready until October, but right now, it's looking like he most likely will be ready to start the season.
 
Injury or not, Rodney Harrison the #35 DB?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Based on this note from the Boston Herald this weekend, which suggests Harrison may not be ready until October, I dropped him out of my top 15. Leg and back injuries are big flags for me, especially in older players.If he's healthy enough to return to the starting lineup, he'll very likely move into my top ten. But if I'm drafting today, I think it's a big risk to take him ahead of any DB who has established starting quality numbers in the past. As my 4th DB with big upside, sure, but I can't justify taking him as a starter yet.

THIRD SAFETY: Eugene Wilson is a given as an opening-day starter, even though he’s coming off a bad year. Rodney Harrison will join him as soon as he’s fully recovered from his knee injury, which may not be until October. The primary backup job is wide open, as is a possible starting spot in September.

Veteran defensive back Artrell Hawkins emerged as a decent option last year, so he’ll be in the mix. You have to believe that the coaches want to see one of the youngsters, James Sanders and/or Guss Scott, distinguish themselves. They like Sanders and Scott has been injury-prone. The Pats are in big trouble if they’re planning to use Tebucky Jones in the regular defense.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I do see your point, and I'd most likely feel the same way going on that information. However, everything I've read has Harrison on pace to be ready to start the season. I actually read that very piece you posted over the weekend, and I think what they mean is that there is a chance he won't be ready until October, but right now, it's looking like he most likely will be ready to start the season.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Harrison is on pace to be close to 100% by the end of training camp. Even a 80% Harrison is top 5 at his position, the way the Pats use him in the box.
 
Injury or not, Rodney Harrison the #35 DB?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Based on this note from the Boston Herald this weekend, which suggests Harrison may not be ready until October, I dropped him out of my top 15. Leg and back injuries are big flags for me, especially in older players.If he's healthy enough to return to the starting lineup, he'll very likely move into my top ten. But if I'm drafting today, I think it's a big risk to take him ahead of any DB who has established starting quality numbers in the past. As my 4th DB with big upside, sure, but I can't justify taking him as a starter yet.

THIRD SAFETY: Eugene Wilson is a given as an opening-day starter, even though he’s coming off a bad year. Rodney Harrison will join him as soon as he’s fully recovered from his knee injury, which may not be until October. The primary backup job is wide open, as is a possible starting spot in September.

Veteran defensive back Artrell Hawkins emerged as a decent option last year, so he’ll be in the mix. You have to believe that the coaches want to see one of the youngsters, James Sanders and/or Guss Scott, distinguish themselves. They like Sanders and Scott has been injury-prone. The Pats are in big trouble if they’re planning to use Tebucky Jones in the regular defense.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I do see your point, and I'd most likely feel the same way going on that information. However, everything I've read has Harrison on pace to be ready to start the season. I actually read that very piece you posted over the weekend, and I think what they mean is that there is a chance he won't be ready until October, but right now, it's looking like he most likely will be ready to start the season.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Harrison is on pace to be close to 100% by the end of training camp. Even a 80% Harrison is top 5 at his position, the way the Pats use him in the box.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
A 33.5 year old coming off of a 3 game season.I'll pass.

I've been a big Rodney Harrison fan, and he could easily prove me wrong, but even at 100% there would be too much risk involved.

 
I dont know about that. A 75% Rodney Harrison in that defensive backfield sure seems like a better situation than most Dbs at 100%. I think I might gamble on Harrison, and try and get some hidden gems later as insurance.

 
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There have been a lot of LOOOONG hours over the past couple of weeks. Obviously not listing Quarles is an oversite but I hardly think leaving a number 40 something linebacker off the list in an early May ranking qualifies as "horrific oversites" Thanks for pointing it out though. Now that I have the projections project under control I can/will go back and spend a little more time on my rankings. I think if you look a little closer you'll see that I don't have Bullock ahead of Vilma on MY overall rankings. He is listed first on the concensus overall rankings.

As for Vilma, I have him as a top 3 LB and the move to the 3-4 won't scare me off. When the Ravens first went to the 3-4 people said it would knock Ray Lewis way down. I think he fell all the way to something like 112 solo tackles that year ;)

 
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There have been a lot of LOOOONG hours over the past couple of weeks. Obviously not listing Quarles is an oversite but I hardly think leaving a number 40 something linebacker off the list in an early May ranking qualifies as "horrific oversites" Thanks for pointing it out though. Now that I have the projections project under control I can/will go back and spend a little more time on my rankings. I think if you look a little closer you'll see that I don't have Bullock ahead of Vilma on MY overall rankings. He is listed first on the concensus overall rankings.

As for Vilma, I have him as a top 3 LB and the move to the 3-4 won't scare me off. When the Ravens first went to the 3-4 people said it would knock Ray Lewis way down. I think he fell all the way to something like 112 solo tackles that year ;)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My apology, I should have made that singular and said "oversight".... but Quarles was the #7 LB and #27 scorer OVERALL in my IDP league last year. I see no reason for him to fall out of the top ten this year, either.... so I'm not sure what you mean by the "number 40" but I also noticed that Quarles is ranked at a lowly #34 in the FBG redraft rankins for LB's...http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=lb&howrecent=7

Which I just can't understand. I haven't heard anything about Ruud displacing him at the MLB spot. Maybe you guys have?

My comment about Vilma vs. Bulluck was directed at the overall consensus ranking, not yours. I see now that Bulluck is now #1 on both lists.... it wasn't yesterday, unless I was looking at something else, which is a possibilty. I also didn't say YOU dropped Vilma out of the top five, I have dropped him to sixth in my own rankings.

I am curious to ask the entire staff why Quarles would be ranked so low. There has to be some reason behind such a drop from last year's performance to such lowly expectations this year.

Here is a link to the league I have Quarles in.... I just can't see him going from 7 to 34......

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2006...Y=points&TEAM=*

 
For me it is an age and potential Ruud thing. I traded him away this off season for a RB2 that I needed more...

For redraft I agree he should still be in the LB2/LB3 range if he does falter.

 
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There have been a lot of LOOOONG hours over the past couple of weeks. Obviously not listing Quarles is an oversite but I hardly think leaving a number 40 something linebacker off the list in an early May ranking qualifies as "horrific oversites" Thanks for pointing it out though. Now that I have the projections project under control I can/will go back and spend a little more time on my rankings. I think if you look a little closer you'll see that I don't have Bullock ahead of Vilma on MY overall rankings. He is listed first on the concensus overall rankings.

As for Vilma, I have him as a top 3 LB and the move to the 3-4 won't scare me off. When the Ravens first went to the 3-4 people said it would knock Ray Lewis way down. I think he fell all the way to something like 112 solo tackles that year ;)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My apology, I should have made that singular and said "oversight".... but Quarles was the #7 LB and #27 scorer OVERALL in my IDP league last year. I see no reason for him to fall out of the top ten this year, either.... so I'm not sure what you mean by the "number 40" but I also noticed that Quarles is ranked at a lowly #34 in the FBG redraft rankins for LB's...http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=lb&howrecent=7

Which I just can't understand. I haven't heard anything about Ruud displacing him at the MLB spot. Maybe you guys have?

My comment about Vilma vs. Bulluck was directed at the overall consensus ranking, not yours. I see now that Bulluck is now #1 on both lists.... it wasn't yesterday, unless I was looking at something else, which is a possibilty. I also didn't say YOU dropped Vilma out of the top five, I have dropped him to sixth in my own rankings.

I am curious to ask the entire staff why Quarles would be ranked so low. There has to be some reason behind such a drop from last year's performance to such lowly expectations this year.

Here is a link to the league I have Quarles in.... I just can't see him going from 7 to 34......

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2006...Y=points&TEAM=*

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This may have a lot to do with the scoring system also. I have him at #30 with a 10% drop in solo tackles (88, compared to 103 last year). There's very little room for error within the group that Quarles lies. Ten additional points would land him at #23 while ten less points would drop him to #50.
 
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There have been a lot of LOOOONG hours over the past couple of weeks. Obviously not listing Quarles is an oversite but I hardly think leaving a number 40 something linebacker off the list in an early May ranking qualifies as "horrific oversites" Thanks for pointing it out though. Now that I have the projections project under control I can/will go back and spend a little more time on my rankings. I think if you look a little closer you'll see that I don't have Bullock ahead of Vilma on MY overall rankings. He is listed first on the concensus overall rankings.

As for Vilma, I have him as a top 3 LB and the move to the 3-4 won't scare me off. When the Ravens first went to the 3-4 people said it would knock Ray Lewis way down. I think he fell all the way to something like 112 solo tackles that year ;)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My apology, I should have made that singular and said "oversight".... but Quarles was the #7 LB and #27 scorer OVERALL in my IDP league last year. I see no reason for him to fall out of the top ten this year, either.... so I'm not sure what you mean by the "number 40" but I also noticed that Quarles is ranked at a lowly #34 in the FBG redraft rankins for LB's...http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=lb&howrecent=7

Which I just can't understand. I haven't heard anything about Ruud displacing him at the MLB spot. Maybe you guys have?

My comment about Vilma vs. Bulluck was directed at the overall consensus ranking, not yours. I see now that Bulluck is now #1 on both lists.... it wasn't yesterday, unless I was looking at something else, which is a possibilty. I also didn't say YOU dropped Vilma out of the top five, I have dropped him to sixth in my own rankings.

I am curious to ask the entire staff why Quarles would be ranked so low. There has to be some reason behind such a drop from last year's performance to such lowly expectations this year.

Here is a link to the league I have Quarles in.... I just can't see him going from 7 to 34......

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2006...Y=points&TEAM=*

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Quarles will be 35 at the start of the season. If it wasn't for the fact they got him cheap, he prolly wouldn't be on the team. IMO he is a nice insurance policy if Rudd isn't ready yet. I think its 50/50 Ruud beat him out in training camp or at some point this season, at the very least he could cut into Quarles playing time.
 
I think Cracker has it right.

I just don't see how Quarles' career year is repeatable as the MLB in the Tampa-2, especially next to a tackle monster like Derrick Brooks. Since moving from strong side to middle linebacker in 2002, Quarles stats look like this.

2002 16 games - 74-39, 113 total, 7.06 per game

2003 11 games - 57-23, 80 total, 7.27 per game

2004 14 games - 72-32, 104 total, 7.43 per game

2005 16 games - 103-30, 133 total, 8.31 per game

Some may see that as steady improvement. I see it as a nearly 11% improvement from 2004 to 2005 and a nearly 13% improvement from his 2002-04 average to 2005. Factor in his age, questionable durability history, and the presence of Ruud (not to mention Brooks) and I think Cracker is very correct in his projections for Quarles.

I'm not comfortable ranking him in solid LB2 range, especially with all the talented newbies of draft classes 2005 and 2006. I have him at 33, but in a tier of similar players from Kawika Mitchell at 28 to Ian Gold at 41.

 
Hellooooo John Norton! Quarles! He didn't even make your list?!? You really want to revisit some of what appear to be horrific oversights!

I found this interesting.... in the LB rankings, Vilma is 1.... but in the overall, Bulluck is 1, Vilma 2. Norton seems down on Vilma, but the switch to a 3-4 can explain that. As a Jets homer, I do see Vilma dropping, even out of the top five LB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There have been a lot of LOOOONG hours over the past couple of weeks. Obviously not listing Quarles is an oversite but I hardly think leaving a number 40 something linebacker off the list in an early May ranking qualifies as "horrific oversites" Thanks for pointing it out though. Now that I have the projections project under control I can/will go back and spend a little more time on my rankings. I think if you look a little closer you'll see that I don't have Bullock ahead of Vilma on MY overall rankings. He is listed first on the concensus overall rankings.

As for Vilma, I have him as a top 3 LB and the move to the 3-4 won't scare me off. When the Ravens first went to the 3-4 people said it would knock Ray Lewis way down. I think he fell all the way to something like 112 solo tackles that year ;)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My apology, I should have made that singular and said "oversight".... but Quarles was the #7 LB and #27 scorer OVERALL in my IDP league last year. I see no reason for him to fall out of the top ten this year, either.... so I'm not sure what you mean by the "number 40" but I also noticed that Quarles is ranked at a lowly #34 in the FBG redraft rankins for LB's...http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=lb&howrecent=7

Which I just can't understand. I haven't heard anything about Ruud displacing him at the MLB spot. Maybe you guys have?

My comment about Vilma vs. Bulluck was directed at the overall consensus ranking, not yours. I see now that Bulluck is now #1 on both lists.... it wasn't yesterday, unless I was looking at something else, which is a possibilty. I also didn't say YOU dropped Vilma out of the top five, I have dropped him to sixth in my own rankings.

I am curious to ask the entire staff why Quarles would be ranked so low. There has to be some reason behind such a drop from last year's performance to such lowly expectations this year.

Here is a link to the league I have Quarles in.... I just can't see him going from 7 to 34......

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2006...Y=points&TEAM=*

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Quarles will be 35 at the start of the season. If it wasn't for the fact they got him cheap, he prolly wouldn't be on the team. IMO he is a nice insurance policy if Rudd isn't ready yet. I think its 50/50 Ruud beat him out in training camp or at some point this season, at the very least he could cut into Quarles playing time.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Unless there is some solid info on Ruud taking playing time away (and I haven't seen a thing to support that idea) I still don't see Quarles as a forty, or a thirty in the LB rankings. A sampling from one of my leagues last year:

1. Vilma-328.5

5. Bulluck- 281.0

7. Quarles- 259.0

15. Brackett- 240.0

20. Thurman- 226.0

25. Farrior- 217.0

30. Dansby- 211.5

For Quarles to drop into the thirty range, that is a fifty point drop. Yes, he's getting up in age, but it's the last year of his contract. Ranking him in the neighborhood of 20, I could understand, with the guessing (and that's what it is at this point) that Ruud will take playing time away. Last year, everyone and their brother said Quarles was done. They were wrong. They will be wrong again.

 
I'm not saying that it's the case with Quarles, but we tend to think that players who post a certain number will continue to post that number (or improve) unless they either A) get injured, or B) lose their job. Where in this does simply "getting old" come into play? I don't have a study, but it's reasonable to think that after a certain age, a players production starts to decline. Shelton Quarles, at age 35, would be a very risky play to match or better his stats from a year ago. When putting a set of projections together, especially those that will be posted on a FF stight like Footballguys, that risk has to weigh a little heavier than a hunch.

Just my opinion, of course ;)

 
1. Vilma-328.5

5. Bulluck- 281.0

7. Quarles- 259.0

15. Brackett- 240.0

20. Thurman- 226.0

25. Farrior- 217.0

30. Dansby- 211.5

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Same chart, using Zealots scoring1. J.Vilma 170.0

5. A. Thomas 157.7

13. S.Quarles 137.0

15. B.Urlacher 135.0

20. G.Brackett 132.5

25. K.Dansby 129.6

30. K.Mitchell 113.5

While the numbers are considerably lower, the difference between Quarles and #30 remains the same in both, about an 18% drop.

 
the explanation for me is pretty simple.

I expect Quarles to decline from the numbers he put up last year. I don't think it's very likely that he'll be able to sustain that type of production and I don't trust him to stay healthy for all 16 games again.

I also expect a lot of younger players to improve on their numbers from last year and pass him.

Quarles is a nice player, but age has to catch up to him at some point. Ruud obviously is another risk although I didn't give that threat too much weight until we hear something more official.

 
btw, Quarles fantasy ranking the past 4 seasons using FBG scoring:

2002 - 24

2003 - 77

2004 - 30

2005 - 13

finishing somewhere between 20 to 30 seems realistic, but his age/injury risk drop him lower in my rankings.

 
cracker wrote:

Where in this does simply "getting old" come into play? I don't have a study, but it's reasonable to think that after a certain age, a players production starts to decline. Shelton Quarles, at age 35, would be a very risky play to match or better his stats from a year ago.

I saw a study on this a few weeks back. I will try to find it.

 
OK, clearly part of the ranking disparity (between mine and the FBG staff) is based on the difference in the scoring system used. FYI, I am in two dynasty leagues, Dynasty Wars and Dynasty Wars II. These two leagues are 16 teams, half FBG guys, Half guys from the Huddle. I am a paid memeber of both sites, however! lol. In one league, I represent the Huddle, in the other one, FBG's.

The scoring system rewards tackles and assists much more than the "standard" FBG scoring, and for that matter, Zealot league scoring. This difference accentuates MLB's who rack up a lot of tackles. IE: Quarles being the 7th vs the 13th highest scoring LB based on last year's numbers. I have to remember to recalibrate this when I look at rankings and ADP's here.

If Quarles were to drop to thirty in our scoring system, that's almost a 25% drop in points scored. That's a pretty big divot. Yes, he's 35, but I tend to ignore the "injury projection" thing. I do think that there is a chance he could lose time to Ruud, but only if TB falls out of contention. I don't expect to see that happen.

 
the problem with D'Qwell is the apostrophe in his name. When Wood did his rankings, D'Qwell wasn't showing up in the database so he couldn't rank him. The apostrophe was removed to fix the problem since then, and Wood's rankings should be updated shortly.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I found that article (gridiron grumblings) but it is a pay site and a premium article.

Anyway, the guidlines of the study were:

Include only players with at least eight starts in a season.

Include only those age/position combinations that represented at least three players in a given season.

WCOFF scoring rules were used for offensive players, straight fantasy points for IDPs.



The results (minus the chart):

So what can we conclude from these tables? Well, the thing that jumps out at you is the pattern of deterioration between offensive skill players and their defensive counterparts. Offensive players tend to decline earlier in their careers and then proceed to fade away, while the defensive player begin to decline later in their careers and then suddenly stop playing.
Since I couldn't add the chart here I did want to add a few things:1. DL remained very consistant up to age 35

2. LB saw the biggest drop-off at ages 32 and 35

3. Scoring for DB seems to peek at age 30

4. Clearly we are ruling out players prior to them hitting the wall

 
(minus the chart):

So what can we conclude from these tables? Well, the thing that jumps out at you is the pattern of deterioration between offensive skill players and their defensive counterparts. Offensive players tend to decline earlier in their careers and then proceed to fade away, while the defensive player begin to decline later in their careers and then suddenly stop playing.
Off the top of my head Foreman and Sharper seem to fit that description to a T, I am srue there are many others
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top