VaTerp
Footballguy
Tweaking rankings headed into a redraft tonight and find myself going back and forth on several RBs in roughly the RB35-50 range. The spot where all of the clear starters and a handful of premium backups have gone, We all know finding a startable flex or even dark horse RB 2 in this range can be FF gold.
Seems to be there are 5 team RB situations with the most variance in terms of FF value. A lot of this has been discussed on individual player threads but thought there was some benefit in starting a discussion on where folks see the situations below and where you think the best value may be.
DAL
I have Javonte Williams ranked ahead of this range and its clear he will get the most work early in the season. But he hasn't looked good since early in 2022. Miles Sanders has been hot garbage since 2022, where at least he did put up a full season of useful production. Does anyone really believe either of these 2 will sustain the lead role 2.5 years since they were last effective/relevant? Jaydon Blue is an interesting prospect in PPR. But he's followed up a college career full of question marks in terms of how much volume he can handle and has begun his pro career with nagging injuries and more questions. Williams has decent value for where his ADP sits if he can sustain the lead role and has shown enough prowess as a receiver that he could certainly be in the flex convo all year. But in 2025 are we really trusting Javonte freakin Williams? This offense is going to move the ball as long as Dak stays healthy and there is value in pass catching RBs on a team that figures to again be amongst the league leaders in pass attempts. But there are just so many questions here.
WAS
As a homer, I really like the RB situation from a real life perspective. They have a versatile backfield with 4 different guys who offer complimentary skill sets. From a FF perspective it hard to bank on where the consistent reliable production will be. Bill Croskey Merritt has become a favorite "sleeper" pick but I can easily see Ekeler outproducing him in PPR. Bill's pass protection is a work in progress and the priority is protecting the franchise in JD5. Chris Rodriguez is a potential TD vulture and McNichols also figures to get some touches some weeks. Ekeler's history with concussions, leg, and other injuries suggest he will likely miss time during the season. Those weeks JCM may get a boost into flex appeal. But factor in JD5 also getting rushing TDs and a guy like Deebo who they will utilize as an extension of the run game and I'm a lot lower on the FF appeal of this backfield than the real life one.
JAX
This one is super interesting to me. I'm still not sure what happened to Etienne last year when he went from being a potential top 10 RB to completely out of favor of the previous coaching staff. Maybe it's as simple as his ypc and efficiency falling way off from 2023. In PPR, he and Bigsby finished with almost the exact same PPG last season. Bigsby looked pretty good between the tackles and scored 9 TDs but offered virtually nothing in the passing game. Enter a new coaching staff and what should be a significant upgrade to the weekly offensive gameplans. But now you also have a rookie in Tuten competing for touches and likely offering the most explosiveness and big play potential. Kind of feels like you now the limits of Etienne and Bigsby while Tuten is the new shiny toy. The path to touches is murky at best. Tuten's college role suggest he would be more of a threat to Bigsby's touches with Etienne having the primary 3rd down/receiving role. Very unclear and maybe similar to WAS where there isnt enough consistency for weekly flex appeal.
CLE
I think Jerome Ford has early season value and will start the season getting a near feature role with Dylan Sampson worked in sparingly. Ford's upside is limited but I do think the coaches trust him and he's a dependable veteran capable of stringing along a few good games of FF value. We all know though he is not a season long answer in FF or the NFL. Judkins obviously has the talent but we are 4 days away from opening Sunday and he is still not under contract and has limited to no participation with the team for the majority of the pre-season. I like Ford early and Judkins and less so Sampson are worth stashing for later in the season. The uniqueness of the Judkins contract situation alone makes the variance of outcomes here very vast.
HOU
Talk about questions....what a cluster.... in this RB room. Joe Mixon has an unspecified foot/ankle injury that is keeping him out for at least 4 weeks with a lack of clarity on if he will even play this season. Nick Chubb has been an elite RB but his knees are on their 9th life as he turns 30 this year. Dameon Pierce has shown some flashes but has not had consistent touches since his rookie year. Woody Marks is a rookie RB who I'm personally not impress at all by. Does the ghost of Nick Chubb have some value here. Is Mixon worth a late round flyer? I think the answer to both is yes but I have zero confidence in either.
After all that, looks like you can group these players into some categories for FF production.
Veterans who have demonstrated FF value in the past but due to age, injury, or ineffectiveness have limited ceilings.
Javonte
Ekeler
Etienne
Chubb
Mixon?
Rookies with appeal but limited by holes in their games, competition for touches, or crazy contract situations
JCM
Blue
Judkins
Tuten
Marks
Replacement level players who have demonstrated some FF value for a stretch of games but no long term appeal
Ford
Bigsby
Dameon Pierce
Miles Sanders
Sanders and Marks are not on my board at all. But that leaves about 10 guys who could have some value as I believe at least 4 of these 5 offenses will move the ball. Anything I'm missing here? Am I mischaracterizing Bigsby? Anyone feel strongly about the value of any of the above?
Seems to be there are 5 team RB situations with the most variance in terms of FF value. A lot of this has been discussed on individual player threads but thought there was some benefit in starting a discussion on where folks see the situations below and where you think the best value may be.
DAL
I have Javonte Williams ranked ahead of this range and its clear he will get the most work early in the season. But he hasn't looked good since early in 2022. Miles Sanders has been hot garbage since 2022, where at least he did put up a full season of useful production. Does anyone really believe either of these 2 will sustain the lead role 2.5 years since they were last effective/relevant? Jaydon Blue is an interesting prospect in PPR. But he's followed up a college career full of question marks in terms of how much volume he can handle and has begun his pro career with nagging injuries and more questions. Williams has decent value for where his ADP sits if he can sustain the lead role and has shown enough prowess as a receiver that he could certainly be in the flex convo all year. But in 2025 are we really trusting Javonte freakin Williams? This offense is going to move the ball as long as Dak stays healthy and there is value in pass catching RBs on a team that figures to again be amongst the league leaders in pass attempts. But there are just so many questions here.
WAS
As a homer, I really like the RB situation from a real life perspective. They have a versatile backfield with 4 different guys who offer complimentary skill sets. From a FF perspective it hard to bank on where the consistent reliable production will be. Bill Croskey Merritt has become a favorite "sleeper" pick but I can easily see Ekeler outproducing him in PPR. Bill's pass protection is a work in progress and the priority is protecting the franchise in JD5. Chris Rodriguez is a potential TD vulture and McNichols also figures to get some touches some weeks. Ekeler's history with concussions, leg, and other injuries suggest he will likely miss time during the season. Those weeks JCM may get a boost into flex appeal. But factor in JD5 also getting rushing TDs and a guy like Deebo who they will utilize as an extension of the run game and I'm a lot lower on the FF appeal of this backfield than the real life one.
JAX
This one is super interesting to me. I'm still not sure what happened to Etienne last year when he went from being a potential top 10 RB to completely out of favor of the previous coaching staff. Maybe it's as simple as his ypc and efficiency falling way off from 2023. In PPR, he and Bigsby finished with almost the exact same PPG last season. Bigsby looked pretty good between the tackles and scored 9 TDs but offered virtually nothing in the passing game. Enter a new coaching staff and what should be a significant upgrade to the weekly offensive gameplans. But now you also have a rookie in Tuten competing for touches and likely offering the most explosiveness and big play potential. Kind of feels like you now the limits of Etienne and Bigsby while Tuten is the new shiny toy. The path to touches is murky at best. Tuten's college role suggest he would be more of a threat to Bigsby's touches with Etienne having the primary 3rd down/receiving role. Very unclear and maybe similar to WAS where there isnt enough consistency for weekly flex appeal.
CLE
I think Jerome Ford has early season value and will start the season getting a near feature role with Dylan Sampson worked in sparingly. Ford's upside is limited but I do think the coaches trust him and he's a dependable veteran capable of stringing along a few good games of FF value. We all know though he is not a season long answer in FF or the NFL. Judkins obviously has the talent but we are 4 days away from opening Sunday and he is still not under contract and has limited to no participation with the team for the majority of the pre-season. I like Ford early and Judkins and less so Sampson are worth stashing for later in the season. The uniqueness of the Judkins contract situation alone makes the variance of outcomes here very vast.
HOU
Talk about questions....what a cluster.... in this RB room. Joe Mixon has an unspecified foot/ankle injury that is keeping him out for at least 4 weeks with a lack of clarity on if he will even play this season. Nick Chubb has been an elite RB but his knees are on their 9th life as he turns 30 this year. Dameon Pierce has shown some flashes but has not had consistent touches since his rookie year. Woody Marks is a rookie RB who I'm personally not impress at all by. Does the ghost of Nick Chubb have some value here. Is Mixon worth a late round flyer? I think the answer to both is yes but I have zero confidence in either.
After all that, looks like you can group these players into some categories for FF production.
Veterans who have demonstrated FF value in the past but due to age, injury, or ineffectiveness have limited ceilings.
Javonte
Ekeler
Etienne
Chubb
Mixon?
Rookies with appeal but limited by holes in their games, competition for touches, or crazy contract situations
JCM
Blue
Judkins
Tuten
Marks
Replacement level players who have demonstrated some FF value for a stretch of games but no long term appeal
Ford
Bigsby
Dameon Pierce
Miles Sanders
Sanders and Marks are not on my board at all. But that leaves about 10 guys who could have some value as I believe at least 4 of these 5 offenses will move the ball. Anything I'm missing here? Am I mischaracterizing Bigsby? Anyone feel strongly about the value of any of the above?
