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With the points, yes. What does that have to do with this conversation? Are you suggesting I'm jaded against the Texans? I can assure you I'm not. Look at how the Texans are playing and give me 2 good reason for optimism to expect better results than the last time they played the Pats. And full disclosure, I effing hate the Pats. They are the true Colts rival, not the Texans.
I believe you said "It's gonna sting when you lose next weekend to the Bengals" in the Texans thread. As to you being jaded, even your last sentence has a dismissive attitude, as if the Texans aren't up to a high enough standard to be the Colts rival. I will give you two small reasons why I think this came will be closer that last game. First, the last game probably could not have gone better for the Pats or worse for the Texans. The talent difference between the teams is a lot smaller than the first game indicated, so just based on probabilities I expect a better showing from the Texans and possibly a worse showing from the Patriots. Second, expectations. The Texans have shown so far this year that they don't perform well with pressure. Well, based on where they have put themselves, there really isn't any pressure on them to do anything this game, so I expect they will perform better than most people think. As I said in an earlier post, it is probable that the Patriots win comfortably, but I will not be surprised if it is a close game.
My quote was a jab. You know, fans do this. But technically you are correct, I guess did say that. The Colts are 18-4 all time versus the Texans IIRC. So, pardon me if I don't find them a true rivalry. Colts rivals in order of importance to this fan
ats-seems we play them most years and they're damn good. Ravens- city vs city factor on their endTitans- fisher always had them prepared to play us tough. Jags- MJD running amok on us. Texans- obviously this could change in the Texans can maintain their competitiveness. Back to this game, you can hope and dream that the Texans keep it close. I prefer to see it like it is. I was realistic that the Colts were going to lose this weekend and that appeared a much closer game than this one. Good luck!
I will take that bet sir.
From 1940-2013:Regular Season (2 playoff teams facing and a 28+ point difference): 76 times
By saying it was probable that the Patriots win comfortably, I was acknowledging that there is a good chance that the Texans lose this game. I just would not be surprised if it is closer than a lot of people, including yourself think.Seeing that you don't consider the team that has won the Colts division the last two years one of the Colts top 4 rivals, it made me realize what I have run up against: An arrogant Colts fan! Who knew that existed?Good luck to you, sir, in 2013. May you have many years of finishing behind the Texans and not considering them your rival.My quote was a jab. You know, fans do this. But technically you are correct, I guess did say that. The Colts are 18-4 all time versus the Texans IIRC. So, pardon me if I don't find them a true rivalry. Colts rivals in order of importance to this fan
This is a truly astonishing stat when you really give it some thought.Not only is it unlikely that the blowout victim gets blown out again in the playoffs - they've actually got a winning record overall against the teams that blew them out. File that one under "prop bets I can make money on from my friends and relatives".
makes that +9.5 look pretty good. trending better in recent years also...
Happy to do it, everyone knows I have a lot of opinions and putting simple stat facts up is nice.It's a very strange stat, teams over confident? Coaches of the winning team not making any adjustments? Or just good teams bouncing back?
Winning team doesn't want to mess with what worked before while other team is pouring over that game tape trying to stop it from repeating itself?
2010–11 NFL playoffs Divisional Round vs. New York Jets at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts Game time: 4:30 pm EST Game weather: 30 °F (−1 °C), clear and cold Game attendance: 68,756 Referee: Bill Leavy TV announcers (CBS): Jim Nantz (play-by-play) and Phil Simms (color commentator) Mark Sanchez completed 16 of 25 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Jets to victory, avenging a 45–3 loss to New England in December.How many times have the Pats lost in the playoffs in the same year to the same team they blew out earlier?We are likely talking about the best coach in the last 20 years here. Not some Joe Schmo.
So, that's once.2010–11 NFL playoffs Divisional Round vs. New York Jetsat Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts Game time: 4:30 pm EST Game weather: 30 °F (−1 °C), clear and cold Game attendance: 68,756 Referee: Bill Leavy TV announcers (CBS): Jim Nantz (play-by-play) and Phil Simms (color commentator) Mark Sanchez completed 16 of 25 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Jets to victory, avenging a 45–3 loss to New England in December.How many times have the Pats lost in the playoffs in the same year to the same team they blew out earlier?We are likely talking about the best coach in the last 20 years here. Not some Joe Schmo.
Just showing that it can happen to anyone.btw, coaches that make the playoffs after blowing out another team that made the playoffs are not bad coaches for the most part.So, that's once.2010–11 NFL playoffs Divisional Round vs. New York Jetsat Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts Game time: 4:30 pm EST Game weather: 30 °F (−1 °C), clear and cold Game attendance: 68,756 Referee: Bill Leavy TV announcers (CBS): Jim Nantz (play-by-play) and Phil Simms (color commentator) Mark Sanchez completed 16 of 25 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Jets to victory, avenging a 45–3 loss to New England in December.How many times have the Pats lost in the playoffs in the same year to the same team they blew out earlier?We are likely talking about the best coach in the last 20 years here. Not some Joe Schmo.
It's what I alluded to earlier (and also what Belichick said again this week). The outcome of one came has no impact on any subsequent game. Each game takes on a life of it's own. It could be the weather, the field conditions, the refs, a guy lining up in the wrong spot, a penalty, a tipped ball, an injury, etc. that can all lead to the ultimate outcome of a game.Some of those things happen in such a random order or are a sequence of events that most times are not repeatable. I would think that if we researched it, there are probable examples when teams played a close game in the first contest and everyone thought it would be a close rematch but it turned out to be a blowout.
Yep was covering Andre all game, mixed results.
Why did you choose 28+ point margins of victory? 14+ points is a blowout just the same.'packseasontix said:
Maybe because the Pats won the first game by 28 points? There are way more games where a team wins by 14 than 28. In the NFL, getting beat by 4 TD is a beat down. I don't think NFL players would feel the same about losing by 14 compared to 28.
NE vs. Denver last season. Blowout in Week 15, blowout in the playoffs.
I said that in this thread, too.
David,1985 Bears stomped the Patriots twice, 20-7 reg season game, 46-10 blowout in SB.1994, Chargers v. SF, in-season game, Chargers lost 15-38,also lost in the SB to SF that year, 26-49..1997 Broncos beat KC 19-3,beat them again div round, 14-10.lost the 2nd reg season matchup to KC.1997 Broncos lost reg season game to Pitt 24-35,beat them in Championship game 24-21.some teams playing same team twice 1986 Giants beat SF 21-17 ( I know it's not a blowout) then stomped them 49-3 in div round of playoffs.2009 Ravens lost to NE 21-27, then Ravens blew them out in wildcard round, 33-14.1998 ATl Falcons lost to SF 20-31 in reg season,beat SF in playoffs, 20-18.1998 Broncos lost to Miami in reg season,21-31, blew them out in playoffs 38-3.2007 Giants lost to Packers 13-35 in week 2 , beat them in Championship game, 23-20, also lost to Pats 35-38 week 17, beat them in SB 17-14.2000 Giants beat-down the Eagles 3 times, twice in reg season, once in playoffs..there are plenty of instances going either way..I get your point,that this game might not be a blowout..I think it's going to be a very close,competitive game..Houston is playing with house money in this one, the Boston papers are calling them frauds, they were blown out by NE just a few weeks back, so everyone is just writing them off..this is a bad idea..they have a lot of weapons..the Achilles' heel of NE is that in a big spot,at a crucial time, their defense has not made a big play...they got stomped by SF only to come roaring back, then SF needed just a few plays to score another TD..just when you want the defense to hold up, to make a stop, they collapse like a house of cards..so while everyone is talking about the weakness of the Houston defense,and how soft they are, NE has their own skeletons in the closet and they're equally as soft..they can't cover super fast WR's, they can be pushed around by physical o-lines ( see SF game, Balt, Giants, etc)according to the matchup stats, NE was one of the worst teams against the TE positionhttp://www.junkyardjake.com/Matchup/DefVsOff/season1/te.htmthru week 15 , Pats allowed 942 yards to TE's, 3rd worst in NFL..83 recs to TE's - 2nd worst in NFL, 8 TDs..what does it mean? Owen Daniels was 2-24 last game v Pats, you can expect him to be a HUGE part of this game..AJ was 8-95.Tate and Foster ran 23-92-1..not bad stats..you'll likely see Foster carry the ball 30+ times..they will force feed him the ball..they have to keep Brady off the field..IMO, people are too quick to write-off Houston..a team playing with house money, when everyone expects them to lose, is a dangerous team to play against..and with the weapons Houston has on both offense and defense ( Joseph, Watt,Foster, AJ, Daniels) I'd expect to see a more spirited Texans team play their butts off and give NE everything they have..
I think this plays possibly the biggest role of all.You'd have to be a real idiot as a head coach or coordinator to trot out the same looks, schemes, and overall game plan you did the first time against a team that beat you by 4 TDs. You're almost forced to reach into the bag of tricks, to come up with some new and creative plays and play calls, run new stunts, design some more audibles. On the other sideline, you're not nearly as inclined to be adventurous, because why would you when what you did the first time around worked so well? And any time you're being proactive and your opponents are being reactive, it's a recipe for success in an NFL game.Totally speculating here, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if part of the reason why the Texans looked flat against the Bengals is that Houston had spent 30-40% of their time in practice the week prior game-planning and running through new wrinkles on offense that they drew up with one eye on this coming weekend (knowing that they could always trot them out last weekend if need be, but hoping not to).FWIW, I still think the Pats pull this one out, but I think a 14+-point smackdown is pretty unlikely.
This...and what a lot of people are overlooking is that the Houston Defense actually didn't play that poorly against New England. I mean, you're not really going to shut down New Englands offense, the best you can hope for it to put yourself in a situation to get them off the field.They actually did that in the first meeting, they just couldn't capitalize on it, either with silly mental mistakes or just the ball not bouncing their way. I think there were 4 plays that were absolutely key to that first game, and not to take anything away from the Pats because they outplayed Houston and deserved to win that game, but if the outcome of those 4 plays are different (and they very easily could have been) I think that game is much closer.Play 1 was on the Pats first drive down by the end zone. The texans actually strip the ball and Kareem Jackson has an opportunity to fall on it, instead he tries to scoop it, misses it and Hernandez falls on it. The Pats score a play or 2 later.Play 2 was Schaubs first INT. Houston was driving and had a wide open foster who probably could have scored, instead he tried to force it down the field and was picked off.Play 3 was a PI call on Houston on a 3rd down. The ball was overthrown to Welker and D.Manning (i believe it was him) cut Welker off and gave him a little bump. Flag was thrown. I include this play for a couple reasons, 1) I don't think that call gets called every time, it happened to be called this time (which I don't really have a problem with even though I don't agree that it was interference), 2) the contact was unneccesary, which is a mental mistake on the texans def, as I don't think Welker was going to catch it anyway. The Pats continue the drive and score a TD.Play 4 was a drive in the 2nd half where the Texans basically were on their last legs. Watt actually catches the Pats player (Ridley?) from behind and punches the ball out. It lands into the endzone where an all alone Lloyd falls on it for the TD. That's 28 points right there on 4 plays. Again, I'm not trying to take anything away from the Pats because they absolutely and rightfully won that game. I'm just pointing out that it was probably a worst case game for the Texans as even when they did something right, it went wrong. I expect things to be much closer this time.That said, I'll be rooting for the Texans, but I really just don't think they have the mental toughness to avoid the mental mistakes to beat the Pats.
Yea... AJ with more fantasy points than Foster in this one.
Getting beat by 2 TDs is a blowout period. 17-3, 24-10, 31-17 are all blowouts. 28 is arbitrary and cherry-picked.
I disagree that 2 TDs is a blowout. I've seen games that were tied after 58 minutes and one team scored inside the 2 minute warning. The other team, needing a TD to match, threw a pick 6 so the final was 2 TD but the game was neck and neck the entire game.I don't think anyone would argue a 4 TD spread for a fincal score was close (plus those types of victories happen less frequently). I still think losing by 2 TD most folks would just say that was a loss not a drubbing. Almost everyone would say a 4 TD loss was a beat down and a fleecing.My point was (and has since been backed up) that it rarely happens that a playoff team beats a fellow playoff team in the regular season by that many points and then does the same think in the playoffs (back to back 4 TD victories). I beleive it's happened twice in 70 years. The team that was blown out was .522 (12-11) in rematch games in the playoffs, so those thinking the Pats have it made might be in for a surprise should the Texans play much better this week than they did in December.
Glad I didn't see this, sry I woulda bet. I'll lay the pts.
If I were Belichick, I'd key on Foster and the running game and force Schaub to beat them. Put Talib on AJ and guard against the short screens.Afterall, how many quarters has it been without Schaub throwing for a TD?
1. Arian Foster's tweets about an idiot reporter getting his teammates amped and jacked.2. Schaub has to be due for a TD throw or 2.
Makes me think that if it is not a repeat blowout that Houston wins a close game. Either way the points might not mean that much.'David Yudkin said:
I'll add 3 and 4...3) A healthy Jonathan Joseph. Their defense is much better when he's on the field. He played vs. the Pats last time but it was his first game back from injury. Plus they'll have Brooks Reed for this game which they didn't have last time.1. Arian Foster's tweets about an idiot reporter getting his teammates amped and jacked.2. Schaub has to be due for a TD throw or 2.
...best I could do.
Definitely was only a few plays away from being a close game. That BS pass interference call (vs. Welker) definitely changed the balance of the game. That was a punting situation, but instead they scored on that drive. They later called offensive PI on Houston when it was actually pretty clearly defensive PI. Ended up scoring on that drive anyway, but still made the officiating seem a bit one sided. And as you stated, the Patriots landing on all the loose balls made a 14 point difference all by itself. I hope Jackson got an earful for not falling on that ball in the first quarter. Putz.
Oh look.
Congratulations, you called a blowout on a game with a 9.5 point spread. Well done!
