FF Matchups (1 Viewer)

[Badm]

I know at this time of year, there is alot of discussions about overall projections for the year on players. I have had alot of success during the season playing matchups more than focusing on overall projections. I know the two go hand in hand for the most part, but knowing when a player is gonna break out with a huge week is just as important than simply plugging in the player that will produce overall through the season.

For example, I have been reviewing Richard Marshall's stats from last year and I noticed, his better games (Fantasy wise) came against teams that had strong run games. Against low to average running teams, his production was just average, but against solid running teams, his statistics escalated. The value of a player like this increases IMO because you know when to play him and when to sit him. Have you noticed other players that have trends like this, that we could discuss?

I have also noticed, for players outside the super elite, that when they have huge games, the following week is usually not as good. I suspect this is becuase the next team game plans specifically for that player.

 

[Jene Bramel]

There's a risk of paralysis by overanalysis and information overload, but there's lots of things that I'll consider when playing matchups or trying to project a weekly expectation, including...

***Expected total tackle opportunity (may include weather, IDP X's offensive strength, etc)

***Expected rush attempts against

***Expected pass attempts against

***Offensive strength (between the tackles rusher, outside threats, slot WR/TE matchups) and how Player X matches up

***Strength of offensive line matchup and quarterback awareness in the pocket

***Competition for tackles by surrounding cast

***Likelihood that opposing offense might target IDP X (in coverage, run at the WLB, etc)

***How hot a player may be in recent weeks

***Likelihood of additional big play opps within scheme against opposing offense

***Situational and rotational concerns

There's probably a few more factors that can be considered, too, but that's what came to mind.

 

[CJCyclone]

I have wanted to post this topic for years to Jene. I've been doing IDP for about 17 years now. I have tried to develop (very hard to continually update) a system for years, in which I will break down the STAT LINE for the individual players on defense, by position. Example, I am trying to figure out what LB's to start. (let's say we start 3). My hypothetical options:

James Lauranitis, MLB vs. Saints

Kirk Morrison, MLB vs. Rams

Michael Boley, SLB vs Redskins

Gary Brackett, MLB vs Dolphins

Geno Hayes, WLB vs Packers

What I have wanted to do in the past is create a spreadsheet where I can see what were the STATS AGAINST each of these teams mentioned above (Saints, Rams, Redskins, etc) for each LB position. (MLB, WLB, SLB). So if I see that MLB's are averaging 13 points/tackles against the Rams, I know I need to start Kirk Morrison. And if the Packers are only giving up an average of 3 points/tackles, I would keep Geno Hayes on the bench.

I have done this for all DE/DT postions and Free and Strong safeties.......and it is pretty damn accurate. Offenses may show different changes here and there, but their offense IS there offense. I have been very successful using a spreadsheet like this, but the statistical inputting of numbers is a huge task for a "lack of time, computer inept" person like myself.

I am thinking a superstud like Bramel may be able to pull something like this off. I know it really works. Once you get like 6 weeks data, it gets pretty easy to spot the trends. What do you think Jene?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I have wanted to post this topic for years to Jene. I've been doing IDP for about 17 years now. I have tried to develop (very hard to continually update) a system for years, in which I will break down the STAT LINE for the individual players on defense, by position. Example, I am trying to figure out what LB's to start. (let's say we start 3). My hypothetical options:

James Lauranitis, MLB vs. Saints

Kirk Morrison, MLB vs. Rams

Michael Boley, SLB vs Redskins

Gary Brackett, MLB vs Dolphins

Geno Hayes, WLB vs Packers

What I have wanted to do in the past is create a spreadsheet where I can see what were the STATS AGAINST each of these teams mentioned above (Saints, Rams, Redskins, etc) for each LB position. (MLB, WLB, SLB). So if I see that MLB's are averaging 13 points/tackles against the Rams, I know I need to start Kirk Morrison. And if the Packers are only giving up an average of 3 points/tackles, I would keep Geno Hayes on the bench.

I have done this for all DE/DT postions and Free and Strong safeties.......and it is pretty damn accurate. Offenses may show different changes here and there, but their offense IS there offense. I have been very successful using a spreadsheet like this, but the statistical inputting of numbers is a huge task for a "lack of time, computer inept" person like myself.

I am thinking a superstud like Bramel may be able to pull something like this off. I know it really works. Once you get like 6 weeks data, it gets pretty easy to spot the trends. What do you think Jene?

Norton does exactly that and uses it to work through his weekly projections. I don't know if it's in a format that can be easily posted to the weekly subscriber content or not, but you might PM/email him about it.We have the IDP Matchup Analyzer tool, which allows searches like ILBs vs X offense for Weeks A thru B from Doug Drinen's database. You'll have to do a little tallying of stats with it and some inference about 3-4 vs 4-3 fronts or SLB vs WLB, but it very nearly accomplishes what you're looking for.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't have time to do the data entry on that, but I think the Matchup Analyzer is close enough to what you're looking for. Down the line, we may be able to accurately designate SLB or WLB, SS vs FS etc in our database such that those numbers are even more accurate, but it would be 2011 at the earliest on that.