Looking at it right now, I would say my strategy will be trying to stay awake if the draft takes more than an hour lol.
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FBG MOCK DRAFT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter by_the_sea_wannabe
- Start date
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I know one thing - I am taking the day off after the draft. And since I am taking that day off, I'll commit a cardinal sin and be drafting drunk!Since the first leg of the survivor is for 5 weeks, I'm trying to devise a mathematical formula to downgrade all players that have their byes on weeks 4 or 5. And I am also adding extra weight to strength of schedule. For example, here is the schedule for the first 5 weeks for Jamal Lewis (the rankings are based on Clayton Gray's SoS):Week 1 - DAL (9th ranked rush D)Week 2 - PIT (5th ranked rush D)Week 3 - BAL (4th ranked rush D)Week 4 - CIN (19th ranked rush D)Week 5 - BYEHe not only has his bye, but he faces 3 top-10 D's in a row to start the season. I can gaurantee he won't be drafted by me. Marshawn Lynch is one RB that I will certainly be targeting:Week 1 - SEA (30th ranked rush D)Week 2 - JAX (23rd ranked rush D)Week 3 - OAK (29th ranked rush D)Week 4 - STL (31st ranked rush D)Week 5 - ARI (20th ranked rush D)He doesn't have a bye, and faces 3 terrible rush D's and 2 below average ones. I was shocked to see JAX ranked worse than CIN, so I checked and found out why. Last year, JAX gave up 12 rushing TD's to CIN's 11, even though there were 59 more rush attempts vs CIN. The YPC against was very close (4.2 for CIN, 4.1 for JAX). If we remove common opponents, here is who JAX faced:ATL, CAR, DEN, HOU x 2, IND x 2, NO, OAK, SD, TB, TENCompared to the opponents for CIN:ARI, BAL x 2, CLE x 2, MIA, NE, NYJ, PIT, SEA, STLClayton puts alot of thought into his SoS charts, and I use them, even moreso in a 5-week long league. I used them last year to draft Travis Henry (yeah, yeah, I know). Travis was leading the NFL in rushing after the first 4 weeks, due in large part to the cakewalk schedule he started with.
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there's another way of drafting......?
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Update - I hate my team. Why, you ask? Well, when I drafted Edge in the 4th round, he was only 29 years old. I didn't think he'd be over the hill by the 13th round!
ok heres the deal...I'll be quite honest, if there was a way to track who was checking in the most and logged on...I think I would have a pretty good shot at winninig the title....I am on the ends....but #### has really dragged other times too....I work 4 ten hour days with friday off....had a booster club golf tourney today....sorry wasn't around, but I don't think I should be taking all the heat for the slow play....I could have put in some picks, but things change...
I am cool with whatever and don't mean to sound like a ####....I'll take whatever was given to me because this is after all a July mock
anyway, after what was taken before me, my picks would have have been...
Mush
then
Kevin Jones
I am cool with whatever and don't mean to sound like a ####....I'll take whatever was given to me because this is after all a July mock
anyway, after what was taken before me, my picks would have have been...
Mush
then
Kevin Jones
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
It's all cool, Ref. Only a friendly mock here. You will certainly be invited to the MFL mock after we finish this one. You have provided great commentary thus far...
its cool...thats what I mean...I have probably been on more and contributed more (feedback)....then most and I get made to be the ####...sorry my picks may have not timed out right and right when it was my turn to pick it wasnt good for me, but my contributions should have got me a hall pass instead of acting like I was the cause of the slow play.............
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
We just had to pick for you, dude... no hard feelings, but we hadn't seen you in 18 hrs. I think I am like you. I prefer not to predraft, (even if it means PM'ing someone at the other end of the draft) because some of my choices may be reaches, but at the same token, I don't want to tip my hat either.I'd rather have a slower draft with constructive commentary than a fast one with none at all. If we wanted that, we could all head off to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Hang in there. This thing is almost over.
footballman_696969
Footballguy
Round 15
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
1. Chris Brown
2. Tatum Bell
3. James Jones
4. Muhsin Muhammad
5. DeSean Jackson*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
1. Chris Brown
2. Tatum Bell
3. James Jones
4. Muhsin Muhammad
5. DeSean Jackson*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Mozzy...You have 1 TE, 1 D, and 1 K so far. Also, you only have 1 RB for week 8 (your other 3 are all off), and only 2 WR's for week 4 (3 of your 5 WR's are off). Knowing this, what is your positional preference for your next 2 picks?
MCguidance
Footballguy
I never use a predraft list - just have never done it. I feel like i have been around a lot. I signed up for the mock to really gain some insight into how other, better FFers draft. I am not on the level many are on in the Shark Pool..or this mock. If I have failed to provide any constructive criticism it's because I like to wait until the end as well. That being said, I feel I have the weakest team, so I am hesitant to post anything, ha.
In all honesty, I hope we do another MFL mock. However, I will be indisposed starting Sunday, Juily 20th to Wed., July 23rd. If you guys do it then, I will probably bow out, so I don't hold you up. If you do it after then, I am definitely down for another one.
In all honesty, I hope we do another MFL mock. However, I will be indisposed starting Sunday, Juily 20th to Wed., July 23rd. If you guys do it then, I will probably bow out, so I don't hold you up. If you do it after then, I am definitely down for another one.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
One great thing about using MFL is that it allows you to predraft without anyone else seeing your picks. Once we finish this mock, I will create an MFL mock and invite all from this mock to it. As far as time limits go, we will have to be strict. Whatever limit we set will be in stone. I think most of us just want to get this draft over seeing that we are in the 14th round.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Agreed. I could always use my phone to access the mock, haha.Dirty Weasel said:
doowain
Footballguy
Personally, if this thing was on MFL, I'd be more adept to giving reasons for picks and commentary as it went along. Doing it like this, it's just so much of a hassle for me to click between several threads to go back and find out why I picked this guy, why I didn't pick this guy, what I was feeling for my next pick, etc.With MFL everything will be structured and things are much easier to see.
posted by DW but thought good here, especially bolded part which is especially true on the ends.....
For those I put on autodraft, I am only trying to get this thing done quickly. No hard feelings. It's in the late rounds anyways, so we are only drafting our backups, kickers, and sleepers. As I said, we had a good group here and I will set up an MFL mock after this one. All mockers will be invited back. We will then add as many mockers as those who do not wish to do this again. For draft position, I will use a random draft spot generator site.
For those who prefer not to send predraft lists to other people - I am in the same boat with you. The reason I don't like to predraft is that I may be able to get my 2nd player listed on my list after the turn, and I don't want to tip my hat as to who I want. I'm sure many of you feel the same way.
McGuidance - Sorry about that, but put yourself in my shoes. I saw you here at 11pm last night when you were up, but then you left for 7 hrs and 45 minutes, only to come back and take a player already selected with less than 10 minutes on your clock. I PM'ed you right away, and you came back right away, but then left without choosing a different player. It just seemed very odd. That's why I put you on autodraft. I'm sorry about the miscommunication.
The next mock on MFL will be much better and more structured. You can predraft without anyone else seeing your list. And you won't have to keep track of anything; the site will do that for us. The site will show you all players already drafted, and list the highest rated players left at each position. It also shows you bye weeks. I will PM everyone when the mock is all set up.
For those I put on autodraft, I am only trying to get this thing done quickly. No hard feelings. It's in the late rounds anyways, so we are only drafting our backups, kickers, and sleepers. As I said, we had a good group here and I will set up an MFL mock after this one. All mockers will be invited back. We will then add as many mockers as those who do not wish to do this again. For draft position, I will use a random draft spot generator site.
For those who prefer not to send predraft lists to other people - I am in the same boat with you. The reason I don't like to predraft is that I may be able to get my 2nd player listed on my list after the turn, and I don't want to tip my hat as to who I want. I'm sure many of you feel the same way.
McGuidance - Sorry about that, but put yourself in my shoes. I saw you here at 11pm last night when you were up, but then you left for 7 hrs and 45 minutes, only to come back and take a player already selected with less than 10 minutes on your clock. I PM'ed you right away, and you came back right away, but then left without choosing a different player. It just seemed very odd. That's why I put you on autodraft. I'm sorry about the miscommunication.
The next mock on MFL will be much better and more structured. You can predraft without anyone else seeing your list. And you won't have to keep track of anything; the site will do that for us. The site will show you all players already drafted, and list the highest rated players left at each position. It also shows you bye weeks. I will PM everyone when the mock is all set up.
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mozzy84
Footballguy
QB - Brees, Garcia
RB - Grant, Maroney, Forte, Jackson, Rhodes
WR - Moss, Driver, Harrison, burleson, Booker, Walter
TE - V. Davis
K - Folk
D - Ne
Since the finish is in site, rundown of most of my team (or at least the guys who are supposed to matter) and some of my thoughts.
Tough mock, seemed to go close to the FBG rankings for the first half of the draft, tough to get any good value on most of my picks it felt like. Don't love this team by any means but don't think its terrible either. Would need some help on the waiver as I did not pay any attention to bye weeks (just to much work for me with this set up) and for the simple fact this team is just not that great at the RB position....Actually even in real drafts bye weeks really don't push me one way or another because I am a guy that does alot of in season moves and I figure my team will probably change or I will change it by the time the bye weeks come around. I by no means meant to have the rb/wr same team combos this thing has going, I would try harder to avoid doing that in real life....
if anyone wants to share any thoughts on my squad or what they would have done different please do, I like hearing that stuff.
1.08 - R. Moss
Drafting out of the 8 spot. Don't like this spot much at all in the first round, mostly because I hate being the the guy to take the first WR off the board and I like alot of the running backs taken ahead of me. But the running backs taken after him- LJ, Lynch, MJD, Mcghee all have a much higher bust percentage than Moss does IMO. I went with a guy who has probably the easiest schedule against the pass and should be close or go over 20 td's again. I think NE throw just as much as last year even with the big leads they will have, but I do see brady leaving some games earlier this year, not sure if moss will though.
2.03 - Ryan Grant
Almost went with Wayne here thinking that alot of WR and QB"S would go over the next 20 picks. Also thought about the brady/moss connection (which I have in my dynasty league
) Went with Grant as I thought he looked great last year and should put up nice numbers with or without the flipflopper farve.
3.10 - Drew Brees
Wanted marshall or J. lewis both who went right before me. (lots of targeted guys went right before my pick it felt like). Thought about R. Williams and like welker in the area but couldn't do it with moss on the squad allready. Went with another guy who I figured should be solid on not waste the pick (which I kinda felt williams might). Another pick with nothing of value really. And I am not normally a guy to take a qb this early but I wanted to see how it would shake out.
4.03 - Maroney
This is where my draft took a turn for the worse imo. Went fishing, got drunk and timed out, got stuck with maroney. Not a huge fan, would have went in a 100 different directions besides him. Gates for sure, james, turner, CJ2 all better options imo. Would have felt a little better about it if I didn't have Moss already, not a fan of taking 2 guys from the same team in the first 4 rounds unless its manning/wayne/addai or brady/moss. I would have went Gates and then targeted Rudi as my rb #2. This round changed my whole draft...
5.10- Matt forte
I take a 5th round rookie running back in alot of my real drafts, just seems like a good spot to do it and has worked alot of years for me. Honestly no clue how good he will do but he should get the ball alot and have some upside.
6.03 - driver
Loved this pick actually. I think driver will bounce back nicely and would be a good compliment to moss. got stuck with the running back wr combo again though, another reason why this team is not that good.
7.10 - harrison
No clue wheather he plays or not, or if he does play will he be close to his old level. Figured the risk is worth a shot with the players being drafted around this area, not a whole lot caught my eye besides heap and berrian so I swung for the fences here.
8.03 - burleson
kind of an insurance pick for the harrison pick, was targeting heap and was hoping he would make it to me next pick. Probably reached a bit here but I think he will put up wr3 numbers regardless.
9.10 - V davis
Not much left at the TE spot as of now. All of Heap, Scheffler, Shockey were gone. Thought for sure scheffler or shockey would be here for me, I was wrong. Maybe this is Davis' year, dunno...
10.03 - NE D
Was hoping for the vikes went with NE who is normally a solid fantasy d and should be just looking at the schedule.
RB - Grant, Maroney, Forte, Jackson, Rhodes
WR - Moss, Driver, Harrison, burleson, Booker, Walter
TE - V. Davis
K - Folk
D - Ne
Since the finish is in site, rundown of most of my team (or at least the guys who are supposed to matter) and some of my thoughts.
Tough mock, seemed to go close to the FBG rankings for the first half of the draft, tough to get any good value on most of my picks it felt like. Don't love this team by any means but don't think its terrible either. Would need some help on the waiver as I did not pay any attention to bye weeks (just to much work for me with this set up) and for the simple fact this team is just not that great at the RB position....Actually even in real drafts bye weeks really don't push me one way or another because I am a guy that does alot of in season moves and I figure my team will probably change or I will change it by the time the bye weeks come around. I by no means meant to have the rb/wr same team combos this thing has going, I would try harder to avoid doing that in real life....
if anyone wants to share any thoughts on my squad or what they would have done different please do, I like hearing that stuff.
1.08 - R. Moss
Drafting out of the 8 spot. Don't like this spot much at all in the first round, mostly because I hate being the the guy to take the first WR off the board and I like alot of the running backs taken ahead of me. But the running backs taken after him- LJ, Lynch, MJD, Mcghee all have a much higher bust percentage than Moss does IMO. I went with a guy who has probably the easiest schedule against the pass and should be close or go over 20 td's again. I think NE throw just as much as last year even with the big leads they will have, but I do see brady leaving some games earlier this year, not sure if moss will though.
2.03 - Ryan Grant
Almost went with Wayne here thinking that alot of WR and QB"S would go over the next 20 picks. Also thought about the brady/moss connection (which I have in my dynasty league
) Went with Grant as I thought he looked great last year and should put up nice numbers with or without the flipflopper farve.3.10 - Drew Brees
Wanted marshall or J. lewis both who went right before me. (lots of targeted guys went right before my pick it felt like). Thought about R. Williams and like welker in the area but couldn't do it with moss on the squad allready. Went with another guy who I figured should be solid on not waste the pick (which I kinda felt williams might). Another pick with nothing of value really. And I am not normally a guy to take a qb this early but I wanted to see how it would shake out.
4.03 - Maroney
This is where my draft took a turn for the worse imo. Went fishing, got drunk and timed out, got stuck with maroney. Not a huge fan, would have went in a 100 different directions besides him. Gates for sure, james, turner, CJ2 all better options imo. Would have felt a little better about it if I didn't have Moss already, not a fan of taking 2 guys from the same team in the first 4 rounds unless its manning/wayne/addai or brady/moss. I would have went Gates and then targeted Rudi as my rb #2. This round changed my whole draft...
5.10- Matt forte
I take a 5th round rookie running back in alot of my real drafts, just seems like a good spot to do it and has worked alot of years for me. Honestly no clue how good he will do but he should get the ball alot and have some upside.
6.03 - driver
Loved this pick actually. I think driver will bounce back nicely and would be a good compliment to moss. got stuck with the running back wr combo again though, another reason why this team is not that good.
7.10 - harrison
No clue wheather he plays or not, or if he does play will he be close to his old level. Figured the risk is worth a shot with the players being drafted around this area, not a whole lot caught my eye besides heap and berrian so I swung for the fences here.
8.03 - burleson
kind of an insurance pick for the harrison pick, was targeting heap and was hoping he would make it to me next pick. Probably reached a bit here but I think he will put up wr3 numbers regardless.
9.10 - V davis
Not much left at the TE spot as of now. All of Heap, Scheffler, Shockey were gone. Thought for sure scheffler or shockey would be here for me, I was wrong. Maybe this is Davis' year, dunno...
10.03 - NE D
Was hoping for the vikes went with NE who is normally a solid fantasy d and should be just looking at the schedule.
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Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Starting lineup (bye weeks in parenthesis)QB - Drew Brees (9)QB - Brees, Garcia
RB - Grant, Maroney, Forte, Jackson, Rhodes
WR - Moss, Driver, Harrison, burleson, Booker, Walter
TE - V. Davis
K - Folk
D - Ne
Since the finish is in site, rundown of most of my team (or at least the guys who are supposed to matter) and some of my thoughts.
Tough mock, seemed to go close to the FBG rankings for the first half of the draft, tough to get any good value on most of my picks it felt like. Don't love this team by any means but don't think its terrible either. Would need some help on the waiver as I did not pay any attention to bye weeks (just to much work for me with this set up) and for the simple fact this team is just not that great at the RB position....Actually even in real drafts bye weeks really don't push me one way or another because I am a guy that does alot of in season moves and I figure my team will probably change or I will change it by the time the bye weeks come around. I by no means meant to have the rb/wr same team combos this thing has going, I would try harder to avoid doing that in real life....
if anyone wants to share any thoughts on my squad or what they would have done different please do, I like hearing that stuff.
1.08 - R. Moss
Drafting out of the 8 spot. Don't like this spot much at all in the first round, mostly because I hate being the the guy to take the first WR off the board and I like alot of the running backs taken ahead of me. But the running backs taken after him- LJ, Lynch, MJD, Mcghee all have a much higher bust percentage than Moss does IMO. I went with a guy who has probably the easiest schedule against the pass and should be close or go over 20 td's again. I think NE throw just as much as last year even with the big leads they will have, but I do see brady leaving some games earlier this year, not sure if moss will though.
2.03 - Ryan Grant
Almost went with Wayne here thinking that alot of WR and QB"S would go over the next 20 picks. Also thought about the brady/moss connection (which I have in my dynasty league) Went with Grant as I thought he looked great last year and should put up nice numbers with or without the flipflopper farve.
3.10 - Drew Brees
Wanted marshall or J. lewis both who went right before me. (lots of targeted guys went right before my pick it felt like). Thought about R. Williams and like welker in the area but couldn't do it with moss on the squad allready. Went with another guy who I figured should be solid on not waste the pick (which I kinda felt williams might). Another pick with nothing of value really. And I am not normally a guy to take a qb this early but I wanted to see how it would shake out.
4.03 - Maroney
This is where my draft took a turn for the worse imo. Went fishing, got drunk and timed out, got stuck with maroney. Not a huge fan, would have went in a 100 different directions besides him. Gates for sure, james, turner, CJ2 all better options imo. Would have felt a little better about it if I didn't have Moss already, not a fan of taking 2 guys from the same team in the first 4 rounds unless its manning/wayne/addai or brady/moss. I would have went Gates and then targeted Rudi as my rb #2. This round changed my whole draft...
5.10- Matt forte
I take a 5th round rookie running back in alot of my real drafts, just seems like a good spot to do it and has worked alot of years for me. Honestly no clue how good he will do but he should get the ball alot and have some upside.
6.03 - driver
Loved this pick actually. I think driver will bounce back nicely and would be a good compliment to moss. got stuck with the running back wr combo again though, another reason why this team is not that good.
7.10 - harrison
No clue wheather he plays or not, or if he does play will he be close to his old level. Figured the risk is worth a shot with the players being drafted around this area, not a whole lot caught my eye besides heap and berrian so I swung for the fences here.
8.03 - burleson
kind of an insurance pick for the harrison pick, was targeting heap and was hoping he would make it to me next pick. Probably reached a bit here but I think he will put up wr3 numbers regardless.
9.10 - V davis
Not much left at the TE spot as of now. All of Heap, Scheffler, Shockey were gone. Thought for sure scheffler or shockey would be here for me, I was wrong. Maybe this is Davis' year, dunno...
10.03 - NE D
Was hoping for the vikes went with NE who is normally a solid fantasy d and should be just looking at the schedule.
RB - Ryan Grant (8)
RB - Laurence Maroney (4)
WR - Randy Moss (4)
WR - Donald Driver (8)
WR - Marvin Harrison (4) (Nate Burleson (4) if Marvin doesn't play)
TE - Vernon Davis (9)
K - Nick Folk (10)
D - New England Patriots (4)
Bench
QB - Jeff Garcia (10)
RB - Matt Forte (8)
RB - Brandon Jackson (8)
RB - Dominic Rhodes (4)
WR - Nate Burleson (4) (Marvin Harrison (4) if he doesn't play)
WR - Marty Booker (8)
WR - Kevin Walter (8)
Thoughts
- I like your pick of Moss at 1.10, but would've went with Brady at 2.3. That combo can win weeks for you. In hindsight, I think you would've liked your team better, because many decent RB's went in the later rounds.
- Brees turned out to be a decent pick at 3.10. Doubtful he would've been there at 4.3, because Ref chose Carson Palmer at 4.2. If you had waited until 5.10, the top 6 QB's would've been gone, and you likely would've waited until way later and went with QBBC.
- As for your RB corps, I like that you took Brandon Jackson in the 12th round. Although I think Ryan Grant is not going to turn out to be a one year wonder, getting the handcuff in the 12th is great value as insurance for your RB1. You will likely rotate Maroney and Forte as your RB2. I think your top 3 RB's are solid.
- As for your WR corps, I am torn. You nabbed a top stud in Moss, but then ended up with an overall average group. Just my opinion, but if I go WR early, I want it to be a position of real strength. Now, IF Marvin comes back strong, you will be set.
- Vernon Davis has a ton of potential in the Martz offense this year. I thought he was a great pick for you at 9.10
- Great defense and kicker.
- 12 of your 16 picks have their byes in weeks 4 and 8. Not a big deal; just gonna be tough weeks for you.
Predraft for rounds 16 and 17
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
2 of these w/o the same bye week
1. BB - 6
2. Tenn - 6
3. OAK - 5
4. IND - 4
5. TB - 10
6. GB - 8
7. Den - 8
8. Phi - 7*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
PRedraft for round 18
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
1. rackers
2. scobee
3. dawson
4. reedtynes
5. k. brown
6. j. brown
7. gould
8. akers
9. longwell
10. tynes
11. stover
12. kasay*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
2 of these w/o the same bye week
1. BB - 6
2. Tenn - 6
3. OAK - 5
4. IND - 4
5. TB - 10
6. GB - 8
7. Den - 8
8. Phi - 7*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
PRedraft for round 18
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
1. rackers
2. scobee
3. dawson
4. reedtynes
5. k. brown
6. j. brown
7. gould
8. akers
9. longwell
10. tynes
11. stover
12. kasay*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Most FF leagues play their SB before NFL teams start resting their players. But, like you, I do think about this when choosing my players. It just happens to be way down on my tiebreaker list when selecting players.thanks for the thoughts dirtyI hear you with the moss/brady connection winning games for you, I don't know how helpful those guys are going to be come the ff playoffs. maybe thats looking to far ahead dunno...
just a comment on the new draft....it kinda sucks that mozzy and I are other sides of the starting requirements, I think mozzy has been great to have around.....
the flex is kind of big for me.....all my leagues use it and it really changes things when you can start 3 RB's.....not sure there is any way to compromise this one, so if the majority want to not use the flex and stick with having to start 3 WR's, I may just try to find another one....or maybe we could do two different drafts, one with the flex one without.....might be tough having two going at once, but I know I would participate in both, and if guys only wanted to do one or the other, we could probably find some other guys....
also, just a couple other comments just throwing stuff out there:
some of my leagues give 3 pts for a safety because it can be such a game changing play (get points and the ball back)
and a couple of my leagues didn't like giving a whole point for reception so one of them does .5 and the other does .33
just some ideas if your leagues are ever looking to change things a little.....I like the lesser point per reception, because it is easier to sell to the old guys that don't like giving a PPR.....
the flex is kind of big for me.....all my leagues use it and it really changes things when you can start 3 RB's.....not sure there is any way to compromise this one, so if the majority want to not use the flex and stick with having to start 3 WR's, I may just try to find another one....or maybe we could do two different drafts, one with the flex one without.....might be tough having two going at once, but I know I would participate in both, and if guys only wanted to do one or the other, we could probably find some other guys....
also, just a couple other comments just throwing stuff out there:
some of my leagues give 3 pts for a safety because it can be such a game changing play (get points and the ball back)
and a couple of my leagues didn't like giving a whole point for reception so one of them does .5 and the other does .33
just some ideas if your leagues are ever looking to change things a little.....I like the lesser point per reception, because it is easier to sell to the old guys that don't like giving a PPR.....
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Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
LOL, you are killing me here. I will make the setup however it needs to be so everyone will play. Seeing that some people refuse to play unless it's set up a specific way, I'll do it the way they want it. Since I don't think anyone else will complain about the 3pts per safety, I will make that change. I do think that some will quit if I change the 1PPR, so that must stay as is. The flex will be added. You can start either of the 3 options below:1QB/3RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1D
1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D
1QB/2RB/2WR/2TE/1K/1D
DW, my other suggestions were just for everybody in their home leagues and stuff, not the mock.....I am cool with whatever
only real suggestion for this mock was to maybe have one that has a flex option and one that doesn't....
I'm down with whatever
only real suggestion for this mock was to maybe have one that has a flex option and one that doesn't....
I'm down with whatever
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I'll run the one with a flex option. Maybe someone else can run one without a flex (hint, hint).
mozzy84
Footballguy
lets see how smooth this one goes and then maybe we can get a 1-2-3-1-1 in closer to the season if there is some interest still.
predraft list, sorry if some of these are gone allready
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
indy d
houston d
alex smith
jeff king
eric johnson
shanco (however you spell it) te mn
eagles d
denver d
st louis d*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
predraft list, sorry if some of these are gone allready
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
indy d
houston d
alex smith
jeff king
eric johnson
shanco (however you spell it) te mn
eagles d
denver d
st louis d*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
4th spot
I like this spot this year, even more if it's PPR. LT goes at 1.1 in most formats, and PPR shouldn't be any different. The next 3 picks seem to be interchangeable. A case can be made for each of ADP, Westy, and SJax at the 1.2 spot. ADP because of his incredible ceiling and explosiveness, Westy because he basically is the entire PHI offense, and SJax because he is one of a few RB's that is capable of 400+ touches with double-digit TD's. With the 4 spot you just sit back and take whichever guy is left, and you will be happy.
1.4 Steven Jackson RB STL
Besides LT at 1.1, I think SJax at 1.4 (with ADP and Westy gone, of course) is an easy choice. Like LJ, people think SJax is a punishing runner, and they are right. But his work as a pass-receiving RB is very overlooked. How many have forgotten that just 2 years ago he had 90 receptions to go along with 346 carries? 436 touches is a monster load, even for a stud like SJax. Last year he finished as RB14, but that was while missing 4 games. His PPG put him at RB6, in what was considered a down year for him (and the entire Rams offense, for that matter). The Rams O-line was decimated by injury last year, but seem to be getting healthy. At LT, Orlando is on Pace to make a comeback after getting injured in game 1 of last year. SJax should return to his 2006 form in 2008. There was no other player I considered instead of SJax.
2.9 Peyton Manning QB IND
I was pleasantly surprised to see Peyton still on the board at 2.9. Brett Favre may have been the ironman of QB's, but Peyton is the ironman of FF QB's. He hasn't missed a start in his 10-yr career. Here are his fantasy rankings over his career (from rookie season to last year): 9, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3. Just look at those rankings. 9 straight years as a top-5 QB! He has averaged 4163 passing yards and 31 passing TD's over his career. Let's put that into perspective - until last year, Tom Brady never reached 4163 yards or 31 TD's. His quick release and O-line keep him off his back, and more important for FF, healthy to play every week. When you have Peyton, you have the confidence to wait until the very late rounds to get a backup for him, knowing that you will use whoever you get only once. There was no other player I considered instead of Peyton.
3.4 Torry Holt WR STL
As the 11th WR taken in our draft, I thought he was great value. Just as Peyton is the ironman QB of FF, Holt is the ironman WR of FF. He has missed only 2 games in his 9-yr career. Would you like to see your WR1 get 94 catches in a PPR league? If so, you'd be happy with Holt, because that is what he has averaged since 2000. Would you like to see your WR1 get 1385 yards? If so, you'd be happy with Holt, because that is what he has averaged since 2000. Here are his fantasy rankings since his rookie season: 7, 8, 15, 2, 7, 6, 6, 13. That is 6 top-10 finishes in 8 years. Even in his two worst fantasy years he put up 91/1302/4 and 93/1189/7. He hasn't been below 90 catches in the last 6 years, and always ranks near the top in WR targets. As I said above, the Rams O-line should be better/healthier in 2008 than they were in 2007. With Isaac Bruce heading off to SF, Holt will continue to be one of the NFL's reception leaders. The only other player I considered instead of Holt was Jamal Lewis, but I thought I could get a RB with similar stats in the 4th round.
4.9 Edgerrin James RB ARI
I crossed my fingers that Edge would make it back to me, and I lucked out. He was the 21st RB taken in this draft. He is not a sexy pick anymore (no RB from ARI ever is), but the wheels haven't come off yet. He finished as RB10 last year, and has 4 top-10 finishes out of the last 5 years. What makes him a safe pick is the workload he gets. He has 5 straight seasons with at least 310 carries/349 touches. Edge (324) had one less carry than the league leader (Portis) last year. I don't expect his YPC to jump to the mid 4's, but asking for a repeat of his 1200 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving in 2007 is not going out on a limb by any stretch. 1400 combined yards and high single-digit TD's is great value from the 4.9 spot, and those are stats you would expect to see from a RB selected in the late 1st/early 2nd rounds. I considered Kellen Winslow here, but going into round 5 with only 1 RB would be FF suicide, and I was sure Edge wouldn't have made it back to me.
5.4 Willie Parker RB PIT
Broken bones heal, and from what I've read, FWP is recovering nicely. He is a risky pick for a few reasons. First, will he fully recover? Second, how much will Mendenhall steal from him? Third, has the O-line improved from last year? Fourth, will he score more than 2 TD's again? Let's try to answer each of these. For the broken fibula he suffered in week 16, it was a bone break with no ligament tear or tissue damage (so I've read). He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash in March, and says he is at/near 100% (I'll take that 40-yd time as a yes). Another sign that he is healthy is the release of Najeh Davenport. Sure, some may say Najeh's release was due to the signing of Mendenhall. While I agree with this, PIT wouldn't have cut Najeh unless they felt FWP was fine too. I have every confidence that FWP will be ready for the 2008 season. As for losing carries to Mendenhall, time will tell. Rookie RB's tend to be lacking in the pass-blocking game, so I think FWP will get the lion's share at the start of the season. If Mendenhall shows he can handle all the duties of an NFL RB, he will begin to whittle into FWP's stats early on. If not, FWP should be in for another season of 300 touches (he had 368 in 2006, and then 344 last year, before going down in the 1st qtr of game 16). FWIW, of the five FBG experts who have their projections on the site, the average is 297 touches (and yes, they are fairly current projections and the FBG experts know Mendenhall is in town). Now let's get to the one factor that most worries me - PIT's offensive line. PIT is well-known as a great rushing team with a solid line, but they struggled as a unit last year. I don't know if they will, so I think FWP's (or any other PIT RB) YPC isn't going to be much better than it was last year. Last, FWP has nowhere to move but up in the TD department. IMO, his paltry 2TD's last year actually makes him ranked low moreso than the threat of Mendenhall stealing carries. I'm not wearing goggles thinking he will score 16 like he did in 2006, but asking for middle to high single digits is perfectly acceptable. I considered Tony Gonzalez here, and would've taken him if FWP's bye week was the same as SJax or Edge, but couldn't pass on such a nice RB3. Also, I looked at what would likely be left for me at RB in the 6th round, and didn't like the options.
6.9 Hines Ward WR PIT
Hines as my WR2 is pretty weak, but I am happy that he was still on the board for me. I knew I'd pay dearly at WR by taking 3 RB's in the first 5 rounds. Even in a 2RB/3WR league, I think the smart play is to grab those value RB's in the 4th thru 7th rounds instead of WR's. After 20 WR's are off the board, I think the next 15-20 WR's aren't going to be that much different. The same is not true for RB's. I see a big difference between the the next 15-20 RB's after the top 20 are off the board. Edgerrin James was the 21st RB taken in this draft at 4.9, and Lee Evans was the 21st WR taken at 5.8. They were only 11 picks apart in our draft, but their ADP's are around 2 rounds apart. The 30th RB taken was DeAngelo Williams at 7.1, and the 30th WR taken was Hines Ward at 6.9. To me, there is a huge difference between Edgerrin James and DeAngelo Williams, but not much of a difference between Lee Evans and Hines Ward. I considered no other player here, because I had to take a WR, and Hines was on the top of my list at his position.
7.4 Selvin Young RB DEN
Although not a fan of the RB carousel in Denver, Selvin does has the potential to be a primary ball carrier. He will post RB2 stats if given even 60-65% of the workload. Denver finished in the top 10 rushing last year with a mixture of Travis Henry (167 carries) and Selvin Young (140 carries). With Travis gone, I am not on a cloud thinking Selvin will get those 307 carries, but 250 isn't hard to imagine. He was perhaps the last RB left on the board with a legit shot to post FF-starter level numbers (well, maybe there is one more, and I am sure he will go in the next few picks, but I preferred Selvin over him). With only 18 roster spots, I went into this knowing I wanted to carry a minimum of 4 RB's and a maximum of 5, but since I feel confident about the strength of my RB corps, I can finish off the draft trying to solidify the other positions. I will only grab one more RB, but that's only if incredible value falls my way. The other players I considered were Donovan McNabb (nice value in the 7th, but only trade bait since I already have Peyton Manning), and Rashard Mendenhall (I would've taken him if FWP were my RB2, but preferred getting another possible starter versus handcuffing my RB3).
8.9 Todd Heap TE BAL
OK, I lied a bit. I did see a difference in the next 4 TE's. Luckily, the one TE that went before me was Owen Daniels. I really thought Garlic or Mozzy would take Heap in round 8. Top 5 production is well within reach for Todd. Since his rookie season, he has finished as TE1, TE3, TE23, TE3, TE4, and TE38. In the only 2 seasons he finished outside the top 4, he played in 6 games each. He is an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, I don't think he can finish any lower than TE6 (and TE6 would be considered a down year for him, if he plays a full season). I could not pass him up for 2 reasons - 1) two of the three teams that pick twice before I get to pick again do not have a TE yet, and 2) I know my target player will make it back to me in round 9. I did not consider a QB, because having Peyton doesn't require a decent backup. I did not consider RB because I am very happy with the 4 that I already have, and may not take any more, given that we only have 18 roster spots. I didn't consider WR, knowing that my target player will be there for me at 9.4 (oops, kinda tipped my hand on that, huh?).
9.4 San Diego Chargers D
The only WR I would've taken here at 9.4 was Javon, but he went 7 picks ago. I'm a firm believer that a good D is worthy of a 9th round pick. With my QB, RB, and TE spots pretty firm, it was either take a top D or a scrub WR. I know, this scrub WR will be a starter for me, but that doesn't make him any less a scrub. I mean, really now, aren't the next 20 or so WR's just hopefuls anyway? I'll be snagging my favorite 3 WR sleepers in the next 4 rounds or so, so I didn't mind passing on one this round. In a real league at this point, I'd be targeting a team weak at RB and be throwing out offers for Selvin Young.
10.9 Reggie Brown WR PHI
Finally, my WR3. He does have WR36 potential, so I have to be semi-happy to get him here, especially after all 11 other teams have taken their 3 starters, 6 teams have taken 4 WR's, and 2 teams have taken 5 WR's. I also lucked out that my 3 WR's have different byes. Obviously, I was going WR with this pick, and I had Reggie Brown ranked higher than the rest, so I considered no other player. I would've taken Bryant Johnson if FM69 didn't take him 1 pick before me, but only because his bye would've worked better for my team than the WR4 I have scheduled for my next pick.
11.4 Heath Miller TE PIT
Well, I decided to back up Todd Heap, since Heath was still available. Hopefully I don't need him, but he is a decent low end TE1 just in case Heap gets injured. If Heath would've been gone, I would've taken a WR instead, because I am not as high on the remaining TE's. There are only flier WR's left, so I thought it best to back up an injury-risk TE with a solid guy (plus, the WR I wanted at 11.4 has a bye conflict with one of my starters). I was happy with Heap, but now I am happy and comfortable with Heap and Heath. Heath has finished as TE7, TE11, and TE13 in his 3 years in the league. He has played every game and has 5, 6, and 7 TD's during his 3 years. I may start thinking about a backup QB for Peyton in the next round or so.
12.9 Donnie Avery WR STL
I know it's taboo to take rookie WR's in a redraft. But the fact is, since 1996 (I'm currently researching years previous to 1996), an average of 3 rookie WR's per season have made it into the top-60, with an average of 2 rookies cracking top-36 (which would be considered FF starter-worthy). I don't shy away from taking rookie WR's in a redraft, but only when it comes to filling my bench. That said, when selecting rookie WR's, I'm only going to choose the top-10 selected ones. In the last 12 seasons, the rookie selected 1st overall has made the top-60 in 8 of those seasons, and has cracked top-36 in 5 of those seasons. Let me repeat that - nearly 50% of the WR's selected 1st overall are FF starter-worthy in their rookie seasons. The only other thing I considered here was drafting JAX as my 2nd defense. I think they will finish in the top-5.
13.4 James Hardy WR BUF
Yowza, back-to-back rookie WR's. Evans has his spot as the top WR in BUF. The next in line are Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish. Reed is entering his 7th season and barely cracked the top-60 in 2003, when he finished as WR59. He has 3 straight seasons finishing in the 70's. As for Parrish, he's played 3 seasons, but has increased his output in each season. Unfortunately, he has only climbed to WR81 at this point. He's quite a small WR (5'9", 170lbs) and I just don't see him breaking out. He's more of a special-teamer. I think Hardy has a great shot at securing the WR2 spot this year. He is a big target (6'5", 217lbs) who should get a decent amount of EZ targets. While I don't think he will get 70 catches, I can see him cracking the top-60 with a statline like 40/500/5, but with upside to finish around WR30. I almost jumped and took the first kicker off the board, but decided I'd wait.
14.9 Stephen Gostkowski K NE
I figured I may as well strengthen my starting lineup, because there are only scraps left at all the other positions, and none are really that much better than the others. That's not to say I don't have a few deep sleepers in mind with my last 4 picks of the draft.
15.4 Ryan Torain RB DEN
I wasn't planning on drafting any more RB's, but I figured I'd take a chance on Ryan. I really didn't consider him a backup to my RB4. I'm just not 100% sure that Selvin will be the workhorse starter over Ryan. Selvin is built smaller and may not be suited for a full load. Torain is a RB that can handle 25 touches a game, but will he get his chance? He's worth a shot in the 15th round.
16.9 Kurt Warner QB ARI
He is a forgotten backup, capable of claiming a starting role. How soon we forget he was the best FF QB for the last 8 games of the 2007 season. Leinart is on a short leash, and Warner is a steal at this spot. He is a great QB2 for Peyton owners. If he isn't the starter by week 4, you simple trade him to the Leinart owner, then pick up any starting QB for Peyton's week 4 bye.
17.4 Brett Favre QB GB
Another lottery ticket pick here. Hey, it's the 17th round. If Brett gets a starting job in GB or anywhere else he will blow away his ADP. Back-to-back ancient QB's, I know, but if I hit on 1 of them, yowza! If not, I hit the waiver wire for a week 4 QB; no big loss. I'm happy with the rest of my team and can afford to take 2 lottery picks here.
I like this spot this year, even more if it's PPR. LT goes at 1.1 in most formats, and PPR shouldn't be any different. The next 3 picks seem to be interchangeable. A case can be made for each of ADP, Westy, and SJax at the 1.2 spot. ADP because of his incredible ceiling and explosiveness, Westy because he basically is the entire PHI offense, and SJax because he is one of a few RB's that is capable of 400+ touches with double-digit TD's. With the 4 spot you just sit back and take whichever guy is left, and you will be happy.
1.4 Steven Jackson RB STL
Besides LT at 1.1, I think SJax at 1.4 (with ADP and Westy gone, of course) is an easy choice. Like LJ, people think SJax is a punishing runner, and they are right. But his work as a pass-receiving RB is very overlooked. How many have forgotten that just 2 years ago he had 90 receptions to go along with 346 carries? 436 touches is a monster load, even for a stud like SJax. Last year he finished as RB14, but that was while missing 4 games. His PPG put him at RB6, in what was considered a down year for him (and the entire Rams offense, for that matter). The Rams O-line was decimated by injury last year, but seem to be getting healthy. At LT, Orlando is on Pace to make a comeback after getting injured in game 1 of last year. SJax should return to his 2006 form in 2008. There was no other player I considered instead of SJax.
2.9 Peyton Manning QB IND
I was pleasantly surprised to see Peyton still on the board at 2.9. Brett Favre may have been the ironman of QB's, but Peyton is the ironman of FF QB's. He hasn't missed a start in his 10-yr career. Here are his fantasy rankings over his career (from rookie season to last year): 9, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3. Just look at those rankings. 9 straight years as a top-5 QB! He has averaged 4163 passing yards and 31 passing TD's over his career. Let's put that into perspective - until last year, Tom Brady never reached 4163 yards or 31 TD's. His quick release and O-line keep him off his back, and more important for FF, healthy to play every week. When you have Peyton, you have the confidence to wait until the very late rounds to get a backup for him, knowing that you will use whoever you get only once. There was no other player I considered instead of Peyton.
3.4 Torry Holt WR STL
As the 11th WR taken in our draft, I thought he was great value. Just as Peyton is the ironman QB of FF, Holt is the ironman WR of FF. He has missed only 2 games in his 9-yr career. Would you like to see your WR1 get 94 catches in a PPR league? If so, you'd be happy with Holt, because that is what he has averaged since 2000. Would you like to see your WR1 get 1385 yards? If so, you'd be happy with Holt, because that is what he has averaged since 2000. Here are his fantasy rankings since his rookie season: 7, 8, 15, 2, 7, 6, 6, 13. That is 6 top-10 finishes in 8 years. Even in his two worst fantasy years he put up 91/1302/4 and 93/1189/7. He hasn't been below 90 catches in the last 6 years, and always ranks near the top in WR targets. As I said above, the Rams O-line should be better/healthier in 2008 than they were in 2007. With Isaac Bruce heading off to SF, Holt will continue to be one of the NFL's reception leaders. The only other player I considered instead of Holt was Jamal Lewis, but I thought I could get a RB with similar stats in the 4th round.
4.9 Edgerrin James RB ARI
I crossed my fingers that Edge would make it back to me, and I lucked out. He was the 21st RB taken in this draft. He is not a sexy pick anymore (no RB from ARI ever is), but the wheels haven't come off yet. He finished as RB10 last year, and has 4 top-10 finishes out of the last 5 years. What makes him a safe pick is the workload he gets. He has 5 straight seasons with at least 310 carries/349 touches. Edge (324) had one less carry than the league leader (Portis) last year. I don't expect his YPC to jump to the mid 4's, but asking for a repeat of his 1200 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving in 2007 is not going out on a limb by any stretch. 1400 combined yards and high single-digit TD's is great value from the 4.9 spot, and those are stats you would expect to see from a RB selected in the late 1st/early 2nd rounds. I considered Kellen Winslow here, but going into round 5 with only 1 RB would be FF suicide, and I was sure Edge wouldn't have made it back to me.
5.4 Willie Parker RB PIT
Broken bones heal, and from what I've read, FWP is recovering nicely. He is a risky pick for a few reasons. First, will he fully recover? Second, how much will Mendenhall steal from him? Third, has the O-line improved from last year? Fourth, will he score more than 2 TD's again? Let's try to answer each of these. For the broken fibula he suffered in week 16, it was a bone break with no ligament tear or tissue damage (so I've read). He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash in March, and says he is at/near 100% (I'll take that 40-yd time as a yes). Another sign that he is healthy is the release of Najeh Davenport. Sure, some may say Najeh's release was due to the signing of Mendenhall. While I agree with this, PIT wouldn't have cut Najeh unless they felt FWP was fine too. I have every confidence that FWP will be ready for the 2008 season. As for losing carries to Mendenhall, time will tell. Rookie RB's tend to be lacking in the pass-blocking game, so I think FWP will get the lion's share at the start of the season. If Mendenhall shows he can handle all the duties of an NFL RB, he will begin to whittle into FWP's stats early on. If not, FWP should be in for another season of 300 touches (he had 368 in 2006, and then 344 last year, before going down in the 1st qtr of game 16). FWIW, of the five FBG experts who have their projections on the site, the average is 297 touches (and yes, they are fairly current projections and the FBG experts know Mendenhall is in town). Now let's get to the one factor that most worries me - PIT's offensive line. PIT is well-known as a great rushing team with a solid line, but they struggled as a unit last year. I don't know if they will, so I think FWP's (or any other PIT RB) YPC isn't going to be much better than it was last year. Last, FWP has nowhere to move but up in the TD department. IMO, his paltry 2TD's last year actually makes him ranked low moreso than the threat of Mendenhall stealing carries. I'm not wearing goggles thinking he will score 16 like he did in 2006, but asking for middle to high single digits is perfectly acceptable. I considered Tony Gonzalez here, and would've taken him if FWP's bye week was the same as SJax or Edge, but couldn't pass on such a nice RB3. Also, I looked at what would likely be left for me at RB in the 6th round, and didn't like the options.
6.9 Hines Ward WR PIT
Hines as my WR2 is pretty weak, but I am happy that he was still on the board for me. I knew I'd pay dearly at WR by taking 3 RB's in the first 5 rounds. Even in a 2RB/3WR league, I think the smart play is to grab those value RB's in the 4th thru 7th rounds instead of WR's. After 20 WR's are off the board, I think the next 15-20 WR's aren't going to be that much different. The same is not true for RB's. I see a big difference between the the next 15-20 RB's after the top 20 are off the board. Edgerrin James was the 21st RB taken in this draft at 4.9, and Lee Evans was the 21st WR taken at 5.8. They were only 11 picks apart in our draft, but their ADP's are around 2 rounds apart. The 30th RB taken was DeAngelo Williams at 7.1, and the 30th WR taken was Hines Ward at 6.9. To me, there is a huge difference between Edgerrin James and DeAngelo Williams, but not much of a difference between Lee Evans and Hines Ward. I considered no other player here, because I had to take a WR, and Hines was on the top of my list at his position.
7.4 Selvin Young RB DEN
Although not a fan of the RB carousel in Denver, Selvin does has the potential to be a primary ball carrier. He will post RB2 stats if given even 60-65% of the workload. Denver finished in the top 10 rushing last year with a mixture of Travis Henry (167 carries) and Selvin Young (140 carries). With Travis gone, I am not on a cloud thinking Selvin will get those 307 carries, but 250 isn't hard to imagine. He was perhaps the last RB left on the board with a legit shot to post FF-starter level numbers (well, maybe there is one more, and I am sure he will go in the next few picks, but I preferred Selvin over him). With only 18 roster spots, I went into this knowing I wanted to carry a minimum of 4 RB's and a maximum of 5, but since I feel confident about the strength of my RB corps, I can finish off the draft trying to solidify the other positions. I will only grab one more RB, but that's only if incredible value falls my way. The other players I considered were Donovan McNabb (nice value in the 7th, but only trade bait since I already have Peyton Manning), and Rashard Mendenhall (I would've taken him if FWP were my RB2, but preferred getting another possible starter versus handcuffing my RB3).
8.9 Todd Heap TE BAL
OK, I lied a bit. I did see a difference in the next 4 TE's. Luckily, the one TE that went before me was Owen Daniels. I really thought Garlic or Mozzy would take Heap in round 8. Top 5 production is well within reach for Todd. Since his rookie season, he has finished as TE1, TE3, TE23, TE3, TE4, and TE38. In the only 2 seasons he finished outside the top 4, he played in 6 games each. He is an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, I don't think he can finish any lower than TE6 (and TE6 would be considered a down year for him, if he plays a full season). I could not pass him up for 2 reasons - 1) two of the three teams that pick twice before I get to pick again do not have a TE yet, and 2) I know my target player will make it back to me in round 9. I did not consider a QB, because having Peyton doesn't require a decent backup. I did not consider RB because I am very happy with the 4 that I already have, and may not take any more, given that we only have 18 roster spots. I didn't consider WR, knowing that my target player will be there for me at 9.4 (oops, kinda tipped my hand on that, huh?).
9.4 San Diego Chargers D
The only WR I would've taken here at 9.4 was Javon, but he went 7 picks ago. I'm a firm believer that a good D is worthy of a 9th round pick. With my QB, RB, and TE spots pretty firm, it was either take a top D or a scrub WR. I know, this scrub WR will be a starter for me, but that doesn't make him any less a scrub. I mean, really now, aren't the next 20 or so WR's just hopefuls anyway? I'll be snagging my favorite 3 WR sleepers in the next 4 rounds or so, so I didn't mind passing on one this round. In a real league at this point, I'd be targeting a team weak at RB and be throwing out offers for Selvin Young.
10.9 Reggie Brown WR PHI
Finally, my WR3. He does have WR36 potential, so I have to be semi-happy to get him here, especially after all 11 other teams have taken their 3 starters, 6 teams have taken 4 WR's, and 2 teams have taken 5 WR's. I also lucked out that my 3 WR's have different byes. Obviously, I was going WR with this pick, and I had Reggie Brown ranked higher than the rest, so I considered no other player. I would've taken Bryant Johnson if FM69 didn't take him 1 pick before me, but only because his bye would've worked better for my team than the WR4 I have scheduled for my next pick.
11.4 Heath Miller TE PIT
Well, I decided to back up Todd Heap, since Heath was still available. Hopefully I don't need him, but he is a decent low end TE1 just in case Heap gets injured. If Heath would've been gone, I would've taken a WR instead, because I am not as high on the remaining TE's. There are only flier WR's left, so I thought it best to back up an injury-risk TE with a solid guy (plus, the WR I wanted at 11.4 has a bye conflict with one of my starters). I was happy with Heap, but now I am happy and comfortable with Heap and Heath. Heath has finished as TE7, TE11, and TE13 in his 3 years in the league. He has played every game and has 5, 6, and 7 TD's during his 3 years. I may start thinking about a backup QB for Peyton in the next round or so.
12.9 Donnie Avery WR STL
I know it's taboo to take rookie WR's in a redraft. But the fact is, since 1996 (I'm currently researching years previous to 1996), an average of 3 rookie WR's per season have made it into the top-60, with an average of 2 rookies cracking top-36 (which would be considered FF starter-worthy). I don't shy away from taking rookie WR's in a redraft, but only when it comes to filling my bench. That said, when selecting rookie WR's, I'm only going to choose the top-10 selected ones. In the last 12 seasons, the rookie selected 1st overall has made the top-60 in 8 of those seasons, and has cracked top-36 in 5 of those seasons. Let me repeat that - nearly 50% of the WR's selected 1st overall are FF starter-worthy in their rookie seasons. The only other thing I considered here was drafting JAX as my 2nd defense. I think they will finish in the top-5.
13.4 James Hardy WR BUF
Yowza, back-to-back rookie WR's. Evans has his spot as the top WR in BUF. The next in line are Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish. Reed is entering his 7th season and barely cracked the top-60 in 2003, when he finished as WR59. He has 3 straight seasons finishing in the 70's. As for Parrish, he's played 3 seasons, but has increased his output in each season. Unfortunately, he has only climbed to WR81 at this point. He's quite a small WR (5'9", 170lbs) and I just don't see him breaking out. He's more of a special-teamer. I think Hardy has a great shot at securing the WR2 spot this year. He is a big target (6'5", 217lbs) who should get a decent amount of EZ targets. While I don't think he will get 70 catches, I can see him cracking the top-60 with a statline like 40/500/5, but with upside to finish around WR30. I almost jumped and took the first kicker off the board, but decided I'd wait.
14.9 Stephen Gostkowski K NE
I figured I may as well strengthen my starting lineup, because there are only scraps left at all the other positions, and none are really that much better than the others. That's not to say I don't have a few deep sleepers in mind with my last 4 picks of the draft.
15.4 Ryan Torain RB DEN
I wasn't planning on drafting any more RB's, but I figured I'd take a chance on Ryan. I really didn't consider him a backup to my RB4. I'm just not 100% sure that Selvin will be the workhorse starter over Ryan. Selvin is built smaller and may not be suited for a full load. Torain is a RB that can handle 25 touches a game, but will he get his chance? He's worth a shot in the 15th round.
16.9 Kurt Warner QB ARI
He is a forgotten backup, capable of claiming a starting role. How soon we forget he was the best FF QB for the last 8 games of the 2007 season. Leinart is on a short leash, and Warner is a steal at this spot. He is a great QB2 for Peyton owners. If he isn't the starter by week 4, you simple trade him to the Leinart owner, then pick up any starting QB for Peyton's week 4 bye.
17.4 Brett Favre QB GB
Another lottery ticket pick here. Hey, it's the 17th round. If Brett gets a starting job in GB or anywhere else he will blow away his ADP. Back-to-back ancient QB's, I know, but if I hit on 1 of them, yowza! If not, I hit the waiver wire for a week 4 QB; no big loss. I'm happy with the rest of my team and can afford to take 2 lottery picks here.
