Help me break down Pass defenses (1 Viewer)

[daveR]

Who belongs elsewhere?

Based on 2009 stats, opp qb rtg / opp comp % / sacks, 2010 personnel, here's my initial guess at Pass D tiers, best to worst.

superlative tier:

NYJ, BUF(?)

very good tier:

DEN, NO, GB, BAL, PHA, CIN

average nfl pass d tier:

ARZ, SF, SD, OAK, TEN, CAR, IND, DAL, WAS, NYG, CHI, HOU, PIT, MIA, NE, CLE

poor tier

SEA, KC, TB, JAX, ATL, DET, MIN

abysmal tier:

STL

ETA: tier descriptions.

 

[daveR]

13 hours later, no replies.

I guess this is going to be tougher than I thought.

 

[David Yudkin]

I had a similar discussion about BUF elsewhere, but IMO BUF's pass defense is mostly good because they can't stop anyone in the running game. Statistically, the year before they were average against the pass.

 

[daveR]

I had a similar discussion about BUF elsewhere, but IMO BUF's pass defense is mostly good because they can't stop anyone in the running game. Statistically, the year before they were average against the pass.

That was my thinking, too. On the other hand, they might be good. How would you tell?I know that when the Browns played them, there was a lot of wind and no need to pass with the ground game working...

 

[cheese]

Yea, Buffalo really belongs down closer to average.

I assume you moved Cleveland up to average based on improvements in the offseason. Should we do the same for KC and/or Seattle?

Also, Pitts was pretty bad last year, but you could make a case that Troy P coming back instantly makes them at least average.

 

[David Yudkin]

Another thing to consider (which few people seem to do) is that elite defenses usually are not as good the following year. Here's how the #1 team in points allowed has done the following season in recent years:

09 PIT +101 points allowed vs 08

08 IND +36

07 BAL +183

06 CHI +53

05 PIT +7

04 NE +22

03 TB +68

02 CHI +176

01 BAL +100

00 JAX +110

99 MIA +71

98 KC +141

97 GB +72

96 KC +59

95 CLE +152

94 NYG +100

That covers the entire salary cap era. There may very well have been reasons that explained why that happened: a key defender could have gotten hurt, the team's offense could have turned the ball over more, they could have had a tougher schedule, etc. Bottom line, though, is that the elite defenses don't usually carry over from year to year. There are exceptions, and certainly this looked at only one team each year and not all of them.

 

[daveR]

Yea, Buffalo really belongs down closer to average.I assume you moved Cleveland up to average based on improvements in the offseason. Should we do the same for KC and/or Seattle?Also, Pitts was pretty bad last year, but you could make a case that Troy P coming back instantly makes them at least average.

You think BUF belongs in tier2 (VG) or tier3 (avg)?Re: PIT, they're a LOT better with Palamalu. I think "average" with him, "poor" without.Re: CLE, I'm always optimistic regarding my Browns, but statistically they were pretty average. I don't see them going backwards, but I won't advance them until I see it!

 

[daveR]

Another thing to consider (which few people seem to do) is that elite defenses usually are not as good the following year. Here's how the #1 team in points allowed has done the following season in recent years:09 PIT +101 points allowed vs 0808 IND +3607 BAL +18306 CHI +5305 PIT +704 NE +2203 TB +6802 CHI +17601 BAL +10000 JAX +11099 MIA +7198 KC +14197 GB +7296 KC +5995 CLE +15294 NYG +100That covers the entire salary cap era. There may very well have been reasons that explained why that happened: a key defender could have gotten hurt, the team's offense could have turned the ball over more, they could have had a tougher schedule, etc. Bottom line, though, is that the elite defenses don't usually carry over from year to year. There are exceptions, and certainly this looked at only one team each year and not all of them.

IMO, a lot of that is due to luck and schedule. Undoubtedly, talent plays a big role since you can't get to the top without it, but having the good fortune to escape significant injuries rarely lasts more than a season. At the same time, a team's SOS can vary bigtime due to the rotation. You can be an AFC team playing the NFC-W one year, and the NFC-E the next.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Who belongs elsewhere?Based on 2009 stats, opp qb rtg / opp comp % / sacks, 2010 personnel, here's my initial guess at Pass D tiers, best to worst.

I think you might want to try and add in more statistics into the "formula" as well... a ballhawking secondary may give up more plays and be average (e.g. going for the INT, missing, and watching a WR get a 30-40+ yard gain out of it) but they'll force more turnovers, which should be included somehow.- Interceptions: The goal of a pass defense is to stop the pass or force turnovers. This is the top goal turnover wise for a pass defense.- Pass Deflections: Another under looked tactic. A team with a high number of pass deflections either faces passing offenses more or are generally more aggressive at stopping the pass. A pass deflection means no yardage gained and forces another down for the offense.- Yard Per Pass Attempt (including Sacks): Certain players (Darrelle Revis for example) basically shutdown opposing receivers. If a team allows a lot of completions (high QB rating) but not a lot of yards or TDs, they may be a better pass defense than being given credit for.

 

[daveR]

Who belongs elsewhere?Based on 2009 stats, opp qb rtg / opp comp % / sacks, 2010 personnel, here's my initial guess at Pass D tiers, best to worst.

I think you might want to try and add in more statistics into the "formula" as well... a ballhawking secondary may give up more plays and be average (e.g. going for the INT, missing, and watching a WR get a 30-40+ yard gain out of it) but they'll force more turnovers, which should be included somehow.- Interceptions: The goal of a pass defense is to stop the pass or force turnovers. This is the top goal turnover wise for a pass defense.- Pass Deflections: Another under looked tactic. A team with a high number of pass deflections either faces passing offenses more or are generally more aggressive at stopping the pass. A pass deflection means no yardage gained and forces another down for the offense.- Yard Per Pass Attempt (including Sacks): Certain players (Darrelle Revis for example) basically shutdown opposing receivers. If a team allows a lot of completions (high QB rating) but not a lot of yards or TDs, they may be a better pass defense than being given credit for.

Good point!In truth, I did use more stats than I named. I was just trying to exemplify my method.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Another thing to consider (which few people seem to do) is that elite defenses usually are not as good the following year. Here's how the #1 team in points allowed has done the following season in recent years:09 PIT +101 points allowed vs 0808 IND +3607 BAL +18306 CHI +5305 PIT +704 NE +2203 TB +6802 CHI +17601 BAL +10000 JAX +11099 MIA +7198 KC +14197 GB +7296 KC +5995 CLE +15294 NYG +100That covers the entire salary cap era. There may very well have been reasons that explained why that happened: a key defender could have gotten hurt, the team's offense could have turned the ball over more, they could have had a tougher schedule, etc. Bottom line, though, is that the elite defenses don't usually carry over from year to year. There are exceptions, and certainly this looked at only one team each year and not all of them.

Great post David. I did a study 1-2 years back that demonstrated top defenses regress to the mean quickly, while horrible defenses take longer regressing to the mean. (purely from the perspective of fantasy points given up - so a slightly different angle - but it should correlate to a degree) It made me question anytime someone says "oh, I'm down on player X because his team's SOS looks so bad"

 

[Chase Stuart]

Another thing to consider (which few people seem to do) is that elite defenses usually are not as good the following year. Here's how the #1 team in points allowed has done the following season in recent years:09 PIT +101 points allowed vs 0808 IND +3607 BAL +18306 CHI +5305 PIT +704 NE +2203 TB +6802 CHI +17601 BAL +10000 JAX +11099 MIA +7198 KC +14197 GB +7296 KC +5995 CLE +15294 NYG +100That covers the entire salary cap era. There may very well have been reasons that explained why that happened: a key defender could have gotten hurt, the team's offense could have turned the ball over more, they could have had a tougher schedule, etc. Bottom line, though, is that the elite defenses don't usually carry over from year to year. There are exceptions, and certainly this looked at only one team each year and not all of them.

Great post David. I did a study 1-2 years back that demonstrated top defenses regress to the mean quickly, while horrible defenses take longer regressing to the mean. (purely from the perspective of fantasy points given up - so a slightly different angle - but it should correlate to a degree) It made me question anytime someone says "oh, I'm down on player X because his team's SOS looks so bad"

Did you do the same thing for offense?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Another thing to consider (which few people seem to do) is that elite defenses usually are not as good the following year. Here's how the #1 team in points allowed has done the following season in recent years:09 PIT +101 points allowed vs 0808 IND +3607 BAL +18306 CHI +5305 PIT +704 NE +2203 TB +6802 CHI +17601 BAL +10000 JAX +11099 MIA +7198 KC +14197 GB +7296 KC +5995 CLE +15294 NYG +100That covers the entire salary cap era. There may very well have been reasons that explained why that happened: a key defender could have gotten hurt, the team's offense could have turned the ball over more, they could have had a tougher schedule, etc. Bottom line, though, is that the elite defenses don't usually carry over from year to year. There are exceptions, and certainly this looked at only one team each year and not all of them.

Great post David. I did a study 1-2 years back that demonstrated top defenses regress to the mean quickly, while horrible defenses take longer regressing to the mean. (purely from the perspective of fantasy points given up - so a slightly different angle - but it should correlate to a degree) It made me question anytime someone says "oh, I'm down on player X because his team's SOS looks so bad"

Did you do the same thing for offense?

Unfortunately no, I was too lazy. Wouldn't be that difficult though.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Drayton Florence and Terrence McGee are very under-rated. Both shutdown WR's well before Jairus Byrd went on his INT spree. The Bills run DST was awful but it was because they gave up one 70 yard run a game.