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History of the fourth QB drafted since 2000 (1 Viewer)

kutta

Footballguy
I heard on a podcast about how dismal the fourth QB taken in NFL drafts has been, so I gathered some data and wow, it sure is interesting. 

This is for entertainment purposes only, as I completely understand what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen this year, but it's pretty startling to see.

2021 - Justin Fields

2020 - Jordan Love

2019 - Drew Lock

2018 - Josh Rosen

2017 - DeShone Kizer

2016 - Christian Hackenberg

2015 - Sean Mannion

2014 - Derek Carr

2013 - Matt Barkley

2012 - Brandon Weeden

2011 - Christian Ponder

2010 - Colt McCoy

2009 - Pat White

2008 - Chad Henne

2007 - John Beck

2006 - Kellen Clemens

2005 - Charlie Frye

2004 - J.P. Losman

2003 - Rex Grossman

2002 - Josh McCown

2001 - Marques Tuiasosopo

2000 - Tee Martin

I mean, what the heck? What a ridiculous list.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
This gets into a draft capital vs ordinal debate? What is more significant that Fields was the 4th QB or that he was the 11th pick in the draft? Are we excited about Michael Carter because he was the 5th RB taken or worried because he was a 4th round pick?

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
History of the 11th pick in the NFL Draft

2021- Justin Fields

2020- Mekhi Becton

2019- Jonah Williams

2018- Minkah Fitzpatrick 

2017- Marshon Lattimore

2016- Vernon Haregraves

2015- Trae Waynes

2014- Taylor Lewan

2013- DJ Fluker 

2012- Dontari Poe

2011- JJ Watt

2010- Anthony Davis

2009- Aaron Maybin

2008- Leodis McKelvin

2007- Patrick Willis

2006- Jay Cutler

2005- Demarcus Ware

2004- Big Ben

2003- Marcus Trufant

2002- Dwight Freeney

2001- Dan Morgan

2000- Ron Dayne 

Pretty freaking loaded list right here. 

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Based on random variation in the strength of different draft classes, you'd expect there to be 4+ "two per year" caliber QBs in the same draft class once every 7 years. The breakdown is

13.5% of the time you get zero
27.1% of the time you get one
27.1% of the time you get two
18.1% of the time you get three
9.0% of the time you get four
3.6% of the time you get five
1.6% of the time you get six or more

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
By comparison, the 5th QB selected has been feast or famine . . . not many guys in the middle.
 

Code:
2021	1	15	15	Mac Jones	Patriots	Alabama
2020	2	21	53	Jalen Hurts	Eagles		Oklahoma
2019	3	36	100	Will Grier	Panthers	West Virginia
2018	1	32	32	Lamar Jackson	Ravens		Louisville
2017	3	23	87	Davis Webb	Giants		California
2016	3	29	91	Jacoby Brissett	Patriots	North Carolina State
2015	4	4	103	Bryce Petty	Jets		Baylor
2014	2	30	62	Jimmy Garoppolo	Patriots	Eastern Illinois
2013	4	13	110	Ryan Nassib	Giants		Syracuse
2012	2	25	57	Brock Osweiler	Broncos		Arizona State
2011	2	3	35	Andy Dalton	Bengals		Texas Christian
2010	4	24	122	Mike Kafka	Eagles		Northwestern
2009	4	1	101	Stephen McGee	Cowboys		Texas A&M
2008	3	31	94	Kevin O'Connell	Patriots	San Diego State
2007	2	11	43	Drew Stanton	Lions		Michigan State
2006	2	32	64	Tarvaris JacksonVikings		Alabama State
2005	3	5	69	Andrew Walter	Raiders		Arizona State
2004	3	27	90	Matt Schaub	Falcons		Virginia
2003	3	24	88	Dave Ragone	Texans		Louisville
2002	4	10	108	David Garrard	Jaguars		East Carolina
2001	4	11	106	Chris Weinke	Panthers	Florida State
2000	6	2	168	Marc Bulger	Saints		West Virginia
 

kutta

Footballguy
By comparison, the 5th QB selected has been feast or famine . . . not many guys in the middle.
 

2021 1 15 15 Mac Jones Patriots Alabama
2020 2 21 53 Jalen Hurts Eagles Oklahoma
2019 3 36 100 Will Grier Panthers West Virginia
2018 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017 3 23 87 Davis Webb Giants California
2016 3 29 91 Jacoby Brissett Patriots North Carolina State
2015 4 4 103 Bryce Petty Jets Baylor
2014 2 30 62 Jimmy Garoppolo Patriots Eastern Illinois
2013 4 13 110 Ryan Nassib Giants Syracuse
2012 2 25 57 Brock Osweiler Broncos Arizona State
2011 2 3 35 Andy Dalton Bengals Texas Christian
2010 4 24 122 Mike Kafka Eagles Northwestern
2009 4 1 101 Stephen McGee Cowboys Texas A&M
2008 3 31 94 Kevin O'Connell Patriots San Diego State
2007 2 11 43 Drew Stanton Lions Michigan State
2006 2 32 64 Tarvaris JacksonVikings Alabama State
2005 3 5 69 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State
2004 3 27 90 Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia
2003 3 24 88 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
2002 4 10 108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
2001 4 11 106 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State
2000 6 2 168 Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia

Amazing how much better that list is. Heck there's 7 guys on that list that could make the top 8 of the other list.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
6 spot since 2010...

-Russell Okung...2x Pro Bowl, 1 SB

-Julio Jones...HoF candidate and All Pro

-Morris Claiborne...not so good but did get a ring with KC

-Barkevious Mingo...who? Has a SB ring from 2016

-Jake Mathews...1 Pro Bowl

-Leonard Williams, rough start but 11.5 sacks with NYG last year

-Ronnie Stanley, All Pro in 2019

-Jamal Adams. All Pro 

-Quenton Nelson, 3 seasons and 3x All Pro

-Daniel Jones, meh

-Justin Herbert, 2020 Off RotY

Who picked 6th this year?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Saw this one today which is at first a shocking statistic. In the free agency era (starting in 1994), all the QBs drafted in the sixth round have a higher winning percentage than all the QBs drafted in the first round. 

 

foxco

Footballguy
6 spot since 2010...

-Russell Okung...2x Pro Bowl, 1 SB

-Julio Jones...HoF candidate and All Pro

-Morris Claiborne...not so good but did get a ring with KC

-Barkevious Mingo...who? Has a SB ring from 2016

-Jake Mathews...1 Pro Bowl

-Leonard Williams, rough start but 11.5 sacks with NYG last year

-Ronnie Stanley, All Pro in 2019

-Jamal Adams. All Pro 

-Quenton Nelson, 3 seasons and 3x All Pro

-Daniel Jones, meh

-Justin Herbert, 2020 Off RotY

Who picked 6th this year?
I thought you hated the 6th pick, now you're touting it as a recipe for success!!

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Saw this one today which is at first a shocking statistic. In the free agency era (starting in 1994), all the QBs drafted in the sixth round have a higher winning percentage than all the QBs drafted in the first round. 
Gee, I wonder why.

 

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