First, I should make clear that I would rather have a guy that has a chance to be a top 15 QB than a guy that is a 20-25 ranked QB and we know that's all he'll ever be. So Schaub is that high because we know A) he will be a starter in this league once he leaves the Falcons and B) he's got the skills to be a top 12-15 fantasy QB (see 2005 NE-ATL game).
I think that 2005 NE-ATL game is given way to much emphasis by fantasy footballers. Schaub was 18 for 34 for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is certainly an excellent game. However, the Patriots weren't exactly a shut down defense at that point in time. In 2005 the Patriots Defense was 31th in the league in passing yards, 28th in passing touchdowns, and 28th in interceptions. If Ryan Fitzpatrick had only played one game last year (remember in his first game he put up 310 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 Int) would he be ranked in the top 25 right now. I just think that there is too small of a sample size to justify a guy who won't be starting for at least a year and for all we know could be the next Rob Johnson.
Romo has been top 5 since he took over. top 10 may even be a little conservative if he keeps this pace up for the rest of the season. I have seen no sign that this a fluke.
My only concerns are related to the relatively small sample size and the fact that TO and Glenn could simply stop being effective receivers at any moment (TO due to insanity and Glenn to age/injury). I only rate Romo a few spots lower than you so this isn't really that big of a deal.
I refer you to comment above about what I look for in fantasy Qbs beyond the top 20 or so. I want a guy that at least has a chance of being a top 15 qb. Jackson definitely qualifies. He's got the ability to put up some points with his running ability, and has a terrific arm. Like VY, he's also been way ahead of schedule so far. I think he'll get the audition to the starter as early as mid 2007, if he doesnt win the job in training camp. Dont forget that he has Brad Childress as his teacher, the same coach that helped McNabb become what he is today.
On this one I simply plead ignorance. I know basically nothing about Jackson other than that he was a second round pick, isn't starting, and has terrible receivers. I attended the University of Wisconsin during the time that Childress was the offensive coordindator and can not bring myself to believe that he is going to be the architect of a high powered passing offense. I think what you are seeing this year with them trying to kill Chester Taylor with his workload is what you are likely to see in the future from the Vikings.
Campbell is a tougher call. Jeff Pasquino has convinced me that he is nothing special - his preseason really was terrible, especially compared to guys like Gradkowski, Cutler and Jackson. I was already a bit down on him because of the lack of positive buzz about him so far in his career. There's also the question of whether Dan Snyder will be able to tolerate growing pains from a young QB - remember the Brunell/Ramsey situation. I grant that Campbell does have some possible outcomes that would merit a higher ranking. I happen to not buy into them.
Not to be disrespectful to you or Pasquino but I think you're wrong. While he certainly hasn't set the world on fire he has thrown four touchdowns and only one interception in his first two starts. I certainly think that is more relevant than his preseason performance. I would also point out that Joey Harrington tore it up in the preseason a few years ago in Detroit and that had little value in predicting his regular season performance. Or more relevant to Washington, in Spurrier's first year as coach the Skins offense was unstoppable in the preseason, not so much in the regular season though.[edit] I also think it is relavent to note that Campbell has had a different offensive coordinator every year for the past 5 years. I think this probably has a lot to do with the lack of positive buzz and poor preseason performance. With all the preason stories about Al Saunders' 700 page playbook I don't think it is suprising that it took Campbell a while to pick up the intricacies to the point where he could be effective on the field.[/edit]Football Outsiders has done a study on how best to predict QB success based on college performance. They have found that no QB drafted in the first round, with 35 or more college starts, and a completion percentage of greater than 60% has ever failed to become an above average NFL starter. Now this doesn't necessarily translate into good fantasy production but I think when you are talking about guys who haven't really played yet it is a good proxy.Just to be fair, I think your rankings are spectacular and are the most important feature of my Footballguys subscription. It is also easier to look at someone elses rankings and criticize the two or three players that you disagree with than it is to develop your own comprehensive rankings. To be honest my rankings are simply your rankings with players moved up or down based on my opinion. For discussion sake I have included my top 20 QBs below.
one step closer
