Hardest year EVER for me to decide on draft plan (1 Viewer)

[tsarc888]

I don't know what it is guys but I cannot for the life of me, nail down a general draft plan that I'm comfortable with this year. I've spent countless hours and run hundreds of scenarios. Nothing inspires confidence. In my big $$ league, over 16 years, I'm #1 in average points so while I certainly don't win every year, I obviously have somewhat of a clue. This year, I'm lost.

I may just turn over the decision the wisdom of the Draft Dominator and follow whatever picks it suggests as the draft unfolds. In the past, I've just used it as as reference but strayed considerably to my own picks with success.

Is anyone else having as much trouble as I am getting a grip on this season?

Has anyone else ever given blind faith to the DD in a big $$ league?

thanks for your advice

 

[joffer]

How big $$? We talkin like more than $20?

 

[tsarc888]

How big $$? We talkin like more than $20?

$500

 

[RavenLunatic]

I do know what you mean but in most league I have been happy going RB heavy, Then WR and then QB followed by TEs.

Depends on your draft slot but you will be weak somewhere so why not choose the area easiest to catchup in.

Usually there has always been a RB I wanted more than one of the top two TEs. And others take away the Rodgers, Brady or Calvin dilemma from the equation typically where I have has the choice to draft.

 

[ponchsox]

DD comes in handy when you can adjust the rankings for your leagues scoring settings. I ended up just printing the rankings out instead of messing around with inputting all the picks into DD.

 

[Zeff]

I do know what you mean but in most league I have been happy going RB heavy, Then WR and then QB followed by TEs.

Yup.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think the DD will serve you better than listening to anyone or anything that says something along the lines of "Draft X, then X, then X, etcetera".

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Every draft this year has been so different. I have never seen such a wide variance. For example

Peyton Manning - 6.3 / 7.8 / 8.11

not just manning with the qbs used him as an example another is schaub

13.4 / 8.9 / 7.7

The other positions are similar in nature.

After doing these drafts my general plan is rb/wr, rb/wr, wr/rb, wr/rb, wr/rb, qb, and then te somewhere. I think TE has value slip the most. Then again I like Celek - Cook - Olsen; if I miss out on of the top 9.

Saying that of course in my current draft - I took Rodgers at 8 so there goes that plan.

 

[kutta]

Don't just use DD. I would do almost the opposite. Draft guys you like and draft for value throughout the draft.

I rarely take a QB in the first round, but this year out of the 10 spot I took Stafford. I am a Lions fan (Cards first though...) and love watching Stafford play. I didn't like the other guys there, so I figured what the heck.

Pick out some guys you like and don't worry so much about positions until rounds 5-7. At least that way you have some emotional investment in the team.

 

[Gr00vus]

I've been drawing spots at the end of the 1st round for my drafts so far. While everyone else is saying you should be safe with your 1st rounder (you can't win it, but you can lose it, blah blah blah), I've been going the other way - all risk all the time. If it works out, I should have a pretty screaming team. If not (which is the more likely outcome), bring on the Lakers season opener. Just seems like if you play it safe in the back half of the 1st round, you're on your way to a pretty mediocre team.

 

[SonnyD]

This is just my personal opinion, but I think this year more so than others, you have to grab an upper tier RB with one of your first two picks. Having said that, I'm a firm believer in letting draft runs dictate how you should draft. However in terms of building a "safer" team so to speak, one in which you can add to later on in the season more easily, it's imperative to have at least one higher tier RB.

At least this year, here's the way I see it in terms of what I'd feel comfortable going with in terms of risk for my first 2 round picks:

RB/WR, QB/RB, RB/TE or RB/RB.

There's no way I'd go either QB/WR, QB/TE or WR/WR to start off a draft. Simply too much risk there for my liking. Again, I think it's imperative to minimize your risk. Not that grabbing a RB outside of the top 3 studs eliminates the risk, because all of them certainly have some questions surrounding them, but overall I think you're safer going with one of them and then filling out the rest of your roster later on. The only way I can see not drafting a RB with one of your 1st two picks is if you're picking 1-5 (as guys like Bradshaw should be there as your RB1 in the early part of round 3). Problem with that is you'll be passing on guys like Foster, McCoy and Rice. Can't see anyone really doing that.

Probably doesn't help you much in terms of who to target, but at least those are my feelings on how I see positions shaking out this year.

 

[geoff8695]

An awful lot depends upon roster size/starting lineups/scoring system.

Auction/snake draft/what spot you draft out of/etc.

Watcha got?

 

[prgromek]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.

Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WR

Draft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WR

Draft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RB

Draft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WR

Draft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TE

Draft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

 

[SonnyD]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

As someone mentioned above, a lot depends on starting lineups and scoring systems. Regardless, with so much depth at WR this year I just don't see this strategy working out in the long run. Without seeing your actual rosters, I would venture to say you'll have to hit on your later round RB's to have a shot.

 

[The Jerk]

Just seems like if you play it safe in the back half of the 1st round, you're on your way to a pretty mediocre team.

100% agree, but even so, it's unclear which direction to turn.A lot depends on league details, but I can see myself going almost any combination with my first two picks, and actually, it's fun to be able to go so many different ways; certainly beats the old RB death march through most of the first two rounds:RB and WR -- would be my most typical approachWR and TE -- never thought I would seriously consider a TE this early, but all of you know whyWR and QB -- for leagues with premiums placed on QBsQB and TE -- never, EVER thought this would happen, but things change fast...Probably don't see a RB/TE, RB/QB, RB/RB or WR/WR start, mostly due to my league tendencies...And of course, this doesn't even take into consideration individual player choices.But I'm definitely not worried about making a safe pick. All a safe pick around the 1st/2nd turn means to me is basically conceding large advantages to at least half the league through the first two rounds. I'd rather take the risk and fall flat than just accept mediocrity.

 

[Gr00vus]

Just seems like if you play it safe in the back half of the 1st round, you're on your way to a pretty mediocre team.

100% agree, but even so, it's unclear which direction to turn.

I'm not saying mine is the only way, but I hammered RBs for my 1st 3 picks. I just decided who I thought had the most upside that probably wouldn't be there when the draft came back to me and took them - regardless of their question marks. There are so many opportunities and so much (seeming) depth at WR and QB I didn't worry about them until later. And I didn't quit drafting RBs - kept right on drafting them throughout the rest of the draft when it seemed auspicious - so on 17/18 roster spot teams, I ended up with 7 RBs in each league. I wouldn't have hesitated to do 4 RBs to lead off the draft if the right guys were falling. Might even have considered 5 in a row if there was a guy sitting there who I really liked. Keep in mind, it's a start 2 RB plus a flex situation I've been dealing with. When the draft was over, there were still WRs and QBs undrafted that I would have like to have had, but the running back leftovers were pure indigestible gristle, so I feel vindicated - even if I didn't gamble on the right RBs.

But I'm definitely not worried about making a safe pick. All a safe pick around the 1st/2nd turn means to me is basically conceding large advantages to at least half the league through the first two rounds. I'd rather take the risk and fall flat than just accept mediocrity.

 

[meatwad1]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

As someone mentioned above, a lot depends on starting lineups and scoring systems. Regardless, with so much depth at WR this year I just don't see this strategy working out in the long run. Without seeing your actual rosters, I would venture to say you'll have to hit on your later round RB's to have a shot.

Well..by the same logic, going rb/rb/qb means you are needing to hit big on a middling wr and will not even sniff a top 10 te, let alone an elite one.

 

[Teef]

This is a good thing.

Just relax, let the draft come to you and take BPA. (I know it's redundant and cliche around here, but it works.)

 

[SonnyD]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

As someone mentioned above, a lot depends on starting lineups and scoring systems. Regardless, with so much depth at WR this year I just don't see this strategy working out in the long run. Without seeing your actual rosters, I would venture to say you'll have to hit on your later round RB's to have a shot.

Well..by the same logic, going rb/rb/qb means you are needing to hit big on a middling wr and will not even sniff a top 10 te, let alone an elite one.

I don't really see it that way because WR 5-15 or so is much closer in overall value than RB 5-15. That and the fact that WR has historically been the most inconsistent with the most variance.

 

[Tchula]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

Out of curiosity, which of these are you happiest with?

 

[BobbyLayne]

To me this year, moreso than in years past, you have to let the draft come to you. There is much less consensus on who the real Tier 2 WRs are - it's Meagtron in his own Tier 1 and 8-10 who could almost go in any order. Same thing at other positions. It's G/G in the Tier 1 TE and 3-5 in Tier 2, any order depending on the league. Big 3 RBs and then the next 6-8 could go anywhere in the next 17-20 picks.

I agree it is harder (or rather, less clear cut consensus), but if you are flexiblle and adapt, you're zigging when everyone is zagging. Instead of getting caught reaching during a run, find the value at other positions that people are letting fall.

 

[meatwad1]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

As someone mentioned above, a lot depends on starting lineups and scoring systems. Regardless, with so much depth at WR this year I just don't see this strategy working out in the long run. Without seeing your actual rosters, I would venture to say you'll have to hit on your later round RB's to have a shot.

Well..by the same logic, going rb/rb/qb means you are needing to hit big on a middling wr and will not even sniff a top 10 te, let alone an elite one.

I don't really see it that way because WR 5-15 or so is much closer in overall value than RB 5-15. That and the fact that WR has historically been the most inconsistent with the most variance.

The variance extends throughout the whole draft....I waited last year at wr and spent the whole year trying to find an acceptable starter.

 

[SonnyD]

I have done 6 high-stakes drafts (FFPC) and I didn't take a RB in the first 4 rounds once.Draft 1 : TE-QB-WR-WR-WR-WRDraft 2 : TE-TE-WR-QB-RB-WRDraft 3 : QB-WR-WR-WR-TE-RBDraft 4 : WR-WR-WR-QB-TE-WRDraft 5 : WR-WR-WR-WR-RB-TEDraft 6 : TE-TE-WR-WR-RB-RB

As someone mentioned above, a lot depends on starting lineups and scoring systems. Regardless, with so much depth at WR this year I just don't see this strategy working out in the long run. Without seeing your actual rosters, I would venture to say you'll have to hit on your later round RB's to have a shot.

Well..by the same logic, going rb/rb/qb means you are needing to hit big on a middling wr and will not even sniff a top 10 te, let alone an elite one.

I don't really see it that way because WR 5-15 or so is much closer in overall value than RB 5-15. That and the fact that WR has historically been the most inconsistent with the most variance.

The variance extends throughout the whole draft....I waited last year at wr and spent the whole year trying to find an acceptable starter.

Not saying that can't happen because it certainly can. But I think overall percentages would say you're better off looking for WR later than you are a RB.

 

[dollarbill13]

I think Draft Dominator is less relevant than usual this year due to the high degree of variability in each draft. The most important thing is to figure out how your draft is unfolding and draft accordingly. In the majority of drafts I've done, I find a start with RB-WR-WR, assuming you can get a top 6-ish RB. After that they seem like a crapshoot. WRs are very deep this year, but IMO, if you can get 2-3 "WR1's" in the first three rounds, you'll have a pretty big advantage over someone who grabs a "WR2" in round 5. However, that is just what has been typical in most of my leagues. I've been in some where I've started with 3 RBs because the WRs are flying off the board while guys like Charles & Forte are available in the mid-late 2nd. There's just so much variation this year, it's crazy.