Having a problem with a couple projections (1 Viewer)

[HULLOBUDMAN]

There have been some RBs that recently got named starter. I want to tweak my projections to fit these backs being named starter but they just don't seem to fit my eye:

Chris Perry-1089/8 - 24/220/1 Assuming Rudi is gone. Too high on the yardage? Is Watson a threat take carries?

MOMO-860/5 , 20/160/1 Does the starting job mean anything? Seems like yardage is too high again?

Ricky Williams - 953/8, 22/163 Not giving enough credit to RB?

Am I giving too much credit to these 3 for being named starter?

Thanks,

 

[Fantaholic]

There have been some RBs that recently got named starter. I want to tweak my projections to fit these backs being named starter but they just don't seem to fit my eye:Chris Perry-1089/8 - 24/220/1 Assuming Rudi is gone. Too high on the yardage? Is Watson a threat take carries?MOMO-860/5 , 20/160/1 Does the starting job mean anything? Seems like yardage is too high again?Ricky Williams - 953/8, 22/163 Not giving enough credit to RB?Am I giving too much credit to these 3 for being named starter?Thanks,

I think so. I don't believe the title of "starter" means all that much with any of them. They will all split carries in some way. All great picks late in the draft, but I wouldn't count on "fantasy starter" type numbers from any of them at this point.

 

[modogg]

I think you're closest with Mo Mo because Jones won't get a ton of carries and I think they will need to utilize their RB's a lot in Seattle. And I think the one you are farthest with is Perry. Watson will take away some of his yardage, as well as Rudi isn't out of the picture yet. I think bottom line is like the other reply said, the title of starter doesn't mean much. With this, I think you need to weigh in the fact that teams wth these type of situation won't necessarily run a RBBC or give guys carries each game. You will have some coaches run with whoever is hot and catches on, which you need to consider when picking these guys up. I could see Perry being more situational and getting carris here and there each game, as opposed to a situation with Mo Mo where if he goes off for a game I tink Jones is out of the picture until he cools off

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I am considering Rudi as being gone. I think he would have played the 4th preseason game if there wasn't something in the works. the question for me becomes whether Watson is a situational player or RBBC. I really want to give 250- 300 carries to Perry. Am I crazy for that?

MOMO is one of the projections I was least comfortable with because I think Holmgren will go with the hot hand week to week.

Lots has been said on this board as far as ricky vs. ronnie rb. Don't think anyone has an accurate read on that.

Thanks for the input.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

bumped for input from the morning crowd.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I'd expect fewer rushing yards and TDs from Perry and more catches and yards. Maybe 900/5 with 38/300/2 Watson, and to a lesser extent Dorsey, will be involved.

MoMo looks pretty good.

Ricky looks high to me. Ronnie looks pretty good now and will only get better. Ricky maybe 650/6, with 20/180/1 for receiving.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I'd expect fewer rushing yards and TDs from Perry and more catches and yards. Maybe 900/5 with 38/300/2 Watson, and to a lesser extent Dorsey, will be involved.MoMo looks pretty good.Ricky looks high to me. Ronnie looks pretty good now and will only get better. Ricky maybe 650/6, with 20/180/1 for receiving.

I think I have been talked into lowering Perry's projection. I really thought Watson was just a COP back though.You may be right about lowering Ricky's receiving numbers a bit. I haven't seen any Miami preseason or seen RB yet. Just thinking he would be used very sparing for the first half since he is only 1 yr from ACL injury.Thanks for the input.

 

[qimqam]

Regarding Chris Perry ... I think if he can handle the load he will be the featured back and put up numbers similiar to you early projections.

Perry is first round talent and the Bengals have stuck with him throughthe injuries for a reason. Rudi may be gone and Watson is a 30 year old servicable backup who will spell Perry occasionally and of course replace him if he is injured.

As long as he stays healthy and that is a big ? I would think he would get 260 to 280 touches

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If Rudi is gone, Perry has the best upside. Miami and Seattle will want Ronnie Brown and JJones to be successful.

Adjust accordingly...

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Regarding Chris Perry ... I think if he can handle the load he will be the featured back and put up numbers similiar to you early projections.Perry is first round talent and the Bengals have stuck with him throughthe injuries for a reason. Rudi may be gone and Watson is a 30 year old servicable backup who will spell Perry occasionally and of course replace him if he is injured.As long as he stays healthy and that is a big ? I would think he would get 260 to 280 touches

That was my thinking but a bit lower as far as carries. 250-270 with around 4.0 per carry. I'd like to know where his REAL ADP is right now with all the articles about Rudi getting cut. If anyone drafts this weekend maybe they will check in.According to MFL in drafts after 8/25 his average position is 112 so the 9th round. I can't imagine that will be the case in drafts over the next few days.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

If Rudi is gone, Perry has the best upside. Miami and Seattle will want Ronnie Brown and JJones to be successful.Adjust accordingly...

So Miami and Seattle won't want MOMO and RW to be successful? I think I am missing your point.

 

[whodeywhodey]

MOMO-860/5 , 20/160/1 Does the starting job mean anything? Seems like yardage is too high again?

FYI this would easily put MoMo in the top 30 RBs for 2008.I think these numbers are pretty accurate.That makes MoMo possibly one of the biggest steals of the draft if you can get him in round 12 or 13.

 

[AAABatteries]

I'd expect fewer rushing yards and TDs from Perry and more catches and yards. Maybe 900/5 with 38/300/2 Watson, and to a lesser extent Dorsey, will be involved.

MoMo looks pretty good.

Ricky looks high to me. Ronnie looks pretty good now and will only get better. Ricky maybe 650/6, with 20/180/1 for receiving.

Did he have a bag of dorritos on the sideline?

 

[runner06]

Here are Chris Perry's 2005 numbers. I think he was a glorified 3rd down back that year.

61 rush attempts, 279 yards rushing, 0 rushing Touchdowns

62 targets, 51 catches, 328 yards receiving, 2 receiving touchdowns.

If the guy can stay healthy, he looks like a poor man's Brian Westbrook to me. So the reception totals above are way off if he plays 16 games.

 

[runner06]

Here what's I could see him doing if he is healthy

220 rushing attempts, 950 yards rushing, 5 rushing touchdowns

70 receptions, 590 yards receiving, 4 receiving touchdowns

 

[whodeywhodey]

Here what's I could see him doing if he is healthy220 rushing attempts, 950 yards rushing, 5 rushing touchdowns70 receptions, 590 yards receiving, 4 receiving touchdowns

I don't see Perry putting up those numbers. The Bengals will use Watson and maybe even Dorsey and it will be a muddy RBBC in the Natti.

 

[runner06]

Here what's I could see him doing if he is healthy220 rushing attempts, 950 yards rushing, 5 rushing touchdowns70 receptions, 590 yards receiving, 4 receiving touchdowns

I don't see Perry putting up those numbers. The Bengals will use Watson and maybe even Dorsey and it will be a muddy RBBC in the Natti.

Maybe not, but considering he got 50+ catches the year he was a backup and third down running back, I'd say that we can expect at least 50 catches and probably 60 or more catches from him this year.

 

[flranger]

Here what's I could see him doing if he is healthy220 rushing attempts, 950 yards rushing, 5 rushing touchdowns70 receptions, 590 yards receiving, 4 receiving touchdowns

RB5 in most PPR leagues. Wow.So I shoud be able to trade him for Marion Barber, Addai, or Frank Gore now right.......?

 

[whhwalker]

Here what's I could see him doing if he is healthy220 rushing attempts, 950 yards rushing, 5 rushing touchdowns70 receptions, 590 yards receiving, 4 receiving touchdowns

RB5 in most PPR leagues. Wow.So I shoud be able to trade him for Marion Barber, Addai, or Frank Gore now right.......?

I'm not sure about RB5, but Rudi averaged 300+ carries, 1400yds rushing and 12 rushing TDs 2004-2006. Would you consider Perry as RB1 for Cinci getting 80% of these numbers? If so, then Perry is 250 carries, 1100yds and 9 rushing TDs. Rudi averaged 90% of rushing touches in these years.Therefore, Perry would need to average approximately 65% of the total rushing touches and maintain the same ypc as Rudi (3.8) to achieve the projections presented above. Please note there is no receptions factored into these numbers.Conclusion: No I don't think he's RB5, but the RB1 for Cinci has the "potential" for RB10.

 

[Road Warriors]

416 - 07

435 - 06

459 - 05

The number of carries by the Bengals the past three years. 420 is a pretty conservative estimate for the number of carries to be split. Perry, if he stays healthy, will see 50-60% of those. So the 210 - 230 range is quite reasonable for the number of carries to expect from Perry.

In addition, I noted the Bengals have a pretty high total receptions from their RBs, something Rudi was well known as below average.

Rudi had 23, 23, 13.

Perry had 51 in '05, 9 in '06

Watson had 23 in 06 and 52 last year

The 52 receptions to Watson in limited starts represents closer to what I think we'll see out of a Perry led backfield.

Going back to your original projections, I think you're a bit high on rushing yardage, I'm looking at about 200/800/7, with 45/400/2.

 

[whodeywhodey]

416 - 07435 - 06459 - 05 The number of carries by the Bengals the past three years. 420 is a pretty conservative estimate for the number of carries to be split. Perry, if he stays healthy, will see 50-60% of those. So the 210 - 230 range is quite reasonable for the number of carries to expect from Perry.In addition, I noted the Bengals have a pretty high total receptions from their RBs, something Rudi was well known as below average. Rudi had 23, 23, 13.Perry had 51 in '05, 9 in '06Watson had 23 in 06 and 52 last yearThe 52 receptions to Watson in limited starts represents closer to what I think we'll see out of a Perry led backfield. Going back to your original projections, I think you're a bit high on rushing yardage, I'm looking at about 200/800/7, with 45/400/2.

That's more like it for Perry's numbers.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Those numbers would put Perry at RB 15-20 in my scoring system that gives .5 ppr. Not sure where that puts him in a ppr. If you consider he gets 60% of the Bengals' carries that would project him at 252 carries and 1008 yards. It doesn't seem unreasonable to think that he would receive 60% of the carries (252) does it? That would project him into the 10-15 range in a ppr which again seems high to me.

 

[Road Warriors]

Those numbers would put Perry at RB 15-20 in my scoring system that gives .5 ppr. Not sure where that puts him in a ppr. If you consider he gets 60% of the Bengals' carries that would project him at 252 carries and 1008 yards. It doesn't seem unreasonable to think that he would receive 60% of the carries (252) does it? That would project him into the 10-15 range in a ppr which again seems high to me.

I understand what you're saying, and this is where analysis meets gut feel. I threw out the Bengals rushing totals as well as RB receptions to show trends of that offense, but I also feel that Perry won't see 250 carries, even if if fits the numbers.One idea that is rattling around my head is that the rushing totals were based on a feature back with below average receiving skills, and may have influenced the play calling. With both Perry and Watson ( not sure about Dorsey's skill set ) they Bengals have +receiving skills in the RB position, and the run/pass ratio may change up a bit. I don't believe they're built for a power run game, so they may be looking for "extended handoff" type plays in the flat to augment the run game.A breakdown of carries something likePerry - 200Watson - 160Dorsey - 30Palmer - 30Other - 10this would put the Bengals around 430 carries ( in the ball park ) and in a ratio I can envision. As for Perry slipping in somewhere around 15, depending on scoring system... well, if he does play in 16 games, in the role most seem to agree he'll play, I can see it happening, especially in ppr systems.But I agree that slotting him there now feels a bit off. I guess I wouldn't draft him there ( 3rd or so ) , but love getting him as RB 25-30 around he 6th or so.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I'll be curious to see where he is getting drafted in drafts that took place over this weekend. I'm wondering if he is lasting until the 6th or 7th after Rudi getting released.

My last draft is next Sat so there is plenty of time for the hype machine to work. i'm thinking it may be irrelevant because of where may will actually go. I would invest in a 6th or 7th but probably no sooner.