Has anyone ever tried this strategy from a late round pick? (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I posted this much earlier in the day: One type of strategy from a late pick

And I've been thinking about that strategy all day. I just think if you are drafting 9th or 10th in a 10 teamer; or 11th or 12th in a 12 teamer - it seems if you follow standard FF logic, you will always be behind the ball.

If you start off with RBs at the 1/2 turn - they won't be as good as those that landed a stud (Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Jackson, Addai, etc). Meanwhile, your WRs won't be as good either b/c while you are trying to grab 2 RBs to make up for your automatic loss at RB, the top WRs (except for Moss) start falling: Owens, Fitz, Edwards, Wayne, etc. So the very guys that got a stud RB, can have a top end WR. Then they pair that start with a R.Grant, MJD, etc - and the killer is that arguably those RBs aren't that far of a dropoff from the guys you were taking at the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2 (LJ, Lynch, etc). For more on all this, see the link to the other thread.

So given that the standard FF logic puts an end drafter behind the ball, I started mocking out the very strategy in the above linked thread.

But after experimenting with several mocks, I tested another strategy. NO WRS IN THE FIRST 6 ROUNDS!! And now I can't get that out of my head. Again, this stems from the idea that the end drafter (9th or 10th pick in a 10-teamer; 11th or 12th in a 12-teamer) is already playing catchup. So in some ways, that team has to rock the boat and try something different.

Look what you could do if you ignore WRs through the 1st 6 rounds. I used Dodds' Top 220 as a basis.

Rnd 1 - Portis

Rnd 2 - Lynch

Rnd 3 - Brees

Rnd 4 - Turner

Rnd 5 - Ricky Williams (or Forte)

Rnd 6 - Witten (or Winslow)

Rnd 7 - Burleson

Rnd 8 - Driver

Rnd 9 - Mason

Rnd 10 - V.Jackson

Rnd 11 - Minnesota

Rnd 12 - C.Perry

Rnd 13 - M.Morris

Rnd 14 - S.Slaton

Take a closer look at this roster.

QB - you have a top 4 guy. I consider there to only be four top QBs this year; after that you may as well wait several rounds. But not needed here. You'd get one of those top four guys!

RB - You've spent 3 of your top 4 picks; and 4 of your top 6 picks on RBs. You can get 3 true starters this way (in the above example that is Gore, Portis, Turner). And you can take a chance on a RickyW of M.Forte type for a little insurance. Then when you return to RBs later, you just take whichever sleepers you like. You have a greater chance this way of making the right call on a sleeper RB b/c of how many cracks at it you get. The reason you get so many cracks at it is b/c you have studs at QB, TE, and DST. So you don't need to back them up, or at least not for a very long time.

WR - This will be your weakest position given the strategy of not touching one in the 1st 6 rounds. But are they really that bad? Burleson, Driver, Mason, V.Jackson. I truly do not think that is that shabby of a group.

TE - You should be able to get either the top TE on your board or at least the 2nd TE on your board in the 5th round of a 10-teamer.

DST - You should be able to get either the top DST on your board or at least the 2nd DST on your board in the 10th in a 10-teamer.

So in sum: top 4 QB, solid RBs w/ solid RB depth, decent enough WRs (though this is the weakest part), top 1-2 TE, top 1-2 DST.

I would love to hear thoughts on those that are considering something like this or better yet, have tried this in the past. Was it successful or a failure? What do you think of this? What do you think of this compared to the other thread?

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Tried it again, but this time using the Average Draft Rankings posted on the site from 8/18 instead of Dodds' Top 200.

Again, without a WR through 6 rounds, you can have something along the following lines (for analysis purpose, please respond about the theory/strategy, not whether you agree with a particular player per se):

Rnd 1 - Portis

Rnd 2 - Lynch

Rnd 3 - Brees

Rnd 4 - E.Graham

Rnd 5 - Gates

Rnd 6 - Selvin Young

Rnd 7 - R.White

Rnd 8 - Driver

Rnd 9 - Mason

Rnd 10 - Burleson

Rnd 11 - Dallas

Rnd 12 - R.Rice

Rnd 13 - M.Morris

Rnd 14 - Curry

Based upon ADP, Witten and Winslow are gone by 5.10, so I went Gates.

Also, the top 2 DSTs were gone by round 11, so I went for one still arguably very good. I could have easily just waited til 13/14th rounds and taking a similar one.

And while taking flyers at the end, this time I went with 2 RB flyers and 1 WR flyer - instead of 3-0.

Still looks pretty good.

 

[shredhead]

Rnd 1 - PortisRnd 2 - LynchRnd 3 - BreesRnd 4 - TurnerRnd 5 - Ricky Williams (or Forte)Rnd 6 - Witten (or Winslow)Rnd 7 - BurlesonRnd 8 - DriverRnd 9 - MasonRnd 10 - V.JacksonRnd 11 - MinnesotaRnd 12 - C.PerryRnd 13 - M.MorrisRnd 14 - S.Slaton

My 10 team draft last weekend I drafted 10th:1/2 Portis/Lynch both available3/4 Brees gone, Turner available5/6 Ricky available, Forte, Witten, and Winslow gone7/8 Burleson/Driver both available 9/10 Mason/Jackson both available11/12 Vikes gone, Perry available13/14 Morris/Slaton both available (both went undrafted in 16 rounds)So out of the 16 players you mentioned, 5 were gone at your predicted spot in my league. What's your backup plan? I think you need to look a little closer at your ADP's.I kinda like your concepts (more your first one than this one) and thinking outside the box, but I think you still have some work to do before you try it in a real draft.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Instead of going to some site and mocking this out with random people on the internet, I tried this a 3rd and final way.

In my original post I tried it using Dodds' Top 220 as a basis. In the 2nd post, I used a standard ADP list as the basis. And finally, I tried off a VBD cheatsheet. I went to the 163 cheatsheets Gray puts together. I chose one that worked for one of my leagues b/c afterall, I had to choose something.

Here is what you could have had:

Rnd 1 - Portis

Rnd 2 - Lynch

Rnd 3 - Manning

Rnd 4 - Turner

Rnd 5 - Gates

Rnd 6 - DeAngelo Williams

After the top 60 on the right side of the cheatsheet ran out, I looked at the ADPs next to each player on that cheatsheet to fill out the rest:

Rnd 7 - Burleson

Rnd 8 - Berrian

Rnd 9 - Reggie Brown

Rnd 10 - V.Jackson

Rnd 11 - Jacksonville

Rnd 12 - M.Morris

Rnd 13 - Betts (since I have Portis)

Rnd 14 - S.Slaton

What I am realizing is that you might not get the top TE on your board at 5.10, but you should still be able to get a top 3 TE.

Likewise with not necessarily getting a top DST, but you should still be able to get a top 5 DST. If you really want to get a top 2 DST, go for one at the 9/10 turn instead of waiting til the 11/12 turn. Should be there.

Through all these mocks under the strategy of not one single WR in the first 6 rounds - I have to say, I have liked the way every team ended up.

It comes down to a simple premise that many already know: It is much easier to find good WRs in the middle of the draft then it is to find good RBs or top QBs and top TEs.

Please share thoughts. I would love to know if anyone has tried this in the past; and if so, how did it work?

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Rnd 1 - PortisRnd 2 - LynchRnd 3 - BreesRnd 4 - TurnerRnd 5 - Ricky Williams (or Forte)Rnd 6 - Witten (or Winslow)Rnd 7 - BurlesonRnd 8 - DriverRnd 9 - MasonRnd 10 - V.JacksonRnd 11 - MinnesotaRnd 12 - C.PerryRnd 13 - M.MorrisRnd 14 - S.Slaton

My 10 team draft last weekend I drafted 10th:1/2 Portis/Lynch both available3/4 Brees gone, Turner available5/6 Ricky available, Forte, Witten, and Winslow gone7/8 Burleson/Driver both available 9/10 Mason/Jackson both available11/12 Vikes gone, Perry available13/14 Morris/Slaton both available (both went undrafted in 16 rounds)So out of the 16 players you mentioned, 5 were gone at your predicted spot in my league. What's your backup plan? I think you need to look a little closer at your ADP's.I kinda like your concepts (more your first one than this one) and thinking outside the box, but I think you still have some work to do before you try it in a real draft.

Don't look at the EXACT players. I was going for a certain premise, not necessarily those specific guys. A better way to back test it is looking at similar players. For instance, you say Brees was gone. Were Manning, Brady, and Romo all gone by then too?You wrote that Witten and Winslow were both gone at the 5/6. What about Gonzalez or Gates?You wrote that the Vikes were gone by 11/12. Was SanDiego, NewEngland, Chicago? If so, were any of them available at the 9/10.I am trying to see if it would need to be altered a bit.But the premise is to simply not take one single WR in the top 6 rounds. After 6, you should have 1QB, 4RBs, and 1TE.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Banzai draft & you don't feel forced to go with any set strategy. Having 3.3 vs. 3.10 makes a helluva difference IMO.

I'd be ####ting bricks if Manning were there in the 3rd. It just won't happen.

 

[FUBAR]

I like your other theory better, and yes, Burleson, Driver, Mason, V.Jackson is a crappy group of WRs. The only positions you're strong at are QB and TE. You could get lucky, but I don't like it.

 

[Muahahaha]

I have never understood this overriding desire to draft 4 RBs in the first 6 rounds. If your first two picks bust, you probably aren't winning your league anyway.

And then the WRs you are drafting are not high upside WRs, but veterans. Yes, they will get you points, but they won't win you your league and are probably not significantly better than waiver wire WRs.

You appear to be drafting to avoid finishing last as opposed to trying to win.

 

[fasteddie_21]

I like that you're thinking outside of the box, but I'm a much bigger fan of your first idea than this. As FUBAR said, you're only ahead in two positions and moderate in one (RB) and really weak @ WR, which, in a PPR league, should get you eaten up. Definitely like the thinking though!

 

[kstockwell]

I have never understood this overriding desire to draft 4 RBs in the first 6 rounds. If your first two picks bust, you probably aren't winning your league anyway.And then the WRs you are drafting are not high upside WRs, but veterans. Yes, they will get you points, but they won't win you your league and are probably not significantly better than waiver wire WRs.You appear to be drafting to avoid finishing last as opposed to trying to win.

I just can't help myself with drafting RB's early and often. However, in my league, you can only start 2WR (no flex) and QB's get 4/-2 so they aren't as valuable. Given this, I always need to have a 3rd RB that is a starter. I agree that if your first 2 RB's get injured/bust, you probably aren't going to win your league but if 1 goes down to injury or is sucking big time, I can slot in my 3rd rb. This year in a 12 man league drafting in the 12 spot (ppr) I grabbed Portis (1.12), Lynch (2.1), Chad Johnson (3.12), Calvin Johnson (4.12) with Lendel at 6.1 and Rudi at 8.1 (before all the Chris Perry talk). To the original poster, I think you should just be flexible because there will be surprises as the draft proceeds. Just adjust accordingly and you should be OK.

 

[Alias]

There is too much value at RB in the middle rounds to take so many early - you are doing your team a disservice by not taking any WR in the first 6 rounds. Granted there is usually more value at WR then any other position in the middle to late rounds but you pass up on tons of points by boycotting that position early.

 

[j3r3m3y]

I have never understood this overriding desire to draft 4 RBs in the first 6 rounds. If your first two picks bust, you probably aren't winning your league anyway.

The following thoughts are my "gut" feeling and have no detailed statistical support. YMMVThe disparity between RB#24 and RB#36 is much greater than the disparity between WR#24 and WR#36. In addition the likelihood of picking up a RB on waivers that is worth starting is much lower than the likelihood of picking up w WR that is worth starting.This may be a catch 22 as everyone scoops up RBs so RBs are overvalued because they are scarce, and they are scarce because they are overvalued. In my keeper league (keep three) there are 20 RB's being kept by 12 teams. There are 6 WRs being kept. This may be atypical but this will cause people to reach for RBs in the first (really the 4th) round just to have some on their roster.It is also my opinion that RB's are easier to predict and more consistant point scorers. WR's are "streaky" and harder to count on week in and week out. With RB's it is easier to predict how many times they are likely to touch the ball.

 

[eoMMan]

I don't like it at all. You're receivers are baaaaad. You've better off balancing your team. Personally, I like going RB, WR, WR, RB.....then leaving it up to what's there. I'll wait on a decent QB (like a McNabb or someone even later like Garrard). You can still get some decent RB's in the 4th and 5th rounds.

 

[MDSkinner]

I have never understood this overriding desire to draft 4 RBs in the first 6 rounds. If your first two picks bust, you probably aren't winning your league anyway.

And then the WRs you are drafting are not high upside WRs, but veterans. Yes, they will get you points, but they won't win you your league and are probably not significantly better than waiver wire WRs.

You appear to be drafting to avoid finishing last as opposed to trying to win.

The bolded is an interesting statement. I would argue that it is only partially true in a situation like this though...I think the goal is not to avoid finishing last, but more to be sure and finish competitively (top half of the league). That said, I think it is absolutely a strategy that is geared toward making the playoff as opposed to winning them. Kind of like hedging your bets instead of going all in.Whether that is good or bad is pretty subjective, but I can certainly see (and have done) both sides of that argument.

 

[ATC1]

In a QB 6 point league from the 9th (of 12) spot I did this.

Gore

Manning

T. Jones

Witten

B. Marshall

D. Bowe

D. Williams

N. Burleason

A. Gonzalez

R. Williams

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Why not grab R. Moss in the 1st rd? Then, you can wait til late on to draft a WR and still have a stud at that position. I went WR (Moss), RB (Lynch), QB (Brees), RB (T. Jones), TE (Gates)....and then started grabbing WRs (Cotchery, Burleson, Galloway)

So, my team ended up like this

QB: Brees (top 4)

RB: Lynch, T. Jones

WR: Moss, Cotchery, Burleson, Galloway

TE: Gates

Not bad, and no glaring weaknesses like you have at WR.

 

[Alias]

Here's a better strategy, draft as many starters as you can in the first 6 rounds. RB depth only helps when you know you can work favorable trades post-draft.

 

[ATC1]

Why not grab R. Moss in the 1st rd? Then, you can wait til late on to draft a WR and still have a stud at that position. I went WR (Moss), RB (Lynch), QB (Brees), RB (T. Jones), TE (Gates)....and then started grabbing WRs (Cotchery, Burleson, Galloway)So, my team ended up like thisQB: Brees (top 4)RB: Lynch, T. JonesWR: Moss, Cotchery, Burleson, GallowayTE: GatesNot bad, and no glaring weaknesses like you have at WR.

This was my plan, but Moss was gone by 1.09, Brees went in the early 2nd, Lynch was gone at the turn.

 

[shredhead]

Rnd 1 - PortisRnd 2 - LynchRnd 3 - BreesRnd 4 - TurnerRnd 5 - Ricky Williams (or Forte)Rnd 6 - Witten (or Winslow)Rnd 7 - BurlesonRnd 8 - DriverRnd 9 - MasonRnd 10 - V.JacksonRnd 11 - MinnesotaRnd 12 - C.PerryRnd 13 - M.MorrisRnd 14 - S.Slaton

My 10 team draft last weekend I drafted 10th:1/2 Portis/Lynch both available3/4 Brees gone, Turner available5/6 Ricky available, Forte, Witten, and Winslow gone7/8 Burleson/Driver both available 9/10 Mason/Jackson both available11/12 Vikes gone, Perry available13/14 Morris/Slaton both available (both went undrafted in 16 rounds)So out of the 16 players you mentioned, 5 were gone at your predicted spot in my league. What's your backup plan? I think you need to look a little closer at your ADP's.I kinda like your concepts (more your first one than this one) and thinking outside the box, but I think you still have some work to do before you try it in a real draft.

Don't look at the EXACT players. I was going for a certain premise, not necessarily those specific guys. A better way to back test it is looking at similar players. For instance, you say Brees was gone. Were Manning, Brady, and Romo all gone by then too?You wrote that Witten and Winslow were both gone at the 5/6. What about Gonzalez or Gates?You wrote that the Vikes were gone by 11/12. Was SanDiego, NewEngland, Chicago? If so, were any of them available at the 9/10.I am trying to see if it would need to be altered a bit.But the premise is to simply not take one single WR in the top 6 rounds. After 6, you should have 1QB, 4RBs, and 1TE.

I understand that you weren't talking about the exact players mentioned and to look at similar players at those draft slots. To answer your questions, Gonzalez and Chicago D were the only similar players available at those spots and I don't think either one of them belong in the top tiers anyway, but that's just me, I'm down on both Gonzo and the Bears this season. That is why I said that you should try to tweak it a little and re look at your ADP's, of course we probably have different scoring systems so the ADP's could be different. Like I said earlier, I'm not trying to just bash your theory, I'm just telling you what I think needs adjusting with it. I will say again, I like your first strategy better than this one, so i would put more time into tweaking that one instead of this one.