This thread is a discussion of my thoughts in going heavy-WR in a dynasty startup draft. Hopefully this would help others that have similar strategies.
Draft website: http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=52751&O=17
Rosters: http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=52751&O=07
Lineup and scoring: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex te/rb/wr, 1 K, 1 Def. 24 roster spots, PPR, 6 pts for all TDs
Predraft strategy:
I am very risk averse in dynasties, and knew I would be looking at WR or Rodgers in the first round, depending on where I landed in the draft order. I ended up getting 1.01, which is a first for me in a startup dynasty. I really didn't like this spot, and would have preferred to have been drafting towards the middle of the round, but after several turns, I started to enjoy this spot. In dynasty startups, I often look to go heavy on WRs, stud TE, and solid QB, and while 1.01 isn't a great spot for this, following rounds ended up working out well for this strategy.
1.01 WR Calvin Johnson, DET (26)
I attempted to move out of 1.01 to slide down and still end up with Calvin, but there was very little interest in this spot, and no offer that I gave any serious consideration to. Perhaps two years ago I would have went with AP, but ultimately I didn't have a good feeling about him and wanted a safer pick in this PPR. While this is earlier than Calvin normally goes, I felt this is a safe pick and only a few spots earlier than he would normally go.
2.12 WR Brandon Marshall, MIA (27)
3.01 WR Dwayne Bowe, KCC (27)
My belief was there was unlikely to be any RBs at this spot that I would be willing to move on unless there was a strong run on WRs. Ultimately, there was a pretty fair mix of positions taken and going WR-strong here was easy to decide. In my predraft mock, I had been hoping to pull Marshall and Austin, but Miles went a few picks prior. I was still able to get Marshall, and paired my other WR to Bowe and Mike Williams, ultimately going with a Bowe who I felt, while he won't do what he did last year again in terms of his TD rate, should still be a 75-1000-8 kind of WR and pretty solidly in the top 15. Aside from his 2009 season where he was suspended, he has been very solid with bad teams and should KC regress, I still expect a solid year.
4.12 RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR (27)
5.01 TE Vernon Davis, SFO (27)
Coming up on these picks, I gave serious consideration to going WR-TE or QB-TE, depending on who dropped to me. I was pretty certain that I would be taken Vernon if he fell to this spot, and I had him 2nd on my list of dynasty TEs. Luckily, he was able to fall to me and was an easy pick. For the other spot, I had been hoping for Welker, Ryan Mathews, Holmes, Deangelo, and Romo. Out of these, the only one that fell to me was DeAngelo, making this pick also rather easy. I had briefly considered Brady, but felt there was a slight chance that I could move up into the early-mid 6th to get him if he fell some.
6.07 QB Ben Rothlisberger, PIT (29)
Having seen another owner trade their 5th round pick for a 2012 1st rounder, I immediately sent an offer of my 2012 first round pick for their 6th rounder, which was quickly accepted. I would do this trade 100/100 times, and it ended up being a key to my draft enabling me to get Rothlisberger for my first next year. No brainer for me, as I try to build dynasties to win immediately. The only other consideration I had was to go for Collie here and then Ben/Stafford at the end of the round. Ultimately, I was a bit worried about Ben falling to 6.12, and worried about Staffords health and felt I would need to spend another pick on a backup. Stafford looks spectacular so far, but so has Ben and I know I won't need to move early on a backup with him.
6.12 WR Anquan Boldin, BAL (31)
7.01 RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA (25)
At this point, I am trying to work on my starting lineup, which I expected to be 2rb/4wr for most weeks. I want to go best available WR and RB here, and two guys I had pegged in my predraft mock were still fallling to me--Lynch and Boldin. I had Collie a little ahead of Boldin, but he got picked a few before me. I had Boldin as the last WR in my "safe top-25" WR tier, and felt Lynch would be a good enough #2. Overall, I think I spent about 8 seconds making these two picks.
8.12 RB Joseph Addai, IND (28)
9.01 WR Steve Smith, CAR (33)
Continuing with my plan to get a starting lineup complete, I wanted to once again go RB-WR here. With this starting lineup requirements, we are looking at 8 starting spots between qb-rb-wr-te, and given bye weeks, I really wanted 9-10 strong here before I started taking any "projection" type of players (marginal rookies and unproven players). Ultimately, I feel a lot of these guys are not worth the risk, and I'd much rather take a guy that will help me win immediately then hoping that a guy I pick makes good on his talent. I knew I wanted one of three RBs-- Reggie Bush, Addai, and Fred Jackson. All three guys I project to be right in the 26-32 rb range in a PPR league, and the ability to flex if possible during bye weeks. I was fairly confident in the role of Addai and Bush, but a bit weery on F-Jax as earlier in the day was the report about him being unhappy in his role. Ultimately, Bush and Jackson went before I was on the clock, making the Addai pick rather quickly. For the WR spot, I had it narrowed down to three options--Lance Moore, Steve Smith (CAR), and Jordy Nelson. I had worries about all three guys for various reasons, and eventually went with the veteran in Smith. I don't expect him to hit 1000 yards again, but would be a bit suprised if he didn't end up with 60-800-5 and good for WR5 and Flex player during bye weeks. I had several suggestions that I should have went Delone Carter and securing the Indy RB, but I didn't want to spend a 9th round pick on a guy that I frankly don't believe is very talented, and not likely a long term solution. I felt confident I could find a few scatbacks in the teens that would give me similar numbers to what Delone would have in the event of an injury to Addai.
10.12 TE Brandon Pettigrew, DET (26)
11.01 QB Cam Newton, CAR (22)
At this point, we had a mix of strategies employed by other owners. Some teams taking backup QBs, taking their first TE, and a lot of unproven youth flying off the board. I had two guys targetted in the 10-14 rounds that I really wanted to have on this team--Pettigrew and Cam Newton. On Pettigrew, I feel he is grossly undervalued. 70 receptions, over 700 yards without the franchise QB last year. Brandon has everything you need for great ppr TE fantasy successful -- a great QB, great WR that stretches the field, mediocre but dependable WR2. TDs are hard to predict, and he only had 4 last year. An uptick of just two TDs this year puts him right after the top 5-6 TEs in the league, and an overall improvement in just his 3rd year with the franchise QB back at the helm has him pushing the elite. Clearly, I'm higher on him that others but at this point, he should be good value for his age/production, even if he only finishes around 12th for TEs. I went with Newton as the second pick, and who will ultimately likely be my backup to Ben (and has a average matchup vs Detroit on Ben's bye). I have no illusions of Cam being a strong NFL QB this year, or perhaps ever. I do expect him to push into the 15-20 range on his feet alone. He obviously has a huge floor, but also a big big ceiling with his arm and feet.
12.12 WR Jordy Nelson, GBP (26)
13.01 WR Steve Smith, PHI (26)
Lots of TEs come off the board after I picked, making me feel secure in the fact that I had to have drafted Pettigrew during the last turn or I would have missed him. A great deal of WRs come off the list, and I notice that my 9.01 consideration, Jordy Nelson, continues to plummet. I guess the resigning of James Jones scared some off, but the upside of Jordy was too high for me to pass on, and considering I had him on my short list 4 rounds ago, I instantly took him. I also feel he is a guy that could have some good trade value if he performs well thie year. I had similar thoughts to the other pick, and chose Steve Smith--Philly version. Consider this--while a great deal of WRs were flying off the board, many who had never sniffed 50 receptions or 500 yards, or were rookies and had no likelihood of contributing this year, here is what I got in Smith: a 26 year old possession receiver who has put up over 100 catches in one season, and was on pace again the following year. Having signed only a one-year deal, he is eligible for FA next year and can choose his team. Tons of upside here, in my opinion, assuming he makes it back from his injury.
14.12 RB Jerome Harrison, DET (28)
15.01 QB Tim Tebow, DEN (24)
Similar to Cam, Tebow is a guy that has great potential with his feet, but needs tons of work to be an NFL QB. Continuing my theme of shooting for high upside picks, I am glad to have him on board. With the second pick, I wanted to start to assemble some RB depth and players I felt could be good bargains in the teens. Harrison fit this mold, as a guy that is well-suited for the system in Detroit. Despite moving around a great deal, Jerome has a fair amount of talent. With Best's injury hisotry, he is certainly someone that could get a few starts if things work out. So far, Best is still struggling with injuries, and Harrison has performed decently this preseason, but would likely have some competition for carries .
16.12 RB Darren Sproles, NOS (28)
17.01 D Baltimore Ravens
At this point, several defenses have come off the board, and I don't want to be left with two mediocre squads. The Ravens were the top team on my board at this time. With the second pick, I wanted to get a pass-catching Rb that I could hope for something in a spot start. I generally shy away from drafting RBs like Dion Lewis, Powell, or Johnny White-- guys that I don't believe are talented enough to be bell-cows. Instead of chasing a guy who *might* end up getting enough work to be a part-timer or change-of-pace back, I'd rather just get that person already. I was hoping for Woodhead, but he was well gone at this point and was ok with Sproles. Ingram and Thomas are two guys who both have injury histories, which may provide Sproles to get a few more carries in the event one of them went down. A guy like Darren doesn't need a ton of touches to be flex startable, and I like the insurance with him here. Hopefully I will never have to start him.
18.12 RB Justin Forsett, SEA (25)
19.01 RB Steve Slaton, HOU (25)
I want to get Forsette, as some sort of protection against a Lynch injury. I do really like Leon, and had him in leagues when he was a Jet. I expect him to cut into both Lynch and Forsett, but believe that Forsett would be the more valuable overall back. While I think he would split with Leon, he might be a RB3 if something happened to Lynch. He slid to me and was an easy pick. For a while, it had been speculated that Slaton would be the odd man out in Houston. This is likely the case, the only thing we don't know is where he ends up. Arizona, Tampa, or Indy would be fabulous and well worth the pick. If he ends up in a bad situation, he is an easy cut.
20.12 WR Marcus Easley, BUF (23)
21.01 K Stephen Gostkowski, NEP (27)
I got quite nervous in the 20th, as a guy I had pegged for my last pick, Marcus Easley, had a fantasatic half starting in a preseason game. It caused me to make a move on him earlier than I had planned, and luckily he was able to fall to me. A guy with a ton of talent, if he remains a starter could be a steal here. If he falls down the chart, another easy cut. Sidenote--one thing I like in my flier picks is "cuttability". I'd rather not sit on a guy that is not getting any playing time, as I have no idea his talent level. With Easley, I should know pretty quickly what to do with him. With the second pick, I didn't really have anyone that stood out in the rest of the draft, so I decided to take a kicker that I wouldn't have to worry about in Gostkowski.
22.12 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK (24)
23.01 D Arizona Cardinals
With my final two picks, I wanted to pair the Ravens with another defense, as they had several rough weeks to start the season. The Cardinals have a week schedule overall, and open with the Panthers. DHB is a terp that I loved from his college days, who has obviously been a disappointment. But he is one guy late that has a great amount of upside -- even without the Raiders reaching he would have been a first rounder. Another guy with cuttability that I should know 3-4 weeks into the seaon if he was worth keeping.
Final Roster
QB: Rothlisberger, Newton, Tebow
RB: D Williams, Lynch, Addai, Harrison, Sproles, Forsett, Slaton
WR: C Johnson, Marshall, Bowe, Boldin, S Smith (car), S Smith (phi), Nelson, Easley, Heyward-Bey
TE: Davis, Pettigrew
K: Gostkowski
D: Ravens, Cardinals
Overall, I'm pretty happy with how this draft turned out. The only pick I second guessed at the time was Steve Smith (car) at 9.01, but being able to get Nelson four rounds later eliminated that worry. Seattle offense is scaring me so far in the preseason, so I'm slightly worried about how Lynch will fare, but feel that Addai should be able to hold down RB2 until the bye weeks begin, when I'll have a better idea of what to expect from Marshawn. Health of the RB crew will be a concern-- if the main three stay healthy, I really like my chances this year. Obviously, the WRs are going to carry me and I will likely be starting 4 wide every week. I also feel my TEs will be stronger than most. I think Rothlisberger will be fantastic this year, with a great schedule for him and the Steelers. He should be able to have me middle of the pack in total QB scoring if he remains healthy. The heavy WR strategy is one that I am pretty familiar with and generally works to what I feel is my stronger points-- finding startable quality RBs to suppliment the rest of my lineup.
Draft website: http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=52751&O=17
Rosters: http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=52751&O=07
Lineup and scoring: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex te/rb/wr, 1 K, 1 Def. 24 roster spots, PPR, 6 pts for all TDs
Predraft strategy:
I am very risk averse in dynasties, and knew I would be looking at WR or Rodgers in the first round, depending on where I landed in the draft order. I ended up getting 1.01, which is a first for me in a startup dynasty. I really didn't like this spot, and would have preferred to have been drafting towards the middle of the round, but after several turns, I started to enjoy this spot. In dynasty startups, I often look to go heavy on WRs, stud TE, and solid QB, and while 1.01 isn't a great spot for this, following rounds ended up working out well for this strategy.
1.01 WR Calvin Johnson, DET (26)
I attempted to move out of 1.01 to slide down and still end up with Calvin, but there was very little interest in this spot, and no offer that I gave any serious consideration to. Perhaps two years ago I would have went with AP, but ultimately I didn't have a good feeling about him and wanted a safer pick in this PPR. While this is earlier than Calvin normally goes, I felt this is a safe pick and only a few spots earlier than he would normally go.
2.12 WR Brandon Marshall, MIA (27)
3.01 WR Dwayne Bowe, KCC (27)
My belief was there was unlikely to be any RBs at this spot that I would be willing to move on unless there was a strong run on WRs. Ultimately, there was a pretty fair mix of positions taken and going WR-strong here was easy to decide. In my predraft mock, I had been hoping to pull Marshall and Austin, but Miles went a few picks prior. I was still able to get Marshall, and paired my other WR to Bowe and Mike Williams, ultimately going with a Bowe who I felt, while he won't do what he did last year again in terms of his TD rate, should still be a 75-1000-8 kind of WR and pretty solidly in the top 15. Aside from his 2009 season where he was suspended, he has been very solid with bad teams and should KC regress, I still expect a solid year.
4.12 RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR (27)
5.01 TE Vernon Davis, SFO (27)
Coming up on these picks, I gave serious consideration to going WR-TE or QB-TE, depending on who dropped to me. I was pretty certain that I would be taken Vernon if he fell to this spot, and I had him 2nd on my list of dynasty TEs. Luckily, he was able to fall to me and was an easy pick. For the other spot, I had been hoping for Welker, Ryan Mathews, Holmes, Deangelo, and Romo. Out of these, the only one that fell to me was DeAngelo, making this pick also rather easy. I had briefly considered Brady, but felt there was a slight chance that I could move up into the early-mid 6th to get him if he fell some.
6.07 QB Ben Rothlisberger, PIT (29)
Having seen another owner trade their 5th round pick for a 2012 1st rounder, I immediately sent an offer of my 2012 first round pick for their 6th rounder, which was quickly accepted. I would do this trade 100/100 times, and it ended up being a key to my draft enabling me to get Rothlisberger for my first next year. No brainer for me, as I try to build dynasties to win immediately. The only other consideration I had was to go for Collie here and then Ben/Stafford at the end of the round. Ultimately, I was a bit worried about Ben falling to 6.12, and worried about Staffords health and felt I would need to spend another pick on a backup. Stafford looks spectacular so far, but so has Ben and I know I won't need to move early on a backup with him.
6.12 WR Anquan Boldin, BAL (31)
7.01 RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA (25)
At this point, I am trying to work on my starting lineup, which I expected to be 2rb/4wr for most weeks. I want to go best available WR and RB here, and two guys I had pegged in my predraft mock were still fallling to me--Lynch and Boldin. I had Collie a little ahead of Boldin, but he got picked a few before me. I had Boldin as the last WR in my "safe top-25" WR tier, and felt Lynch would be a good enough #2. Overall, I think I spent about 8 seconds making these two picks.
8.12 RB Joseph Addai, IND (28)
9.01 WR Steve Smith, CAR (33)
Continuing with my plan to get a starting lineup complete, I wanted to once again go RB-WR here. With this starting lineup requirements, we are looking at 8 starting spots between qb-rb-wr-te, and given bye weeks, I really wanted 9-10 strong here before I started taking any "projection" type of players (marginal rookies and unproven players). Ultimately, I feel a lot of these guys are not worth the risk, and I'd much rather take a guy that will help me win immediately then hoping that a guy I pick makes good on his talent. I knew I wanted one of three RBs-- Reggie Bush, Addai, and Fred Jackson. All three guys I project to be right in the 26-32 rb range in a PPR league, and the ability to flex if possible during bye weeks. I was fairly confident in the role of Addai and Bush, but a bit weery on F-Jax as earlier in the day was the report about him being unhappy in his role. Ultimately, Bush and Jackson went before I was on the clock, making the Addai pick rather quickly. For the WR spot, I had it narrowed down to three options--Lance Moore, Steve Smith (CAR), and Jordy Nelson. I had worries about all three guys for various reasons, and eventually went with the veteran in Smith. I don't expect him to hit 1000 yards again, but would be a bit suprised if he didn't end up with 60-800-5 and good for WR5 and Flex player during bye weeks. I had several suggestions that I should have went Delone Carter and securing the Indy RB, but I didn't want to spend a 9th round pick on a guy that I frankly don't believe is very talented, and not likely a long term solution. I felt confident I could find a few scatbacks in the teens that would give me similar numbers to what Delone would have in the event of an injury to Addai.
10.12 TE Brandon Pettigrew, DET (26)
11.01 QB Cam Newton, CAR (22)
At this point, we had a mix of strategies employed by other owners. Some teams taking backup QBs, taking their first TE, and a lot of unproven youth flying off the board. I had two guys targetted in the 10-14 rounds that I really wanted to have on this team--Pettigrew and Cam Newton. On Pettigrew, I feel he is grossly undervalued. 70 receptions, over 700 yards without the franchise QB last year. Brandon has everything you need for great ppr TE fantasy successful -- a great QB, great WR that stretches the field, mediocre but dependable WR2. TDs are hard to predict, and he only had 4 last year. An uptick of just two TDs this year puts him right after the top 5-6 TEs in the league, and an overall improvement in just his 3rd year with the franchise QB back at the helm has him pushing the elite. Clearly, I'm higher on him that others but at this point, he should be good value for his age/production, even if he only finishes around 12th for TEs. I went with Newton as the second pick, and who will ultimately likely be my backup to Ben (and has a average matchup vs Detroit on Ben's bye). I have no illusions of Cam being a strong NFL QB this year, or perhaps ever. I do expect him to push into the 15-20 range on his feet alone. He obviously has a huge floor, but also a big big ceiling with his arm and feet.
12.12 WR Jordy Nelson, GBP (26)
13.01 WR Steve Smith, PHI (26)
Lots of TEs come off the board after I picked, making me feel secure in the fact that I had to have drafted Pettigrew during the last turn or I would have missed him. A great deal of WRs come off the list, and I notice that my 9.01 consideration, Jordy Nelson, continues to plummet. I guess the resigning of James Jones scared some off, but the upside of Jordy was too high for me to pass on, and considering I had him on my short list 4 rounds ago, I instantly took him. I also feel he is a guy that could have some good trade value if he performs well thie year. I had similar thoughts to the other pick, and chose Steve Smith--Philly version. Consider this--while a great deal of WRs were flying off the board, many who had never sniffed 50 receptions or 500 yards, or were rookies and had no likelihood of contributing this year, here is what I got in Smith: a 26 year old possession receiver who has put up over 100 catches in one season, and was on pace again the following year. Having signed only a one-year deal, he is eligible for FA next year and can choose his team. Tons of upside here, in my opinion, assuming he makes it back from his injury.
14.12 RB Jerome Harrison, DET (28)
15.01 QB Tim Tebow, DEN (24)
Similar to Cam, Tebow is a guy that has great potential with his feet, but needs tons of work to be an NFL QB. Continuing my theme of shooting for high upside picks, I am glad to have him on board. With the second pick, I wanted to start to assemble some RB depth and players I felt could be good bargains in the teens. Harrison fit this mold, as a guy that is well-suited for the system in Detroit. Despite moving around a great deal, Jerome has a fair amount of talent. With Best's injury hisotry, he is certainly someone that could get a few starts if things work out. So far, Best is still struggling with injuries, and Harrison has performed decently this preseason, but would likely have some competition for carries .
16.12 RB Darren Sproles, NOS (28)
17.01 D Baltimore Ravens
At this point, several defenses have come off the board, and I don't want to be left with two mediocre squads. The Ravens were the top team on my board at this time. With the second pick, I wanted to get a pass-catching Rb that I could hope for something in a spot start. I generally shy away from drafting RBs like Dion Lewis, Powell, or Johnny White-- guys that I don't believe are talented enough to be bell-cows. Instead of chasing a guy who *might* end up getting enough work to be a part-timer or change-of-pace back, I'd rather just get that person already. I was hoping for Woodhead, but he was well gone at this point and was ok with Sproles. Ingram and Thomas are two guys who both have injury histories, which may provide Sproles to get a few more carries in the event one of them went down. A guy like Darren doesn't need a ton of touches to be flex startable, and I like the insurance with him here. Hopefully I will never have to start him.
18.12 RB Justin Forsett, SEA (25)
19.01 RB Steve Slaton, HOU (25)
I want to get Forsette, as some sort of protection against a Lynch injury. I do really like Leon, and had him in leagues when he was a Jet. I expect him to cut into both Lynch and Forsett, but believe that Forsett would be the more valuable overall back. While I think he would split with Leon, he might be a RB3 if something happened to Lynch. He slid to me and was an easy pick. For a while, it had been speculated that Slaton would be the odd man out in Houston. This is likely the case, the only thing we don't know is where he ends up. Arizona, Tampa, or Indy would be fabulous and well worth the pick. If he ends up in a bad situation, he is an easy cut.
20.12 WR Marcus Easley, BUF (23)
21.01 K Stephen Gostkowski, NEP (27)
I got quite nervous in the 20th, as a guy I had pegged for my last pick, Marcus Easley, had a fantasatic half starting in a preseason game. It caused me to make a move on him earlier than I had planned, and luckily he was able to fall to me. A guy with a ton of talent, if he remains a starter could be a steal here. If he falls down the chart, another easy cut. Sidenote--one thing I like in my flier picks is "cuttability". I'd rather not sit on a guy that is not getting any playing time, as I have no idea his talent level. With Easley, I should know pretty quickly what to do with him. With the second pick, I didn't really have anyone that stood out in the rest of the draft, so I decided to take a kicker that I wouldn't have to worry about in Gostkowski.
22.12 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK (24)
23.01 D Arizona Cardinals
With my final two picks, I wanted to pair the Ravens with another defense, as they had several rough weeks to start the season. The Cardinals have a week schedule overall, and open with the Panthers. DHB is a terp that I loved from his college days, who has obviously been a disappointment. But he is one guy late that has a great amount of upside -- even without the Raiders reaching he would have been a first rounder. Another guy with cuttability that I should know 3-4 weeks into the seaon if he was worth keeping.
Final Roster
QB: Rothlisberger, Newton, Tebow
RB: D Williams, Lynch, Addai, Harrison, Sproles, Forsett, Slaton
WR: C Johnson, Marshall, Bowe, Boldin, S Smith (car), S Smith (phi), Nelson, Easley, Heyward-Bey
TE: Davis, Pettigrew
K: Gostkowski
D: Ravens, Cardinals
Overall, I'm pretty happy with how this draft turned out. The only pick I second guessed at the time was Steve Smith (car) at 9.01, but being able to get Nelson four rounds later eliminated that worry. Seattle offense is scaring me so far in the preseason, so I'm slightly worried about how Lynch will fare, but feel that Addai should be able to hold down RB2 until the bye weeks begin, when I'll have a better idea of what to expect from Marshawn. Health of the RB crew will be a concern-- if the main three stay healthy, I really like my chances this year. Obviously, the WRs are going to carry me and I will likely be starting 4 wide every week. I also feel my TEs will be stronger than most. I think Rothlisberger will be fantastic this year, with a great schedule for him and the Steelers. He should be able to have me middle of the pack in total QB scoring if he remains healthy. The heavy WR strategy is one that I am pretty familiar with and generally works to what I feel is my stronger points-- finding startable quality RBs to suppliment the rest of my lineup.
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