ZWK
Footballguy
Here are generic rookie rankings for this year's draft class (previously: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and VBD by draft pick spreadsheet which shows where these numbers come from).
Generic rookie rankings are based only on a player's position and draft pick. For example, this year Dalvin Cook is treated simply as "RB drafted with pick 41", and we can estimate his prospects by looking at the total career VBD of previous RBs who were taken around that point in the draft.
In more detail: I took every RB drafted from 1993-2006, made a plot of career VBD vs. draft pick, and fit a curve to it. Then I adjusted that curve to account for the change in draft value over time (RBs are being drafted later than they used to be, but they aren't scoring any less VBD, so we'd expect a RB drafted at pick 41 in 2017 to have more fantasy value than a RB drafted at pick 41 in 1997). I did something similar for other positions (more details here on how I started this project and here on how I did the adjustments for changing draft value).
Here are the rankings with tier breaks for PPR (though the dropoff in value from Howard onwards is pretty gradual so don't read too much into the tiering); you can see the exact projected VBD for PPR and non-PPR in the spreadsheet.
pk Pos Player Team
4 RB Leonard Fournette JAX
8 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR
5 WR Corey Davis TEN
7 WR Mike Williams LAC
9 WR John Ross CIN
19 TE O.J. Howard TB
41 RB Dalvin Cook MIN
23 TE Evan Engram NYG
2 QB Mitchell Trubisky CHI
48 RB Joe Mixon CIN
29 TE David Njoku CLE
37 WR Zay Jones BUF
40 WR Curtis Samuel CAR
67 RB Alvin Kamara NO
10 QB Patrick Mahomes KC
86 RB Kareem Hunt KC
12 QB Deshaun Watson HOU
89 RB D'Onta Foreman HOU
62 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT
105 RB James Conner PIT
69 WR Cooper Kupp RAM
72 WR Taywan Taylor TEN
114 RB Samaje Perine WAS
79 WR ArDarius Stewart NYJ
82 WR Carlos Henderson DEN
84 WR Chris Godwin TB
119 RB Tarik Cohen CHI
121 RB Joe Williams SF
44 TE Gerald Everett RAM
45 TE Adam Shaheen CHI
96 WR Kenny Golladay DET
132 RB Donnel Pumphrey PHI
98 WR Chad Williams ARI
134 RB Jamaal Williams GB
140 RB Wayne Gallman NYG
106 WR Amara Darboh SEA
143 RB Marlon Mack IND
110 WR Dede Westbrook JAX
100 TE Jonnu Smith TEN
117 WR Josh Reynolds RAM
118 WR Mack Hollins PHI
156 RB Brian Hill ATL
162 RB Jeremy McNichols TB
128 WR Josh Malone CIN
52 QB DeShone Kizer CLE
133 WR Ryan Switzer DAL
179 RB T.J. Logan ARI
182 RB Aaron Jones GB
127 TE Michael Roberts DET
139 WR Jehu Chesson KC
188 RB Elijah McGuire NYJ
141 WR Chad Hansen NYJ
87 QB Davis Webb NYG
I have written up some of my analysis & opinions on this year's draft class in another thread, but generic rankings don't require any analysis or opinions of the players so I won't put any here.
Generic rookie rankings are based only on a player's position and draft pick. For example, this year Dalvin Cook is treated simply as "RB drafted with pick 41", and we can estimate his prospects by looking at the total career VBD of previous RBs who were taken around that point in the draft.
In more detail: I took every RB drafted from 1993-2006, made a plot of career VBD vs. draft pick, and fit a curve to it. Then I adjusted that curve to account for the change in draft value over time (RBs are being drafted later than they used to be, but they aren't scoring any less VBD, so we'd expect a RB drafted at pick 41 in 2017 to have more fantasy value than a RB drafted at pick 41 in 1997). I did something similar for other positions (more details here on how I started this project and here on how I did the adjustments for changing draft value).
Here are the rankings with tier breaks for PPR (though the dropoff in value from Howard onwards is pretty gradual so don't read too much into the tiering); you can see the exact projected VBD for PPR and non-PPR in the spreadsheet.
pk Pos Player Team
4 RB Leonard Fournette JAX
8 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR
5 WR Corey Davis TEN
7 WR Mike Williams LAC
9 WR John Ross CIN
19 TE O.J. Howard TB
41 RB Dalvin Cook MIN
23 TE Evan Engram NYG
2 QB Mitchell Trubisky CHI
48 RB Joe Mixon CIN
29 TE David Njoku CLE
37 WR Zay Jones BUF
40 WR Curtis Samuel CAR
67 RB Alvin Kamara NO
10 QB Patrick Mahomes KC
86 RB Kareem Hunt KC
12 QB Deshaun Watson HOU
89 RB D'Onta Foreman HOU
62 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT
105 RB James Conner PIT
69 WR Cooper Kupp RAM
72 WR Taywan Taylor TEN
114 RB Samaje Perine WAS
79 WR ArDarius Stewart NYJ
82 WR Carlos Henderson DEN
84 WR Chris Godwin TB
119 RB Tarik Cohen CHI
121 RB Joe Williams SF
44 TE Gerald Everett RAM
45 TE Adam Shaheen CHI
96 WR Kenny Golladay DET
132 RB Donnel Pumphrey PHI
98 WR Chad Williams ARI
134 RB Jamaal Williams GB
140 RB Wayne Gallman NYG
106 WR Amara Darboh SEA
143 RB Marlon Mack IND
110 WR Dede Westbrook JAX
100 TE Jonnu Smith TEN
117 WR Josh Reynolds RAM
118 WR Mack Hollins PHI
156 RB Brian Hill ATL
162 RB Jeremy McNichols TB
128 WR Josh Malone CIN
52 QB DeShone Kizer CLE
133 WR Ryan Switzer DAL
179 RB T.J. Logan ARI
182 RB Aaron Jones GB
127 TE Michael Roberts DET
139 WR Jehu Chesson KC
188 RB Elijah McGuire NYJ
141 WR Chad Hansen NYJ
87 QB Davis Webb NYG
I have written up some of my analysis & opinions on this year's draft class in another thread, but generic rankings don't require any analysis or opinions of the players so I won't put any here.
