Unlike kip, I did a fair amount of strategizing before the draft. And then watched as the draft went completely different than I expected. Considering that I'm fairly happy with what I ended up with, though I need my RBs to stay healthy.
Romo, Tony DAL QB - 5 5.08
Manning, Eli NYG QB - 7 7.08
Campbell, Jason OAK QB (P) - 8 14.05
I was fairly flexible about QB coming in, fine with taking Rivers in the 4th if he was there, or waiting and taking QBs late. I felt coming in that a lot of the bye week 5 players were being undervalued and I had in mind a draft plan to let me take advantage of them. Though I didn't think I'd end up with Romo, I had planned ahead and knew that Eli had a very easy schedule including a week 5 home game against Seattle, who were a hotbed for QB points last year and who I think may be the case again. And I'd checked the other leagues to have a good feeling that I'd need to take him in the 7th.
But what really went wrong here for me were how slow the QBs went compared to the other Survivor drafts with similar formats. I expected them to come off the board a little slower given the 4 pt passing TDs. But I was surprised when only 13 QBs were taken at 7.08 and then no more until the 11th round. Some of the other leagues by comparison had 16 and 20 QBs taken by the 11th. So where I thought Romo+Eli would give me a strong pair and let me take down some value in rounds 8-10 when others were picking QBs, instead everyone else was using those picks on other positions. Doh!
McFadden, Darren OAK RB (P) - 8 1.08
Best, Jahvid DET RB (P) - 9 3.08
Thomas, Daniel MIA RB ® - 5 11.08
Jones, Thomas KCC RB - 6 12.05
Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB ® - 8 22.05
Ward, Derrick HOU RB - 11 18.05
I love my starting RBs... as I think Best has top 7 RB potential especially when getting 1 pt PPR. But this was another spot that I got surprised by how the league drafted. In other leagues I was seeing RBs I was fine with being my RB3 last into the 8th round and even as late as late 9th. So when the last RB I was happy with went at 7.11 when I was aiming to grab one at 8.05, it left me in a bind. I decided I wasn't going to immediately chase a bunch of the bottom half RBBC guys yet, and was surprised at how quickly they came off the board too. Been awhile since I've played in a league where RBs are worth more than other positions, mine are 2 QB, 4-5 WR and 2-3 TE. Forgot how fast the backups can come off. That said, I'm ok with where I got Thomas and Jones, and I think in a PPR league that Rodgers could put up a week or two where I might need it. But overall, disappointed with lack of depth and if I go out early it will probably be poor performances/injuries to my top 2 that do it.
It was really hard to pass on Chris Johnson when he was there, but I think he could miss several games and I decided I'd play it safe for now and be able to go after more bye week 5 guys later.
Jennings, Greg GBP WR (Q) - 8 2.05
Harvin, Percy MIN WR (P) - 9 4.05
Rice, Sidney SEA WR (P) - 6 8.05
Moore, Denarius OAK WR ® - 8 9.08
Evans, Lee BAL WR (Q) - 5 10.05
Driver, Donald GBP WR - 8 17.08
I was expecting to go after Miles Austin in the 3rd or Brandon Marshall in the 4th, but Moose surprised me by taking Austin in the 2nd, and I wasn't going to take Marshall in the 3rd. I also wanted to get a QB in the third if I was going to go after Marshall so I'd be strong at QB1, RB1 and WR1. I could see at my 4th round pick that I was probably going to end up with Romo or a pair of late QBs so decided to pass on him to not weaken myself too much week 5. I'm fairly happy with these as a group. I'm high on Moore and Lee Evans, especially in this format where they can blow up for a game, and I think Rice was a steal, going a full 1-2 rounds later than other Survivor drafts, even some that were not PPR.
Daniels, Owen HOU TE - 11 6.05
Heap, Todd ARI TE (P) - 6 15.08
Beckum, Travis NYG TE - 7 24.05
I think Owen Daniels probably ends up around TE4, but that he's probably the last TE with potential to be TE1. I was happy to get him at TE6 and a round later than Witten, Clark and VD, all of whom I think have question marks. Heap is one of my sleepers this year, Beckum was more covering for injury than anything. Was looking to get Evan Moore for my TE3 but he went the pick before me.
Tynes, Lawrence NYG PK (Q) - 7 19.08
Hanson, Jason DET PK (P) - 9 21.08
Reed, Jeff SEA PK - 6 23.08
I waited a bit longer than most to take my kickers but am pretty happy with the first two. Both are on offenses who can move the ball so should get opportunities. I think a format like this needs 3 kickers. Unfortunately I wasn't able to get my third quite as early as I'd have liked.
Patriots, New England NEP Def - 7 13.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def - 5 16.05
Broncos, Denver DEN Def - 6 20.05
I think only BroadwayG and Chris Smith have defenses to compare to mine. Patriots are in the mix of teams who might end up #1 through 5 weeks, with games against Miami, Buffalo and Oakland on the road and getting San Diego and the Jets at home. And I got them as the 5th or 6th D off the board IIRC. Of those they play, only the Chargers are a high octane offense, though the Jets might start to throw the ball a bit more with Sanchez in his third year. Still, it's probably the best schedule for a top defense other than the Giants, whose CB injuries worry me now. Broncos, there was very little left when I took them, but they have games with the Titans, Bengals and Raiders, so could surprise and contribute one week. I just wish they had a better matchup week 5 (Chargers) when the Pats have the Jets and the Cowboys are on bye.
All in all I think I got a solid team but I could have done a lot better if I hadn't misjudged how the draft would go in a few spots. I think DD with Dodds projections had me as 4th in total roster points and 2nd in starter points. With mine I'm a bit higher, go figure since I took players I had ranked higher than him.
It's a tough league though, I won't be surprised if I make it through and won't be surprised if I don't.