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How disappointing will Randy Moss' career be (1 Viewer)

cstu

Footballguy
Through age 27, Randy Moss was by far the most prolific WR in the history of the NFL. He was an immediate success and dominated from a very early age. Here are the top two WR's in fantasy points scored by age 27:

1 Randy Moss 98-04 109 G 574 Rec 9142 Yards 15.93 YPC 90 TD 1477.05 Pts.2 Jerry Rice 85-89 76 G 346 Rec 6364 Yards 18.39 YPC 66 TD 1085.30 PtsDue to Moss' injuries the past two years, Moss is still the leader in fantasy points by age 29 but the gap has narrowed to less than 100 fantasy points between him and Rice. While not a lot of us are surprised by what has happened to Moss recently since his dedication has been questioned for a long time, it is disappointing to me that he is blowing his chance to be the greatest WR in history.

 
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Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.

 
If Moss never played another down, he'd ran Top 8 in TD receptions, Top 24 in receiving yards, and Top 32 in receptions. Even with two pretty mediocre years the past two years Moss STILL ranked in the Top 20 fantasy WR both years.

As for chasing Rice, he's a league of his own. Rice has a 448 reception advantage, 7961 yard advantage, and a 67 TD advantage in receiving TD--all of these VERSUS THE #2 ranked player in each category.

To put that in perspective,that's 29% more receptions, 35% more in receiving yards, and 35% more receiving TD than the next guy. In short, comparing a player's potential production up against Rice is just wrong, as I doubt there will be another Rice.

So if Moss were to try for second best in all the key categories, he'd need 467 more receptions, and 4,787 more reciving yards, and 33 more receiving TD to rank 2nd in all of them (unless other guys set get their first).

At 80 receptions a year, it would take him about 6 more seasons for receptions.

At 1,000 yards a year, it would take him 5 more seasons for yardage.

At 9 TD a year, it would take him 4 seasons for TD.

Those are some conservative numbers based on what he's done so far, and I don't think that they are unreasonable for him to get to.

The big question will be if he is motivated enough to keep playing that long.

 
Does getting injured fall within the realm of "blowing his chance"?
If the injuries were due to lack of proper conditioning, yes.
They were not .....His bad season last year was due to playing on a bad team with no running game and a bad coach.
What about 2004? A big reason the Vikings traded him is because they felt he didn't take care of himself well enough to play at a high level into his 30's. Regardless of why you think he had a bad season last year, he didn't perform well for the 2nd straight season - or at least not what we've come to expect of Randy Moss.
 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.
Your crazy if you think any player has a stronger work ethic than TO
 
Does getting injured fall within the realm of "blowing his chance"?
If the injuries were due to lack of proper conditioning, yes.
They were not .....His bad season last year was due to playing on a bad team with no running game and a bad coach.
I wouldn't really call Lamont Jordan's 1500 total yards and 11 TD's "no running game". Sure only 1025 of those yards came on the ground but he had 9 rushing TD's. 15th in the league in rushing yards and tied for 10th in rushing TD'sI don't think you can blame his down year last year on the running game.

 
I dont think there is any way that people who watched Moss play last year prior to his injury can say he has lost a step. The guy started the year unbelievable and was getting double/tripled coverd as usual yet still puttin up numbers. If he can stay healthy, he will be dominant still. I have no doubt about that.

 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.
Actually if history is any indication, you ALWAYS find something missing in people who have an abundance of something elsePeople like Hitler, Alexander, Karl Marx, Lenin, Stalin etc etc all had some great attributes/talents that most people do not. But they also had major negative qualities that led to their downfall

So nothing surprising at all

For eg: If you are great, you are bound to be egoistic. Just dem facts

 
I dont think there is any way that people who watched Moss play last year prior to his injury can say he has lost a step. The guy started the year unbelievable and was getting double/tripled coverd as usual yet still puttin up numbers. If he can stay healthy, he will be dominant still. I have no doubt about that.
Well, I watched him get caught, and I've never seen that. He looked bigger, as well, which probably didn't help his speed.I can't remember the game, but I remember it clearly. It was early in the season.

I'm not saying he can't still dominate, that's obvious. I am saying he has lost some speed, which is pretty important for him.

 
Where does this belief come from that Moss doesn't work hard to condition himself? Ok, so he takes plays off, we get that. But everything I've ever heard about Moss is that he's a very hard worker off the field. You aren't just born in the condition he's spent most of his career in.

 
before he got hurt he was pacing for something like 1,700 receiving yards through first four games...

he did get hurt for second year in a row, but it looked like a few DBs fell on him akwardly, so who knows, maybe it was flukey...

i'm with the people that think it didn't look like he had lost a step when healthy...

even if he did/has... he has a couple to spare... :)

 
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before he got hurt he was pacing for something like 1,700 receiving yards through forst four games...

he did get hurt for second year in a row, but it looked like a few DBs fell on him akwardly, so who knows, maybe it was flukey...

i'm with the people that think it didn't look like he had lost a step when healthy...

even if he did/has... he has a couple to spare... :)
People hate Moss, such is life. I honestly think most around here want him to fail ou tof pure spite. Makes no sense to me... the guy is just a freaking athelte. :shrug:
 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.
You'd end up with a Jerry Rice. :thumbup:
 
before he got hurt he was pacing for something like 1,700 receiving yards through first four games...

he did get hurt for second year in a row, but it looked like a few DBs fell on him akwardly, so who knows, maybe it was flukey...

i'm with the people that think it didn't look like he had lost a step when healthy...

even if he did/has... he has a couple to spare... :)
Most of his game is based on speed and his ability to make spectacular catches. He's not a good route runner, which is why he told Daunte "chuck it up to me and I'll catch it". Losing a couple steps means the difference between him being a dominating WR and an inconsistent big play WR.
 
Does getting injured fall within the realm of "blowing his chance"?
If the injuries were due to lack of proper conditioning, yes.
Do you even know what his conditioning program is?
I don't know his program personally, but I've followed his career closely and have been a big fan of his. From years of watching him it became clear that he doesn't have the dedication to the game that his peers at the top of the game do. I started becoming aware of it in 2001 but once Carter retired and he didn't have another WR looking over his shoulder all the time I noticed a big shift in his attitude. I'm not sure how to explain it but it's something that got progressively worse with the Vikings. I was actually impressed by his attitude after getting traded to the Raiders, but watching him it looked like he was the same old player trying to get by with his natural ability. Maybe I'm wrong and I hope I am, but he doesn't seem to have the heart to overcome obstacles when things get difficult. I can't stand TO anymore, but at least his heart can't be questioned.
 
Moss seems to be one of the most misunderstood athletes of our time. He's nowhere near as bad a guy as he often gets painted to be, but that's just the reporting angle that draws the most attention. hes definitely a 'microscope' guy, but Im not cutting him any slack. hes brought it on himself with his questionable attitude and approach to the game. he's more talented than ANY receiver to ever play the game. If he continues on his current path of bad luck/underachievment, his legacy wont sustain. When its all said and done, in the end, wed all remember him as just another great player that will fade from memory in due time.

 
Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.
I am not sure these two things are can be inclusive of each other. Certainly their are exceptions and Michael Jordan is one of them, but more times than not, if a player is so much more physically gifted than his peers, what is the insentive to work harder?I think a big part of Jerry Rice's work ethic was his lack of pure talent.

 
People hate Moss, such is life.  I honestly think most around here want him to fail ou tof pure spite.  Makes no sense to me... the guy is just a freaking athelte. :shrug:
you see that all over the place, and i don't understand it either. Moss certainly isn't my favorite, but i would never root for him to fail.many hate Vick because of the hype ESPN gives him

many hate Eli because of what he did/said before he was drafted

many hate Ray Lewis because of the murder trial

no one knows these guys personally, but it's sometimes disturbing to see the dislike for the player on the field turn into some kind of personal hatred.

 
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In my $$ auction/keeper ($200 auction cap) league last season I picked up Moss while still dinged up in an effort to get back into the playoff hunt. He didn't quite bounce back.

Now I'm looking at my roster to decide on my 4 keepers and its shaping up like this:

LJ... $9 (picked up midseason for Leftwich) :excited:

C.Taylor... $4

TO... $25

....and Perhaps Moss @ $56. :) Talk about going Stud WR.

Moss has gone for more in his "prime." I have a feeling based on doubts spawned by his getting dinged up last year, that if I were to throw him back into the pool I could get him for less.

Decisions, decisions... :football:

 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.
Your crazy if you think any player has a stronger work ethic than TO
When I talk about work ethic, it applies to all aspects of his job - not just doing 3000 situps in the driveway.
 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.
Your crazy if you think any player has a stronger work ethic than TO
When I talk about work ethic, it applies to all aspects of his job - not just doing 3000 situps in the driveway.
I can't see how a person could possibly question TO's dedication to the game of football.
 
People hate Moss, such is life.  I honestly think most around here want him to fail ou tof pure spite.  Makes no sense to me... the guy is just a freaking athelte. :shrug:
you see that all over the place, and i don't understand it either. Moss certainly isn't my favorite, but i would never root for him to fail.many hate Vick because of the hype ESPN gives him

many hate Eli because of what he did/said before he was drafted

many hate Ray Lewis because of the murder trial

no one knows these guys personally, but it's sometimes disturbing to see the dislike for the player on the field turn into some kind of personal hatred.
:eek: That's the most I've ever seen you write.

 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.
Your crazy if you think any player has a stronger work ethic than TO
When I talk about work ethic, it applies to all aspects of his job - not just doing 3000 situps in the driveway.
I can't see how a person could possibly question TO's dedication to the game of football.
Maybe it's that he'd rather be in the NBA. Or maybe it's his dedication to himself. But anyone truly dedicated would realize the team is bigger than they are...or at the very least, the game.
 
:P

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.
I am not sure these two things are can be inclusive of each other. Certainly their are exceptions and Michael Jordan is one of them, but more times than not, if a player is so much more physically gifted than his peers, what is the insentive to work harder?
I think a big part of Jerry Rice's work ethic was his lack of pure talent.
See ! You just fell into the same trap that practically every DB in the league did over his career. You believed Jerry's tale of how he lacks pure talent that he has laid on everyone and got snookered by Mr Rice. :)
 
As Moss is 29 years old, it would not be unusual for him to have lost a step. In his first 5 seasons, Jerry Rice averaged 18.4 yards a catch. He turned 28 in 1990 and never averaged more than 15.3 yards a catch in any subsequent season (though he had many monster seasons after the age of 27). Michael Irvin had a similar career path until he got hurt. I'm not sure how much of Moss' game is built on speed.

 
The truly sad thing is that Moss has always been viewed as lazy, whereas Rice was considered one of the biggest workaholics with the best work ethics ever. Just imagine if Moss actually played EVERY down, and worked out consistently. He would be light years ahead of even the great Jerry Rice...

 
The truly sad thing is that Moss has always been viewed as lazy, whereas Rice was considered one of the biggest workaholics with the best work ethics ever. Just imagine if Moss actually played EVERY down, and worked out consistently. He would be light years ahead of even the great Jerry Rice...
Whats truly sad is I have never heard a single teammate of Moss' say he has poor workethic.
 
Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.
I am not sure these two things are can be inclusive of each other. Certainly their are exceptions and Michael Jordan is one of them, but more times than not, if a player is so much more physically gifted than his peers, what is the insentive to work harder?I think a big part of Jerry Rice's work ethic was his lack of pure talent.
:goodposting:
 
# of 1400 yard receiving seasons by WR up to 28 years old: 35

# of 10 TD reception seasons by WR up to 28 years old: 167

Total # of WR seasons since 1960: 4681

35/4681 = 0.75% of WR with 1400 yards receiving

167/4681 = 3.6% of WR with 10 TD

# of 1400 yard receiving seasons by WR 29 and older: 14

# of 10 TD reception seasons by WR 29 and older: 63

Total # of WR seasons since 1960: 1403

14/1403 = 1% of WR with 1400 yards receiving

63/1403 = 4.5% of WR with 10 TD

The math for WR in general doesn't show that WR will do worse as they age a little, but we all know stat interpretation is a bit misleading and each individual player is different.

 
I think a big part of Jerry Rice's work ethic was his lack of pure talent.
:eek: We know we are officially in the depths of the off-season when people are making statements like this.
 
If Moss never played another down, he'd ran Top 8 in TD receptions, Top 24 in receiving yards, and Top 32 in receptions. Even with two pretty mediocre years the past two years Moss STILL ranked in the Top 20 fantasy WR both years.

As for chasing Rice, he's a league of his own. Rice has a 448 reception advantage, 7961 yard advantage, and a 67 TD advantage in receiving TD--all of these VERSUS THE #2 ranked player in each category.

To put that in perspective,that's 29% more receptions, 35% more in receiving yards, and 35% more receiving TD than the next guy. In short, comparing a player's potential production up against Rice is just wrong, as I doubt there will be another Rice.

So if Moss were to try for second best in all the key categories, he'd need 467 more receptions, and 4,787 more receiving yards, and 33 more receiving TD to rank 2nd in all of them (unless other guys set get their first).

At 80 receptions a year, it would take him about 6 more seasons for receptions.

At 1,000 yards a year, it would take him 5 more seasons for yardage.

At 9 TD a year, it would take him 4 seasons for TD.

Those are some conservative numbers based on what he's done so far, and I don't think that they are unreasonable for him to get to.

The big question will be if he is motivated enough to keep playing that long.
:goodposting: I just went through this with someone and came to the same conclusion that the race is for 2nd best and Moss should get there. he is more of a student of the game then people give him credit for. His long legs make it look like he is loafing when he is moving fast. I am not saying he doesn't take plays off, but he gets a bad wrap that may or may not be deserved.
 
Man, it's such a damn shame that you see such superb athletic ability knitted to heads like those on Moss & T.O.

Think if these guys had their athletic ability paired with the work ethic of a Hines Ward or Rod Smith.

Moss may end up going out with a fizzle by the times it is all over, and all he'll leave as a memory 40 years down the road is shaking heads & unanswered questions.
Your crazy if you think any player has a stronger work ethic than TO
When I talk about work ethic, it applies to all aspects of his job - not just doing 3000 situps in the driveway.
If that is what you talk about when you say work ethic, you are using the phrase incorrectly.
 
I think a big part of Jerry Rice's work ethic was his lack of pure talent.
:eek: We know we are officially in the depths of the off-season when people are making statements like this.
I honestly don't think Rice would have had the character he did if the game was easy for him and he was gifted with 4.3 speed.Maybe he would have been the same, but receiving accolades your entire life for something you are mostly born with can change you.

 
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While not a lot of us are surprised by what has happened to Moss recently since his dedication has been questioned for a long time, it is disappointing to me that he is blowing his chance to be the greatest WR in history.
What if he doesn't care about meeting your criteria for the "greatest" receiver of all time? I mean, it's probably not his purpose in life to live up to your standard or anyone else's for that matter. If he's happy with how his career has gone so far and where it's headed, then that's really all that matters - at least to him.I really don't think he cares about all the haters.

 
I started becoming aware of it in 2001 but once Carter retired and he didn't have another WR looking over his shoulder all the time I noticed a big shift in his attitude. I'm not sure how to explain it but it's something that got progressively worse with the Vikings.
Losing a lot, crappy coaching and a terrible owner are more to blame than anything for Moss' supposed "bad" attitude.
 
As a lifelong Seahawk fan, it was great to have him for a year. He will always be a 49'er... and will hit the HOF as a 9'er... but for me, it really was an honor to watch him catch a few passes as a Hawk.

Wish we could have nabbed him a few years prior... but, hey... I'll take what I'm given :)

 
Amazing what a difference a season in NE can make.

Career fantasy points after 2006:


Code:
1	Randy Moss	wr	1998--2006	138	676	10700	15.83	101	1698.85
2	Jerry Rice	wr	1985--1991	108	526	9072	17.25	93	1518.30
Career fantasy points after 2007:


Code:
1	Randy Moss	wr	1998--2007	154	774	12193	15.75	124	1986.15
2	Jerry Rice	wr	1985--1992	124	610	10273	16.84	103	1710.20
Career numbers still seem unreachable (at least 8 more years), but he could be #2 by the end of this year:


Code:
1	Jerry Rice	wr	1985--2004	303	1549	22895	14.78	197	3596.00
2	Cris Carter	wr	1987--2002	234	1101	13899	12.62	130	2174.00
3	Marvin Harrison	wr	1996--2007	175	1042	13944	13.38	123	2135.20
4	Tim Brown	wr	1988--2004	255	1094	14934	13.65	100	2118.40
5	Terrell Owens	wr	1996--2007	173	882	13070	14.82	129	2109.40
6	Randy Moss	wr	1998--2007	154	774	12193	15.75	124	1986.15
 

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