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Finding value in auctions (1 Viewer)

TALL hobbit

Footballguy
I'm curious to hear from the more experienced auction players.

How do you adjust for the volatility of an auction in terms of targeting your sleeper and value picks? In the snake drafts I've been in - ADP and draft slot tend to provide a pretty accurate picture of how early you must go to guarantee yourself a player.

For auction, drafts, however, it seems riskier to count on getting a player at his average auction value - and thus tougher to count on certain values you've identified ahead of time.

Are the players who end up on your team at a great value typically: 1. guys you identified ahead of time and targeted. or 2. complete surprises that tended to fall into your lap?

It seems like there's a balance to be struck between not tipping your hand on a sleeper and thus getting people to bid him up - versus waiting too long on a sleeper, while other players go to other teams, only to discover that another owner(s) also has your "sleeper" targeted.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
I'm curious to hear from the more experienced auction players.

How do you adjust for the volatility of an auction in terms of targeting your sleeper and value picks? In the snake drafts I've been in - ADP and draft slot tend to provide a pretty accurate picture of how early you must go to guarantee yourself a player.

For auction, drafts, however, it seems riskier to count on getting a player at his average auction value - and thus tougher to count on certain values you've identified ahead of time.

Are the players who end up on your team at a great value typically: 1. guys you identified ahead of time and targeted. or 2. complete surprises that tended to fall into your lap?

It seems like there's a balance to be struck between not tipping your hand on a sleeper and thus getting people to bid him up - versus waiting too long on a sleeper, while other players go to other teams, only to discover that another owner(s) also has your "sleeper" targeted.
Three good discussions here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684903&hl=auction

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=685244&hl=auction

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684107&hl=auction

 

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