FBG Projections are LIVE (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

Offense created by David Dodds

IDP created by John Norton

PK created by Mike Herman

Defense/ST are not done yet

First Cut Projections

Some weirdness:

1. I am predicting Trent Green will be the starting QB for Miami.

2. Keyshawn Johnson is shown as a free agent, but will likely be on some team soon.

3. Chris Brown is shown as a free agent, but I expect he will be signed by someone.

 

[grtwhtsk]

It's linking to the 2006 projections DD.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's linking to the 2006 projections DD.

Fixed.

 

[videoguy505]

It's linking to the 2006 projections DD.

Fixed.

Home page is linking to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/currentproj-qb.php

Should be http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/currentproj-qb.php

 

[David Yudkin]

It's linking to the 2006 projections DD.

Fixed.

Home page is linking to http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/currentproj-qb.php

Should be http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/currentproj-qb.php

Link in original post is the 2007 version. Can't tell you what the link on the front page does . . .

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Wow Randy Moss is pretty high, that can be taken a number of ways...

 

[David Yudkin]

Wow Randy Moss is pretty high, that can be taken a number of ways...

I was going to comment that Moss was pretty low, so clearly he's a player with mixed expectations.

 

[videoguy505]

My note from the other thread is that the QB "biomass" is interesting. "Romo #9 w 258 FPs down to Jay Cutler at #17 w 240 FPs... 18 points separating all those guys, low end starters to mid-level backup guys in 12 team league."

Basically, if this doesn't change, if you want to wait in the draft for a QB, unless you snag one of the top 8 guys who falls through his teir, it doesn't matter who you get. You could wait until all your opponents have QBs, then snag 2 in a row, and still end up with 2 guys who could finish in the top 10 separately. Finding 2 guys with complementarly committee schedules could easily wind up as a top-5 QB with scoring taken week-to-week.

 

[Ariakis]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

 

[Pickle Rody]

Whoo, hoooooo........plug in to the '06 DD and we're off!!!!!!

 

[supermark_28]

At first glance,Alexander's rushing yardage looks a little low.

Edge is only 60-70 rushing yards "less" than him. Hmmm...

 

[David Yudkin]

Whomever did the projections isn't too bright. Brunell is ranked ahead of Brees in total points???? WTF!

You have to be looking at the wrong year. Make sure it says 2007 in the URL.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I think Cadillac will by far out do the projection.

 

[Blackhawk 69]

Nice.

When will there be content on the FBGs main site?

 

[redman]

You've got Jason Campbell low. Even if you don't take my rosy view of his production, your TD's are on the low end of what I'd expect and that's fine, but your yardage totals for him are very low. His performance last year, amortized across 16 games came to over 2900 yards, about 200 more than you've given to him. Part of it may be that you only projected 430 attempts, which is way low, perhaps by as many as 75 attempts or so. That offense figures to be healthier and therefore better, but it's also going to return intact (sans Dockery) and running the same system.

I think Romo's yardage totals and probably also his TD's are low.

You're obviously projecting injury for McNabb (which is not how I do projections, but whatever). If anything, he'll outperform his projections.

 

[The Man With No Name]

You've got Jason Campbell low. Even if you don't take my rosy view of his production, your TD's are on the low end of what I'd expect and that's fine, but your yardage totals for him are very low. His performance last year, amortized across 16 games came to over 2900 yards, about 200 more than you've given to him. Part of it may be that you only projected 430 attempts, which is way low, perhaps by as many as 75 attempts or so. That offense figures to be healthier and therefore better, but it's also going to return intact (sans Dockery) and running the same system. I think Romo's yardage totals and probably also his TD's are low. You're obviously projecting injury for McNabb (which is not how I do projections, but whatever). If anything, he'll outperform his projections.

Agree Have Feeley with 85 attempts, so an injury had to be projected. Reggie Brown and K. Curtis yardage look low to me.I own Chambers and think he is too high. He is talented, but those are close to career high numbers being projected.

 

[Mark Wimer]

You've got Jason Campbell low. Even if you don't take my rosy view of his production, your TD's are on the low end of what I'd expect and that's fine, but your yardage totals for him are very low. His performance last year, amortized across 16 games came to over 2900 yards, about 200 more than you've given to him. Part of it may be that you only projected 430 attempts, which is way low, perhaps by as many as 75 attempts or so. That offense figures to be healthier and therefore better, but it's also going to return intact (sans Dockery) and running the same system.

I think Romo's yardage totals and probably also his TD's are low.

You're obviously projecting injury for McNabb (which is not how I do projections, but whatever). If anything, he'll outperform his projections.

In the case of McNabb, there is no projection of an injury as the guy IS rehabbing an ACL and meniscus cartilage torn in November '06 (and surgically repaired on November 27th, 2006). Usually, an ACL requires a full 12 months to rehab, although some fast-healing players are able to come back more quickly than 12 months. See Delcotimes story for more on McNabb's injury/rehab. I think it is only logical to assume that McNabb may miss some of the early part of regular season given the date of his surgical procedure and the usual recovery time, therefrom.

My .02.

 

[redman]

You've got Jason Campbell low. Even if you don't take my rosy view of his production, your TD's are on the low end of what I'd expect and that's fine, but your yardage totals for him are very low. His performance last year, amortized across 16 games came to over 2900 yards, about 200 more than you've given to him. Part of it may be that you only projected 430 attempts, which is way low, perhaps by as many as 75 attempts or so. That offense figures to be healthier and therefore better, but it's also going to return intact (sans Dockery) and running the same system.

I think Romo's yardage totals and probably also his TD's are low.

You're obviously projecting injury for McNabb (which is not how I do projections, but whatever). If anything, he'll outperform his projections.

In the case of McNabb, there is no projection of an injury as the guy IS rehabbing an ACL and meniscus cartilage torn in November '06 (and surgically repaired on November 27th, 2006). Usually, an ACL requires a full 12 months to rehab, although some fast-healing players are able to come back more quickly than 12 months. See Delcotimes story for more on McNabb's injury/rehab. I think it is only logical to assume that McNabb may miss some of the early part of regular season given the date of his surgical procedure and the usual recovery time, therefrom.

My .02.

Fair enough. FYI - I only project injuries if I already know of an injury (ditto, of course, suspensions). I wasn't aware of the pessimism about his return to play at the beginning of the season.

 

[radballs]

LT's total projected FP is 5.4 points too high I think.

 

[radballs]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

 

[radballs]

Wow Randy Moss is pretty high, that can be taken a number of ways...

I was going to comment that Moss was pretty low, so clearly he's a player with mixed expectations.

I think it's really close but maybe just a tad low. I'd increase his receptions 5-7, increase his yardage 60-70 yards, and scale his TDs down one.

 

[David Dodds]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

We are shooting for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to release the first Draft Dominator. Things left to do:1. Another pass over with the projections.2. Creation of defensive team projections3. Creation and integration of Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule4. Distribution Curves5. Creation/Input into VBD App

 

[David Dodds]

LT's total projected FP is 5.4 points too high I think.

 

[radballs]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

We are shooting for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to release the first Draft Dominator. Things left to do:1. Another pass over with the projections.2. Creation of defensive team projections3. Creation and integration of Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule4. Distribution Curves5. Creation/Input into VBD App

 

[radballs]

LT's total projected FP is 5.4 points too high I think.

Also, Vernon Davis is .5 points too high. Everyone else checks out as far as I can tell.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Wrong team for Kyle Brady.

 

[snellman]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

We are shooting for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to release the first Draft Dominator. Things left to do:1. Another pass over with the projections.2. Creation of defensive team projections3. Creation and integration of Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule4. Distribution Curves5. Creation/Input into VBD App

 

[Ash]

Only because I always check my Birds first, but no Jevon Kearse?

 

[Rounders]

Tangent.....any upgrades planned for the DD??

 

[BigTex]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

We are shooting for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to release the first Draft Dominator. Things left to do:1. Another pass over with the projections.2. Creation of defensive team projections3. Creation and integration of Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule4. Distribution Curves5. Creation/Input into VBD App

VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV

 

[RBM]

Cedric Benson is going to kill those projections

 

[joffer]

Wrong team for Kyle Brady.

and Marcus Robinson

 

[BGP]

When will projections be available to download into the DD and LD tools?

I'd really like this as soon as possible with bye weeks updated. The rest of it can be left as is until Bruce makes any other improvements for this year.

We are shooting for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to release the first Draft Dominator. Things left to do:1. Another pass over with the projections.2. Creation of defensive team projections3. Creation and integration of Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule4. Distribution Curves5. Creation/Input into VBD App

This is what FBGs does best.

 

[nygiants56]

Offense created by David Dodds

IDP created by John Norton

PK created by Mike Herman

Defense/ST are not done yet

First Cut Projections

Some weirdness:

1. I am predicting Trent Green will be the starting QB for Miami.

2. Keyshawn Johnson is shown as a free agent, but will likely be on some team soon.

3. Chris Brown is shown as a free agent, but I expect he will be signed by someone.

a few things:about Matt Shaub's projections : you're basically saying that they dropped Carr and didn't get better at this position? you don't think Shaub will do well in his first season there?

Chad Pennington is way too low IMO< TJ is going to give that offense a much needed booster shot in the arm, this is likely to be Penny's best season as a pro, many,many dumpoffs to TJ..

Damon Huard threw 1 int in 11 games last season, wondering why you have him down for 12 ints this season?!

Jay Cutler at #17, isn't that a bit low for him ?

Vince Young at #8? you're drinking the VY Kool Aid too, huh? I'd like to see more out of him before I rank him that high...

for RBS:

why are you so down on McGahee?

I like where you have Brandon Jacobs, I think many people are vastly overrating this guy ..

one caveat: the first GB rb you have listed,Morency,doesn't appear until #42. for a team that has a strong track record of successfully running the football over the past decade +, I would think some RB will emerge out of the shadows to lead that team in rushing and top 1,000 yards at a minimum! Morency ,at just 735 yards is LOW! I know he's not a top NFL RB, but don't you think they'll trade for someone, or that Braondon Jackson will emerge as the team's starting RB?

Andre Johnson at WR #15 is laughable! the guy led the NFL in receptions last season, with Davidd Carr throwing to him!! Shaub HAS to be better than Carr! Anyone is better than him... factor in A. Green, and perhaps Houston is on their way ! I see no way AJ finishes the season as the 15th best WR.

 

[Giggity]

Offense created by David Dodds

IDP created by John Norton

PK created by Mike Herman

Defense/ST are not done yet

First Cut Projections

Some weirdness:

1. I am predicting Trent Green will be the starting QB for Miami.

2. Keyshawn Johnson is shown as a free agent, but will likely be on some team soon.

3. Chris Brown is shown as a free agent, but I expect he will be signed by someone.

a few things:about Matt Shaub's projections : you're basically saying that they dropped Carr and didn't get better at this position? you don't think Shaub will do well in his first season there?

Chad Pennington is way too low IMO< TJ is going to give that offense a much needed booster shot in the arm, this is likely to be Penny's best season as a pro, many,many dumpoffs to TJ..

Damon Huard threw 1 int in 11 games last season, wondering why you have him down for 12 ints this season?!

Jay Cutler at #17, isn't that a bit low for him ?

Vince Young at #8? you're drinking the VY Kool Aid too, huh? I'd like to see more out of him before I rank him that high...

for RBS:

why are you so down on McGahee?

I like where you have Brandon Jacobs, I think many people are vastly overrating this guy ..

one caveat: the first GB rb you have listed,Morency,doesn't appear until #42. for a team that has a strong track record of successfully running the football over the past decade +, I would think some RB will emerge out of the shadows to lead that team in rushing and top 1,000 yards at a minimum! Morency ,at just 735 yards is LOW! I know he's not a top NFL RB, but don't you think they'll trade for someone, or that Braondon Jackson will emerge as the team's starting RB?

Andre Johnson at WR #15 is laughable! the guy led the NFL in receptions last season, with Davidd Carr throwing to him!! Shaub HAS to be better than Carr! Anyone is better than him... factor in A. Green, and perhaps Houston is on their way ! I see no way AJ finishes the season as the 15th best WR.

Schaub is a 1st time starter, has less talent then Carr, new offense, no o-line at all.Penny is an average QB, in a questionable offense. There's as many reason to be down on him, as there are to be high on him. Jets are a team I'm avoiding this year in fantasy.

VYs rushing totals/TDs are a huge part of his ranking. PPG VY was pretty much a top 10 qb last year. I don't have an issue with 8.

AJ at 15 is laughable. No way you see hi m out of top 15?

NEWS FLASH - AJ has never been a top 15 WR!

I'll repeat it again.

Andre Johnson, has never been a top 15 WR. Done. Period. Thanks for playing.

So it's hardly "laughable" he isn't a top 15 WR this year. Horrible offense, no o-line, new QB who might not lock on to him as much, and AJ is always overrated.

 

[H.K.]

AJ at 15 is laughable. No way you see hi m out of top 15?NEWS FLASH - AJ has never been a top 15 WR! I'll repeat it again.Andre Johnson, has never been a top 15 WR. Done. Period. Thanks for playing.

He was #11 in PPR leagues last year.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

Good times.

 

[LTsharks]

Chad Pennington is way too low IMO< TJ is going to give that offense a much needed booster shot in the arm, this is likely to be Penny's best season as a pro, many,many dumpoffs to TJ..for RBSne caveat: the first GB rb you have listed,Morency,doesn't appear until #42. for a team that has a strong track record of successfully running the football over the past decade +, I would think some RB will emerge out of the shadows to lead that team in rushing and top 1,000 yards at a minimum! Morency ,at just 735 yards is LOW! I know he's not a top NFL RB, but don't you think they'll trade for someone, or that Braondon Jackson will emerge as the team's starting RB?

- Where are you getting this is Pennington's last year? I'm not real high on him, but I didn't know there was reason to think he will be done after this season. Is this just speculation on your part or is there some info I am not aware of? Curious to hear that reasoning.- I'm not sure you are thinking about the projections correctly (maybe you are looking at them more as rankings). Your thoughts that some RB will emerge in GB (trade, Jackson, etc) are all reasons for Morency's projections to be low, not reasons they should be higher. Those factors will keep his projected numbers down since there are reasons to doubt he will be the #1 RB all year. Not trying to give you a hard time on this, and my comments aren't really specific to Morency, more this type of situation and how it makes projections tough.

 

[Gandalf]

This is AWESOME. One question: are these projections PPR or non-PPR? I'm guessing PPR but I'd like to know with certainty. Thanks!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

At a quick glance, here are my top 2 at each position, overrated and underrated:

Under

QB - Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington

RB - Cedric Benson, Caddy Williams

WR - Drew Bennett, Ronald Curry

TE - Vernon Davis, Eric Johnson

Over

QB - Jon Kitna, Big Ben

RB - Frank Gore, Rudi Johnson

WR - Deion Branch, Jerry Porter

TE - Todd Heap, Heath Miller

Pretty much didn't see any real overvalued WR's or TE's, so I simply picked 2 of each.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is AWESOME. One question: are these projections PPR or non-PPR? I'm guessing PPR but I'd like to know with certainty. Thanks!

FBG does not use PPR as a standard scoring system, so everything is based off of 0 PPR.

 

[Giggity]

AJ at 15 is laughable. No way you see hi m out of top 15?NEWS FLASH - AJ has never been a top 15 WR! I'll repeat it again.Andre Johnson, has never been a top 15 WR. Done. Period. Thanks for playing.

He was #11 in PPR leagues last year.

And in my league were texans get -43434 pts for catches, he was WR300.These are NOT PPR projections. But that's a good point. Dodds you're really low on AJ, in PPR leagues he was a beast. Try to stay focused.

 

[glock]

So, the consensus is that Culpepper is done then?

 

[H.K.]

And in my league were texans get -43434 pts for catches, he was WR300.These are NOT PPR projections. But that's a good point. Dodds you're really low on AJ, in PPR leagues he was a beast. Try to stay focused.

Actually these are the projections that will feed DD, which are used for any scoring format...including PPR. FBG does not change projections for different scoring formats, the scoring formats change the rankings based on their projections.Your blanket statement that AJ has never been top 15 is wrong. Had you specified scoring system, it would have made a difference.

 

[Giggity]

And in my league were texans get -43434 pts for catches, he was WR300.These are NOT PPR projections. But that's a good point. Dodds you're really low on AJ, in PPR leagues he was a beast. Try to stay focused.

Actually these are the projections that will feed DD, which are used for any scoring format...including PPR. FBG does not change projections for different scoring formats, the scoring formats change the rankings based on their projections.Your blanket statement that AJ has never been top 15 is wrong. Had you specified scoring system, it would have made a difference.

Uh, wrong?He pointed out Dodds has him ranked WR15 in FBG scoring. He took issue with that. Fact is AJ has never been a top 15 WR in FBG scoring.These projections also include FF points, and rank the players. Otherwise he'd just put them in alphabetical order and include the projections. He applies it to the FBG scoring and ranks them. What's so confusing?So if AJ has never been a top 15 WR with FBG scoring, Dodds ranks him close to top 15 again, it's hardly laughable. It's actually probably where he'll end up.

 

[H.K.]

And in my league were texans get -43434 pts for catches, he was WR300.

These are NOT PPR projections.

But that's a good point. Dodds you're really low on AJ, in PPR leagues he was a beast.

Try to stay focused.

Actually these are the projections that will feed DD, which are used for any scoring format...including PPR. FBG does not change projections for different scoring formats, the scoring formats change the rankings based on their projections.Your blanket statement that AJ has never been top 15 is wrong. Had you specified scoring system, it would have made a difference.

Uh, wrong?He pointed out Dodds has him ranked WR15 in FBG scoring. He took issue with that. Fact is AJ has never been a top 15 WR in FBG scoring.

These projections also include FF points, and rank the players. Otherwise he'd just put them in alphabetical order and include the projections. He applies it to the FBG scoring and ranks them. What's so confusing?

So if AJ has never been a top 15 WR with FBG scoring, Dodds ranks him close to top 15 again, it's hardly laughable. It's actually probably where he'll end up.

Had you said AJ has never finished top 15 in FBG scoring originally, I wouldn't have responded. However, you were adamant that he was never top 15 but made no regard to scoring system until your most recent post. Then you said these are not PPR projections, which is inaccurate. Read the title, this is a thread on projections, not rankings. Huge difference. The "rankings" are for FBG scoring, but the projections are across the board.

Projections dictate rankings with respect to scoring system, so I was trying to clarify your statement because different people play in different systems, that's all.

 

[Giggity]

And in my league were texans get -43434 pts for catches, he was WR300.

These are NOT PPR projections.

But that's a good point. Dodds you're really low on AJ, in PPR leagues he was a beast.

Try to stay focused.

Actually these are the projections that will feed DD, which are used for any scoring format...including PPR. FBG does not change projections for different scoring formats, the scoring formats change the rankings based on their projections.Your blanket statement that AJ has never been top 15 is wrong. Had you specified scoring system, it would have made a difference.

Uh, wrong?He pointed out Dodds has him ranked WR15 in FBG scoring. He took issue with that. Fact is AJ has never been a top 15 WR in FBG scoring.

These projections also include FF points, and rank the players. Otherwise he'd just put them in alphabetical order and include the projections. He applies it to the FBG scoring and ranks them. What's so confusing?

So if AJ has never been a top 15 WR with FBG scoring, Dodds ranks him close to top 15 again, it's hardly laughable. It's actually probably where he'll end up.

Had you said AJ has never finished top 15 in FBG scoring originally, I wouldn't have responded. However, you were adamant that he was never top 15 but made no regard to scoring system until your most recent post. Then you said these are not PPR projections, which is inaccurate. Read the title, this is a thread on projections, not rankings. Huge difference. The "rankings" are for FBG scoring, but the projections are across the board.

Projections dictate rankings with respect to scoring system, so I was trying to clarify your statement because different people play in different systems, that's all.

Yes but anyone who brings up WR15, 15th rank WR, in this thread, you're talking in the context of Dodds projections which use FBG scoring.Click the link. WR 15. FBG scoring. People talking about ranking, aren't talking about PPR. Dodds has X ranked at 10th. It's in the context of FBG scoring. Because Dodds didn't rank them in any other scoring.

Againt, his projections are ranked in FBG scoring. If you're going to mention rankings that aren't FBG scoring, be sure to mention it.

And again, the comment was

AJ not in your top 15, that's laughable.

Uh no it isn't, he's never finished top 15. (not in your [dodds] top 15, thats laughable, Dodds is using FBG scoring, thats implied).

 

[H.K.]

Againt, his projections are ranked in FBG scoring. If you're going to mention rankings that aren't FBG scoring, be sure to mention it.

I did, and I see where you are coming from, too. I put a major hijack on this one, sorry about that to all.

 

[matuski]

It will be official that Benson = bust on the scale of Joey Harrington if he can't break 1000 yards on that team.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Thomas Jones is projected for the exact same number of receptions and receiving yards as last year. I'm not sure if that's an oversight, or the actual projections. Since I suspect it's the former, I thought I'd mention that.

(FWIW, I'd imagine Jones has a tough time getting near that many receptions this year.)