Bovine Swami
Footballguy
My draft isn't until the 30th so I fully acknowledge that there is a ton of time for things to change, but what does the group think about strategy at this point? Specifically, I have a 12 team league that scores 6pts for all TDs, 1/10 rushing+receiving, 1/25 passing, and 1pt/catch. We also start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, K, D, Flex(QB/WR/RB).
Three days ago, I was a lock to take Portis with the #4 pick. I saw Portis and Tiki as having the same probable production, with Tiki having downside and Portis having upside. Tiki's downside comes from his age and the number of carries (esp on the goal line) that Jacobs is likely to get. Portis' upside comes from the increased receiving weapons and the addition of OC Saunders.
Now I am in a quandary. I really, really don't want to take Tiki. Call it a gut feeling, call it bad vibes or whatever. I think the options at #4 for me boil down to these:
1. Portis. Pray that the injury is not as serious as we think it is and he misses at most Week 1. And while you are down on your knees, pray the injury doesn't crop up later in the season. No matter what, you MUST handcuff Betts with Portis during the draft and that will probably cost you a fairly high pick if there are other sharks in your league.
2. Barber. Here you need to sacrifice a bucket of KFC and tequila to whatever gods you follow that Jacob's fumbling problems continue and Tiki gets more goal line carries. And hope that Tiki keeps up the same production that he has shown over the last 4 years.
3. Manning. Guaranteed to put up a ton of points week in and week out, especially with 6pts per TD. That would pretty much secure the same amount of fantasy production per week as a stud RB. The downside is that when you DO get to pick a RB your options will be much more limited.
4. Westbrook. In a PPR league like mine he has been gold the past couple years. I actually had him last year with my 2nd round pick. When healthy, he will get a ton of touches and it looks like that trend will continue again this year. But once again, he is a little banged up and you will probably only get 13-14 games out of him (at best).
5. Jordan. Last year the guy was an animal. And it looks like he will be given the load again this year with a HC that loves to pound the football. The problem is we don't know if last year was a fluke or not.
Overall, I think I have to go with Tiki here. Like I said, I really have a bad feeling but I think that is the only sure bet without sacrificing much value.
Thoughts from the pool?
Three days ago, I was a lock to take Portis with the #4 pick. I saw Portis and Tiki as having the same probable production, with Tiki having downside and Portis having upside. Tiki's downside comes from his age and the number of carries (esp on the goal line) that Jacobs is likely to get. Portis' upside comes from the increased receiving weapons and the addition of OC Saunders.
Now I am in a quandary. I really, really don't want to take Tiki. Call it a gut feeling, call it bad vibes or whatever. I think the options at #4 for me boil down to these:
1. Portis. Pray that the injury is not as serious as we think it is and he misses at most Week 1. And while you are down on your knees, pray the injury doesn't crop up later in the season. No matter what, you MUST handcuff Betts with Portis during the draft and that will probably cost you a fairly high pick if there are other sharks in your league.
2. Barber. Here you need to sacrifice a bucket of KFC and tequila to whatever gods you follow that Jacob's fumbling problems continue and Tiki gets more goal line carries. And hope that Tiki keeps up the same production that he has shown over the last 4 years.
3. Manning. Guaranteed to put up a ton of points week in and week out, especially with 6pts per TD. That would pretty much secure the same amount of fantasy production per week as a stud RB. The downside is that when you DO get to pick a RB your options will be much more limited.
4. Westbrook. In a PPR league like mine he has been gold the past couple years. I actually had him last year with my 2nd round pick. When healthy, he will get a ton of touches and it looks like that trend will continue again this year. But once again, he is a little banged up and you will probably only get 13-14 games out of him (at best).
5. Jordan. Last year the guy was an animal. And it looks like he will be given the load again this year with a HC that loves to pound the football. The problem is we don't know if last year was a fluke or not.
Overall, I think I have to go with Tiki here. Like I said, I really have a bad feeling but I think that is the only sure bet without sacrificing much value.
Thoughts from the pool?
Not saying this is nothing but it's not like he shredded his ACL. I might hesitate at 4 and go Tiki but probably not. Plus all RBs I draft get hurt anyway so I figure now he has his out of the way.I really hope the rest of my league shies away from him though. 
Being able to go with a flex QB makes a huge difference im
ther than that I'm in the same boat--#4 in a league with no PPR
