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How can you start ADP? (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU said:
Is anyone in a 12 team league or more actually benching ADP in the fantasy PLAYOFFS?
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Up 50 to 17 after Thursday so I might plug in Bradshaw over ADP. Might pay for me to be conservative and go for more certain points. Very tough to do though. If ADP has health concerns then it will be easier, but that looks less likely today as well.
 
JohnnyU said:
You know what, I'm not going to start someone in place of Peterson at this stage of the season. I'll sink or swim with him and not try to get cute this time of the year. Besides, if I'm wrong I could still win my matchups. In my mind there are some players you can play this game with and some you don't. I don't think I could stand myself if I benched him and he blew up. How stupid would that make you feel if you benched ADP and he went for 156/3? Having said that, I do believe the Bears will put 9 or even 10 in the box to stop Peterson and Webb's running ability. They will simply say, "rookie, beat us with your arm". Here's hoping Peterson takes a screen pass to the house :mellow:
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:pickle: And it's never good to be reminded of it this time of the year. (see: Brady, Tom :thumbup: Luckily I survived it.) This is the fun but intense pressure of fantasy! Gotta love it.
 
JohnnyU said:
Is anyone in a 12 team league or more actually benching ADP in the fantasy PLAYOFFS?
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14 Team league and considering it, reason being my opponent has Rodgers and Gates, both of which he has to bench and now has to roll with Santana Moss (with Rex Grossman in now) and Cutler. I think this could give me a little wiggle room to start Blount against the Lions instead. What you guys think?
 
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this issue with ADP is that is highly unlikely that he has a huge game.

It is doubtful that the Vikings will be in the redzone much so TDs drop not even factoring in Toby as the 3rd down back.

It is doubtful that the game will be close so in a blowout ADP's value drops even more.

Add in the weather, the Chi rush D, a rookie 3rd string QB in his first game, and a banged up ankle and knee....starting ADP over a solid RB going against an average to weak rush defense is pretty dumb. This is a huge game for the Bears coming off a beat down by the Pats. This is a totally meaningless game for the Vikings.

Comparing RBs/WRs to QBs in terms of ASYS is dumb.

I think 17/68/0 is a likely stat line with ADP in this situation- throw in 40-70 yards receiving with tons of dump offs after the Bears are up by like 14.

He's more likely to score a TD as a receiver than he is running.

 
SayWhat? said:
Bench Peterson for the likes of Tim Hightower? That's on a whole 'nother level of crazy.
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Not really...you have to think of this:Who has the higher ceiling compared to the lower floor.... AP had 11 pts in PPR (51yds rushing) in the last game vs Chicago, in Chicago. He also had his regular QB and wasn't banged up like his now, thanks to that clown Jackson running in to him on a handoff. Now, he's dealing with below zero weather, possibly a snow storm moving in and his QB is starting his first game as a QB, who was drafted as a WR that is now playing QB again :boxing: , not to mention the fact that the play calling last week was beyond awful.Now, although Hightower is absolutely a nightmare, he's coming off a good game, albeit most of his points came in the 4th qtr last week. He's playing against a Carolina D that gave up 3 TD's to Marshawn Lynch and Michael Turner, and it looks like Beanie is in the doghouse/sick/injured once again. Hightower has, I believe, both a higher ceiling and a higher floor, than AP this week, thus he is now in my starting lineup over AP. I'm not saying I like my decision or do I feel comfortable with it but every point counts for me the next two weeks with some serious $$ on the line. I'm either going to look really smart or really stupid :lmao:
 
FavreCo said:
JohnnyU said:
Is anyone in a 12 team league or more actually benching ADP in the fantasy PLAYOFFS?
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Yep. Right now Ryan Torain is in.
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I am playing Torain over ADP as well. Have a feeling that ADP will beg out of the game early with his injury, cold weather and nothing to play for.
 
It's all a numbers game. My alternatives to ADP would be Felix, Torain or Westbrook. Do I think it is likely that one of those guys scores more than ADP? Yes. Do I have any clue which one it will be? Not the slightest.

I see the odds as being 60/40 that ADP has a very below average game. For almost any other RB in the league in this exact situation, I discount that projection to an 80/20 that he has a bad game. But ADP is special. And I believe special players deserve special consideration even when the odds are against them.

So it's a 60/40 shot with ADP, or a 33% chance of picking which one of the other three options will have their good week.

This being the case, I stick with ADP. Live or die.

However, I will say that I like ADP's chances to have more involvement in the passing game given the current situation (which makes me feel slightly better about his chances in PPR).

We shall see...

 
I am currently leaning towards benching Peterson for Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Stewart.

Here is one thing to consider, though...

The Vikings are honoring the 50 greatest players in franchise history on Monday. I believe this is one of the reasons they were adament about playing this game in Minnesota. Wouldn't a guy who will clearly go down as one of the franchise's best players (AP) try to put on a show for the legends in attendance? I'm not saying that it will be enough to overcome the ankle, weather, rookie QB and Bear defense but I think he will have extra incentive to deliver a performance to remember.

 
I've been going back and forth with AP or Blount. One thing that is swaying me toward AP is people keep mentioning the frigid weather. Well, who is gonna get the worst of it? AP or the poor b@st@rds he'll be slamming into?

I have to say in 19 years off FF I can't recall a more agonizing lineup decision.

 
It's looking like a 4-7" snowfall for Minneapolis on Monday Night. The question is the timing of the heaviest snow. One model brings the heaviest during the game, while another model has it coming in a little earlier. ( Winds won't be all too bad since its a relatively week system and the snow is driven by overunninng/ warm air advection. Obvioulsy not good for AP. Out of curiousity what has AP done in the snow in the past?

 
The possibility of a Monday night scratch makes this one agony.

Starting McCoy and Jones-Drew over him at RB

At flex, deciding between him, Austin, and DJax, right now it's a coin toss between him and DJax...

 
50ydfieldgoal said:
It's looking like a 4-7" snowfall for Minneapolis on Monday Night. The question is the timing of the heaviest snow. One model brings the heaviest during the game, while another model has it coming in a little earlier. ( Winds won't be all too bad since its a relatively week system and the snow is driven by overunninng/ warm air advection. Obvioulsy not good for AP. Out of curiousity what has AP done in the snow in the past?
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I don't know ADP's snow record off hand, but one thing to remember is that he'll know where he's going and the defenders will not.-QG
 
QuizGuy66 said:
50ydfieldgoal said:
It's looking like a 4-7" snowfall for Minneapolis on Monday Night. The question is the timing of the heaviest snow. One model brings the heaviest during the game, while another model has it coming in a little earlier. ( Winds won't be all too bad since its a relatively week system and the snow is driven by overunninng/ warm air advection. Obvioulsy not good for AP. Out of curiousity what has AP done in the snow in the past?
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I don't know ADP's snow record off hand, but one thing to remember is that he'll know where he's going and the defenders will not.-QG
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Bad weather favors the running game.
 
JohnnyU said:
QuizGuy66 said:
50ydfieldgoal said:
It's looking like a 4-7" snowfall for Minneapolis on Monday Night. The question is the timing of the heaviest snow. One model brings the heaviest during the game, while another model has it coming in a little earlier. ( Winds won't be all too bad since its a relatively week system and the snow is driven by overunninng/ warm air advection. Obvioulsy not good for AP. Out of curiousity what has AP done in the snow in the past?
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I don't know ADP's snow record off hand, but one thing to remember is that he'll know where he's going and the defenders will not.-QG
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Bad weather favors the running game.
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That was my point :) -QG
 
I did and posted i was starting him in confidence. Oops. PRobably will lose both games bc of it but luckily I was fast enough to IR peterson and plug in gerhart. Unreal that he was declared out an hour ago and not saturday after practice...

 
kylechoffman said:
I did and posted i was starting him in confidence. Oops. PRobably will lose both games bc of it but luckily I was fast enough to IR peterson and plug in gerhart. Unreal that he was declared out an hour ago and not saturday after practice...
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Considering the vikings were starting Joe Webb at that point it would of made sense to keep AP's status under wraps. The ironic thing is I made the right move benching him for Bradshaw but had he played Gerhardt may not have fumbled away the championship to my opponent who started Bears D. The gods are cruel sometimes. :confused:
 
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