Fullback Fro
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There is some money to be made every year in fantasy football. I'm not talking about U.S. legal tender but value. I'm talking about where to find value. This value can change day to day as news and information exposes itself as the season nears. A player today can can see a dramatic change in perceived value between now and August. But what is "value" exactly. The word "value" is thrown around fantasy football like a Frisbee in a college quad. Value is defined on http://wordsmythe.com as:
Value
Syllables: val-ue
Parts of speech: noun , transitive verb
Part of Speech noun
Pronunciation vael yu
Definition 1. an amount, esp. of money, considered to be equivalent to, or suitable exchange for, a thing or service.
But in fantasy football we don't use money to buy and sell players. So what is our currency? The only thing that we really have with regards to ownership is draft picks or players already drafted. The goal of fantasy football is to collect the most amounts of valued or positive stats using the least amount of players. So the definition for fantasy purposes should read:
Perceived % of stat collecting probability of a player, considered to be equivalent to, or suitable exchange for, draft pick
Basically we trade our draft picks for players who we think can give us the maximum probability to collect valued statistics. So when I say "There is some money to be made every year in fantasy football.” what I mean is "There are guys that you can find later in drafts who will accumulate statistics equivalents to the perceived value of guys that go early in drafts."
Most of you guys already know this but I thought I would throw it out there to preface my observations. So where is this value? I have made some observations that I want to run through with regards to where I see value today. This could all shift come August as more info comes to light and more coverage exposes some of observations more directly.
Seattle's Passing Game.
Someone needs to catch passes in Seattle. My money is on Nate Burrelson. Deion Branch start the season on the PUP list. Engram is a prototypical slot receiver. Someone has to play the Z Receiver in the Seattle Offense. This will be his third year in this system and Burrelson took the jump in ’07 to legitimate fantasy WR. He’s currently being drafted around WR45. He finished last year as WR30 and is in a better position this year.
Baltimore’s Running Game
Cam Cameron. Cam Cameron. Cam Cameron. Baltimore will lean on Willis this year. He should be a multidimensional threat. Cam Cameron’s play calling set up LT in SD for so many years. He had Ronnie Brown in a very similar situation ranked as the #1 fantasy back last year before his injury. With inconsistent QB play and a solid offensive line returning, Willis could move into elite back status. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being drafted with a top 3 pick in ’09. If you have a later pick don’t hesitate to pair him up with Reggie Wayne and you will be off to a terrific start. One think I think its very important with regards to drafting Willis is you will need to handcuff him with rookie Ray Rice this year. You will be able to get him in a middle teen round to protect your investment.
Miami’s Passing Game
Wilford and Ted Ginn could over good value this year, but my real target will be Anthony Fasano. Fasono was drafted by Parcells and was a backup to Witten in Dallas. Now Parcells trades a mid round pick for him. It sounds like Parcells really likes this kid. Reports already have him speculated as the starter. With the success Witten had in the Dallas offense, Fasano, having a similar skill set, could see similar results. He is being drafted around TE 25. I would not be surprised with top 10 numbers. Top 15 seems more reasonable.
Atlanta’s Passing Game
Roddy White enjoyed his breakout year last year in Mike Zimmer’s aggressive passing style offense. Although the air attack wasn’t one for the ages, Roddy was able to put up decent fantasy numbers. STAY AWAY FROM WHITE THIS YEAR. Atlanta installs a defensive minded head coach and signed ball control running back Michael Turner to move the chains. With a rookie QB likely starting this year, all signs point to a down year for the ATL passing game as a whole. Roddy White is being drafted in the mid 20’s as far as WR’s drafted. Take your chance on someone else in that tier, like Chris Chambers.
Cleveland’s Passing Game
We all know Braylon Edwards is a stud. Donte Stallworth is the guy I got my eye on. Joe Jurevicius has had two knee surgeries this off-season. Who knows if he’ll be back this season and if he does come back he will likely fill in as the 3rd WR or slot role. Stallworth has the speed and talent to excel in single coverage on the other side of Braylon. With a strong-armed QB, Donte should see a dramatic increase in targets this year.
Tennessee’s Running/Passing Game
In PPR leagues, I will be targeting Chris Johnson in every league. I believe this kid has a chance to be something special. With blazing fast speed he will be utilized on quick screen, draws, dump offs, slants. Jeff Fisher will do anything they can to get it into their 1st round pick’s hands. And he will take it some of these to the house. I’d bet my house on it. Drafting this guy is what makes fantasy football fun.
Most of you all probably already know this stuff. I just thought I share some of my current observatioins. That’s it for this installment of Fro’s O’s.
Value
Syllables: val-ue
Parts of speech: noun , transitive verb
Part of Speech noun
Pronunciation vael yu
Definition 1. an amount, esp. of money, considered to be equivalent to, or suitable exchange for, a thing or service.
But in fantasy football we don't use money to buy and sell players. So what is our currency? The only thing that we really have with regards to ownership is draft picks or players already drafted. The goal of fantasy football is to collect the most amounts of valued or positive stats using the least amount of players. So the definition for fantasy purposes should read:
Perceived % of stat collecting probability of a player, considered to be equivalent to, or suitable exchange for, draft pick
Basically we trade our draft picks for players who we think can give us the maximum probability to collect valued statistics. So when I say "There is some money to be made every year in fantasy football.” what I mean is "There are guys that you can find later in drafts who will accumulate statistics equivalents to the perceived value of guys that go early in drafts."
Most of you guys already know this but I thought I would throw it out there to preface my observations. So where is this value? I have made some observations that I want to run through with regards to where I see value today. This could all shift come August as more info comes to light and more coverage exposes some of observations more directly.
Seattle's Passing Game.
Someone needs to catch passes in Seattle. My money is on Nate Burrelson. Deion Branch start the season on the PUP list. Engram is a prototypical slot receiver. Someone has to play the Z Receiver in the Seattle Offense. This will be his third year in this system and Burrelson took the jump in ’07 to legitimate fantasy WR. He’s currently being drafted around WR45. He finished last year as WR30 and is in a better position this year.
Baltimore’s Running Game
Cam Cameron. Cam Cameron. Cam Cameron. Baltimore will lean on Willis this year. He should be a multidimensional threat. Cam Cameron’s play calling set up LT in SD for so many years. He had Ronnie Brown in a very similar situation ranked as the #1 fantasy back last year before his injury. With inconsistent QB play and a solid offensive line returning, Willis could move into elite back status. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being drafted with a top 3 pick in ’09. If you have a later pick don’t hesitate to pair him up with Reggie Wayne and you will be off to a terrific start. One think I think its very important with regards to drafting Willis is you will need to handcuff him with rookie Ray Rice this year. You will be able to get him in a middle teen round to protect your investment.
Miami’s Passing Game
Wilford and Ted Ginn could over good value this year, but my real target will be Anthony Fasano. Fasono was drafted by Parcells and was a backup to Witten in Dallas. Now Parcells trades a mid round pick for him. It sounds like Parcells really likes this kid. Reports already have him speculated as the starter. With the success Witten had in the Dallas offense, Fasano, having a similar skill set, could see similar results. He is being drafted around TE 25. I would not be surprised with top 10 numbers. Top 15 seems more reasonable.
Atlanta’s Passing Game
Roddy White enjoyed his breakout year last year in Mike Zimmer’s aggressive passing style offense. Although the air attack wasn’t one for the ages, Roddy was able to put up decent fantasy numbers. STAY AWAY FROM WHITE THIS YEAR. Atlanta installs a defensive minded head coach and signed ball control running back Michael Turner to move the chains. With a rookie QB likely starting this year, all signs point to a down year for the ATL passing game as a whole. Roddy White is being drafted in the mid 20’s as far as WR’s drafted. Take your chance on someone else in that tier, like Chris Chambers.
Cleveland’s Passing Game
We all know Braylon Edwards is a stud. Donte Stallworth is the guy I got my eye on. Joe Jurevicius has had two knee surgeries this off-season. Who knows if he’ll be back this season and if he does come back he will likely fill in as the 3rd WR or slot role. Stallworth has the speed and talent to excel in single coverage on the other side of Braylon. With a strong-armed QB, Donte should see a dramatic increase in targets this year.
Tennessee’s Running/Passing Game
In PPR leagues, I will be targeting Chris Johnson in every league. I believe this kid has a chance to be something special. With blazing fast speed he will be utilized on quick screen, draws, dump offs, slants. Jeff Fisher will do anything they can to get it into their 1st round pick’s hands. And he will take it some of these to the house. I’d bet my house on it. Drafting this guy is what makes fantasy football fun.
Most of you all probably already know this stuff. I just thought I share some of my current observatioins. That’s it for this installment of Fro’s O’s.