Holcomb plus Chester Taylor means AD will... (1 Viewer)

[gheemony]

I have to say that I am little surprised by the FBG projections for Adrian Peterson this week. I was debating whether to start him or Benson, but the FBG projections say that should be an easy choice. Without getting into the Benson-hate, I don't see why Peterson will be able to match or beat his Week 2 numbers.

Part of his value has been the dump off passes from Jackson. I think this comes from Jackson's lack of understanding of NFL defenses, so he quickly goes to the outlet. Look how many passes were to RBs last week. I think Holcomb, while a journeyman, will actually read progressions and get more balls to the WRs. That means less passes for the RBs.

Second, he benefitted from Taylor being out. Yes, Moore did play a role in the offense in week 2. But I don't think it's the same role that Taylor would have played. Assuming Taylor is back this week, he'll get a few more carries. And I suspect, Moore will still get some touches as well. So, overall, AD's carries/touches should be down.

To me that puts Peterson in the low RB2 range for the week. Is that really any better than a player like Benson, who is averaging 20 carries a week?

The argument to choose Peterson is the "home run" threat. Meaning that he can score from any where, while Benson has looked like a plodder. But after two weeks, AD has one spectacular 60-yard TD catch against a feeble ATL defense. No other scores.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't start him, but I am saying that it's not as clear cut as saying that he's a week RB1 or a strong RB2.

Thoughts?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

It means that Chili will get confused putting the gameplan together and AD will only see about 7-10 touches the whole game. That means he could have anything between 20 yds and no TD to 80 yds and a score.

 

[Crusaderfan]

Maybe with Holcomb being able to throw the ball down field it will mean that when ADP gets a handoff - he won't be facing an 8-man front? I think having even a marginal starting Pro QB like Holcomb, can only help the MINN offense and ADP.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Since when has Kelly Holcomb ever been willing/able to throw the ball down the field? He has a career completion percentage of 64.6%, but just 10.3 yards per completion. Those are the numbers of a dumpoff specialist.

I think Holcomb still throws to the RBs a lot (good for Peterson), but also improves the overall efficiency of the offense (also good for Peterson).

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Chester is lookin kinda iffy for this weekend.

 

[packersfan]

Chester is lookin kinda iffy for this weekend.

Agreed but I don't think there's much of a drop-off to Mewelde Moore. He's a pretty good RB and certainly good as a third-down RB. After Peterson and Taylor, I'd say he's easily the third-best skill-position player on the roster and I don't think it's really all that close. So if Taylor doesn't play I wouldn't expect the Vikings running game to suffer at all from a depth perspective. The hope for Peterson owners is that Holcomb can at least be decent enough to prevent the Chiefs from selling out against the run. But even if the Chiefs load up to stop the run (which they should), in a PPR league Peterson should still have plenty of value since the Vikings would be smart to target Peterson (and Moore) heavily in the passing game.

 

[mt99808]

I'm having the same problem but I have Portis/AP with LT. I was leaning towards Portis until these cheatsheets.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Chester is lookin kinda iffy for this weekend.

Agreed but I don't think there's much of a drop-off to Mewelde Moore. He's a pretty good RB and certainly good as a third-down RB. After Peterson and Taylor, I'd say he's easily the third-best skill-position player on the roster and I don't think it's really all that close. So if Taylor doesn't play I wouldn't expect the Vikings running game to suffer at all from a depth perspective. The hope for Peterson owners is that Holcomb can at least be decent enough to prevent the Chiefs from selling out against the run. But even if the Chiefs load up to stop the run (which they should), in a PPR league Peterson should still have plenty of value since the Vikings would be smart to target Peterson (and Moore) heavily in the passing game.

And he's a FA after the season :dynasty sleeper:!

 

[OU#1]

Easy choice for me: AD

But all I have is a bunch of cuffs and KJ at RB so it's not much of a decision.

I honestly don't mind CT or MM cutting into his time. Fresh AD = Plus it's only a matter of time before Chili realizes that AD can actually run ALL DAY. He's always posted his best stats in the 2nd half as D's get tired. Once Chili sees that we'll see less and less of CT.

I think if AD is healthy he is in the must start category-especially if he's your RB2/Flex. It's not the number of touches...it's what he does with those touches. As long as whoever is playing QB can keep from turning over the ball then AD will post strong RB2 numbers. Hopefully MIN doesn't abandon the run as much as I've seen in the past...Just because you got stuffed on 1st (2nd and 10) doesn't mean you need to pass. Keep pounding ADP-he can get you the first or wost case you have a manageable 3rd. Plus every touch he can go yard...he's as fast as Calvin Johnson for gods sake.

 

[Texican]

I think this is AP's chance to keep Chester off the field. If he "stumbles" I think Chester will have a greater role going forward. If he takes over the game, then Chester takes more of a backseat.

 

[Raider Nation]

Long term (this year), Holcomb is the QB on the roster who has the best chance of keeping defenses from putting 8 in the box on every play. If you own A-Pete, which I do, he is the guy you want to start. However, we have a catch-22 here. I get the feeling that this week is Holcomb's one shot at starting. If he does well, look for him to start for awhile longer. If he doesn't fare well, Childress will figure he has nothing to lose by letting his pet project reclaim the starting job.

The problem for Holcomb, as I see it, is that he's walking into a hornets nest in Arrowhead. I don't see Minnesota scoring ANY offensive TDs.

 

[thecardiackid]

Long term (this year), Holcomb is the QB on the roster who has the best chance of keeping defenses from putting 8 in the box on every play. If you own A-Pete, which I do, he is the guy you want to start. However, we have a catch-22 here. I get the feeling that this week is Holcomb's one shot at starting. If he does well, look for him to start for awhile longer. If he doesn't fare well, Childress will figure he has nothing to lose by letting his pet project reclaim the starting job.

The problem for Holcomb, as I see it, is that he's walking into a hornets nest in Arrowhead. I don't see Minnesota scoring ANY offensive TDs.

Add in the fact that he's had a whole 2-3 weeks to learn the new system, play callling, players, etc. Going into Arrowhead is less than ideal for a first (green) start for a journeyman QB w/ less than average WRs available to bail him out. AD and MM are likely going to be busy catching short dump offs all day. And I see much more running vs. passing for the reasons above. Maybe part of the system is similar to PHI w/ Childress coming from there, but he only had TC w/ the Eagles IIRC.

 

[SleepyPaco]

Jackson turned the ball over 4 times last week and vultured Peterson on the goal-line TD. I can't imagine that Holcomb will do as much damage to Peterson's fantasy output. Moore vs. Taylor is pretty much a wash as far as how many touches they're going to get. KC's offense is not very good and also prone to the turnover, so Minny should benefit from the short field at least a couple of times.

 

[JAMMIN]

How do you keep your best offensive player off the field? Also why would you want to.

Chester Taylor is a serviceable back but AP is a game breaker. I remember his first year of college if he would have been able to enter the NFL he may have been the #1 overall pick. The only issue with AP is he likes to run guys over a little to often and that is going to get him hurt.

 

[FFdork]

If Chester is healthy enough to play I don't really see this as a big negative for Peterson. As it currently stands those are the Viking two best offensive players, and I would expect them to get them both involved in the game. Especially if they will use formations that get them both on the field, having any sort of legitimate threat besides AD can only help when he touches the ball.

If Holcomb does anything throwing the ball (I would expect at least a slight improvement over Jackson), that helps too.

Anyone with eyeballs (I'm going to reluctantly include Chilly in this category) can see getting AD 15-20 touches is their best chance of winning right now, so really it's a matter of what the team around him can do to improve his chances of success when he does get the ball.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

If Chester is healthy enough to play I don't really see this as a big negative for Peterson. As it currently stands those are the Viking two best offensive players excluding linemen

fixed

 

[FFdork]

If Chester is healthy enough to play I don't really see this as a big negative for Peterson. As it currently stands those are the Viking two best offensive players excluding linemen

fixed

Right, I should have said at the skill positions.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The problem for Holcomb, as I see it, is that he's walking into a hornets nest in Arrowhead. I don't see Minnesota scoring ANY offensive TDs.

That will be one angry KC team.