Harrington or Culpepper? (1 Viewer)

[CrossEyed]

So given what we've seen in the pre-season, which QB has a better shot at turning his career around? If you're looking for a QB3 on your roster, which one of these guys is your pick?

 

[DWidmar]

So given what we've seen in the pre-season, which QB has a better shot at turning his career around? If you're looking for a QB3 on your roster, which one of these guys is your pick?

I am probably in the minority here but I actually like both guys to turn it around. There are not many people on these boards who give Harrington any chance. If I had to draft one of the two players I would take Culpepper. I think his ceiling is much higher than that of Harrington and he is one of the top QB's in the game when he is 100%.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Harrington is pretty awful. I expect him to have one of the worst QB ratings in the league, again. The only thing is the Falcons might have to throw the ball about 600 times this year, so he'll probably have some valuable fantasy games.

 

[3C's]

So given what we've seen in the pre-season, which QB has a better shot at turning his career around? If you're looking for a QB3 on your roster, which one of these guys is your pick?

I am probably in the minority here but I actually like both guys to turn it around. There are not many people on these boards who give Harrington any chance. If I had to draft one of the two players I would take Culpepper. I think his ceiling is much higher than that of Harrington and he is one of the top QB's in the game when he is 100%.

 

[CEO of the Barefoots]

I would go with Culpepper here. I would always go with the greater risk/reward player when filling out the roster.

This is clearly Culpepper. I have a hard time considering what the Raiders did last year to even be football. Totally mismatched Coaching staff.

New attitude and new players would not surprise me to see this turn around quicker than most abysmal situations.

 

[Brides Maids]

Devil or the deep blue sea!!

 

[CrossEyed]

So nobody's concerned about CPepp losing snaps to McCown or eventually Russell? Harrington basically has no competition for the job.

 

[Pocket Joker]

Culpepper. I know I'm probably crazy, but there's a reason he only wanted a 1-year deal. He's FINALLY healthy, and should be able to show flashes of 2000-2004.

 

[D_House]

Culpepper. They both represent low risk, since you should be able to get them late in any draft, but Culpepper presents the higher potential reward.

 

[BroadwayG]

We don't want Joey to turn his career around, the rear view mirror doesn't contain much happiness. If you're looking for bye week filler, I'd go Harrington. If you're trying to hit a jackpot, I'd go Culpepper.

 

[wraith5]

If you're looking for bye week filler, I'd go Harrington. If you're trying to hit a jackpot, I'd go Culpepper.

Since we're talking about QB3, you're looking for a guy who has the potential to do something big, not just take up bench space behind your primary backup QB. Harrington isn't that guy. C-Pep could be. If we were talking about QB2, I'd go with Harrington, 'cause at least you know he'll be playing.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I can't believe I am about to type this... Harrington is the safer pick. He has virtually no competition and will only be replaced if he is injured. Daunte only needs one poor outing to give McCown a shot. ATL may say they want to be a ground prounding team, but you just can't do that when you are down by 28 points. People may forget that Joey averaged 35 attempts per game last year in his 11 games. Atlanta is not a great defensive team like they were a few years ago, so I see Joey padding his FF stats in ATL in 2007. Do I think he'll be a top-10 QB? No way. But he will throw enough to be a great starter here and there. You just have to figure out which is here and which is there.

 

[ninerfan]

Did you ever think you'd have to ask that question?

 

[Brutis]

I can't believe I am about to type this... Harrington is the safer pick.

Both these guys can be had very late and are nothing more than a #3 QB in dynasty leagues. Im not looking for a 'safe" pick out of my #3 qb.Redraft Im not sure either of these guys are even drafted unless its a 16 team league, than maybe i go with harrington.

 

[DWidmar]

So nobody's concerned about CPepp losing snaps to McCown or eventually Russell? Harrington basically has no competition for the job.

I think they are both basically on one year auditions anyway although C-pep is the one signed to a one year contract. If they both have good years, Harrington stays in Atlanta and C-pep probably signs a big contract in Jacksonville or somewhere else. If Harrington messes this up he is probably done as a starter for life (barring injury or arrest of the starter). As a qb3 I would rather go with the more upside than with a safer pick. There are plenty of mid range qb's to be safe with I want a guy who has the greatest upside (reward) even though it might be a big risk.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Cumulative I'd pick Harrington because I don't expect CPep to start all year. On a points per game played basis I'll take Daunte.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Harrington is pretty awful. I expect him to have one of the worst QB ratings in the league, again. The only thing is the Falcons might have to throw the ball about 600 times this year, so he'll probably have some valuable fantasy games.

If you look at his stats, Harrington was actually worse in Miami than he was in Detroit. His QB rating was lower and his TD/INT ratio was worse. His average yards per attempt is also the worst in the league. Some blamed his lack of weapons and poor coaching in Detroit for the record low YPA. But it was just as bad in Miami. And suprisingly, for a QB that has so many short passing attempts, he also has a lackluster completion percentage. At least David Carr led the league in completion percentage throwing the same passes. But Joey is so inaccurate that he can't even top 57.5%. Joey has been in the league 5 years now and has failed with 2 different teams. Now Atlanta is trying to pair an inaccurate, non-mobile QB with a below average WR core. Unless they can create a miracle to get Joey above the 60% completion mark and throw more TD's than INT's, it's not going to work.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Never thought I'd see the day when this question would be asked.

Next up Peyton Manning vs Kyle Orton.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Oh I voted Culpepper btw, since there wasn't a 3rd less ugly option.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've been as vocal a Harrington hater as anyone. That being said, he's going to throw the ball a ton this year. So I put my thoughts down in a blog post on why he might have fantasy value:

I don’t think Joey Harrington is any good, and I haven’t thought he was going to be any good in a long time. That being said, there are some serious mis-projections going on right now. David Dodds has the Falcons with 454 attempts, Henry has Atlanta with 470, Smith 420, Tremblay 485 and Wood 500. Only Wood stands a chance of being accurate, in my opinion.

Last year Atlanta passed 416 times and ran 537 times — but that’s very misleading. The Falcons were also sacked 47 times last year, and QB runs accounted for 130 of those carries. In other words, the Atlanta QB passed, ran or was sacked 593 times in 2006.

Harrington has been sacked way fewer than most QBs; for his career only once for every 24 pass attempts. Last year, he was sacked just once for every 26 pass attempts, and ran just once every 20 pass attempts. If we project non-QBs to rush 407 times again this year, what splits should we expect out of Harrington if he takes every snap? Something like 544 pass attempts, 22 sacks and 27 rush attempts.

Going further, the Falcons defense is terrible. Only the Redskins had a pass defense as weak as Atlanta’s in 2006. The additions of rookies Anderson and Houston might help down the road, but I fully expect Atlanta to give up a ton of points in 2007. Lots of points allowed should lead Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.

What about the running game? I like Norwood and Dunn, but I expect to see some serious decline in their yards per rush this year. Doug Drinen projects the Falcons RB yards per rush to drop from 4.64 to under 4.00 this year, and I don’t think he’s far off. Vick was always the center of attention for opposing defenses, and he changed the way the DEs and LBs would align. That undoubtedly helped Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC last year, and allow Dunn to be one of two RBs in NFL history (Tiki Barber) to rush for 1400+ yards at 5.00+ yards per carry at the age of 30 or greater. Now? With a weaker running game, expect fewer carries and more passes. Which once again points to good things for Harrington.

If he stays healthy — which he always has — Harrington could close in on 600 pass attempts this year. An awful defense, an average running game, and a QB that rarely runs or gets sacked is a recipe for at least 500 pass attempts. And only Jason Wood has recognized that so far.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I've been as vocal a Harrington hater as anyone. That being said, he's going to throw the ball a ton this year. So I put my thoughts down in a blog post on why he might have fantasy value:

I don’t think Joey Harrington is any good, and I haven’t thought he was going to be any good in a long time. That being said, there are some serious mis-projections going on right now. David Dodds has the Falcons with 454 attempts, Henry has Atlanta with 470, Smith 420, Tremblay 485 and Wood 500. Only Wood stands a chance of being accurate, in my opinion.

Last year Atlanta passed 416 times and ran 537 times — but that’s very misleading. The Falcons were also sacked 47 times last year, and QB runs accounted for 130 of those carries. In other words, the Atlanta QB passed, ran or was sacked 593 times in 2006.

Harrington has been sacked way fewer than most QBs; for his career only once for every 24 pass attempts. Last year, he was sacked just once for every 26 pass attempts, and ran just once every 20 pass attempts. If we project non-QBs to rush 407 times again this year, what splits should we expect out of Harrington if he takes every snap? Something like 544 pass attempts, 22 sacks and 27 rush attempts.

Going further, the Falcons defense is terrible. Only the Redskins had a pass defense as weak as Atlanta’s in 2006. The additions of rookies Anderson and Houston might help down the road, but I fully expect Atlanta to give up a ton of points in 2007. Lots of points allowed should lead Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.

What about the running game? I like Norwood and Dunn, but I expect to see some serious decline in their yards per rush this year. Doug Drinen projects the Falcons RB yards per rush to drop from 4.64 to under 4.00 this year, and I don’t think he’s far off. Vick was always the center of attention for opposing defenses, and he changed the way the DEs and LBs would align. That undoubtedly helped Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC last year, and allow Dunn to be one of two RBs in NFL history (Tiki Barber) to rush for 1400+ yards at 5.00+ yards per carry at the age of 30 or greater. Now? With a weaker running game, expect fewer carries and more passes. Which once again points to good things for Harrington.

If he stays healthy — which he always has — Harrington could close in on 600 pass attempts this year. An awful defense, an average running game, and a QB that rarely runs or gets sacked is a recipe for at least 500 pass attempts. And only Jason Wood has recognized that so far.

Chase, that's very good analysis but let's plug in some numbers. Assume Harrington does get 500 pass attempts. Now plug in his career 57% completion percentage and 6.0 YPA. That equals: 285 completions and 3000 yds passing with around 19TD and 20 INT. Guys that put up similar or better numbers last year would be Grossman, Losman, A.Smith, and McNair. So yes there would be value but the INT's and low YAC would definitely hurt. But I guess he could finish in the top 15-20 QB with those stats and be a decent backup for some owners.

Also don't forget that Joey did have 554 pass attempts in Detroit in 2003 and 489 in 2004 (probably his best year as a pro).

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've been as vocal a Harrington hater as anyone. That being said, he's going to throw the ball a ton this year. So I put my thoughts down in a blog post on why he might have fantasy value:

I don’t think Joey Harrington is any good, and I haven’t thought he was going to be any good in a long time. That being said, there are some serious mis-projections going on right now. David Dodds has the Falcons with 454 attempts, Henry has Atlanta with 470, Smith 420, Tremblay 485 and Wood 500. Only Wood stands a chance of being accurate, in my opinion.

Last year Atlanta passed 416 times and ran 537 times — but that’s very misleading. The Falcons were also sacked 47 times last year, and QB runs accounted for 130 of those carries. In other words, the Atlanta QB passed, ran or was sacked 593 times in 2006.

Harrington has been sacked way fewer than most QBs; for his career only once for every 24 pass attempts. Last year, he was sacked just once for every 26 pass attempts, and ran just once every 20 pass attempts. If we project non-QBs to rush 407 times again this year, what splits should we expect out of Harrington if he takes every snap? Something like 544 pass attempts, 22 sacks and 27 rush attempts.

Going further, the Falcons defense is terrible. Only the Redskins had a pass defense as weak as Atlanta’s in 2006. The additions of rookies Anderson and Houston might help down the road, but I fully expect Atlanta to give up a ton of points in 2007. Lots of points allowed should lead Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.

What about the running game? I like Norwood and Dunn, but I expect to see some serious decline in their yards per rush this year. Doug Drinen projects the Falcons RB yards per rush to drop from 4.64 to under 4.00 this year, and I don’t think he’s far off. Vick was always the center of attention for opposing defenses, and he changed the way the DEs and LBs would align. That undoubtedly helped Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC last year, and allow Dunn to be one of two RBs in NFL history (Tiki Barber) to rush for 1400+ yards at 5.00+ yards per carry at the age of 30 or greater. Now? With a weaker running game, expect fewer carries and more passes. Which once again points to good things for Harrington.

If he stays healthy — which he always has — Harrington could close in on 600 pass attempts this year. An awful defense, an average running game, and a QB that rarely runs or gets sacked is a recipe for at least 500 pass attempts. And only Jason Wood has recognized that so far.

Chase, that's very good analysis but let's plug in some numbers. Assume Harrington does get 500 pass attempts. Now plug in his career 57% completion percentage and 6.0 YPA. That equals: 285 completions and 3000 yds passing with around 19TD and 20 INT. Guys that put up similar or better numbers last year would be Grossman, Losman, A.Smith, and McNair. So yes there would be value but the INT's and low YAC would definitely hurt. But I guess he could finish in the top 15-20 QB with those stats and be a decent backup for some owners.

Also don't forget that Joey did have 554 pass attempts in Detroit in 2003 and 489 in 2004 (probably his best year as a pro).

If Harrington takes every snap, I'd probably project him for something in the neighborhood of 530 pass attempts. Using 6.0, that puts him at 3,180 yards. I think 19 TD and 20 INT is a pretty good projection there as well. Will he be valuable? Not really. But he'll probably finish in the top 20, and be a decent enough backup that you can get for dirt cheap. I probably wouldn't have him in my top 20 most weeks, but I would in my top 25. He's a good backup for the Manning or Brady owner, because he's cheap and has the job locked up. And you never know when he'll have a 50 pass attempt week, which means about 300 yards.