Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Houston @ New England Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter pizzatyme
- Start date
David Yudkin
Footballguy
While I think NE will win, I will continue to caution people that the outcome of an earlier game has no bearing on the next game (yet that will always serve to sway people into thinking the outcome will be the same). I don't see the Pats winning by 30 points.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Totally agree with you. Maybe not a 30 point game, but I bet we will be looking at a 14+ margin of victory.devouredbychaos
Footballguy
As a Pats fan, I sure hope so.
Ray Hueston
Footballguy
That line seems high to me, as a Pat's fan I'm not sure I would lay that many points. I will probably look to tease it with the O/U.
Jayded
Footballguy
As a Texans fan, my counter would be the following. This team was a mess headed down the stretch. I wondered out loud to friends if the third seed was a hidden blessing for this team. Getting a bye, we might have seen the Bengals type performance against whomever would have been traveling to Houston this coming week.
While the game yesterday was by no means the same team that went to NE 11-1, the car started to point back in the direction it should be going.
I think we'll find out early if we have a game on our hands. If the Texans can run the ball with any kind of consistency in the first quarter, it'll be a close game. I think the defense will play a little better but I fully expect a long play or two to burn the Texans like teams have been doing as of late. The Texans don't need to control TOP like they did against the Bengals, but they must score TDs where they settled for FG this week.
While the game yesterday was by no means the same team that went to NE 11-1, the car started to point back in the direction it should be going.
I think we'll find out early if we have a game on our hands. If the Texans can run the ball with any kind of consistency in the first quarter, it'll be a close game. I think the defense will play a little better but I fully expect a long play or two to burn the Texans like teams have been doing as of late. The Texans don't need to control TOP like they did against the Bengals, but they must score TDs where they settled for FG this week.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I've seen it all too often with the Pats. They score twice early, take the air out of Foster's tires, then put the onus on Schaub to keep pace with Brady.
My prediction by quarter:
1 Pats 14-3
2 Pats 24-9
3 Pats 38-15
4 Pats 45-15
Probably way off, but I'm calling my shot.
My prediction by quarter:
1 Pats 14-3
2 Pats 24-9
3 Pats 38-15
4 Pats 45-15
Probably way off, but I'm calling my shot.
Last edited by a moderator:
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
I really don't see another blowout happening. Maybe I'm just having nightmares of 2010 when we blew out the Jets in the same fashion in December. Everyone was saying it would be another blowout in the Divisional game and we got stomped.
firstseason1988
Footballguy
As an Oiler fan with no emotional ties to the Texans. They look pathetic, except maybe Watt and Foster. New England utilizes their bye weeks better than anyone and come out strong. If the line is -9.5, I am betting the house on New England and would also bet it moves closer to -14 before week's end.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Seems like there is a slight difference between the 2010 Jets and the 2012 Pats.
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
line opened at -9 up to -10 at 1 offshore site
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Very true..lol'pizzatyme said:Seems like there is a slight difference between the 2010 Jets and the 2012 Pats.'devouredbychaos said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
People just don't get it. If a baseball team won the first game of a series 22-1, most people are smart enough to understand that the game the next night is not going to be 22-1 again.Yet in football there are TONS of people that point to a blow out first game and expect a blow out the next game. To which I ask . . . WHY?So I agree in principle that the predictive value is there that the Pats were the better team last time and they should be favored this time around, but IMO the chances of another mauling are not that great.I don't have the time or the desire to research it, but I would be interested to hear the last time a team beat a playoff team twice in the same season (regular or post season) by at least 28 points in each game.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Did they change starting pitchers for the 2nd game of the series?If it's mostly the same parts, one tends to think it's likely to happen again in a football game.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
OK, use basketball instead. Same teams, same players, same venue, same post season series. One team wins by 40. How often does the same team win by 40 the next game? Not very often.In any sport, each game is different. The Texans will make adjustments. They will have different schemes. Balls will bounce differently. Refs will call different penalties. In blow out games between two top teams, normally one team is firing on all cylinders while the other can't do anything right. The likelihood that things play out the same in the rematch is remote.IMO, there's more of a chance of a blow out game in a rematch when the first game was close. But maybe that's just me.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
No other sport is like football in that regard. NFL has many moving parts. I'd take a Brady-led offense that has blown a team out previously that year, to do the same when they meet again. We can agree to disagree.
Now, if it looked like NE was now playing like crap and Houston was getting healthy, then my prediction would have changed. However, that's not the case.
Blowout by 14+ IMO
Now, if it looked like NE was now playing like crap and Houston was getting healthy, then my prediction would have changed. However, that's not the case.
Blowout by 14+ IMO
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Still waiting for an example of a team blowing out a playoff team twice in the same season.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Ah, now they have to be a playoff team?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I said that the first time, too.
I just dont see how an example is necessarily relevant. We see new things happen all the time in sports. Furthermore, any example wouldnt be these two particular teams. I agree with you to an extent that a blowout ahould not predict a blowout, but an example to the contrary would not be my arguement. I still think the Pats could cover the number if it hovers around 9 or 10. The holes the patriots exposed in the texan defense are still there. Andy Dalton just couldnt expose them.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Well see if weather can make a dent in this game.. A whole lot of foster, maybe a bu play by 80, and jjj can keep this close u never know...
coolnerd
Footballguy
The biggest reason houston is still a large dog here is not because of the one game, but because the one game has shown to be reflective of the direction Houston was headed. If houston had played well after that then we could write it off as just a game.
Last edited by a moderator:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Houston is a shell of what they were. Thought Schaub looked horrible. Pats will destroy 'em. Book it.'David Yudkin said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'll save you the trouble of an example. Last year, the Pats destoyed the Broncos twice. However, a case could be made that a Tebow-led team is not exactly the same as a more well rounded team like the Texans (8-8 is quite a bit different than 12-4).I still say that Houston's coaching staff will retool what they did last time and do things a lot differently. Maybe the new plan will bust like the last one did. But that's why they play the games.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Yep, that's what I said in my original post.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Houston has been struggling for a month and it starts with Schaub. Whether he's in a bad funk and/or hurt, he hasn't been right in a while. With rest, time to prepare and home field, I fully expect NE to win easily.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
yeah, any given Sunday... but. Houston doesn't match up well with NE: Foster, Owens, Foster, Owens, Foster, Foster, Owens... Wilfork is a big problem for them. None of this means anything at this point but they came within one play of being beaten by a Bengals team that played horribly. They also played poorly and their coach is too conservative. They better open it up big time or they will get smoked.
I won't be shocked if one of the afc heavily favored teams lost outright this weekend....bmore is riding the ray rave, Houston got dismantled by NE...you don't think they thought about that whipping every day since? I know pros should be pros everyday, but their not (see NE struggling with jax 2 games ago). Houston will be "a bit more focused" this week...out of fear if not anything else....remember what rocky said about fear
BlueBlazer05
Footballguy
The Lions got smoked by the Redskins in the regular season and the NFC championship game, but that was way back in 1991.
The 1999 Jaguars lost twice in the regular season and also in the AFC championship game...all three losses at the hands of the Titans. The first game was close, but the other two were blowouts.
The 1999 Jaguars lost twice in the regular season and also in the AFC championship game...all three losses at the hands of the Titans. The first game was close, but the other two were blowouts.
The only positive I can think of for my Texans would be that we've got a lot of tape to watch on New England from our game earlier. Hopefully, they've got nothing to take away on us from that game because we will have completely thrown that game plan out the window and are starting from scratch. If Kubiak comes out with the same conservative crap game plan as he did last time then I wouldn't be sad if we Shottenheimered him.
I guess there is one more positive - our defense looked alive for the first time in a while. If we play next week like we did this week then we hold NE to less than 30 (provided Schaub doesn't throw a pick 6). If we can't score 30 points against NE then we don't deserve to win.
I guess there is one more positive - our defense looked alive for the first time in a while. If we play next week like we did this week then we hold NE to less than 30 (provided Schaub doesn't throw a pick 6). If we can't score 30 points against NE then we don't deserve to win.
LuckyOne
Footballguy
Dec 6, 2010 (Week 13) The Patriots embarrassed The Jets 45-3 and were rollingJan 16, 2011 (Divisional round) The 11-5 Jets upset the 14-2 Patriots 28-21. The Jets lost 3 of their final 5 that season, including the 45-3 loss to the Patriots. The Jets seemed to be slipping an awful lot like The Texans did at the end of this season.Both teams have a lot of talent. The 9.5 points seems excessive. I think the Pats will win, but I won't be surprised if The Texans upset. In fact, I think all 8 teams left are all talented and won't be surprised to see any upsets this weekend.Note: Edited for accuracy'David Yudkin said:
Last edited by a moderator:
firstseason1988
Footballguy
I disagree, like someone said above, Cincy didn't play well at all and AJ Green was wide open twice to go ahead late in the game and Dalton made terrible throws. Brady has more weapons and is about 4 tiers above Dalton, at home against a struggling Texan team. I hope I am wrong, I would love the Texans to win this. I just see them playing it close.
Ray Hueston
Footballguy
What do does the tape of the previous game do for the Texans? The Pats will have Gronk for this game so their offense will be very different.
I absolutely think it is that high.I know opinions vary on the predictive powers of DVOA but, by that measure, the Ravens and Texans at #8 and #11 respectively are the AFC's two highest-rated teams after DEN (#2) and NE (#3). On a weighted DVOA basis it looks even worse (the Texans rank #19).
The Texans may be the AFC's 3-seed, but IMO there are probably a half-dozen NFC teams against whom the Pats would be favored by less than 9.5 if they were playing this weekend - certainly their 4 remaining playoff teams, almost certainly CHI, probably NYG. Even WAS with a healthy RG3 might not be a 9.5-point dog. That tells you how Vegas views the quality of the AFC competition after the two big boys.
CentralPA
Footballguy
Didn't Dallas destroy the Eagles the last game of the regular season and then the very next week put another beat down on them in the Wildcard round? Might've been 2009 or 2010. I forget what the point totals were but I can remember them being high for Dallas.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
2009. Won 24-0 and then 34-14. Still not back to back 28-30 point victories but close to it.
Not much. But hey, I'm grasping here!
coolnerd
Footballguy
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/07/bill-belichick-patriots-previous-win-over-texans-means-nothing-now/
Here is what Bill B thinks (or is willing to say in public) on the subject.
Here is what Bill B thinks (or is willing to say in public) on the subject.
Last edited by a moderator:
dhockster
Footballguy
For full disclosure, you picked the Bengals to beat the Texans, Yes?
The line seems a bit high for a playoff game. I see NE winning again...but not in a blow out fashion.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
IMO this outcome is as much a foregone conclusion as was the Green Bay/Minnesota matchup was this past weekend. This game will be a snoozer by the middle of the 3rd quarter.
dhockster
Footballguy
I think a lot of what happens in this game will depend on how the Texans block Wilfolk. They were not able to in the first game and he was therefore very disruptive to their whole offense. Also, for the Texans to have any shot, I think they need to get one, if not two touchdowns from outside the red zone. They are able to move the ball, they just bog down once they get inside the twenty. I think it is probable that New England wins this comfortably, but I will not be terribly surprised if it ends up being a close game. A few things go the other way early in the first game (Schaub throwing a pick when AF was wide open underneath, inability to fall on NE fumble inside Texan 5 yard line, phantom interference call on Texans against Welker on third down incompletion), and NE doesn't jump out to the huge lead.
Last edited by a moderator:
Houston still hasn't shaken the funk they've been in for the past two months. The defense is still overly aggressive and undisciplined causing bone-headed penalties and blown deep coverages. Whatever is wrong with the offense (Schaub is not the same man he was the first half of the season) has not been fixed and no receiving option other than Andre has stepped up. Hopefully I am wrong about my team, but IMO, it's going to take a huge effort by the defense to keep it close.
