***FRIAR WIRE*** (1 Viewer)

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

I'll sleep easy tonight know that it took one of the worst blown calls in Major League history to end the Friars season. Despite the season ending injuries to Bradley and Cameron, my boys fought hard.

They did fight hard down the stretch and you should be proud, and a scrappy team of destiny got over taken by a scrappier team of destiny. Put that game in Petco, and you get the W.But don't come out with this petty stuff about the touching the plate. Your catcher should have put up a fight if it was so egregious, and secondly, the way Hoffman was getting tagged and the arms you had already burned, you weren't going to survive that inning or another bottom of there. Great effort down the stretch, but your ace didn't have it, and Hoffman blew 2 games in the final three, that sort of tells the whole story. You shouldn't even have been PLAYING this game.

 

[Your Mother]

But don't come out with this petty stuff about the touching the plate.

Not really petty, Holliday never touched. Should've been 2 out, none on, tied game. Catcher arguing isn't going to change anything, and he probably didn't have a good sense if Holliday had touched the plate anyway.GunZ, how was Luka's?

 

[ScottNorwood]

I'll sleep easy tonight know that it took one of the worst blown calls in Major League history to end the Friars season. Despite the season ending injuries to Bradley and Cameron, my boys fought hard.

Whether or not Holliday got a piece of the plate or not is way more in question than the blown homerun call.

The Atkins homerun call was one of the worst calls I've ever seen. It would've been a complete farce if the Padres won.

 

[RBM]

But don't come out with this petty stuff about the touching the plate.

Not really petty, Holliday never touched. Should've been 2 out, none on, tied game.

Helton wouldve been on 2nd

 

[tommyGunZ]

Holiday still hasn't touched home plate. What a horse#### call.

 

[MAC_32]

I probably should just pm gunZ, but...

... any guesses where Derek Norris bats in the order? I'm assuming he'll play about 75-80% of the time, he'll get all lefties but also some righties, 500 PA's seems reasonable.

I think he's the 4th best bat in the lineup, but due to the bats the Pads have available I'm having a hard time envisioning him anywhere above 6th. That's a big difference than if he can get connected in someway to the Myers-Kemp-Upton trio.

I'm trying to be conservative with his projections, 255/355/405, but if he continues to progress I think there's 285/395/455 upside, and I can't imagine the Pads keep that stashed in the bottom half of the order just because he swings the bat the same way as their top 3.

Any thoughts? I tentatively have him as a bargain 2nd catcher or if I go cheap in one catcher leagues targeting him, but his potential to climb the batting order is my current sticking point.

 

[Eephus]

Episode IV: A New Hope

 

[Eephus]

I probably should just pm gunZ, but...

... any guesses where Derek Norris bats in the order? I'm assuming he'll play about 75-80% of the time, he'll get all lefties but also some righties, 500 PA's seems reasonable.

I think he's the 4th best bat in the lineup, but due to the bats the Pads have available I'm having a hard time envisioning him anywhere above 6th. That's a big difference than if he can get connected in someway to the Myers-Kemp-Upton trio.

I'm trying to be conservative with his projections, 255/355/405, but if he continues to progress I think there's 285/395/455 upside, and I can't imagine the Pads keep that stashed in the bottom half of the order just because he swings the bat the same way as their top 3.

Any thoughts? I tentatively have him as a bargain 2nd catcher or if I go cheap in one catcher leagues targeting him, but his potential to climb the batting order is my current sticking point.

Their lineup is heavily right handed. Because of that, I think Norris will get moved behind Alonso in the batting order just to break things up.

285/395/455 is very optimistic

 

[MAC_32]

285/395/455 is very optimistic

It is. Just seeing a lot of positive indicators

149/261/184 vs. righties in 2013, improved to 244/340/359 last year.

320/410/580 vs. lefties in 2013. Not as strong last year, but could be explained by focusing so much on righties. Does he get the right balance this year?

Similar story with power. It looks like he made a concerted effort to make more contact as his BABIP spiked and trading off FB's for GB's as he did will do that. It could also explain the dip in his HR/FB (and ISO) too. However, his batted ball distance was consistent with previous seasons. Additionally, his IFFB continues to decline. So maybe this was a combo of skills progression and bad luck?

K's have declined + BB's have increased year over year since 2012. K's come back to the contact approach, but the steadily increasing BB's could lead to more pitches to hit - read, mash.

He turns 26 this week, so he's still got his peak ahead of him, so if he connects the dots between the change in approach approach and progress vs. righties last year and the power approach he came up with then this could be the breakout.

 

[Eephus]

285/395/455 is very optimistic

It is. Just seeing a lot of positive indicators

149/261/184 vs. righties in 2013, improved to 244/340/359 last year.

320/410/580 vs. lefties in 2013. Not as strong last year, but could be explained by focusing so much on righties. Does he get the right balance this year?

Similar story with power. It looks like he made a concerted effort to make more contact as his BABIP spiked and trading off FB's for GB's as he did will do that. It could also explain the dip in his HR/FB (and ISO) too. However, his batted ball distance was consistent with previous seasons. Additionally, his IFFB continues to decline. So maybe this was a combo of skills progression and bad luck?

K's have declined + BB's have increased year over year since 2012. K's come back to the contact approach, but the steadily increasing BB's could lead to more pitches to hit - read, mash.

He turns 26 this week, so he's still got his peak ahead of him, so if he connects the dots between the change in approach approach and progress vs. righties last year and the power approach he came up with then this could be the breakout.

Highlight reel

 

[MAC_32]

Yeah, certainly one of the biggest concerns with thinking he'll play more often than he did in Oakland, even if his bat does get better.

 

[tommyGunZ]

285/395/455 is very optimistic

It is. Just seeing a lot of positive indicators

149/261/184 vs. righties in 2013, improved to 244/340/359 last year.

320/410/580 vs. lefties in 2013. Not as strong last year, but could be explained by focusing so much on righties. Does he get the right balance this year?

Similar story with power. It looks like he made a concerted effort to make more contact as his BABIP spiked and trading off FB's for GB's as he did will do that. It could also explain the dip in his HR/FB (and ISO) too. However, his batted ball distance was consistent with previous seasons. Additionally, his IFFB continues to decline. So maybe this was a combo of skills progression and bad luck?

K's have declined + BB's have increased year over year since 2012. K's come back to the contact approach, but the steadily increasing BB's could lead to more pitches to hit - read, mash.

He turns 26 this week, so he's still got his peak ahead of him, so if he connects the dots between the change in approach approach and progress vs. righties last year and the power approach he came up with then this could be the breakout.

Highlight reel

Damn you Eephus!

 

[tommyGunZ]

I probably should just pm gunZ, but...

... any guesses where Derek Norris bats in the order? I'm assuming he'll play about 75-80% of the time, he'll get all lefties but also some righties, 500 PA's seems reasonable.

I think he's the 4th best bat in the lineup, but due to the bats the Pads have available I'm having a hard time envisioning him anywhere above 6th. That's a big difference than if he can get connected in someway to the Myers-Kemp-Upton trio.

I'm trying to be conservative with his projections, 255/355/405, but if he continues to progress I think there's 285/395/455 upside, and I can't imagine the Pads keep that stashed in the bottom half of the order just because he swings the bat the same way as their top 3.

Any thoughts? I tentatively have him as a bargain 2nd catcher or if I go cheap in one catcher leagues targeting him, but his potential to climb the batting order is my current sticking point.

Eephus is correct that most of the imaginary lineups I've seen have Norris bumped down to ~ 6th, 7th in the lineup due to all the RH bats and the need to leverage Alonso's and/or Amarista's LH bats. Personally, I don't agree with those projected lineups.

It's Norris, Alonso, Gyorko, and Middlebrooks vying for the 1,2,6, and 7 spots. Best lineup IMO is Norris leading off, followed by Alonso, with Jedd in the 6th slot and Middlebrooks batting 7th. I don't know if Buddy will entertain that, but he's never shied away from creative lineups in the past. That said, perhaps he'll be less creative this year now that he's not having to constantly put guys who should hit 7th in the 3 hole due to the lack of talent.

 

[tommyGunZ]

In short Mac - I'd temper expectations, but if he's cheap enough, there is certainly upside, especially in R's, as he has every opportunity to claim one of the top 2 slots in the lineup.

 

[Eephus]

Catchers with most games in a season batting leadoff (1957-2007)

I'm pretty sure Jason Kendall's career mark won't be challenged any time soon.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Catchers with most games in a season batting leadoff (1957-2007)

I'm pretty sure Jason Kendall's career mark won't be challenged any time soon.

Agreed. If I had to put money on the majority of his starts, I'd bet the 2 hole.

Look at the OBPs of the other choices. Brutal.

 

[MAC_32]

Catchers with most games in a season batting leadoff (1957-2007)

I'm pretty sure Jason Kendall's career mark won't be challenged any time soon.

Agreed. If I had to put money on the majority of his starts, I'd bet the 2 hole.

Look at the OBPs of the other choices. Brutal.

...and if he does get the 2 hole he's going to get pitches to hit with Myers, Kemp, and Upton waiting behind him. Thinking this could benefit him more vs. righties than anything as he's going to mash lefties regardless.

Thanks, both of you, for tempering my expectations a bit, but also confirming my belief that there should be some value to exploit here.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Hey Padres fans, don't worry about what these "dorks" say about "UZR" and "range factor." ZOMG Matt Kemp, right?