As the Foster hype train took off I decided to do a simple analysis of Foster versus Moreno versus Mathews in ppr. I consider TD's/Goal line, Rushing yardage and Receiving. Withing those three categories I consider Talent, and Situation/Opportunity.
TD/Goal line – Foster
Foster bulked up this year to 229 and looks every bit of it (without losing quickness). If there was any question about who the goal line back is, he answered that yesterday and looked very good doing it. He is also in the best offense with arguably the best OL of the three teams. Moreno has decent power but I’d say a notch lower. He is also the obvious GL back in Denver. Mathews looks very good as well and could be the best of the three, but then there is this Tolbert thing and his offence is behind Fosters (better than Moreno) and his OL is the worst of the three (Assuming Clady is ok). If Mathews was the guaranteed GL back without Tolbert interference, he would be number 2.
Rushing – (Foster and Mathews)
Mathews is the best talent, but Foster has the much better situation (OL and WR situation). All three will get around 250 carries. Mathews talent is clearly better than Moreno and Foster, and his situation is better than Moreno’s (although his OL/Jax is still a concern, so I don’t think it’s a ton better than Moreno’s, but nevertheless better). His team’s offence versus Foster’s is a lot to overcome. I think Moreno has better vision and agility/quickness than Foster and that more than offsets Fosters power. Foster’s situation is just so much better. Mathews is just better (situation and talent)
If forced to rank, I would go Foster, Mathews, then Moreno, but IMO it is too close to call between Foster and Mathews.
Receiving – Moreno
One of the things that made Moreno a 1st round pick was his all around (if unspectacular) ability. He is a good receiver and his coach seems to want him to be a three down back. I think he is capable of at least 50 catches. Foster just had 4 catches yesterday and looks like he has ability and situation to catch 40 balls this year, although Slaton could impact that. I think Mathews similarly could catch 40 balls, although Sproles could impact that. I give Foster the very slight edge due to the offense he is in.
Overall
Based on the analysis above Foster would be my GL favorite and swaps a rushing versus reciving advantage with Moreno. His GL advantage and overall situation will set him apart from the other two. Mathews is behind Moreno in GL and receiving, but better in rushing. Moreno is number 2 in GL, although it’s a very small advantage/if any, and number 1 in receiving. His rushing yardage shouldn’t be too far from, Mathews or Foster. If Mathews does lose the GL job to Tolbert, Moreno would pass Mathews in my rankings if healthy. The hamstring keeps him in the bottom of my rankings (for these three this season) either way.
In the most recent rankings I have seen, Mathews has been in the 10-15 range, Moreno the 15-19 range and Foster 25-32 range. When is was assumed that Moreno was healthy (pre-injury), Moreno was ranked 11-15.
So IMO, this analysis suggests that maybe Foster should be in the 10-15 range with Mathews.
Thoughts?
< No insults please, it only takes away from what could be an interesting debate.>
TD/Goal line – Foster
Foster bulked up this year to 229 and looks every bit of it (without losing quickness). If there was any question about who the goal line back is, he answered that yesterday and looked very good doing it. He is also in the best offense with arguably the best OL of the three teams. Moreno has decent power but I’d say a notch lower. He is also the obvious GL back in Denver. Mathews looks very good as well and could be the best of the three, but then there is this Tolbert thing and his offence is behind Fosters (better than Moreno) and his OL is the worst of the three (Assuming Clady is ok). If Mathews was the guaranteed GL back without Tolbert interference, he would be number 2.
Rushing – (Foster and Mathews)
Mathews is the best talent, but Foster has the much better situation (OL and WR situation). All three will get around 250 carries. Mathews talent is clearly better than Moreno and Foster, and his situation is better than Moreno’s (although his OL/Jax is still a concern, so I don’t think it’s a ton better than Moreno’s, but nevertheless better). His team’s offence versus Foster’s is a lot to overcome. I think Moreno has better vision and agility/quickness than Foster and that more than offsets Fosters power. Foster’s situation is just so much better. Mathews is just better (situation and talent)
If forced to rank, I would go Foster, Mathews, then Moreno, but IMO it is too close to call between Foster and Mathews.
Receiving – Moreno
One of the things that made Moreno a 1st round pick was his all around (if unspectacular) ability. He is a good receiver and his coach seems to want him to be a three down back. I think he is capable of at least 50 catches. Foster just had 4 catches yesterday and looks like he has ability and situation to catch 40 balls this year, although Slaton could impact that. I think Mathews similarly could catch 40 balls, although Sproles could impact that. I give Foster the very slight edge due to the offense he is in.
Overall
Based on the analysis above Foster would be my GL favorite and swaps a rushing versus reciving advantage with Moreno. His GL advantage and overall situation will set him apart from the other two. Mathews is behind Moreno in GL and receiving, but better in rushing. Moreno is number 2 in GL, although it’s a very small advantage/if any, and number 1 in receiving. His rushing yardage shouldn’t be too far from, Mathews or Foster. If Mathews does lose the GL job to Tolbert, Moreno would pass Mathews in my rankings if healthy. The hamstring keeps him in the bottom of my rankings (for these three this season) either way.
In the most recent rankings I have seen, Mathews has been in the 10-15 range, Moreno the 15-19 range and Foster 25-32 range. When is was assumed that Moreno was healthy (pre-injury), Moreno was ranked 11-15.
So IMO, this analysis suggests that maybe Foster should be in the 10-15 range with Mathews.
Thoughts?
< No insults please, it only takes away from what could be an interesting debate.>
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i personally dont like foster from what ive seen last year. :X kubiak has him on a short leash. ill also plan on getting jeremiah johnson much later and see if he can emerge as the starter.
I would certainly use ADP as a part of my draft strategy. I was simply ranking based on what I think they will do.
i personally dont like foster from what ive seen last year. 
kubiak has him on a short leash. ill also plan on getting jeremiah johnson much later and see if he can emerge as the starter.
I would certainly use ADP as a part of my draft strategy. I was simply ranking based on what I think they will do.
