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Hillary vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hillary Loses badly (1 Viewer)

squistion said:
Clifford said:
timschochet said:
Regarding gay marriage, polls show that black opinion has changed dramatically on this issue since 2004. If it once could be used as a wedge issue, no longer.
link?
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/28/17503314-surprising-shifts-in-attitudes-on-same-sex-marriage?lite

Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage

It's not just Democrats and liberals who are the reason for the shift on gay marriage.

Beneath the broad support from liberal-leaning demographic groups, is the fact that some of the biggest shifts in favor of gay marriage since 2004 have been from some more unlikely, conservative-leaning blocs -- blue-collar workers, older voters, and Southerners, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last decade...

There has also been a big difference in support from the parties since Obama took office. Since 2009, Democratic support has gone up 27 points, independents 16, and Republicans just 12.

A major reason for the continued significant shift among Democrats is because of black voters. African Americans increased their support since Obama’s been president by 35 points.
And when he's not President? I doubt that holds. My guess is it goes back to where it was.
Second that.
I don't see why. Are you guys suggesting that they changed their minds simply out of loyalty to Obama? That seems really silly (also, rather insulting to black people.)
Well what was the number before Biden prodded Obama into announcing his support, vs what was it after?

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
timschochet said:
But in any case, nobody has yet mentioned the main reason the Democrats, whoever they put up, are a lock to win in 2016: immigration reform. The GOP leadership knew this. They've been warning for years that they had to do something about it. But once again the Tea Party and the House Republicans have managed to kill it. They simply will not accept any sort of path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

As a result, Latino voters are more pissed off and energized than ever before. And their vote, unlike those of blacks, is crucial in almost all of the swing states. Given this, a Republican victory seems extremely unlikely IMO.
I have no idea if he has the chops, but I do think if he's legit that Rubio provides some serious potential for the GOP on that score and the hispanic vote.
I used to think Rubio had a chance to do this. Now I think it will just cause resentment, the way blacks respond to black Republican candidates.

The shift among Latinos is here to stay at least for the time being. If Republicans want to get it back, they have to agree to immigration reform (in order to get it off the table) and then win them back over time. Latinos tend to be naturally a conservative group- if it wasn't for immigration reform, I believe many of them would be naturals for the Republican party.

 
squistion said:
Clifford said:
timschochet said:
Regarding gay marriage, polls show that black opinion has changed dramatically on this issue since 2004. If it once could be used as a wedge issue, no longer.
link?
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/28/17503314-surprising-shifts-in-attitudes-on-same-sex-marriage?lite

Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage

It's not just Democrats and liberals who are the reason for the shift on gay marriage.

Beneath the broad support from liberal-leaning demographic groups, is the fact that some of the biggest shifts in favor of gay marriage since 2004 have been from some more unlikely, conservative-leaning blocs -- blue-collar workers, older voters, and Southerners, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last decade...

There has also been a big difference in support from the parties since Obama took office. Since 2009, Democratic support has gone up 27 points, independents 16, and Republicans just 12.

A major reason for the continued significant shift among Democrats is because of black voters. African Americans increased their support since Obama’s been president by 35 points.
And when he's not President? I doubt that holds. My guess is it goes back to where it was.
Second that.
I don't see why. Are you guys suggesting that they changed their minds simply out of loyalty to Obama? That seems really silly (also, rather insulting to black people.)
Well what was the number before Biden prodded Obama into announcing his support, vs what was it after?
I have no idea. I also don't really buy into the Biden thing.

The nation has changed its views on gay marriage faster than anyone could have imagined. Obama followed the tide; he didn't initiate it.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
timschochet said:
But in any case, nobody has yet mentioned the main reason the Democrats, whoever they put up, are a lock to win in 2016: immigration reform. The GOP leadership knew this. They've been warning for years that they had to do something about it. But once again the Tea Party and the House Republicans have managed to kill it. They simply will not accept any sort of path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

As a result, Latino voters are more pissed off and energized than ever before. And their vote, unlike those of blacks, is crucial in almost all of the swing states. Given this, a Republican victory seems extremely unlikely IMO.
I have no idea if he has the chops, but I do think if he's legit that Rubio provides some serious potential for the GOP on that score and the hispanic vote.
I used to think Rubio had a chance to do this. Now I think it will just cause resentment, the way blacks respond to black Republican candidates.

The shift among Latinos is here to stay at least for the time being. If Republicans want to get it back, they have to agree to immigration reform (in order to get it off the table) and then win them back over time. Latinos tend to be naturally a conservative group- if it wasn't for immigration reform, I believe many of them would be naturals for the Republican party.
Well pre Obama - who is not a traditional black candidate - there never had been a reasonably electable black Democrat or GOP national candidate.

Rubio has an actual immigration reform law, ie a bill, that he's been pushing for years while Obama just has a limited EO that he seemed to make up on the spot. If that's the difference, acknowledging the conservative base a you mention, then he could swing that.

 
squistion said:
Clifford said:
timschochet said:
Regarding gay marriage, polls show that black opinion has changed dramatically on this issue since 2004. If it once could be used as a wedge issue, no longer.
link?
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/28/17503314-surprising-shifts-in-attitudes-on-same-sex-marriage?lite

Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage

It's not just Democrats and liberals who are the reason for the shift on gay marriage.

Beneath the broad support from liberal-leaning demographic groups, is the fact that some of the biggest shifts in favor of gay marriage since 2004 have been from some more unlikely, conservative-leaning blocs -- blue-collar workers, older voters, and Southerners, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last decade...

There has also been a big difference in support from the parties since Obama took office. Since 2009, Democratic support has gone up 27 points, independents 16, and Republicans just 12.

A major reason for the continued significant shift among Democrats is because of black voters. African Americans increased their support since Obama’s been president by 35 points.
And when he's not President? I doubt that holds. My guess is it goes back to where it was.
Second that.
I don't see why. Are you guys suggesting that they changed their minds simply out of loyalty to Obama? That seems really silly (also, rather insulting to black people.)
Well what was the number before Biden prodded Obama into announcing his support, vs what was it after?
I have no idea. I also don't really buy into the Biden thing.

The nation has changed its views on gay marriage faster than anyone could have imagined. Obama followed the tide; he didn't initiate it.
Some states in the nation yes, many have not.

The black vote on this was definitely ebbing against the tide - until Obama gave his approval. - Btw my initial impression was the same as yours, maybe blacks are part of a national trend, but I do think I recall polling on this.

 
squistion said:
Clifford said:
timschochet said:
Regarding gay marriage, polls show that black opinion has changed dramatically on this issue since 2004. If it once could be used as a wedge issue, no longer.
link?
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/28/17503314-surprising-shifts-in-attitudes-on-same-sex-marriage?lite

Surprising shifts in attitudes on same-sex marriage

It's not just Democrats and liberals who are the reason for the shift on gay marriage.

Beneath the broad support from liberal-leaning demographic groups, is the fact that some of the biggest shifts in favor of gay marriage since 2004 have been from some more unlikely, conservative-leaning blocs -- blue-collar workers, older voters, and Southerners, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last decade...

There has also been a big difference in support from the parties since Obama took office. Since 2009, Democratic support has gone up 27 points, independents 16, and Republicans just 12.

A major reason for the continued significant shift among Democrats is because of black voters. African Americans increased their support since Obama’s been president by 35 points.
And when he's not President? I doubt that holds. My guess is it goes back to where it was.
Second that.
I don't see why. Are you guys suggesting that they changed their minds simply out of loyalty to Obama? That seems really silly (also, rather insulting to black people.)
Well what was the number before Biden prodded Obama into announcing his support, vs what was it after?
I have no idea. I also don't really buy into the Biden thing.

The nation has changed its views on gay marriage faster than anyone could have imagined. Obama followed the tide; he didn't initiate it.
Tim, there were others polls similar to this one, but this was from MD, where the law did indeed pass:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support

for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s

historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state’s new law

legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are

some key findings:

...

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major

shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they

would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers

have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote

for the law and only 36% now opposed.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/MarylandPollingMemo.pdf

 
That's significant. But it still doesn't mean they will change back once he leaves office.
That may be true.

Of course this wedge issue thing is a flip of a coin now; GOP used to use it get conservatives to the polls, now Dems use it for the same reason or to switch votes.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hillary won't even get the Democrat nomination.
Looking more likely that she will if she runs:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-2016-hillary-clinton-has-commanding-lead-over-democrats-gop-race-wide-open/2014/01/29/188bb3f4-8904-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html?hpid=z1

For 2016, Hillary Clinton has commanding lead over Democrats, GOP race wide open

Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a commanding 6 to 1 lead over other Democrats heading into the 2016 presidential campaign, while the Republican field is deeply divided with no clear front-runner, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Clinton trounces her potential primary rivals with 73 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, reinforcing a narrative of inevitability around her nomination if she runs. Vice President Biden is second with 12 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) is third with 8 percent.

Although Clinton’s favorability rating has fallen since she stepped down as secretary of state a year ago, she has broad Democratic support across ideological, gender, ethnic and class lines. Her lead is the largest recorded in an early primary matchup in at least 30 years of Post-ABC polling.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Some other possible titles for this thread:

Hillary vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Clinton!

Joe Biden vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Biden!

Bozo the Clown vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Clown!

 
Here's a chance for Republicans to show they're not at war with women.

Women's rights activist Sandra Fluke has filed paperwork with the California Democratic Party to seek the party's endorsement to run for Congress. The seat that will be vacant following Rep. Henry Waxman's retirement at the end of the year.
Fluke became a nationally known advocate for women's rights after conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh called her "a slut" for asking the federal government to pay for her contraception during a Congressional hearing in 2012. She also spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention.
 
Another GOP appeal to win more votes from women.

A tea party activist, attorney and former executive director of South Carolina's Republican Party went on a spree of sexist attacks on Texas gubernatorial candidate and state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) last week.
Todd Kincannon @Todd__Kincannon

The best thing about the Wendy Davis fiasco is this: It proves that you can still call a whore a whore. Feminazis ain't won yet, my friends.
Todd Kincannon @Todd__Kincannon

"In other news, Wendy Davis took a short break from blowing 'campaign contributors' today to condemn remarks made by Mike Huckabee..."
 
Another GOP appeal to win more votes from women.

A tea party activist, attorney and former executive director of South Carolina's Republican Party went on a spree of sexist attacks on Texas gubernatorial candidate and state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) last week.
Todd Kincannon @Todd__Kincannon

The best thing about the Wendy Davis fiasco is this: It proves that you can still call a whore a whore. Feminazis ain't won yet, my friends.
Todd Kincannon @Todd__Kincannon

"In other news, Wendy Davis took a short break from blowing 'campaign contributors' today to condemn remarks made by Mike Huckabee..."
To be fair, Kincannon admits to blatant fishing with his tweets and it appears that Repubs are distancing themselves appropriately. But, still, that's awful stuff to say and won't help the party with whom he remains identified.

 
Some other possible titles for this thread:

Hillary vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Clinton!

Joe Biden vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Biden!

Bozo the Clown vs __________(insert name here) 2016: Hello President Clown!
scenario 3 is the best of those options

 

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