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Help with Pick (1 Viewer)

jmble

Footballguy
I'm in the middle of an Email draft for a Superflex League that starts 2 regular Flexes and 1 Superflex.

I had the first pick. So far I've gone Allen, Mixon, Lamb.

I'm coming up soon in the fourth round and Quarterbacks have flown off due to the Superflex.

My options for a second QB are already down to Lawrence/Tua/Winston/Wentz/Goff/Jones/Wilson/Tannehill/Mayfield/Ryan and a few others.

As much as I hate to use a pick this high on one of these guys, I feel like it's a necessity to take one of them along with the best available offensive player on the turnaround pick.

Passing TDs are worth 4 points if it makes a difference. I feel like Lawrence has the highest upside potential. Tua and Wentz feel the safest for a Floor.

There are still a couple picks to go, so this decision might get made easier for me if a couple of these guys go, but who would you lean toward?
 
I would break the QB's left into tiers and figure out if I would be ok missing out on the higher tier guys if they don't make it back. Secondly, I would want to know if QB scoring mandates playing a QB in the SF spot. Check the last couple years of total scoring and see how many QB's are in the top 50 (or 100) and see how they are grouped. If they are not bunched at the top to the point that point wise it isn't mandatory to start a QB in the SF then I would be less inclined to force a QB here.

I would tier them like this:
  1. Lawrence, Tua, Winston, Tannehill, Baker, Ryan
  2. Goff, Wentz
  3. Jones, Wilson
For me I wouldn't care who of the tier 1 guys I got but I want to make sure I get one of them. If things go bad and I have to go with Tier 2 I can live with it if the players I am taking instead of the Tier 1 guy right now is worth it. Don't get stuck with a Tier 3 guy.
 
I been taking Tua later in non super flex leagues after i load up on RB and WR. With those WRs, he cant be bad, can he? I dont think he will be bad.
 

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