Foster and Hillis (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

Mark, was it appropriate when you said that you were glad shining path - one of the best posters ever to grace this board who had died less than a year before - didn't have to see all the global warming stuff going on? You still never apologized for that, and you tried to defend your comments instead. The fact that you banned anyone when you didn't get in trouble or even apologize for talking like that about a dead poster in front of his friends is still the most sickening abuse of moderator status I've seen on this board. I still can't believe you work here.

 

[dickey moe]

Ouch

 

[B Maverick]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

 

[bengalbuck]

Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious?

If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they?

Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go.

If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player.

The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload.

I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl).

Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.

You really don't think the 6ppg difference between them last year is more the driving factor here?Arian Foster beat Peyton Hillis by more than Jamaal Charles beat Mike Tolbert. 6 ppg is a ton. Put another way, Foster scored 100 more points last season than Hillis did. I really think that is a much bigger factor in why they are projected so differently than race.

I don't think anyone was arguing that Hillis is a better draft pick or player than Foster. The OP's point was that people believe Foster is for real while Hillis is a fluke and why that may be. They both "came out of nowhere" last year, but people are willing to give Foster the benefit of the doubt but not Hillis (who actually had more of a track record of success). It's not really so much about Foster v. Hillis - but rather why people have their doubts about Hillis.

Real vs. not for real is such a superficial analysis. I don't think it applies. It seems like people are just projecting numbers for each guy and drafting accordingly. Admittedly, both seasons seem unusually strong so I think people are discounting them a bit. If Foster goes from 24 to 20 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?" If Hillis goes from 17.5 to 13.5 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?"It simply seems like everyone is assuming that both guys will score 4ppg less, so in essence their seasons were equally "fluky." So they are being treated equally. It's just that Foster scoring 4ppg less still leaves him as a top 3 RB while Hillis losing 4ppg makes him a mid-low level RB2, which is about where both guys are being drafted.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious?

If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they?

Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go.

If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player.

The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload.

I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl).

Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.

You really don't think the 6ppg difference between them last year is more the driving factor here?Arian Foster beat Peyton Hillis by more than Jamaal Charles beat Mike Tolbert. 6 ppg is a ton. Put another way, Foster scored 100 more points last season than Hillis did. I really think that is a much bigger factor in why they are projected so differently than race.

I don't think anyone was arguing that Hillis is a better draft pick or player than Foster. The OP's point was that people believe Foster is for real while Hillis is a fluke and why that may be. They both "came out of nowhere" last year, but people are willing to give Foster the benefit of the doubt but not Hillis (who actually had more of a track record of success). It's not really so much about Foster v. Hillis - but rather why people have their doubts about Hillis.

Real vs. not for real is such a superficial analysis. I don't think it applies. It seems like people are just projecting numbers for each guy and drafting accordingly. Admittedly, both seasons seem unusually strong so I think people are discounting them a bit. If Foster goes from 24 to 20 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?" If Hillis goes from 17.5 to 13.5 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?"It simply seems like everyone is assuming that both guys will score 4ppg less, so in essence their seasons were equally "fluky." So they are being treated equally. It's just that Foster scoring 4ppg less still leaves him as a top 3 RB while Hillis losing 4ppg makes him a mid-low level RB2, which is about where both guys are being drafted.

wtf?....so basically you are saying foster and hillis will score 4 ppg less but everybody else will stay the same...?....why do you think foster will score less and why do you think hillis will score less.....that is what we are trying to discuss.....you indicate both of their years were fluky....why were they fluky....what do you see that will be different for them compared to others...?

 

[bigunreal]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

Thanks for proving my point so conclusively, and all in one post! FYI, Peyton Hillis is faster than Arian Foster. But then again, he was also faster than Slowshon Moreno, who was immediately promoted over him for no logical reason. Shocker, eh? So, how does a slower RB qualify as a "playmaker" who "threatens to go the distance any time," while the faster RB is "nothing spectacular?" The game is given away when you make the inevitable comparison to Alstott. How about comparing him to someone truly comparable- like Steven Jackson? No, that one never comes up, kind of like how even 6'6 white WRs are compared to Wes Welker.

I love Foster as a player, and my point was not to compare him exclusively with Hillis, but to compare every other RB in the NFL to Hillis. And, I have yet to see an example provided where a RB had a comparable season to Hillis's last year, at a young age, and his team (not to mention all journalists) set out to reduce his workload the following season. Remember, Hillis wasn't a 350 carry back, not even a 300 carry back, so his workload was not unusually large. Again, please show me some other examples.

 

[T J]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

How is this a racist comment? This type of discussion regarding Hillis has been brought up several times on this board...

I don't think there's any question that Hillis would be viewed in a different light if he were black. It's not racism to acknowledge the fact that a highly productive white running back is the exception, not the rule.

 

[B Maverick]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

Thanks for proving my point so conclusively, and all in one post! FYI, Peyton Hillis is faster than Arian Foster. But then again, he was also faster than Slowshon Moreno, who was immediately promoted over him for no logical reason. Shocker, eh? So, how does a slower RB qualify as a "playmaker" who "threatens to go the distance any time," while the faster RB is "nothing spectacular?" The game is given away when you make the inevitable comparison to Alstott. How about comparing him to someone truly comparable- like Steven Jackson? No, that one never comes up, kind of like how even 6'6 white WRs are compared to Wes Welker.

I love Foster as a player, and my point was not to compare him exclusively with Hillis, but to compare every other RB in the NFL to Hillis. And, I have yet to see an example provided where a RB had a comparable season to Hillis's last year, at a young age, and his team (not to mention all journalists) set out to reduce his workload the following season. Remember, Hillis wasn't a 350 carry back, not even a 300 carry back, so his workload was not unusually large. Again, please show me some other examples.

Glad I could help!

I admit, I never saw Hillis as fast. And I have to wonder why Denver and now Cle would be discarding him so easily if he was special. Yes Cleveland hasnt dismissed him but he did wear down and the staff has said they want Hardesty to be more involved.

And believe me when I say the Alstott comparison ISNT due to skin color but more to size and thundering style. I would compare Hillis to JLewis and Turner but again, the eyeball test TO ME never showed me that Hillis had speed.

Maybe that is the main issue for FFers? Hillis doesnt come across as fast and Foster does. Maybe its the higher powered offense for Foster? I dont know, but for whatever reason Hillis isnt seen as a game changer where Foster is.

 

[Touchdown There]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

Thanks for proving my point so conclusively, and all in one post! FYI, Peyton Hillis is faster than Arian Foster. But then again, he was also faster than Slowshon Moreno, who was immediately promoted over him for no logical reason. Shocker, eh? So, how does a slower RB qualify as a "playmaker" who "threatens to go the distance any time," while the faster RB is "nothing spectacular?" The game is given away when you make the inevitable comparison to Alstott. How about comparing him to someone truly comparable- like Steven Jackson? No, that one never comes up, kind of like how even 6'6 white WRs are compared to Wes Welker.

I love Foster as a player, and my point was not to compare him exclusively with Hillis, but to compare every other RB in the NFL to Hillis. And, I have yet to see an example provided where a RB had a comparable season to Hillis's last year, at a young age, and his team (not to mention all journalists) set out to reduce his workload the following season. Remember, Hillis wasn't a 350 carry back, not even a 300 carry back, so his workload was not unusually large. Again, please show me some other examples.

To get a better picture of Hillis' wear and tear I pulled up his rushes from Arkansas. There was a good chart at Wikipedia that summarizes his college years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peyton_Hillis#Career_statisticsHillis was not a 300 carry back last year. His reps were limited to "injury-fill" time with the Broncos. At Arkansas he was getting around 60 carries a year. He has had no surgeries or procedures. His only injury seems to be this hyper-extension of his right leg: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d80d1e33b/WK-14-Peyton-Hillis-injury

Hillis has hands of gold and is going to truck some people this year.

 

[Clifford]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

It's an established joke on this board, lampooning the movie/book a time to kill. If you want to call me a racist please send me a pm and explain which race I am being racist to.Eta: careful guys. Apparently mentioning race is a bannable offense now.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

Thanks for proving my point so conclusively, and all in one post! FYI, Peyton Hillis is faster than Arian Foster. But then again, he was also faster than Slowshon Moreno, who was immediately promoted over him for no logical reason. Shocker, eh? So, how does a slower RB qualify as a "playmaker" who "threatens to go the distance any time," while the faster RB is "nothing spectacular?" The game is given away when you make the inevitable comparison to Alstott. How about comparing him to someone truly comparable- like Steven Jackson? No, that one never comes up, kind of like how even 6'6 white WRs are compared to Wes Welker.

I love Foster as a player, and my point was not to compare him exclusively with Hillis, but to compare every other RB in the NFL to Hillis. And, I have yet to see an example provided where a RB had a comparable season to Hillis's last year, at a young age, and his team (not to mention all journalists) set out to reduce his workload the following season. Remember, Hillis wasn't a 350 carry back, not even a 300 carry back, so his workload was not unusually large. Again, please show me some other examples.

Glad I could help!

I admit, I never saw Hillis as fast. And I have to wonder why Denver and now Cle would be discarding him so easily if he was special. Yes Cleveland hasnt dismissed him but he did wear down and the staff has said they want Hardesty to be more involved.

And believe me when I say the Alstott comparison ISNT due to skin color but more to size and thundering style. I would compare Hillis to JLewis and Turner but again, the eyeball test TO ME never showed me that Hillis had speed.

Maybe that is the main issue for FFers? Hillis doesnt come across as fast and Foster does. Maybe its the higher powered offense for Foster? I dont know, but for whatever reason Hillis isnt seen as a game changer where Foster is.

The whole knock against Foster was that he was "too slow" to be a feature back in the NFL.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

My .02

The NFL and ESP ff owners are always looking for the "playmaker" the guy that threatens to go the distance at any time: cj Peterson djackson Vick etc. Foster fits this category

What you have in cle is a guy that is solid moves the chains gets his yards etc. A mike Alstott type. Good NFL guy but nothing spectacular and flashy. Nothing that most ff guys look for since NFL teams want the superstar. Case in point was hillis having a monster few games in Denver to be relegated behind Moreno and then shipped off to cle for brady Quinn

Hardesty presumedly has the skills to be this take it to the house guy that hillis doesnt seem to have. The coaches want hardesty to be involved in cle where Tate hasn't really been heard about.

At this point foster has the upside ffers love where Hillis seems to give you solid but unspectacular and may be replaced at any time by the next foster....

Thanks for proving my point so conclusively, and all in one post! FYI, Peyton Hillis is faster than Arian Foster. But then again, he was also faster than Slowshon Moreno, who was immediately promoted over him for no logical reason. Shocker, eh? So, how does a slower RB qualify as a "playmaker" who "threatens to go the distance any time," while the faster RB is "nothing spectacular?" The game is given away when you make the inevitable comparison to Alstott. How about comparing him to someone truly comparable- like Steven Jackson? No, that one never comes up, kind of like how even 6'6 white WRs are compared to Wes Welker.

I love Foster as a player, and my point was not to compare him exclusively with Hillis, but to compare every other RB in the NFL to Hillis. And, I have yet to see an example provided where a RB had a comparable season to Hillis's last year, at a young age, and his team (not to mention all journalists) set out to reduce his workload the following season. Remember, Hillis wasn't a 350 carry back, not even a 300 carry back, so his workload was not unusually large. Again, please show me some other examples.

Dunno about this demonstrative X is faster than Y statement. What is that based on? Peyton ran high 4.5s at both the combine and his pro day. While that's fast FOR HIS SIZE, it's not fast for an NFL running back at all. Foster may have timed poorly in the 40, but he is much quicker than he is fast. Big plays are about a lot more than just straight line speed. Quickness, elusiveness, vision etc all play a huge role. Foster has more of some of those traits than Hillis does, and not surprisingly made a lot more "big plays" last year than Hillis did.There have been a LOT of guys, of all different shades, that have displayed amazing size/speed ratios but wouldn't be considered big play backs. I think it might be fair to put Hillis in that category. Very effective back overall, but not a guy that's going to be a huge breakaway threat every time he touches the ball.

 

[Touchdown There]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

It's an established joke on this board, lampooning the movie/book a time to kill. If you want to call me a racist please send me a pm and explain which race I am being racist to.Eta: careful guys. Apparently mentioning race is a bannable offense now.

I am guessing this means you did not get an apology when you were un-banned.

 

[Clifford]

No harm done but I don't see how what I said was racist, or to whom.

 

[pghrob]

The topic of race relations has itself become too polarizing based on peoples' obsession with not wanting to be misconstrued as poitically incorrect. It is almost reaching taboo status to just hold a frank debate about it.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

No harm done but I don't see how what I said was racist, or to whom.

the fact that you were basically accused by staff of being racist in front of the entire FBG community for no reason deserves an apology in front of the entire FBG community.....anything less just magnifies the knee jerk overreaction....some people need to check their power trips at the door and apologize when a mistake has been made....and the whole "it is something he takes very seriously, now let's get back to talking football" is sweeping it under the rug and a cop out....part of "taking racism very seriously" should also include not throwing out underserved accusations around the subject....I guess being excellent has some gray areas depending on who you are, what you say, and what you are talking about....lack of an apology by Mark here is very weak...but I mean that in an excellent way....

 

[bostonfred]

No harm done but I don't see how what I said was racist, or to whom.

the fact that you were basically accused by staff of being racist in front of the entire FBG community for no reason deserves an apology in front of the entire FBG community.....anything less just magnifies the knee jerk overreaction....some people need to check their power trips at the door and apologize when a mistake has been made....and the whole "it is something he takes very seriously, now let's get back to talking football" is sweeping it under the rug and a cop out....part of "taking racism very seriously" should also include not throwing out underserved accusations around the subject....I guess being excellent has some gray areas depending on who you are, what you say, and what you are talking about....lack of an apology by Mark here is very weak...but I mean that in an excellent way....

Mark doesn't have a good history of apologizing when he says horrible things about people in front of the FBG community. This is not the first time. After he took a potshot at my dead friend, who was a long time member of this community, Mark not only chose not to apologize, but specifically posted that he refused to apologize, even when other posters spoke up that he might be in the wrong. I don't have a lot of time for people who do awful things and are unapologetic.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

On my site I have Foster listed as #1 because he was far and away the best RB last season. If you had to tier the RBs at the end of last year, Foster was on his own tier. In standard scoring Foster put up roughly 20.3 fantasy points per game. Adrian Peterson put up 15.9 fantasy per game. In my mind, the fact that Foster outscored AP each game by almost a full TD-margin can't be ignored. AP has history on his side, which can't be ignored either, but the NFL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, and Foster is the man of the hour.

I love Hillis too, but he scares me. I'm honestly not used to seeing a guy of his make-up putting up big fantasy numbers on a consistent basis. I picked him up last year on waivers, but every week I was waiting for the 'other foot to drop'. I figured he would eventually crash down to Earth or get injured because of his rugged running-style, but it never happened. I too think he is under-valued this season, so I won't feel bad grabbing him for the right price.

 

[bengalbuck]

Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious?

If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they?

Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go.

If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player.

The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload.

I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl).

Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.

You really don't think the 6ppg difference between them last year is more the driving factor here?Arian Foster beat Peyton Hillis by more than Jamaal Charles beat Mike Tolbert. 6 ppg is a ton. Put another way, Foster scored 100 more points last season than Hillis did. I really think that is a much bigger factor in why they are projected so differently than race.

I don't think anyone was arguing that Hillis is a better draft pick or player than Foster. The OP's point was that people believe Foster is for real while Hillis is a fluke and why that may be. They both "came out of nowhere" last year, but people are willing to give Foster the benefit of the doubt but not Hillis (who actually had more of a track record of success). It's not really so much about Foster v. Hillis - but rather why people have their doubts about Hillis.

Real vs. not for real is such a superficial analysis. I don't think it applies. It seems like people are just projecting numbers for each guy and drafting accordingly. Admittedly, both seasons seem unusually strong so I think people are discounting them a bit. If Foster goes from 24 to 20 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?" If Hillis goes from 17.5 to 13.5 ppg, does that mean he wasn't "for real?"It simply seems like everyone is assuming that both guys will score 4ppg less, so in essence their seasons were equally "fluky." So they are being treated equally. It's just that Foster scoring 4ppg less still leaves him as a top 3 RB while Hillis losing 4ppg makes him a mid-low level RB2, which is about where both guys are being drafted.

wtf?....so basically you are saying foster and hillis will score 4 ppg less but everybody else will stay the same...?....why do you think foster will score less and why do you think hillis will score less.....that is what we are trying to discuss.....you indicate both of their years were fluky....why were they fluky....what do you see that will be different for them compared to others...?

I'll assume that you're not trolling or simple and explain what should be common sense....When setting your draft list you make projections for every single player and decide whether you think they'll score more points, less points, stay the same, etc.

Just using common sense and using ADP as a judge, it appears that most people are projecting that Foster will come back to earth a little bit. If not, he would be the no brainer #1 and would be the #1 pick in every single draft. However, the reality is that while he's still a consensus top 5 pick, he's not the undisputed #1 and people seem to think he'll score in the same general range as the other top backs. Looking at it from a different perspective, it is always tough to count on a back to score 20 TDs, so its not at all crazy to think that number will probably be a bit lower. In addition, recent history has shown that most back who have a historic year (CJ in 2009) aren't going to repeat those exact numbers the next year.....

Same with Hillis. If people thought he'd repeat last year's numbers, he'd be a top 10 pick. But it seems he isn't projected to completely fall off, just to be more like RB15-18 instead of RB7...

My whole point was that you have to acknowledge in this discussion that your starting point for making 2011 projections for these 2 players is over 6 points apart. When you take that into account, both seem to be being treated almost exactly the same (ADP suggests people suggest small regressions for each).

 

[Stinkin Ref]

thats cool....I get what you are saying....it seems like we are saying that those were the only two that had unusually freaky years last years....but we don't really know if it was freaky or a sign of things to come since neither of them had history before that (if anything Hillis has actually shown in the past that he can produce at a high level, ie games in Den)....so if we have no real history to say whether either was "freaky" why do 12-15 guys all of a sudden project to jump in front of Hillis....last year there were only two backs ahead of Hillis (he finished around 3rd in most every scoring system)....easy to understand we think Hillis production might regress, but why to the point of 12-15 guys outscoring him....with CLE schedule I hope he keps falling....

 

[De Novo]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

You're lying to yourself if you don't think people's perceptions would be different if Hillis were a different race. LeGarrette Blount is higher on many people's lists than Hillis. They are both big steamrollers who seek contact, but Hillis outproduced him, has a better o-line, and actually catches balls. I will stick my neck out and say that if Hillis were in fact black, he would be a near-consensus top 10 pick.The 3rd thread I open after a 2 year hiatus reminds me why I left. Look up the definition of racism, because this gentleman's comment wasn't racist.

 

[CalBear]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back.

 

[Touchdown There]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back...

...fresh off his ACL tear.

 

[CalBear]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back...

...fresh off his ACL tear.

Yes, so? By the time the season starts the injury will be more than a year in the past. There's no reason to expect that Hardesty will be any less of a runner than he was when they drafted him. There are numerous recent examples of RBs who came back strong from ACL injuries.

 

[Touchdown There]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back...

...fresh off his ACL tear.

Yes, so? By the time the season starts the injury will be more than a year in the past. There's no reason to expect that Hardesty will be any less of a runner than he was when they drafted him. There are numerous recent examples of RBs who came back strong from ACL injuries...

...and numerous other examples where guys are never the same again.

 

[ThePittbully]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back...

...fresh off his ACL tear.

Yes, so? By the time the season starts the injury will be more than a year in the past. There's no reason to expect that Hardesty will be any less of a runner than he was when they drafted him. There are numerous recent examples of RBs who came back strong from ACL injuries...

...and numerous other examples where guys are never the same again.

I think it should be taken into account that Hardesty has had a hard time staying healthy through most of his football career, and this is his second ACL tear he's coming off of.

Also I'm curious how many people in this thread watched Hillis play last year, and I mean really watched him. The last big man I saw move like that was Jerome Bettis. He's not only a bruising physical back but he's got decent speed and incredible agility. How many 240lb guys do you see leapfrogging defenders at full speed? Add to this that his hands are apparently made of glue and I don't really see where the downside is

 

[CalBear]

There are other backs who performed like Hillis who didn't seem to have the fantasy community behind them the following year. Some recent examples would be Willis McGahee, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Matt Forte, and even Joseph Addai. Now, none of those fell quite so far as Hillis, and that might be at least partially related to latent images people have of white running backs, but it is also at least partially related to the fact that he wasn't expected to be the starter last year, and the guy who was injured is coming back...

...fresh off his ACL tear.

Yes, so? By the time the season starts the injury will be more than a year in the past. There's no reason to expect that Hardesty will be any less of a runner than he was when they drafted him. There are numerous recent examples of RBs who came back strong from ACL injuries...

...and numerous other examples where guys are never the same again.

There are numerous examples of backs who didn't have ACL injuries who were "never the same again." Whatever happened to Steve Slaton and Anthony Thomas?

 

[kinglochness]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.

Actually, from my limited research, Ahmad Bradshaw led the league in fumbles lost with 6. Hillis had 5, still not a great number, but still not leading the league.As for the inflated 8 number you gave, 3 of those came in the MISERABLE Buffalo game in week 14. I am sure not many people saw it with those 2 stellar teams, but it was basically a blizzard on the field, so that is somewhat understandable. There were a total of 7 fumbles in that game.

Umm...did either of these guys change divisions this year? Does Hillis still play in a division with 2 cold weather teams. Does Foster still play in a division with 2 warm weather teams and a dome team? Should we not take that into account considering when most fantasy playoffs are held (weeks 14-16)?

 

[kinglochness]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.

Actually, from my limited research, Ahmad Bradshaw led the league in fumbles lost with 6. Hillis had 5, still not a great number, but still not leading the league.As for the inflated 8 number you gave, 3 of those came in the MISERABLE Buffalo game in week 14. I am sure not many people saw it with those 2 stellar teams, but it was basically a blizzard on the field, so that is somewhat understandable. There were a total of 7 fumbles in that game.

Umm...did either of these guys change divisions this year? Does Hillis still play in a division with 2 cold weather teams. Does Foster still play in a division with 2 warm weather teams and a dome team? Should we not take that into account considering when most fantasy playoffs are held (weeks 14-16)?

 

[kinglochness]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.

Actually, from my limited research, Ahmad Bradshaw led the league in fumbles lost with 6. Hillis had 5, still not a great number, but still not leading the league.As for the inflated 8 number you gave, 3 of those came in the MISERABLE Buffalo game in week 14. I am sure not many people saw it with those 2 stellar teams, but it was basically a blizzard on the field, so that is somewhat understandable. There were a total of 7 fumbles in that game.

Umm...did either of these guys change divisions this year? Does Hillis still play in a division with 2 cold weather teams. Does Foster still play in a division with 2 warm weather teams and a dome team? Should we not take that into account considering when most fantasy playoffs are held (weeks 14-16)?

 

[kinglochness]

Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.

How is this a racist comment? This type of discussion regarding Hillis has been brought up several times on this board...

I don't think there's any question that Hillis would be viewed in a different light if he were black. It's not racism to acknowledge the fact that a highly productive white running back is the exception, not the rule.

It is very interesting how they are described. Hillis is a workhorse back that brings his lunchbox to work everyday and busts his tail to outwork everyone else while arian foster is just a pure natural football player with all the god given talents and skills to be a feature back. Translation: Hillis has presumeably produced despite a huge lack of talent because he's white and foster's talent was somehow missed by all the scouts due to his laziness because he's black. To act like that's not a general stereotype in sports is ridiculous.

 

[Hobbes]

This thread is bringing up a lot of bad memories. I had Foster and Hardesty in an RBBC in our college fantasy league a few years ago...just brutal as the coaches never made up their mind.