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Fear is the draft killer: Don't overreact to Gronk/Foster Injuries (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
KrazyKyle
Footballguy
"Instead of fearing the risk that comes with Gronkowski and Foster, your opponents should be fearing the kind of juggernaut you can build if they let you get them at a discount in early drafts."
Very solid written article! It might be time to get in on some earlier drafting leagues because I have a feeling that the "scare" will wear off in the next couple of months. At Gronk's ADP of 26, some other sites have him as low as 43, I doubt it will ever be a better time to grab him at this value.
Very solid written article! It might be time to get in on some earlier drafting leagues because I have a feeling that the "scare" will wear off in the next couple of months. At Gronk's ADP of 26, some other sites have him as low as 43, I doubt it will ever be a better time to grab him at this value.
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
:circlestar:, primarily in hopes of more Dune references
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Luckily for me, I don't draft until late August, so these guys 'real' values should be more clear and at a consensus. Right now, I bet their draft values are all over the place.
Agree with Bloom that Foster's calf injury is a minor nick and no one is going to consider him to be "injury prone" during fantasy drafts. Foster is still a no brainer early in the first round imo.
But I'd only consider Gronk at a mild discount. I get the point that when he does play, he's a monster and could carry you thru the playoffs by himself. But if he misses out on several early season games, that's going to make me spend on a higher ceiling backup TE that's going to cost me depth at either WR or RB. It's not like I can afford to carry Gronk and a scrub TE in the second to last round. I'd still love to have him, but won't overpay if it costs me a valuable mid round selection to shore up my TE position.
Agree with Bloom that Foster's calf injury is a minor nick and no one is going to consider him to be "injury prone" during fantasy drafts. Foster is still a no brainer early in the first round imo.
But I'd only consider Gronk at a mild discount. I get the point that when he does play, he's a monster and could carry you thru the playoffs by himself. But if he misses out on several early season games, that's going to make me spend on a higher ceiling backup TE that's going to cost me depth at either WR or RB. It's not like I can afford to carry Gronk and a scrub TE in the second to last round. I'd still love to have him, but won't overpay if it costs me a valuable mid round selection to shore up my TE position.
I think you can get a solid fill-in for Gronk late. Here are some of the TEs ranked outside of the top 12 right now:
Martellus Bennett
Brandon Pettigrew
Antonio Gates
Brandon Pettigrew
Brandon Myers
Dustin Keller
Dwayne Allen
Jermaine Gresham
Jordan Cameron
I agree that if TE wasn't deep, taking Gronk in the 3rd/4th wouldn't be nearly as attractive.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Good article. I only play in one re-draft and we don't hold our draft until the Saturday right before week one - but even at that late date - Peterson fell to the end of the second round due to concerns that he may start off real slow and not fully recover all season - we know how that turned out.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Brandon Pettigrew isn't anything to write home about, but if you can double up with a 2nd Pettigrew then you might have something.
TheWick
Footballguy
I think its all great if you can get Gronk in the 3rd or 4th round and then grab a guy later as the insurance policy, but I simply don't think the risk was ever worth it where you were taking him in the first 6-7 players a few months ago Sigmund.
You can't win your league in the first 2 rounds but you can lose it.
I wouldn't shy away from Foster at all but with the way RBs are this year I don't see how you could.
You can't win your league in the first 2 rounds but you can lose it.
I wouldn't shy away from Foster at all but with the way RBs are this year I don't see how you could.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Inspired by Sigmund, I wrote this article on how to value Gronk is we knew he was going to miss a certain amount of games.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_valuing_rob_gronkowski
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_valuing_rob_gronkowski
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Not sure I agree with the Foster without Tate sentiment.I've reliably been able to grab Tate as my RB4 and in my opinion even with Foster healthy is a high RB3.In most of these situations its between Tate, Quizz, Bryce Brown, Zach Stacy and DWill. I think Tate has the highest floor of all of them.I guess I'm high on Tate? I've been targetting him even when I don't land Foster in pretty much every draft that I don't aim to take JStew and DWill. Good article none-the-less.
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Let's say Foster's 2013 goes like his 2011. You have two weeks to start Tate with confidence, and otherwise, he is just a what the heck flex. He had 5 startable weeks when Foster was in, but more often than not was a pretty weak play when Foster was active. That's not great value for an 8th round pick, and that still assumes Foster missing some games. If Foster doesn't miss any games, then Tate is basically injury/bye week/emergency filler. If Foster misses a lot of games, Tate has great value, but then that means you shanked your first round pick, assuming you took Foster and Tate. If you think Foster is too risky to carry without Tate, then you should maximize the potential value of your 1st and 8th round picks by taking someone other than Foster in the first, and then follow with Tate. If you think Foster will be fine, take him in the first and follow in the 8th (or a little earlier or later) with a sleeper RB that you like to have value this year even if the starter doesn't get hurt, or an RB behind a starter who is more likely to get hurt than Foster (Bernard, Ingram, ABrown, Woodhead...) Basically, in almost no scenario are Foster in the 1st and Tate in the 8th both going to be good picks. One will be great, and one will be a pick to regret.
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This is almost certainly true, but it could still make sense to do it from a risk management standpoint. You give up some upside for the guarantee (well close) to locking down the Texans backfield. If you are in an overall contest where you need to beat out thousands of teams, probably a bad strategy - but if you are in a 10-12 person league where you want to make the playoffs I could definitely see handcuffing the Texans backfield being in play.
You nailed it - are you aiming for a championship and more willing to risk a mess in the pursuit, or do you want to maximize chances of getting to the playoffs, which gives you a real shot to the win the title, but maybe not the best shot. I think this is a good question for all FF owners to ask themselves and understand going into drafts so that you don't do anything you instantly regret. I am in 16 team leagues with minimal WW pickups, where any of the 6 teams that make the playoffs can easily win if an untimely injury strikes a favorite. These leagues are more like marathons. I am in 12 team leagues that are top heavy and require aiming for greatness to even entertain a chance of winning the title.
As we always say - know your league size, lineups, and scoring - they can make the exact same move foolish or smart depending on the answer to those questions.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Fear isn't a draft killer, bad decisions and bad picks are draft killers.
I can almost imagine this article being written about Ryan Mathews and Michael Vick last year. :yuck:
The reality is that injuries DO matter. Boom or bust based off of injured players being potentially undervalued is certainly one way to win a championship, but there are other ways too. Getting undervalued players is the key in general. There are lots of ways to do that though. Some with much less risk.
I'll also say that the truth for most leagues is that once you make the playoffs, luck plays a much larger role in whether you win than during the regular season. How many 1 seeds actually win their fantasy title versus 6 seeds? Probably more, but not as much as we'd like to think. I think having a team that can make the playoffs is the biggest key to winning championships in general than shooting for the stars every year with high boom/bust guys.
I can almost imagine this article being written about Ryan Mathews and Michael Vick last year. :yuck:
The reality is that injuries DO matter. Boom or bust based off of injured players being potentially undervalued is certainly one way to win a championship, but there are other ways too. Getting undervalued players is the key in general. There are lots of ways to do that though. Some with much less risk.
I'll also say that the truth for most leagues is that once you make the playoffs, luck plays a much larger role in whether you win than during the regular season. How many 1 seeds actually win their fantasy title versus 6 seeds? Probably more, but not as much as we'd like to think. I think having a team that can make the playoffs is the biggest key to winning championships in general than shooting for the stars every year with high boom/bust guys.
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Mathews has never had nearly the success that Foster has had consistently for the last three years.
Gronk, when healthy, is arguably the most valuable player in FF.
I agree that luck plays a larger role in the playoffs that we want to admit it does, but having a truly superior team is exactly how you take luck out of the equation.
Specifically re: Gronk, we're talking about an investment of a 3rd or 4th round pick. If you can't make the playoffs any time your 3rd or 4th round pick busts, then you're probably not very good at this anyway...
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I agree that if you can get Gronk in the 3rd or 4th right now, that is good value and acceptable risk. That's a cheap price. Even bottom 2nd in larger leagues seems like acceptable risk.
Maybe it's just my perception and the talk on these boards, but it seems to me that je would go earlier than that in the majority of leagues if they drafted right now.
Maybe it's just my perception and the talk on these boards, but it seems to me that je would go earlier than that in the majority of leagues if they drafted right now.
Backside Pursuit
Footballguy
Respectfully, I think this is exactly backwards. Is Rashard Mendenhall going to take you to the title? Is Andre Brown? Fred Jackson, JStew, BJGE, or Mikel Leshoure? A year ago, this argument you are making was spot-on because (at least in my drafts) Tate was being grabbed in the 5th or 6th round. But the 8th? Many of the reasons why I like Foster have nothing to do with Foster (Solid OL, run-first philosophy, seemingly favorable schedule, seemingly favorable playoff schedule, etc.). Tate represents (potentially) a game-changer. Now if you are arguing that Bernard or Pierce or Brown or one of the Rams' backs is a wiser "gamble on greatness" pick, I might agree. But in the 8th round of a draft, I am looking for an RB4 (or RB5) with home run potential, not a reliable plodder who needs TDs to have any value.
We Tigers
Footballguy
He doesn't even crack the 3rd on FFC right now. 4.06 in 12-team leagues. That'll adjust as we get closer to the start of the season, but it's far from outlandish to think you could get him there. How far did Peterson fall in so many drafts last year?Graham is the one going late 2nd right now, which seems far more questionable.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
for Gronk, im worried and will bump him down accordingly.
Foster? meh a tweak in late May is nothing to worry about
Foster? meh a tweak in late May is nothing to worry about
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agreee that people are overreacting about Foster. Calf injury with no surgery, not a big deal.
But I strongly disagree with Gronkowski. The guy needs back surgery, and from what I can tell, he's having the same procedure done as was done in 2009 (just on a different disk). Maybe that information is wrong, but that's what I read.
If true, and the recovery time is a minimum, factored with the fact that he hasn't been working out and won't be able to workout leads me ponder if he will start the yearon the regular season PUP (miss first 6 weeks) and could miss more time than that.
So IMO, anyone that drafts Gronkowski will have to be prepared that he could miss half the season and may not be 100% even when he comes back. That to me makes taking him at all this year a dicey proposition. I guess if he dropped far enough he would be a consideration, but taking him in the 4th round would be too early in my book.
But I strongly disagree with Gronkowski. The guy needs back surgery, and from what I can tell, he's having the same procedure done as was done in 2009 (just on a different disk). Maybe that information is wrong, but that's what I read.
If true, and the recovery time is a minimum, factored with the fact that he hasn't been working out and won't be able to workout leads me ponder if he will start the yearon the regular season PUP (miss first 6 weeks) and could miss more time than that.
So IMO, anyone that drafts Gronkowski will have to be prepared that he could miss half the season and may not be 100% even when he comes back. That to me makes taking him at all this year a dicey proposition. I guess if he dropped far enough he would be a consideration, but taking him in the 4th round would be too early in my book.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
If Gronk misses 6 games and you pick him early, you are probably about 2-4 and need to get lucky to make the playoffs. If you plan to win this year he's going to really hurt you and could almost ruin your team by himself. I don't want anything to do with him unless he drops a lot.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
This is simply not true.
If you get THAT GUY in the first, he can win your league. Absolutely. Shaun Alexander. Tomlinson. Chris Johnson. Faulk. All won leagues from the first round in their record-setting years. They just carried teams all the way to the playoffs and to title games.
There is absolutely potential to win your league in the first round. You pick a guy who dominates that thoroughly? Gives you a LOT of room for error later in the draft and season.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I will gladly take Foster if he falls, but Gronk is feeling more and more like Manning's neck injury. I love this site but they constantly assured me that Manning would be fine until finally they change their tone a week before the season started; which was a little too late for most people. Gronk is on my avoid list at his current price.
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We Tigers
Footballguy
To me, 1-2 PPG separation from the likes of Witten/Gonzalez/Heath Miller/Aaron Hernandez doesn't merit taking a guy in round 2 when I can get one of the others 2-3 rounds later. Now, if you're projecting him to have another 1300/11 season, it's a different story. I'm not quite there yet, though.
His wrist injury clearly limited him last year. I would confidently take him in a PPR after the top 9 RBs and Calvin are gone.
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