Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I thought I’d throw this out there for general and specific discussion since it was on my mind as I wrote this week’s subscriber column and I’ve gotten bunches of emails and PMs from folks that are dealing with this quandary in their lineups and those in smaller leagues on their rosters. I was going to hold it until next week’s column, but I’m interested in the thoughts of the Forum. Apologies in advance if this gets long-winded (as usual 
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I had Barrett Ruud, Jon Beason and DJ Williams in my preseason top four. I was confident that talent and scheme would dovetail into a huge season for Ruud, that the loss of Kemoeatu and a spare Tampa-2 snap or three wouldn’t hurt Beason much and that Williams would continue to beat his weak competition to the ball for tackles on a bad defense. I still think these guys are on the elite side of the talent and opportunity curve and I’m generally against changing course during the first two weeks without good reason.But I was extremely high on Curtis Lofton, EJ Henderson and Justin Durant this offseason, too. Guys like David Harris and Thomas Davis have begun to win me over with efforts that backed up what we saw in the preseason and some role changes in their defensive schemes. All seem like high-upside guys that have already solidified themselves as no longer risky upside props.
And it’s got my spidey senses tingling a bit. At a minimum, I’ve been advocating getting the second group in the lineup over the first group. It’s been very hard to preach my usual “patience with studs” angle with some of these guys.
What I’m seeing:
Ruud: Defensive tackles allowing too many offensive linemen to the second level. Not shedding blocks as well. Has had better competition than expected from the secondary and OLBs for tackles. Still around the ball based on game and stat review, but much of the added scheme value being negated.
Beason: Mobility improved last week. Facing more blockers than expected due to continued injury to the DT corps. Team playing much more Tampa-2 than expected, giving added value to Thomas Davis (see this week’s RTD).
Williams: Long noted issues with instincts and general linebacker play more an issue this year than ever. Andra Davis beginning the season hotter than he ever has in role that’s not that much different than he’s played in the past. Brian Dawkins making a difference.
Durant: Everywhere on a defense struggling to find itself and little competition for tackles in a target-rich environment.
Lofton: Exactly what I thought he’d be. No concern for missed nickel snaps. Continuing to make plays despite big OLB tackle numbers.
Henderson: One of the rare backers to survive the DET matchup. Williams Wall to play all year.
Harris: Jets playing 4-3 and using Harris at MLB in a big play role.
Davis: Panthers look like a Tampa-2 team and Davis compares very favorably to Derrick Brooks/Lance Briggs.
You can add guys like Vilma (tackle opportunity and scheme concerns) and Laurinaitis (opportunity and competition more in his favor than expected) here, too.
What I’m thinking:
Durant/Lofton and possibly Henderson/Harris/Davis are emerging as more likely 100 solo tackle threats than Ruud/Beason/Williams. I’d almost certainly be dumping my preseason #4 LB (Williams) for any of the Emerging Five. I’m having a very hard time thinking that my top five backers for the rest of 2009 would not be Willis-Durant-Lofton and some combination of Ruud/Beason/Laurinaitis/Harris/Henderson with Mayo/Cooper/Lewis/etc behind.
My concern:
Upside vs patience. Am I overrating the upside guys who started hot and turning my back on the patience argument too soon?
My conclusion:
Trust the spidey senses. I’d think hard about moving on/starting Durant and Lofton over Beason and Williams and possibly Ruud. I’d also think hard on grabbing/starting Davis and Laurinaitis over guys like Morrison and Briggs and Fletcher and Lewis.
What are you guys seeing?
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I had Barrett Ruud, Jon Beason and DJ Williams in my preseason top four. I was confident that talent and scheme would dovetail into a huge season for Ruud, that the loss of Kemoeatu and a spare Tampa-2 snap or three wouldn’t hurt Beason much and that Williams would continue to beat his weak competition to the ball for tackles on a bad defense. I still think these guys are on the elite side of the talent and opportunity curve and I’m generally against changing course during the first two weeks without good reason.But I was extremely high on Curtis Lofton, EJ Henderson and Justin Durant this offseason, too. Guys like David Harris and Thomas Davis have begun to win me over with efforts that backed up what we saw in the preseason and some role changes in their defensive schemes. All seem like high-upside guys that have already solidified themselves as no longer risky upside props.
And it’s got my spidey senses tingling a bit. At a minimum, I’ve been advocating getting the second group in the lineup over the first group. It’s been very hard to preach my usual “patience with studs” angle with some of these guys.
What I’m seeing:
Ruud: Defensive tackles allowing too many offensive linemen to the second level. Not shedding blocks as well. Has had better competition than expected from the secondary and OLBs for tackles. Still around the ball based on game and stat review, but much of the added scheme value being negated.
Beason: Mobility improved last week. Facing more blockers than expected due to continued injury to the DT corps. Team playing much more Tampa-2 than expected, giving added value to Thomas Davis (see this week’s RTD).
Williams: Long noted issues with instincts and general linebacker play more an issue this year than ever. Andra Davis beginning the season hotter than he ever has in role that’s not that much different than he’s played in the past. Brian Dawkins making a difference.
Durant: Everywhere on a defense struggling to find itself and little competition for tackles in a target-rich environment.
Lofton: Exactly what I thought he’d be. No concern for missed nickel snaps. Continuing to make plays despite big OLB tackle numbers.
Henderson: One of the rare backers to survive the DET matchup. Williams Wall to play all year.
Harris: Jets playing 4-3 and using Harris at MLB in a big play role.
Davis: Panthers look like a Tampa-2 team and Davis compares very favorably to Derrick Brooks/Lance Briggs.
You can add guys like Vilma (tackle opportunity and scheme concerns) and Laurinaitis (opportunity and competition more in his favor than expected) here, too.
What I’m thinking:
Durant/Lofton and possibly Henderson/Harris/Davis are emerging as more likely 100 solo tackle threats than Ruud/Beason/Williams. I’d almost certainly be dumping my preseason #4 LB (Williams) for any of the Emerging Five. I’m having a very hard time thinking that my top five backers for the rest of 2009 would not be Willis-Durant-Lofton and some combination of Ruud/Beason/Laurinaitis/Harris/Henderson with Mayo/Cooper/Lewis/etc behind.
My concern:
Upside vs patience. Am I overrating the upside guys who started hot and turning my back on the patience argument too soon?
My conclusion:
Trust the spidey senses. I’d think hard about moving on/starting Durant and Lofton over Beason and Williams and possibly Ruud. I’d also think hard on grabbing/starting Davis and Laurinaitis over guys like Morrison and Briggs and Fletcher and Lewis.
What are you guys seeing?
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