BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Fanta...dftboardps1.htm
By Pat Fitzmaurice
Aug. 1, 2007
Updated at 2:55 p.m. EDT, Aug. 2
This is the first of four preseason draft boards compiled by ProFootballWeekly.com fantasy analyst Pat Fitzmaurice. It will run concurrently on this site with the PFW consensus draft board throughout the preseason.
We base our rankings on the following scoring system: For skill-position players, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, one point for every 20 passing yards, six points for a TD run or catch, four points for a TD pass, two points for a two-point conversion run or catch, one point for a two-point conversion pass. For kickers, three points for FGs of 18-39 yards, four points for FGs of 40-49 yards, and five points for FGs of 50-plus yards. Defensive rankings are based primarily on points allowed, yardage allowed and sack potential.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, Colts
Carson Palmer, Bengals
Drew Brees, Saints
Marc Bulger, Rams
Tom Brady, Patriots
Donovan McNabb, Eagles
Vince Young, Titans
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Eli Manning, Giants
Jon Kitna, Lions
Brett Favre, Packers
Jay Cutler, Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Matt Leinart, Cardinals
Philip Rivers, Chargers
Jake Delhomme, Panthers
J.P. Losman, Bills
Alex Smith, 49ers
Rex Grossman, Bears
Matt Schaub, Texans
Chad Pennington, Jets
Jason Campbell, Redskins
Steve McNair, Ravens
Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
Jeff Garcia, 49ers
Joey Harrington, Falcons
Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
Trent Green, Dolphins
Brady Quinn, Browns
Damon Huard, Chiefs
Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
John Beck, Dolphins
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
Charlie Frye, Browns
David Carr, Panthers
Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
Kyle Boller, Ravens
Brian Griese, Bears
Matt Cassel, Patriots
Gus Frerotte, Rams
Kellen Clemens, Jets
David Garrard, Jaguars
Kurt Warner, Cardinals
Sage Rosenfels, Texans
Charlie Batch, Steelers
Josh McCown, Raiders
Mark Brunell, Redskins
Chris Simms, Buccaneers
Doug Johnson, Bengals
Kerry Collins, Titans
Patrick Ramsey, Broncos
Drew Stanton, Lions
Dan Orlovsky, Lions
Seneca Wallace, Seahawks
Brad Johnson, Cowboys
Billy Volek, Chargers
Jamie Martin, Saints
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Trent Dilfer, 49ers
Charlie Whitehurst, Chargers
Brooks Bollinger, Vikings
Chris Redman, Falcons
Trent Edwards, Bills
Jared Lorenzen, Giants
Kevin Kolb, Eagles
Craig Nall, Bills
Anthony Wright, Giants
Troy Smith, Ravens
Bruce Gradkowski, Buccaneers
A.J. Feeley, Eagles
Jim Sorgi, Colts
Quinn Gray, Jaguars
Jake Plummer, Buccaneers (has not reported)
Michael Vick, Falcons (status pending)
Position overview
It’s usually a good idea to bypass the top quarterbacks in fantasy drafts and instead load up on running backs, but this year might be an exception. The top four QBs on the board figure to put up big numbers in high-powered passing attacks. Brady and McNabb are just a notch behind the top four. (McNabb has better top-end potential than Brady but is a much bigger gamble because of his recent injury history.) It’s still risky to grab a quarterback before you have two running backs in hand, but if you can get one of the top six after taking two running backs, go for it. There’s better value at the top of the QB list than at the top of the WR list this year.
After the top six, things get dicey. Young is a star in the making, but it may be feast or famine with him from week to week depending on how much running he does in any given game. Kitna is assured of putting up big yardage numbers as long as he’s in the lineup, but the Lions could dump him if they fall out of the playoff hunt. Romo, Cutler and Leinart are intriguing young passers who may hit rough patches at times because of their youth. A lot of people are down on Eli Manning following last year’s late-season slump, but with another year under his belt and no more Tiki Barber running the ball 20-25 times a game for the Giants, the younger Manning could surprise. Fantasy owners haven’t been giving Brett Favre much respect in his twilight years, but with Green Bay’s running game iffy at best, Favre will be chucking it all year — and you know his durability isn’t an issue.
Romo has to be ranked in the top 10 based on his per-game production, but something about him gives me the willies. He seems a little too obsessed with the trappings of celebrity. Let the buyer beware.
This may be the right time to buy into Ben Roethlisberger. There are indications that the traditionally run-loving Steelers will open up the offense under new head coach Mike Tomlin. Plus, Roethlisberger had a nice, quiet offseason (for a change).
Likely to be overvalued: Romo, Kitna, McNair
Likely to be undervalued: E. Manning, Favre, Roethlisberger
Deep sleepers: Beck, Clemens
Top of page
Running backs
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Steven Jackson, Rams
Larry Johnson, Chiefs
Frank Gore, 49ers
Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
Joseph Addai, Colts
Brian Westbrook, Eagles
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Reggie Bush, Saints
Willie Parker, Steelers
Laurence Maroney, Patriots
Rudi Johnson, Bengals
Willis McGahee, Ravens
Travis Henry, Broncos
Edgerrin James, Cardinals
Cedric Benson, Bears
Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Clinton Portis, Redskins
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Deuce McAllister, Saints
Marion Barber, Cowboys
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Thomas Jones, Jets
Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
Ahman Green, Texans
Jerious Norwood, Falcons
Warrick Dunn, Falcons
Julius Jones, Cowboys
Jamal Lewis, Browns
Tatum Bell, Lions
LaMont Jordan, Raiders
Vernand Morency, Packers
Ladell Betts, Redskins
Leon Washington, Jets
Reuben Droughns, Giants
Fred Taylor, Jaguars
Chester Taylor, Vikings
Brandon Jackson, Packers
Mike Bell, Broncos
Kevin Jones, Lions
Michael Turner, Chargers
Chris Brown, Titans
DeShaun Foster, Panthers
LenDale White, Titans
Anthony Thomas, Bills
Musa Smith, Ravens
Adrian Peterson, Bears
Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
Lorenzo Booker, Dolphins
Dominic Rhodes, Raiders (suspended for first four games)
Chris Henry, Titans
Michael Pittman, Buccaneers
DeDe Dorsey, Colts
Ron Dayne, Texans
Sammy Morris, Patriots
Kevan Barlow, Steelers
Brian Leonard, Rams
Maurice Morris, Seahawks
Michael Robinson, 49ers
Mike Anderson, Ravens
Garrett Wolfe, Bears
Priest Holmes, Chiefs
J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
Kenny Irons, Bengals
Wali Lundy, Texans
Kenny Watson, Bengals
Chris Perry, Bengals
Mewelde Moore, Vikings
Cedric Houston, Jets (left camp)
Kevin Faulk, Patriots
Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
Maurice Hicks, 49ers
Michael Bennett, Chiefs
Greg Jones, Jaguars
T.J. Duckett, Lions
Tyson Thompson, Cowboys
Eric Shelton, Panthers
Antonio Pittman, Saints
Tony Hunt, Eagles
Najeh Davenport, Steelers
Brian Calhoun, Lions
Cecil Sapp, Broncos
Ryan Moats, Eagles
Reagan Mauia, Dolphins
Samkon Gado, Texans
Jerome Harrison, Browns
Jason Wright, Browns
Verron Haynes, Steelers
Travis Minor, Rams
Position overview
There’s good news and bad news with regard to the leaguewide trend toward the running back-by-committee. The bad news is that the safe bets are going to disappear more quickly than usual. The good news is that you’ll have a better chance of hitting the bull’s-eye with the darts you throw at the RB position beyond the first two or three rounds. The reasonably safe bets run out after the top 15 or so, but then you have a better than 50-50 chance to get a productive season out of the next 20 or so running backs on the board.
Congratulations to the Charlie Buckets among you who hold the golden ticket — the first pick in your (non-keeper) draft and the right to draft consensus draft-board topper Tomlinson. It’s a better prize than a tour of Willie Wonka’s place. But who’s No. 2? It’s a tough choice between Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson, but there seems to be a feeling in some quarters that Johnson has already hit the acme while Jackson is still on the way up. Gore, Alexander and Addai figure to be consensus first-rounders, and then things get interesting.
Where’s the love for Jones-Drew? He deserves to be a top-10 pick. If you throw out Weeks One and Two, when he barely played because the Jaguars still hadn’t figured out what a little gem they had, Jones-Drew averaged roughly 100 combined rushing-receiving yards per game and a touchdown per game. And that was in a platoon situation with a surprisingly healthy Fred Taylor. Jones-Drew’s workload will only increase.
A lot of owners have probably sworn off Reggie Bush after his slow start last season, but he still wound up putting up good yardage numbers and started to reach the endzone more regularly as the season went on. Dismiss him at your own peril. Fantasy owners just have to get used to the idea that Bush won’t put up conventional RB numbers; there’s a good chance he’ll once again finish with more receiving yards than rushing yards, as was the case in his rookie year.
A lot of people are sky-high on Henry, but I’m wary. A lot of fantasy dreams have died in the Denver backfield over the years. Mike Shanahan changes running backs the way some people change socks.
James will slip in a lot of drafts this year, but there may still be hope for him. If Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt uses the same kind of offense he used in Pittsburgh, James will be operating in a more RB-friendly environment.
Likely to be overvalued: Henry, Portis, Lewis, L. White
Likely to be undervalued: Jones-Drew, Norwood, M. Bell
Deep sleepers: C. Brown, M. Smith, Booker
Top of page
Wide receivers
Steve Smith, Panthers
Terrell Owens, Cowboys
Chad Johnson, Bengals
Marvin Harrison, Colts
Reggie Wayne, Colts
Torry Holt, Rams
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
Lee Evans, Bills
Javon Walker, Broncos
Roy Williams, Lions
Marques Colston, Saints
Donald Driver, Packers
Plaxico Burress, Giants
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Andre Johnson, Texans
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
Randy Moss, Patriots
Braylon Edwards, Browns
Calvin Johnson, Lions
Hines Ward, Steelers
Laveranues Coles, Jets
Santana Moss, Redskins
Greg Jennings, Packers
Chris Chambers, Dolphins
Deion Branch, Seahawks
Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
Reggie Brown, Eagles
Darrell Jackson, 49ers
Devery Henderson, Saints
Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
Santonio Holmes, Steelers
Mark Clayton, Ravens
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Bernard Berrian, Bears
Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
Terry Glenn, Cowboys
Donté Stallworth, Patriots
D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
Isaac Bruce, Rams
Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
Derrick Mason, Ravens
Joe Horn, Falcons
Kevin Curtis, Eagles
Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
Brandon Jones, Titans
Michael Jenkins, Falcons
Jerry Porter, Raiders
Ronald Curry, Raiders
Marty Booker, Dolphins
Matt Jones, Jaguars
Wes Welker, Patriots
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
Reggie Williams, Jaguars
Joe Jurevicius, Browns
Mike Furrey, Lions
Drew Bennett, Rams
Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
Brandon Marshall, Broncos
Troy Williamson, Vikings
Keenan McCardell, Texans
Bryant Johnson, Cardinals
Arnaz Battle, 49ers
Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Drew Carter, Panthers
Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins
Nate Washington, Steelers
Reche Caldwell, Patriots
Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
Eric Moulds, Titans
Sidney Rice, Vikings
Bobby Wade, Vikings
Terrance Copper, Saints
Hank Baskett, Eagles
Robert Meachem, Saints
Michael Clayton, Buccaneers
Chris Henry, Bengals (suspended for first eight games)
Eric Parker, Chargers
Demetrius Williams, Ravens
Mark Bradley, Bears
Maurice Stovall, Buccaneers
Sinorice Moss, Giants
Cedrick Wilson, Steelers
Tab Perry, Bengals
Brandon Stokley, Broncos
Roddy White, Falcons
Josh Reed, Bills
Amani Toomer, Giants
Jeff Webb, Chiefs
Samie Parker, Chiefs
Rod Smith, Broncos
Greg Lewis, Eagles
Bobby Engram, Seahawks
Nate Burleson, Seahawks
Roydell Williams, Titans
Rashied Davis, Bears
Brandon Lloyd, Redskins
James Jones, Packers
Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
Steve Smith, Giants
Aaron Moorehead, Colts
Billy McMullen, Vikings
Marcus Robinson, Lions
Ashley Lelie, 49ers
Peerless Price, Bills
Keary Colbert, Panthers
Devin Hester, Bears
David Givens, Titans
Brad Smith, Jets
Mike Williams, Raiders
Shaun McDonald, Lions
Malcom Floyd, Chargers
Kevin Walter, Texans
Courtney Roby, Titans
Justin Gage, Titans
Derek Hagan, Dolphins
Craig Davis, Chargers
Tim Carter, Browns
Roscoe Parrish, Bills
Johnnie Morant, Raiders
Doug Gabriel, Raiders
Justin McCareins, Jets
Ruvell Martin, Packers
Position overview
Wide receiver is an unsettling position this year. First of all, there’s no consensus No. 1 — you could make a decent case for any of the top half-dozen receivers on this list. And yet none of the top receivers is foolproof. Smith is physically fragile. Owens is mentally fragile. Colts teammates Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are studs who play in a terrific offense, but there are weeks when one takes a backseat to the other. Ditto for the Bengals’ Chad Johnson and his No. 7-ranked Cincy teammate, T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Even the normally reliable Torry Holt seems like an uncertain play this year. He was held without a TD in eight of his last 10 games in 2006, and he only had one 100-yard game over that span.
Fantasy owners looking to get the most bang for their buck at this position should grab at least two or three of the first 40 receivers to come off the board, and yet wait until about 10 receivers have come off the board before making a move. Why? Because Nos. 1 through 6 are likely to be overvalued; because Nos. 8 through about 17 are tightly bunched, so it makes sense to maximize value by grabbing whichever member of that group slips; and because Nos. 18 through about 35-40 are also pretty tightly bunched but could go in virtually any order, so it will be easy for fantasy owners to bob and weave as needed and still wind up with another receiver or two from that tier. There’s no sense zeroing in on any single receiver from the top 40. Your best bet is to operate by feel. Play the draft instead of letting the draft play you.
Once you get beyond the top 35 or 40, things get hit-or-miss in a hurry, with a grab bag of aging vets, unproven youngsters and talented teases (I’m looking at you, Matt Jones) occupying the next tier. It’s a sketchy group, but two of the guys I really like from this bunch are Brandon Jones and Patrick Crayton. Jones is easily the most talented of Tennessee’s mediocre receiving corps and has a chance to be a beneficiary of Vince Young’s magic touch. Crayton is just a Terry Glenn injury or a Terrell Owens … um, something, away from a starting job, and with his talent he may even be able to score 6-7 TDs if he stays a No. 3 receiver all year.
Likely to be overvalued: All of the top six on the board, R. Moss, Ward, D. Jackson, Furrey
Likely to be undervalued: Edwards, Jennings, B. Jones
Deep sleepers: Henry (tuck him away for late in the season), Webb, J. Jones
Top of page
Tight ends
Antonio Gates, Chargers
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
Jeremy Shockey, Giants
Vernon Davis, 49ers
Todd Heap, Ravens
Chris Cooley, Redskins
Alge Crumpler, Falcons
Kellen Winslow, Browns
L.J. Smith, Eagles
Ben Watson, Patriots
Jason Witten, Cowboys
Dallas Clark, Colts
Heath Miller, Steelers
Tony Scheffler, Broncos
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Daniel Graham, Broncos
Owen Daniels, Texans
Greg Olsen, Bears
Eric Johnson, Saints
Desmond Clark, Bears
Ben Utecht, Colts
Randy McMichael, Rams
Bo Scaife, Titans
Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
Alex Smith, Buccaneers
Ben Troupe, Titans
Leonard Pope, Cardinals
David Martin, Dolphins
Chris Baker, Jets
Jerramy Stevens, Buccaneers
George Wrighster, Jaguars
Donald Lee, Packers
Zach Miller, Raiders
Steve Heiden, Browns
Dan Campbell, Lions
John Madsen, Raiders
Daniel Wilcox, Ravens
Robert Royal, Bills
Bryan Fletcher, Colts
Reggie Kelly, Bengals
Bubba Franks, Packers
Jeff King, Panthers
David Thomas, Patriots
Matt Schobel, Eagles
Stephen Alexander, Broncos
Anthony Fasano, Cowboys
Ben Patrick, Cardinals
Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings
Jeb Putzier, Texans
Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins, Jaguars
Position overview
No sense getting impatient at tight end. Good things — or at least serviceable things — come to those who wait. Gates is still the cream of the crop, but no sense reaching for him too early — he’s not as lethal a weapon with Philip Rivers quarterbacking the Chargers as he was when Drew Brees was around.
Nos. 2 through 5 are pretty close. Young Vernon Davis probably won’t be one of the first five tight ends to come off the board in your league, so consider him to be a buying opportunity. This is the chance to get in on the ground floor of something special. Davis has the speed and savvy to be a future stud on a team that doesn’t have a lot of other good pass catchers. He came on strong at the end of last season and figures to build on that strong finish as long as he can stay healthy.
Crumpler and Clark are going to be overrated. Clark is always overrated, and Crumpler won’t be effective without QB Michael Vick, who used the big tight end as a crutch.
Kellen Winslow would be rated higher but is a major risk coming off microfracture surgery.
A couple of sleepers I like are Scheffler and Scaife. Scheffler was invisible in his rookie year until Jay Cutler became the Broncos’ quarterback. Cutler and Scheffler had developed good chemistry in the preseason, and it carried over to the latter part of the regular season. With Daniel Graham joining the Broncos in the offseason, fantasy owners will overlook Scheffler. Scaife figures to be in sync with former Texas teammate Vince Young, and the fact that the Titans have one of the league’s weakest WR collections will work to Scaife’s advantage.
Likely to be overvalued: Crumpler, Winslow, Clark
Likely to be undervalued: Davis, Scheffler, Utecht, Scaife
Deep sleepers: Madsen, D. Thomas
Top of page
Placekickers
Adam Vinatieri, Colts
Nate Kaeding, Chargers
Robbie Gould, Bears
Shayne Graham, Bengals
Jeff Wilkins, Rams
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
Neil Rackers, Cardinals
Jason Elam, Broncos
Josh Brown, Seahawks
Matt Stover, Ravens
Mike Nugent, Jets
Josh Scobey, Jaguars
Joe Nedney, 49ers
Olindo Mare, Saints
John Kasay, Panthers
David Akers, Eagles
Rian Lindell, Bills
Jeff Reed, Steelers
Cowboys kicker
Jason Hanson, Lions
Jay Feely, Dolphins
Ryan Longwell, Vikings
Rob Bironas, Titans
Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
Phil Dawson, Browns
Lawrence Tynes, Giants
Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Justin Medlock, Chiefs
Packers kicker
Falcons kicker
Shaun Suisham, Redskins
Kris Brown, Texans
Position overview
The advice is the same as ever: Don’t draft kickers too early. It’s just way too unpredictable a position to bother sinking a middle-round draft pick into a placekicker. Make sure you’re one of the last guys in the league to dip into the kicker pool.
Likely to be overvalued: Akers, Longwell
Likely to be undervalued: Gostkowski, Nugent, Nedney
Deep sleepers: Bironas, Medlock
Top of page
Defenses
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Miami Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants
Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams
Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans
Position overview
It’s hard to get into great detail here because defensive scoring varies so widely from league to league. The top six defenses should be pretty safe bets, and the next six are reasonably sound bets. Oakland and Minnesota have good defenses, but those defenses could be undermined by atrocious offenses that will keep their defensive teammates on the field for too long.
Take note of two NFC West defenses going in opposite directions: The Cardinals could be on the verge of becoming a very good defensive team, and the Seahawks slipped badly last season and may be even worse this season.
I like the Saints' defense this season simply because the Saints play in a division full of bad offenses.
Oh, and one last thing: Do not, under any circumstances, try to live off the past glory of the Buccaneers' defense.
Likely to be overvalued: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Likely to be undervalued: New Orleans, Green Bay
Deep sleeper: Houston
By Pat Fitzmaurice
Aug. 1, 2007
Updated at 2:55 p.m. EDT, Aug. 2
This is the first of four preseason draft boards compiled by ProFootballWeekly.com fantasy analyst Pat Fitzmaurice. It will run concurrently on this site with the PFW consensus draft board throughout the preseason.
We base our rankings on the following scoring system: For skill-position players, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, one point for every 20 passing yards, six points for a TD run or catch, four points for a TD pass, two points for a two-point conversion run or catch, one point for a two-point conversion pass. For kickers, three points for FGs of 18-39 yards, four points for FGs of 40-49 yards, and five points for FGs of 50-plus yards. Defensive rankings are based primarily on points allowed, yardage allowed and sack potential.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, Colts
Carson Palmer, Bengals
Drew Brees, Saints
Marc Bulger, Rams
Tom Brady, Patriots
Donovan McNabb, Eagles
Vince Young, Titans
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Eli Manning, Giants
Jon Kitna, Lions
Brett Favre, Packers
Jay Cutler, Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Matt Leinart, Cardinals
Philip Rivers, Chargers
Jake Delhomme, Panthers
J.P. Losman, Bills
Alex Smith, 49ers
Rex Grossman, Bears
Matt Schaub, Texans
Chad Pennington, Jets
Jason Campbell, Redskins
Steve McNair, Ravens
Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
Jeff Garcia, 49ers
Joey Harrington, Falcons
Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
Trent Green, Dolphins
Brady Quinn, Browns
Damon Huard, Chiefs
Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
John Beck, Dolphins
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
Charlie Frye, Browns
David Carr, Panthers
Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
Kyle Boller, Ravens
Brian Griese, Bears
Matt Cassel, Patriots
Gus Frerotte, Rams
Kellen Clemens, Jets
David Garrard, Jaguars
Kurt Warner, Cardinals
Sage Rosenfels, Texans
Charlie Batch, Steelers
Josh McCown, Raiders
Mark Brunell, Redskins
Chris Simms, Buccaneers
Doug Johnson, Bengals
Kerry Collins, Titans
Patrick Ramsey, Broncos
Drew Stanton, Lions
Dan Orlovsky, Lions
Seneca Wallace, Seahawks
Brad Johnson, Cowboys
Billy Volek, Chargers
Jamie Martin, Saints
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Trent Dilfer, 49ers
Charlie Whitehurst, Chargers
Brooks Bollinger, Vikings
Chris Redman, Falcons
Trent Edwards, Bills
Jared Lorenzen, Giants
Kevin Kolb, Eagles
Craig Nall, Bills
Anthony Wright, Giants
Troy Smith, Ravens
Bruce Gradkowski, Buccaneers
A.J. Feeley, Eagles
Jim Sorgi, Colts
Quinn Gray, Jaguars
Jake Plummer, Buccaneers (has not reported)
Michael Vick, Falcons (status pending)
Position overview
It’s usually a good idea to bypass the top quarterbacks in fantasy drafts and instead load up on running backs, but this year might be an exception. The top four QBs on the board figure to put up big numbers in high-powered passing attacks. Brady and McNabb are just a notch behind the top four. (McNabb has better top-end potential than Brady but is a much bigger gamble because of his recent injury history.) It’s still risky to grab a quarterback before you have two running backs in hand, but if you can get one of the top six after taking two running backs, go for it. There’s better value at the top of the QB list than at the top of the WR list this year.
After the top six, things get dicey. Young is a star in the making, but it may be feast or famine with him from week to week depending on how much running he does in any given game. Kitna is assured of putting up big yardage numbers as long as he’s in the lineup, but the Lions could dump him if they fall out of the playoff hunt. Romo, Cutler and Leinart are intriguing young passers who may hit rough patches at times because of their youth. A lot of people are down on Eli Manning following last year’s late-season slump, but with another year under his belt and no more Tiki Barber running the ball 20-25 times a game for the Giants, the younger Manning could surprise. Fantasy owners haven’t been giving Brett Favre much respect in his twilight years, but with Green Bay’s running game iffy at best, Favre will be chucking it all year — and you know his durability isn’t an issue.
Romo has to be ranked in the top 10 based on his per-game production, but something about him gives me the willies. He seems a little too obsessed with the trappings of celebrity. Let the buyer beware.
This may be the right time to buy into Ben Roethlisberger. There are indications that the traditionally run-loving Steelers will open up the offense under new head coach Mike Tomlin. Plus, Roethlisberger had a nice, quiet offseason (for a change).
Likely to be overvalued: Romo, Kitna, McNair
Likely to be undervalued: E. Manning, Favre, Roethlisberger
Deep sleepers: Beck, Clemens
Top of page
Running backs
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Steven Jackson, Rams
Larry Johnson, Chiefs
Frank Gore, 49ers
Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
Joseph Addai, Colts
Brian Westbrook, Eagles
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Reggie Bush, Saints
Willie Parker, Steelers
Laurence Maroney, Patriots
Rudi Johnson, Bengals
Willis McGahee, Ravens
Travis Henry, Broncos
Edgerrin James, Cardinals
Cedric Benson, Bears
Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Clinton Portis, Redskins
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Deuce McAllister, Saints
Marion Barber, Cowboys
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Thomas Jones, Jets
Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
Ahman Green, Texans
Jerious Norwood, Falcons
Warrick Dunn, Falcons
Julius Jones, Cowboys
Jamal Lewis, Browns
Tatum Bell, Lions
LaMont Jordan, Raiders
Vernand Morency, Packers
Ladell Betts, Redskins
Leon Washington, Jets
Reuben Droughns, Giants
Fred Taylor, Jaguars
Chester Taylor, Vikings
Brandon Jackson, Packers
Mike Bell, Broncos
Kevin Jones, Lions
Michael Turner, Chargers
Chris Brown, Titans
DeShaun Foster, Panthers
LenDale White, Titans
Anthony Thomas, Bills
Musa Smith, Ravens
Adrian Peterson, Bears
Correll Buckhalter, Eagles
Lorenzo Booker, Dolphins
Dominic Rhodes, Raiders (suspended for first four games)
Chris Henry, Titans
Michael Pittman, Buccaneers
DeDe Dorsey, Colts
Ron Dayne, Texans
Sammy Morris, Patriots
Kevan Barlow, Steelers
Brian Leonard, Rams
Maurice Morris, Seahawks
Michael Robinson, 49ers
Mike Anderson, Ravens
Garrett Wolfe, Bears
Priest Holmes, Chiefs
J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
Kenny Irons, Bengals
Wali Lundy, Texans
Kenny Watson, Bengals
Chris Perry, Bengals
Mewelde Moore, Vikings
Cedric Houston, Jets (left camp)
Kevin Faulk, Patriots
Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
Maurice Hicks, 49ers
Michael Bennett, Chiefs
Greg Jones, Jaguars
T.J. Duckett, Lions
Tyson Thompson, Cowboys
Eric Shelton, Panthers
Antonio Pittman, Saints
Tony Hunt, Eagles
Najeh Davenport, Steelers
Brian Calhoun, Lions
Cecil Sapp, Broncos
Ryan Moats, Eagles
Reagan Mauia, Dolphins
Samkon Gado, Texans
Jerome Harrison, Browns
Jason Wright, Browns
Verron Haynes, Steelers
Travis Minor, Rams
Position overview
There’s good news and bad news with regard to the leaguewide trend toward the running back-by-committee. The bad news is that the safe bets are going to disappear more quickly than usual. The good news is that you’ll have a better chance of hitting the bull’s-eye with the darts you throw at the RB position beyond the first two or three rounds. The reasonably safe bets run out after the top 15 or so, but then you have a better than 50-50 chance to get a productive season out of the next 20 or so running backs on the board.
Congratulations to the Charlie Buckets among you who hold the golden ticket — the first pick in your (non-keeper) draft and the right to draft consensus draft-board topper Tomlinson. It’s a better prize than a tour of Willie Wonka’s place. But who’s No. 2? It’s a tough choice between Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson, but there seems to be a feeling in some quarters that Johnson has already hit the acme while Jackson is still on the way up. Gore, Alexander and Addai figure to be consensus first-rounders, and then things get interesting.
Where’s the love for Jones-Drew? He deserves to be a top-10 pick. If you throw out Weeks One and Two, when he barely played because the Jaguars still hadn’t figured out what a little gem they had, Jones-Drew averaged roughly 100 combined rushing-receiving yards per game and a touchdown per game. And that was in a platoon situation with a surprisingly healthy Fred Taylor. Jones-Drew’s workload will only increase.
A lot of owners have probably sworn off Reggie Bush after his slow start last season, but he still wound up putting up good yardage numbers and started to reach the endzone more regularly as the season went on. Dismiss him at your own peril. Fantasy owners just have to get used to the idea that Bush won’t put up conventional RB numbers; there’s a good chance he’ll once again finish with more receiving yards than rushing yards, as was the case in his rookie year.
A lot of people are sky-high on Henry, but I’m wary. A lot of fantasy dreams have died in the Denver backfield over the years. Mike Shanahan changes running backs the way some people change socks.
James will slip in a lot of drafts this year, but there may still be hope for him. If Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt uses the same kind of offense he used in Pittsburgh, James will be operating in a more RB-friendly environment.
Likely to be overvalued: Henry, Portis, Lewis, L. White
Likely to be undervalued: Jones-Drew, Norwood, M. Bell
Deep sleepers: C. Brown, M. Smith, Booker
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Wide receivers
Steve Smith, Panthers
Terrell Owens, Cowboys
Chad Johnson, Bengals
Marvin Harrison, Colts
Reggie Wayne, Colts
Torry Holt, Rams
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
Lee Evans, Bills
Javon Walker, Broncos
Roy Williams, Lions
Marques Colston, Saints
Donald Driver, Packers
Plaxico Burress, Giants
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Andre Johnson, Texans
Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
Randy Moss, Patriots
Braylon Edwards, Browns
Calvin Johnson, Lions
Hines Ward, Steelers
Laveranues Coles, Jets
Santana Moss, Redskins
Greg Jennings, Packers
Chris Chambers, Dolphins
Deion Branch, Seahawks
Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
Reggie Brown, Eagles
Darrell Jackson, 49ers
Devery Henderson, Saints
Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
Santonio Holmes, Steelers
Mark Clayton, Ravens
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Bernard Berrian, Bears
Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
Terry Glenn, Cowboys
Donté Stallworth, Patriots
D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
Isaac Bruce, Rams
Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
Derrick Mason, Ravens
Joe Horn, Falcons
Kevin Curtis, Eagles
Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
Brandon Jones, Titans
Michael Jenkins, Falcons
Jerry Porter, Raiders
Ronald Curry, Raiders
Marty Booker, Dolphins
Matt Jones, Jaguars
Wes Welker, Patriots
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
Reggie Williams, Jaguars
Joe Jurevicius, Browns
Mike Furrey, Lions
Drew Bennett, Rams
Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
Brandon Marshall, Broncos
Troy Williamson, Vikings
Keenan McCardell, Texans
Bryant Johnson, Cardinals
Arnaz Battle, 49ers
Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Drew Carter, Panthers
Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins
Nate Washington, Steelers
Reche Caldwell, Patriots
Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
Eric Moulds, Titans
Sidney Rice, Vikings
Bobby Wade, Vikings
Terrance Copper, Saints
Hank Baskett, Eagles
Robert Meachem, Saints
Michael Clayton, Buccaneers
Chris Henry, Bengals (suspended for first eight games)
Eric Parker, Chargers
Demetrius Williams, Ravens
Mark Bradley, Bears
Maurice Stovall, Buccaneers
Sinorice Moss, Giants
Cedrick Wilson, Steelers
Tab Perry, Bengals
Brandon Stokley, Broncos
Roddy White, Falcons
Josh Reed, Bills
Amani Toomer, Giants
Jeff Webb, Chiefs
Samie Parker, Chiefs
Rod Smith, Broncos
Greg Lewis, Eagles
Bobby Engram, Seahawks
Nate Burleson, Seahawks
Roydell Williams, Titans
Rashied Davis, Bears
Brandon Lloyd, Redskins
James Jones, Packers
Jabar Gaffney, Patriots
Steve Smith, Giants
Aaron Moorehead, Colts
Billy McMullen, Vikings
Marcus Robinson, Lions
Ashley Lelie, 49ers
Peerless Price, Bills
Keary Colbert, Panthers
Devin Hester, Bears
David Givens, Titans
Brad Smith, Jets
Mike Williams, Raiders
Shaun McDonald, Lions
Malcom Floyd, Chargers
Kevin Walter, Texans
Courtney Roby, Titans
Justin Gage, Titans
Derek Hagan, Dolphins
Craig Davis, Chargers
Tim Carter, Browns
Roscoe Parrish, Bills
Johnnie Morant, Raiders
Doug Gabriel, Raiders
Justin McCareins, Jets
Ruvell Martin, Packers
Position overview
Wide receiver is an unsettling position this year. First of all, there’s no consensus No. 1 — you could make a decent case for any of the top half-dozen receivers on this list. And yet none of the top receivers is foolproof. Smith is physically fragile. Owens is mentally fragile. Colts teammates Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are studs who play in a terrific offense, but there are weeks when one takes a backseat to the other. Ditto for the Bengals’ Chad Johnson and his No. 7-ranked Cincy teammate, T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Even the normally reliable Torry Holt seems like an uncertain play this year. He was held without a TD in eight of his last 10 games in 2006, and he only had one 100-yard game over that span.
Fantasy owners looking to get the most bang for their buck at this position should grab at least two or three of the first 40 receivers to come off the board, and yet wait until about 10 receivers have come off the board before making a move. Why? Because Nos. 1 through 6 are likely to be overvalued; because Nos. 8 through about 17 are tightly bunched, so it makes sense to maximize value by grabbing whichever member of that group slips; and because Nos. 18 through about 35-40 are also pretty tightly bunched but could go in virtually any order, so it will be easy for fantasy owners to bob and weave as needed and still wind up with another receiver or two from that tier. There’s no sense zeroing in on any single receiver from the top 40. Your best bet is to operate by feel. Play the draft instead of letting the draft play you.
Once you get beyond the top 35 or 40, things get hit-or-miss in a hurry, with a grab bag of aging vets, unproven youngsters and talented teases (I’m looking at you, Matt Jones) occupying the next tier. It’s a sketchy group, but two of the guys I really like from this bunch are Brandon Jones and Patrick Crayton. Jones is easily the most talented of Tennessee’s mediocre receiving corps and has a chance to be a beneficiary of Vince Young’s magic touch. Crayton is just a Terry Glenn injury or a Terrell Owens … um, something, away from a starting job, and with his talent he may even be able to score 6-7 TDs if he stays a No. 3 receiver all year.
Likely to be overvalued: All of the top six on the board, R. Moss, Ward, D. Jackson, Furrey
Likely to be undervalued: Edwards, Jennings, B. Jones
Deep sleepers: Henry (tuck him away for late in the season), Webb, J. Jones
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Tight ends
Antonio Gates, Chargers
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
Jeremy Shockey, Giants
Vernon Davis, 49ers
Todd Heap, Ravens
Chris Cooley, Redskins
Alge Crumpler, Falcons
Kellen Winslow, Browns
L.J. Smith, Eagles
Ben Watson, Patriots
Jason Witten, Cowboys
Dallas Clark, Colts
Heath Miller, Steelers
Tony Scheffler, Broncos
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Daniel Graham, Broncos
Owen Daniels, Texans
Greg Olsen, Bears
Eric Johnson, Saints
Desmond Clark, Bears
Ben Utecht, Colts
Randy McMichael, Rams
Bo Scaife, Titans
Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
Alex Smith, Buccaneers
Ben Troupe, Titans
Leonard Pope, Cardinals
David Martin, Dolphins
Chris Baker, Jets
Jerramy Stevens, Buccaneers
George Wrighster, Jaguars
Donald Lee, Packers
Zach Miller, Raiders
Steve Heiden, Browns
Dan Campbell, Lions
John Madsen, Raiders
Daniel Wilcox, Ravens
Robert Royal, Bills
Bryan Fletcher, Colts
Reggie Kelly, Bengals
Bubba Franks, Packers
Jeff King, Panthers
David Thomas, Patriots
Matt Schobel, Eagles
Stephen Alexander, Broncos
Anthony Fasano, Cowboys
Ben Patrick, Cardinals
Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings
Jeb Putzier, Texans
Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins, Jaguars
Position overview
No sense getting impatient at tight end. Good things — or at least serviceable things — come to those who wait. Gates is still the cream of the crop, but no sense reaching for him too early — he’s not as lethal a weapon with Philip Rivers quarterbacking the Chargers as he was when Drew Brees was around.
Nos. 2 through 5 are pretty close. Young Vernon Davis probably won’t be one of the first five tight ends to come off the board in your league, so consider him to be a buying opportunity. This is the chance to get in on the ground floor of something special. Davis has the speed and savvy to be a future stud on a team that doesn’t have a lot of other good pass catchers. He came on strong at the end of last season and figures to build on that strong finish as long as he can stay healthy.
Crumpler and Clark are going to be overrated. Clark is always overrated, and Crumpler won’t be effective without QB Michael Vick, who used the big tight end as a crutch.
Kellen Winslow would be rated higher but is a major risk coming off microfracture surgery.
A couple of sleepers I like are Scheffler and Scaife. Scheffler was invisible in his rookie year until Jay Cutler became the Broncos’ quarterback. Cutler and Scheffler had developed good chemistry in the preseason, and it carried over to the latter part of the regular season. With Daniel Graham joining the Broncos in the offseason, fantasy owners will overlook Scheffler. Scaife figures to be in sync with former Texas teammate Vince Young, and the fact that the Titans have one of the league’s weakest WR collections will work to Scaife’s advantage.
Likely to be overvalued: Crumpler, Winslow, Clark
Likely to be undervalued: Davis, Scheffler, Utecht, Scaife
Deep sleepers: Madsen, D. Thomas
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Placekickers
Adam Vinatieri, Colts
Nate Kaeding, Chargers
Robbie Gould, Bears
Shayne Graham, Bengals
Jeff Wilkins, Rams
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
Neil Rackers, Cardinals
Jason Elam, Broncos
Josh Brown, Seahawks
Matt Stover, Ravens
Mike Nugent, Jets
Josh Scobey, Jaguars
Joe Nedney, 49ers
Olindo Mare, Saints
John Kasay, Panthers
David Akers, Eagles
Rian Lindell, Bills
Jeff Reed, Steelers
Cowboys kicker
Jason Hanson, Lions
Jay Feely, Dolphins
Ryan Longwell, Vikings
Rob Bironas, Titans
Matt Bryant, Buccaneers
Phil Dawson, Browns
Lawrence Tynes, Giants
Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Justin Medlock, Chiefs
Packers kicker
Falcons kicker
Shaun Suisham, Redskins
Kris Brown, Texans
Position overview
The advice is the same as ever: Don’t draft kickers too early. It’s just way too unpredictable a position to bother sinking a middle-round draft pick into a placekicker. Make sure you’re one of the last guys in the league to dip into the kicker pool.
Likely to be overvalued: Akers, Longwell
Likely to be undervalued: Gostkowski, Nugent, Nedney
Deep sleepers: Bironas, Medlock
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Defenses
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Miami Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants
Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams
Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans
Position overview
It’s hard to get into great detail here because defensive scoring varies so widely from league to league. The top six defenses should be pretty safe bets, and the next six are reasonably sound bets. Oakland and Minnesota have good defenses, but those defenses could be undermined by atrocious offenses that will keep their defensive teammates on the field for too long.
Take note of two NFC West defenses going in opposite directions: The Cardinals could be on the verge of becoming a very good defensive team, and the Seahawks slipped badly last season and may be even worse this season.
I like the Saints' defense this season simply because the Saints play in a division full of bad offenses.
Oh, and one last thing: Do not, under any circumstances, try to live off the past glory of the Buccaneers' defense.
Likely to be overvalued: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Likely to be undervalued: New Orleans, Green Bay
Deep sleeper: Houston
