FBG Player Rankings - Comparison of Estimates vs Actuals (1 Viewer)

[fflnut]

I'm curious if there's any information in the FBG subscriber content that compares each staffers' last set of pre-season player rankings (baseline) against actual end of season rank (actuals) for 2007, 2006, and so on. We conduct this type of exercise in my company quite often - i.e. compare our budget estimates, baseline project schedule, etc. against the actuals at the end of the project, fiscal year, etc. From there we report on why there were variances (e.g. why a task took 2x as long as it should have), identify overall trends/weaknesses, and as a result continuously improve on our initial estimates.

I can see this being somewhat helpful to FBG staff (maybe they do this already) to improve each year and to subscribers. For example, lets say historically Maurile Tremblay is always very accurate with QB projections and Jason Wood is always very accurate with RB projections. Using different variations of the "Expert Rankings" FBG subscriber tool, a user could compile what they think are the most accurate set of overall player rankings.

Does anything like this exist?

 

[JamesTheScot]

I'm curious if there's any information in the FBG subscriber content that compares each staffers' last set of pre-season player rankings (baseline) against actual end of season rank (actuals) for 2007, 2006, and so on.

I'd love to see it as well.But asking prophets to publish their misses is not going to make you very popular with the staff.

 

[fflnut]

IMO, publishing their misses would make me even more confident in their rankings. Even if there are big misses, I'm still confident in the data they present, analysis they do, etc. No forecasting is perfect. If it was fantasy sports would be boring.

As a side note, I think there's another feature where FBG staff compiles and makes available rankings, ADP, or some other type of stat from popular fantasy football publications. It'd be interesting to see how other 3rd party pre-seasons rankings match up to the end of year actuals. If FBG is consistently better, that'd be a great marketing tool.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Yesterday somebody posted a link to this study about year 2007. I can't speak to the author's methodology or how he accounted for injuries, but there are a few interesting conclusions even though he admits that a one-year sample isn't broad enough.

MW

 

[Mark Wimer]

Speaking specifically to David Dodd's rankings during 2006, here is another review that ranked several sites:

Enjoy!

 

[butcher boy]

Damn, FBG should really do this for themselves. Sites like these are only as good as the predictions and they seem to be among the best according to those two links.

 

[fflnut]

Any others interested in something like this?

FBG staff, any thoughts on this?

Maybe I should have put the words Favre, Green Bay, etc. in the title of the thread so it'd fit in more with the rest of the topics being created. Edited to add - this was meant to be a joke about all the Favre threads, not to be rude...

 

[Phil Elliott]

It seems the success of FBG, DD and the projections so many people seem to have come to expect each week, pretty much speaks for itself. I thought the staff welcomed "guest" articles.