Grading David Carr (1 Viewer)

[chris1969]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

 

[prymetyme25]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Dude honestly as a houston Fan I watch every game and I can honestly tell you without saying that Carr sux that the problem with carr does not show on any stat sheets. He has BAD leadership skills and guys really dont wanna break down any walls for Carr. Great Guy. Capable QB IMO. But when you look in his eyes you just dont see a winner. And Im sure the other 10 guys in that huddle felt the same way. Before you say I am a Carr hater, I used to be a Carr apologist. I was the guy that said:1. he has no one to play with

2. hard to be a good qb on an expansion team

3. Qb has to have atleast 3 seconds to throw the ball.

4. Capers play calling sucks.

5. AJ drops too many passes.

This year I actually took off my Home Team love affair glasses and watched as an scout. It was clear that I was just apologizing and making excuses for him. I love the underdog as much as the next guy (maybe more) but this dog just has no fight. When you watch your qb play you even in losses you should see hope. But when you get down by 10 and you KNOW your gonna lose thats not a good feeling.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

 

[dparker713]

You'll notice that even when you take his best games, his still has a pedestrian 7.27 ypa and a 10.24 ypc. He just would constantly dump off passes - no one feared him.

Also, the team went 2-2 in his 4 best starts, putting up 24, 15, 27, and 14 points in those games. He's just not that good.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Do you fancy cherry picking number explain why Tony Banks had better stats and more wins and Sage Rosenfels had better stats as well? Do you stats explain how Carr didn't like to be at the practice field and left as soon as possible? Do they take into account how after they lost to Cinnicati and scoring only 10 points (after firing OC Palmer) that he was really impressed by their improvement? That he had basically accepted losing? Because if they don't, the Carr skeptics aren't going anywhere.

 

[prymetyme25]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Do you fancy cherry picking number explain why Tony Banks had better stats and more wins and Sage Rosenfels had better stats as well? Do you stats explain how Carr didn't like to be at the practice field and left as soon as possible? Do they take into account how after they lost to Cinnicati and scoring only 10 points (after firing OC Palmer) that he was really impressed by their improvement? That he had basically accepted losing? Because if they don't, the Carr skeptics aren't going anywhere.

thats why people in Houston aren't mad about him being cut. People outside looking in have been lead to believe that Carr would be good if he had a decent O-line and that is just not the truth. Honestly I would rather have Boller than Carr. Atleast when he gets down and dumped on he atleast tries to fight back.

 

[Banger]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Wow, you mean QB's tend to put up good numbers against bad defenses? Interesting. So all he needs to do is play bad defenses each week and he's golden!! Good stuff.

 

[Nate]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

If David Carr gets to pick his competition according the pass rush pressure then he'll do exceptionally well if he decides to only play against weak pass rushing teams. The problem is that the rest of the NFL will not comply with David's request and he'll have to square off against all NFL pass rushes including teams who can apply pressure which David does not handle well at all. But the stats fail to see the underlying issues with David Carr which are well chronicled even by some former/present backers of Carr, his lack of leadership/dedication/maturity to succeed.http://blogs.chron.com/nfl/2006/10/could_d...at_a_cross.html

... The NFL people say Carr has poor pocket presense and doesn't know how to anticipate the rush and avoid it until he can find a receiver. They say he's plays like he expects to get hit, which isn't a surprise considering how many times he was hit during his first four seasons. They say because of his poor pocket presence, he'll often step right into a pass rusher.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports...ez/4591907.html

... Carr's legacy here will be that of one player single-handedly crippling an entire organization.

... can they make the toughest decision of all and sever ties with the albatross that is Carr?

... In a parting shot, Moulds spoke Wednesday about what he felt limited this team's chances to succeed last season. The Texans won six games in 2006. Two more wins would have had the club on the brink of the playoffs.

Moulds said it was Carr who hindered the team's chances, saying that at some point "the quarterback has to show that he can carry (the team)."

... But big change only comes with exactly that. Big change. All the little moves won't mean a thing unless the front office gets some blood on its hands and rids itself of the albatross. Sad, but true.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports...nt/4659070.html

... Why did things go so terribly wrong for Carr? It's possible the answer is simple. The "good kid" who was supposed to have had it all might have lacked the most essential things — the sufficient talent and an all-consuming passion to succeed in the NFL.

From the moment the Texans ordained him as their cornerstone, there was clucking about his three-quarter-arm throwing motion (Vikings coach Brad Childress was harping about it as recently as last week) and other mechanical flaws. Then, as the seasons passed, questions arose about his leadership skills, maturity and dedication.

That he appeared to lean more on his family, particularly his doting, omnipresent father, than his brothers-in-arms perhaps should have raised more red flags than it did.

"Leadership is the most important thing in the world," Pastorini said. "The quarterback has to go out of his way to build camaraderie with his teammates. He has to make an effort, to sacrifice, to find out what they want and what they need. The quarterback has to spend time with them after practice in the regular season and after practice in training camp. He's got to know that when he steps into the huddle there are 11 minds thinking the same thing."

Although Carr's former teammates have been hesitant to criticize him publicly for lacking a take-charge mentality, it is widely known he didn't reach out to them as much, or as often, as he should have. He never, for example, forged the kind of bond Pastorini shared with crusty center Carl Mauck.

Further, those who observed Carr in social settings were occasionally surprised by his unworldly behavior. After following Carr for a few holes at a celebrity golf tournament, a prominent local doctor who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject said: "He acted like a teenager. It was hard for me to picture him in a huddle, trying to lead an NFL team."

... "I've got some sympathy for the fact that he had to begin his career with an expansion franchise," said Oliver Luck, once Moon's backup with the Oilers. "It's tough to start out as the top draft choice for an expansion team. He wasn't surrounded by great talent, and I think the Texans would admit that. But, quite honestly, I don't have much sympathy for David because he didn't show what a first-round pick needs to show.

"If you see signs of a guy getting better year to year that's one thing. But he didn't. In some games, yes, he looked like a legitimate NFL quarterback. But he didn't do it in enough games. Most quarterbacks find certain things — special plays, a particular receiver — to fall back on when they need to. David never really established any of that."

Luck, the president of the Major League Soccer champion Dynamo, suggested Carr's college statistics and, hence, reputation could have been skewed by the caliber of the competition he faced at Fresno State.

"It's a hard thing to do as a scout, to decide if a quarterback, coming from a smaller school, has what it takes to move up to play in the NFL," Luck said. "It's the most difficult position to evaluate because so much more than physical skills are involved. So much of it is mental. It's also about how much time a guy is willing to invest, how much homework he'll do. Is he willing to watch film all night long? Does he have the leadership skills an NFL quarterback needs?

"At the end of the day, David just didn't show enough in all the areas for Gary (Kubiak) to have justified hitching his wagon to him."

... Carr got sacked so much and (the Texans) committed so many blunders that he just didn't get any better," Moon said. "Watching him last season you could tell he's lost a lot of confidence."

 

[Yitbos69]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

I think the the correlation that Chris1969 is trying to make is that if his O-line gives him time(like they were able to do against teams with a poor pass rush) he was successful. So if you were to put him on a team with a good pass protect O-line he could be successful.The only way we will find out is if he is put in another situation with a good O-line and we can see if he sinks or swims.

 

[prymetyme25]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

I think the the correlation that Chris1969 is trying to make is that if his O-line gives him time(like they were able to do against teams with a poor pass rush) he was successful. So if you were to put him on a team with a good pass protect O-line he could be successful.The only way we will find out is if he is put in another situation with a good O-line and we can see if he sinks or swims.

read post number 2 please.

 

[FavreCo]

You'll notice that even when you take his best games, his still has a pedestrian 7.27 ypa and a 10.24 ypc. He just would constantly dump off passes - no one feared him.

Also, the team went 2-2 in his 4 best starts, putting up 24, 15, 27, and 14 points in those games. He's just not that good.

Mr. Dumpoff has a sweet gig going. He has fooled the majority into thinking he is some sort of super accurate QB. Those in the know, who have seen him in action know better.

 

[Yitbos69]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

I think the the correlation that Chris1969 is trying to make is that if his O-line gives him time(like they were able to do against teams with a poor pass rush) he was successful. So if you were to put him on a team with a good pass protect O-line he could be successful.The only way we will find out is if he is put in another situation with a good O-line and we can see if he sinks or swims.

read post number 2 please.

Ok.......now what?

 

[Nate]

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

I think the the correlation that Chris1969 is trying to make is that if his O-line gives him time(like they were able to do against teams with a poor pass rush) he was successful. So if you were to put him on a team with a good pass protect O-line he could be successful.The only way we will find out is if he is put in another situation with a good O-line and we can see if he sinks or swims.

Oh I understand the point the OP is trying to make. I just hardly think it will quiet the "Carr sux" threads because this correlation should exist with any passer in the league. A QB that isn't hurried and/or running for his life to the sidelines is probably going to have a better QB rating at the end of the game.In fact I think this data does just as much to strengthen one of the main counterpoints against Carr. That is his apparent inability to toss the ball downfield. As someone else pointed out, his YPC and YPA aren't especially good even in the games where he shouldn't have been hurried as much.

 

[Yitbos69]

Congratulations. You've proved to me without a doubt that QBs fare better against poor pass rushing than good pass rushing.

I think the the correlation that Chris1969 is trying to make is that if his O-line gives him time(like they were able to do against teams with a poor pass rush) he was successful. So if you were to put him on a team with a good pass protect O-line he could be successful.The only way we will find out is if he is put in another situation with a good O-line and we can see if he sinks or swims.

Oh I understand the point the OP is trying to make. I just hardly think it will quiet the "Carr sux" threads because this correlation should exist with any passer in the league. A QB that isn't hurried and/or running for his life to the sidelines is probably going to have a better QB rating at the end of the game.In fact I think this data does just as much to strengthen one of the main counterpoints against Carr. That is his apparent inability to toss the ball downfield. As someone else pointed out, his YPC and YPA aren't especially good even in the games where he shouldn't have been hurried as much.

I still would like to see him get the opportunity to prove he is (or is not) a good NFL QB with another team where the O-line is not a ?

 

[BusMan]

Anyone else hear that he's thinking of retiring? I heard something about it on Fox Sports radio yesteryday.

 

[FavreCo]

Not a surprise. That is what someone does when they know they are not any good. If he goes to another team, he will just be exposed to all you carr lovers as the fraud that he is. If he were to retire with the $8 million he stole in March 2006, he would forever be called a good QB that was hindered by the rest of the team's ineptitude....which of course is totally backward to reality.

 

[KING]

1st, i'd like to add the QB rating for that sample above is 104.1, not 129. not that it's a big deal, but get the facts straight.

i think carr reminds me alot of couch. i think both lacked leadership. both were thrown into the fire with expansion teams, behind poor lines.

they also had trouble living up to the expectations of being #1 overall picks.

 

[chris1969]

Thanks for all the comments guys. I'm really not in love with the guy myself, but I was trying to answer that 1 question. "What if he actually had time to throw the ball?" As far as YPA goes, it doesn't take a high YPA to move the chains. His mechanics could be a result of not having time to throw, but old habits are hard to break and that could be a huge concern for his new team. Also confidence, maturity and leadership issues would be a red flag as well. He may never be a franchise QB, but I think that if you put him on the right team, he could preform well. If I were a team like Chicago. I'd be taking a long hard look at him as Grossman insurance.

 

[chris1969]

1st, i'd like to add the QB rating for that sample above is 104.1, not 129. not that it's a big deal, but get the facts straight.i think carr reminds me alot of couch. i think both lacked leadership. both were thrown into the fire with expansion teams, behind poor lines.they also had trouble living up to the expectations of being #1 overall picks.

I rechecked my math and got 129.1666666666666666666666666666666 are you rounding any numbers? I took each calculation to 3 decimal places before adding the numbers

 

[KING]

i thought 129 looked high, so i used the rating tool here on site, and thats where i got the 104.1

 

[Synthesizer]

Quick breakdown of Carr's career.......

1. him and the team play pretty poorly

2. make excuses for him

3. make more excuses for him

4. even more excuses for him

5. team cuts him

6. will probably be a servicable backup but just doesn't have the leadership skills to be a starter in the nfl

oh wait, I forgot if I was talking about Carr or Harrington.

 

[chris1969]

I just got 104.1 with the rating calculator too. I must have a flaw in my figures.

 

[FavreCo]

Quick breakdown of Carr's career....... 1. him and the team play pretty poorly2. make excuses for him3. make more excuses for him4. even more excuses for him5. team cuts him6. will probably be a servicable backup but just doesn't have the leadership skills to be a starter in the nfloh wait, I forgot if I was talking about Carr or Harrington.

Very consise and right to the point...on both.

 

[prymetyme25]

Quick breakdown of Carr's career....... 1. him and the team play pretty poorly2. make excuses for him3. make more excuses for him4. even more excuses for him5. team cuts him6. will probably be a servicable backup but just doesn't have the leadership skills to be a starter in the nfloh wait, I forgot if I was talking about Carr or Harrington.

Very consise and right to the point...on both.

that draft has to be the worst qb draft ever

 

[nygiants56]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.Carr is another first round flop, like nearly every other QB picked in the top 5 over the past ,oh, 15 years or so.Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Browning Nagle, Tim Couch, Rogers (gb - looks like a bust ), Harrington, Leaf, you might be able to add Eli to that list someday, too. sure, guys like Peyton Manning / Carson Palmer were drafted early, but it seems that there are far more losers coming out of the first 5 picks, than winners, at least over the past 15 years.you'd have to think twice, as an NFL GM, before you decide to take a QB with a top 5 pick. The money you pay is scarcely recovered at the QB position. it seems like a lousy investment, with WAY too much risk.

 

[Nate]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.Carr is another first round flop, like nearly every other QB picked in the top 5 over the past ,oh, 15 years or so.Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Browning Nagle, Tim Couch, Rogers (gb - looks like a bust ), Harrington, Leaf, you might be able to add Eli to that list someday, too. sure, guys like Peyton Manning / Carson Palmer were drafted early, but it seems that there are far more losers coming out of the first 5 picks, than winners, at least over the past 15 years.you'd have to think twice, as an NFL GM, before you decide to take a QB with a top 5 pick. The money you pay is scarcely recovered at the QB position. it seems like a lousy investment, with WAY too much risk.

I think that says more about the expectations on a top 5 pick than anything else. A QB taken in the top 5 is probably filling an immediate need in the drafting team, and is less likely to sit and learn the system for a few seasons.Rivers, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Peyton, McNair, Collins, Bledsoe were all top 5 picks. I don't think the correlation is as strong as it seems.Carr spent a couple seasons on his ### and a couple seasons worrying about being put on his ###. It will be interesting what he does with a fresh start. I'm not ready to write him off just yet but I also don't think its as simple as putting a real OL in front of him and *poof* we have a superstar QB.

 

[massraider]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

Carr is another first round flop, like nearly every other QB picked in the top 5 over the past ,oh, 15 years or so.

You are incorrect. Top 5 QB's taken in the past 15 years: YoungAlex SmithManning RiversPalmerCarrHarringtonVickCouchMcNabbA. SmithManning LeafMcNairCollinsShulerBledsoeMirerIf you extend this to include top 15 QBs, the success rate increases. I see 7 flops, out of 15. 8 if you count Collins (Mirer, Shuler, Leaf, Smith, Couch, Harrington, Carr).The hit rate is better than 50%.

 

[Bull Dozier]

Ok, I thought a lot about Carr as a FA and the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to apply a little math and objectivity. The biggest debate on this board seems to be "Is it him, or the OL?" So I decided to put it to the test. I figured if we take the OL out of the picture, we could get a better grade on the QB. This doesn't take into account a bad running game or a bad Def or bad special teams. It's just answering that 1 specific question. First I posted for other people to come up with the grade for the worst pass rushing teams. I wanted to show QB rating when pass rush is not a huge threat. I was hoping to get 3 or 4 games against the bottom 5 pass rushing teams. Thanks to Chase, the grading system is posted here. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=310831

The only games against the bottom 5 were against Wash and CLE, so I had to expand the scope. The next worst pass rushing team happened to the super bowl champs at 9th worst. I was gonna adjust against SOS like Chase suggested, but once I saw Indy as one of the teams against, and since they played 2 games, it was half the games against, so I figured that half the games against the Super-Bowl champs negates the math I would have to do. If you really want to disagree, I suggest you check out SOS.

What I decided to do was go QB rating against teams that can't pressure the QB. I looked at those 4 games.

| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 2 ind | 22 26 219 3 0 | 3 10 0 || 3 was | 19 29 208 2 1 | 3 3 0 || 16 ind | 16 23 163 1 0 | 2 14 0 || 17 cle | 9 15 86 0 1 | 5 -8 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL 66 93 676 6 2 13 19 0I figured the QB rating in those 4 games and it works out to be 129.17.Pretty exceptional in my opinion. Enough to quiet the "Carr sucks" threads I think.

I get where you are trying to go with this, but the QB rating increase for these four games doesn't tell us anything unless we know the average QB rating against these four teams, and the average QB rating overall, or, more precisely, the QB rating against these teams compared to those same player's overall QB rating. Without that comparable information, this tells us nothing.For instance, even if Carr had a 104.1 rating in these four games, does that mean much if the QB rating against these four teams was 110?

 

[nittanylion]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

Carr is another first round flop, like nearly every other QB picked in the top 5 over the past ,oh, 15 years or so.

You are incorrect. Top 5 QB's taken in the past 15 years: YoungAlex SmithManning RiversPalmerCarrHarringtonVickCouchMcNabbA. SmithManning LeafMcNairCollinsShulerBledsoeMirerIf you extend this to include top 15 QBs, the success rate increases. I see 7 flops, out of 15. 8 if you count Collins (Mirer, Shuler, Leaf, Smith, Couch, Harrington, Carr).The hit rate is better than 50%.

" 8 if you count Collins " ?That's an interesting comment, especially when the first sample includes Eli Manning, and Eli is being sub-categorized in the group that includes Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Drew Bledsoe...Now, I'm NOT saying Collins belongs in the 'boom' category, but, heck, if we're lumping in Kerry Collins with the 'busts' group, one could argueably put Mike Vick (the QB, not the athelete/football player) in that category as well, especially in comparison to the likes of Young, PManning, et al...The jury is still out - WAY OUT, on Eli Manning - and Alex Smith and David Rivers, too, for that matter. (As an aside, it's my opinion that, of the three, Rivers has the best chance of developing into a 'boom' category QB, but that's probably for another thread.)I'm not touting Kerry Collins as anything remotely close to a SuperStar, but Eli has a lot of work ahead of him to do in the Big Apple before his statistical career can even be mentioned in the same breath as what Collins accrued while QB'ing the G-Men...In the interest of no one mis-construing my point, my commentary here has more to do with who is being included in the 'boom' category than with Collins being left out.I counted 18 QB's on that list, and in my opinion, there are only six careers which have lived up to draft position (Manning, Young, Palmer, McNabb, McNair, Bledsoe), with another 5 who fall, at best, in the 'TBD' Category (Rivers, Alex Smith, EManning, Vick...and David Carr)Although a preponderance of evidence, and opinion, seems to be in favor of Carr turning out a 'bust', the fact remains that we have yet to see him QB for a team with a capable pass blocking offensive line, a running game that's enough of a threat to keep defenses honest, and a defense that's capable of containing an opposing offense with any sort of regularity - when you consider he's spent 5 years on the same team, with all that going against him, well, I hate to say it, but it makes the Texans look pretty pathetic, and doesn't really excite me about Schaub's prospects in '07.If there's even remotely one slim ray of hope for David Carr to shine, it might reside in the career of Steve Young. Not that I'm comparing the two players, but rather, the situations. IMO, if we're ever going to see the 'flashes' develop any consistency, we need to see him on a better overall team, with an older, mature, quality veteran QB, where he can take a year off to decompress, regroup, whatever, and under quality tutelage, hit the field in '08 or later, with a more complete overall team around him. Of course, that's going to require plenty of stars to align - most notably, he has to be willing to accept a short-term backup role - and that's asking a lot on the maturity end of any young man - and it would probably require him to sign with the Green Bay Packers as well, which is probably the situation that best suits what he needs at this point in his career.I'd have to say that, at this time, the outlook is unfavorable that either of these events is likely...

 

[massraider]

I have a feeling that in the right situation with a fresh start he may end up being a serviceable QB.

Carr is another first round flop, like nearly every other QB picked in the top 5 over the past ,oh, 15 years or so.

You are incorrect. Top 5 QB's taken in the past 15 years: Young

Alex Smith

Manning

Rivers

Palmer

Carr

Harrington

Vick

Couch

McNabb

A. Smith

Manning

Leaf

McNair

Collins

Shuler

Bledsoe

Mirer

If you extend this to include top 15 QBs, the success rate increases. I see 7 flops, out of 15. 8 if you count Collins (Mirer, Shuler, Leaf, Smith, Couch, Harrington, Carr).

The hit rate is better than 50%.

" 8 if you count Collins " ?That's an interesting comment, especially when the first sample includes Eli Manning, and Eli is being sub-categorized in the group that includes Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Drew Bledsoe...Now, I'm NOT saying Collins belongs in the 'boom' category, but, heck, if we're lumping in Kerry Collins with the 'busts' group, one could argueably put Mike Vick (the QB, not the athelete/football player) in that category as well, especially in comparison to the likes of Young, PManning, et al...

The jury is still out - WAY OUT, on Eli Manning - and Alex Smith and David Rivers, too, for that matter. (As an aside, it's my opinion that, of the three, Rivers has the best chance of developing into a 'boom' category QB, but that's probably for another thread.)

I'm not touting Kerry Collins as anything remotely close to a SuperStar, but Eli has a lot of work ahead of him to do in the Big Apple before his statistical career can even be mentioned in the same breath as what Collins accrued while QB'ing the G-Men...

In the interest of no one mis-construing my point, my commentary here has more to do with who is being included in the 'boom' category than with Collins being left out.

I counted 18 QB's on that list, and in my opinion, there are only six careers which have lived up to draft position (Manning, Young, Palmer, McNabb, McNair, Bledsoe), with another 5 who fall, at best, in the 'TBD' Category (Rivers, Alex Smith, EManning, Vick...and David Carr)

Although a preponderance of evidence, and opinion, seems to be in favor of Carr turning out a 'bust', the fact remains that we have yet to see him QB for a team with a capable pass blocking offensive line, a running game that's enough of a threat to keep defenses honest, and a defense that's capable of containing an opposing offense with any sort of regularity - when you consider he's spent 5 years on the same team, with all that going against him, well, I hate to say it, but it makes the Texans look pretty pathetic, and doesn't really excite me about Schaub's prospects in '07.

If there's even remotely one slim ray of hope for David Carr to shine, it might reside in the career of Steve Young. Not that I'm comparing the two players, but rather, the situations. IMO, if we're ever going to see the 'flashes' develop any consistency, we need to see him on a better overall team, with an older, mature, quality veteran QB, where he can take a year off to decompress, regroup, whatever, and under quality tutelage, hit the field in '08 or later, with a more complete overall team around him. Of course, that's going to require plenty of stars to align - most notably, he has to be willing to accept a short-term backup role - and that's asking a lot on the maturity end of any young man - and it would probably require him to sign with the Green Bay Packers as well, which is probably the situation that best suits what he needs at this point in his career.

I'd have to say that, at this time, the outlook is unfavorable that either of these events is likely...

I should have turned it around and said the 'flop' rate was less than 50%. The previous posters premise was that nearly every other QB taken in the first 5 picks over the past decade and a half was a flop.

You can argue Kerry Collins, but I am sure the Panthers, the team that drafted him, aren't happy with his Panther career. Nonetheless, he carved out a decnt career, won some games, played in some playoff games, etc. It's worth arguing on both sides.

And I agree, the jury is out on some of these guys. So they can't be labeled as flops.

Here's my thing: If one wants to make the argument that a top pick is a mistake to use on a QB, then just pointing out flops is a bad argument, unless there's some data to show that several other positions are a much safer bet. I'm sure O-line is a better bet, but taking a quick look at drafthistory.com:

Top 10 draft picks over the last 15 years:

WR:

Braylon Edwards

Troy Williamson

Mike Williams

Larry Fitzgerald

Roy Williams

Reggie Williams

Charles Rogers

Andre Johnson

David Terrell

Koren Robinson

Peter Warrick

Plaxico Burress

Travis Taylor

Torry Holt

Ike Hilliard

David Boston

Keyshawn Johnson

Terry Glenn

Michael Westbrook

Joey Galloway

JJ Stokes

Curtis Conway

Desmond Howard

Now, the guys in bold were hits, although one could argue I am being generous with Keyshawn and Glenn. They certainly didn't turn out the way the drafting team would have liked.

Giving incompletes to the most recent 3, this position is signifcantly more dangerous to use a top 10 pick on. And if you hit on a QB, the impact is tremendously greater, I don't really think that's debatable.