How many balls does Welker catch this season? (1 Viewer)

[Swanny]

I'm sure Welker isn't 100%, but he certainly looks recovered enough to be a big part of the offense this season. That being said, the Pats have said they want to run the ball more (although I'll believe it when I see it). In addition, Edelman appears to be a capable possession guy who could limit Welker's looks if needed. But the big question to me is how many balls Welker loses to the TEs this season - although I'm not sure either will be a reliable fantasy option, both Gonzalez and Gronkowski look like players and will surely eat into some of Welker's targets (more so than Moss's, I think).

In a PPR league, Welker can be absolute money. Question is, how early do you take him? I'm sitting with the 1 and 2 picks in my big money leagues, and if I don't take Welker in the early 3rd, I don't think he's going to be there at the end of the 4th. When I look at the WRs, after the top 6-8 guys, I don't know if there's a better option than Welker. Asssuming he plays a full season, and at this point I have no reason to believe he doesn't, do you guys see him topping 100 catches again? Even if he gets 75% of his production from last season, he would still top 100 catches. I'm not expecting more than 5-6 TDs, but again, in a PPR league I'm not sure there is more of a sure thing (despite the injury) than Welker after that top tier of WRs are off the board.

Thoughts?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think he drops to the 90-100 range this year if he plays all 16.

 

[[icon]]

Assuming 16 games?

96 Receptions - 1020yds - 5TD

 

[Tanner9919]

I think he drops to the 90-100 range this year if he plays all 16.

especially true if you buy the notion that the Pats will throw more balls to the TE's this season...

 

[Football Critic]

I think he drops to the 90-100 range this year if he plays all 16.

especially true if you buy the notion that the Pats will throw more balls to the TE's this season...

Your overthinking this....Brady loves the guy, 100+ again!

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think he drops to the 90-100 range this year if he plays all 16.

especially true if you buy the notion that the Pats will throw more balls to the TE's this season...

thats mainly what im basing it on, as well as them wanting to get edelman on the field as well. Tate looks good as well. NE really has quite a crop of receivers.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Don't overthink this too much 100+ receptions. Its still NE - its still Tom Brady - its still Wes Welker - he will get his.

 

[BRONG]

How does he not lose any of his quickness?

 

[AngryPatriot]

By rehabbing, training....

Just like pitchers after TommyJohn surgery still throwing 98, it happens.

 

[billyjohnson]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

 

[[icon]]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

No way? Reception Stats in New England:2007: 112 (First year w/ Brady)2008: 111 (Brady Injured)2009: 123 (in 14 games - Really only 13 - On Pace for 140+ Receptions) I can see a regression to the mean. I can even see a SLIGHT DIP. But you're talking about a 20% decline from his worst season in New England.... and nearly a 40% decline from last year's pace. If you've watched the preseason you'll see he's sufficiently healed to make the cuts that have made him brady's favorite target. Brady is finally 100% healthy. Care to elaborate?

 

[munchkin]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

 

[Spike]

I think he drops to the 90-100 range this year if he plays all 16.

especially true if you buy the notion that the Pats will throw more balls to the TE's this season...

Your overthinking this....Brady loves the guy, 100+ again!

I think Tanner is spot-on here. After seeing the dearth of good receiving TE options over the last 5 (or so) years, and now seeing how Gronkowski/Hernandez/Crumpler have performed (albeit in the preseason), I would think some percentage of the passes Welker would catch will go to the TEs. Even if Welker hadn't had been injured last season.

 

[Spike]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

 

[[icon]]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

Edelman plays the same position as welker and did quite well in Welker's absence in weeks 2/3 last season. However... what happened as soon as welker returned? He averaged just over 1 reception per game up until Welker's 2nd injury in week 17. About HALF of those receptions (6) came in garbage time in the 59-0 massacre of the Titans in week 6. Remove that and you're looking at 10 receptions in 12 weeks.... and remember this was AFTER Welker had missed 2 weeks due to injury. Edelmen is a great receiver, but Welker's injuries are not results of wear and tear (like a RB breaking down from getting 32 touches in a game).... but more of a random occurrence due to his style of play. There IS a difference. There's no real reason to limit his catches as he's shown he can handle the workload. When Welker is healthy, HE is in the slot for the majority of the snaps.

 

[fruity pebbles]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

Edelman plays the same position as welker and did quite well in Welker's absence in weeks 2/3 last season. However... what happened as soon as welker returned? He averaged just over 1 reception per game up until Welker's 2nd injury in week 17. About HALF of those receptions (6) came in garbage time in the 59-0 massacre of the Titans in week 6. Remove that and you're looking at 10 receptions in 12 weeks.... and remember this was AFTER Welker had missed 2 weeks due to injury. Edelmen is a great receiver, but Welker's injuries are not results of wear and tear (like a RB breaking down from getting 32 touches in a game).... but more of a random occurrence due to his style of play. There IS a difference. There's no real reason to limit his catches as he's shown he can handle the workload. When Welker is healthy, HE is in the slot for the majority of the snaps.

The shoulder surgery was probably a direct result of wear and tear.

 

[Gopher State]

Welker 110 for 1050 with 8 tds is $$$$$$$$$$$ based on his ADP

 

[jude]

150 obv

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Going with 45.

You shouldn't predict injuries. But you should recognize the danger inherent in ones that already exist. Nobody with a heart transplant is going to run a 4:00 mile.

 

[jurb26]

I think many here are projecting too much for Welker. He will have a nice season but NE has got more/better alternatives around him this year then they have had in years past. Edleman has now emerged as a quality WR who could easily steal looks from Welker and NE drafted 2 super talented pass catching TEs. Not too mention that the knee can no way be 100% of what it was this early.

I'm envisioning something more along the lines of 75-85 receptions.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

This is why the Shark Pool is awesome. Thanks to this thread I am penciling Welker in for 45-150 receptions. I might even put some money on it!

 

[jude]

Going with 45.You shouldn't predict injuries. But you should recognize the danger inherent in ones that already exist. Nobody with a heart transplant is going to run a 4:00 mile.

welker isn't human, duh.

 

[jude]

Going with 45.You shouldn't predict injuries. But you should recognize the danger inherent in ones that already exist. Nobody with a heart transplant is going to run a 4:00 mile.

the fastest 4 minute mile ever recorded is like 3.45. I seriously doubt anyone in the nfl can do it. but if i was to venture a guess, it would be welker 6 months after acl.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Going with 45.You shouldn't predict injuries. But you should recognize the danger inherent in ones that already exist. Nobody with a heart transplant is going to run a 4:00 mile.

Some guys have a bigger heart than others. I would probably put Welker in that elite heart category. Yes he could get hurt again but he could just as easily play the whole year at close to 100 percent. Plus I think those types of personalities don't recognize the inherent dangers. If they did, they would have never made it in the first place because they never make it on their skills alone.

 

[billymays]

122

only receiver to ever have three 110+ catch seasons.....about to make it four.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Going with 45.You shouldn't predict injuries. But you should recognize the danger inherent in ones that already exist. Nobody with a heart transplant is going to run a 4:00 mile.

Some guys have a bigger heart than others. I would probably put Welker in that elite heart category. Yes he could get hurt again but he could just as easily play the whole year at close to 100 percent. Plus I think those types of personalities don't recognize the inherent dangers. If they did, they would have never made it in the first place because they never make it on their skills alone.

I don't know that heart has much if anything to do with structural soundness in the knee. And I think "failing to recognize inherent dangers", while a good thing from a bravery perspective, is what is more likely to cost him by pushing harder than he ought to.Do I want Welker next to me in a foxhole? Probably. Do I want to wager on him being the first guy in recorded history to perform like a god a few months after ACL surgery? Not really.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

130

Not really kidding and the YPC might be low, but honestly I could see it.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

this guy had 122 and missed 90% of the final game where , and struggled with some injuries limiting playing time. He is always open, and T brady is smart enough to "take what the defense gives him" and with Tate, the tow stud rook TE's and Moss taking so much attention from the D, I think he's gonna catch a lot of 3-6 yard passes, with possibilities to break many of those based on his skillz.This guy is inhuman. He's a machine. And the coaches and QB's love him. How does he not at least get 100 (sans another injury)

 

[Todem]

92 1045 yards 6 TD's

 

[[icon]]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

this guy had 122 and missed two full games plus 90% of the final game where , and struggled with some injuries limiting playing time. He is always open, and T brady is smart enough to "take what the defense gives him" and with Tate, the tow stud rook TE's and Moss taking so much attention from the D, I think he's gonna catch a lot of 3-6 yard passes, with possibilities to break many of those based on his skillz.

This guy is inhuman. He's a machine. And the coaches and QB's love him. How does he not at least get 100 (sans another injury)

Fixed and You people said to project out at 16 teams.

At 16 games it is asinine to project a drop from 140+ catches to 85 catches.

120? sure.

110? Probably.

100? Maybe.

90? Doubful.

85? Not a chance.

 

[jurb26]

120? sure.

110? Probably.

100? Maybe.

90? Doubful.

85? Not a chance.

 

[[icon]]

120? sure.

110? Probably.

100? Maybe.

90? Doubful.

85? Not a chance.

Just to clarify.. .this thread assumes 16 games. If he gets injured then of course there is a chance he'll catch 85 balls (or less depending on the timing and severity of the injury). However if we're talking 16 game projections I stand by my little chart there

 

[Swanny]

In a ppr league, I think I'd sign up for 90-100 catches, 1100+ yds, with 5-6 TDs. That makes him a borderline top-10 WR. After AJ, Moss, Wayne, Calvin, Austin, Roddy, and Marshall the next two guys I'd be looking at are DJax and Jennings. I'm just not sure I feel good about either of those guys catching 85+ balls. The yardage will probably be there to make up for the receptions, but still. And I think I'm staying away from Fitz.

The fact that Welker had 123 catches in essentially 13 games is just absurd. Again, even if those numbers drop off a little bit his consistency is amazing. Brady has been dropping to the late 2nd/early 3rd rounds in most of the mocks I've been doing and in PPR leagues where passing TDs are worth 6 pts, the combo of Brady/Welker to go with a big stud RB seems awfully scary to me. I know I wouldn't want to line up against that.

 

[Swanny]

Welker 110 for 1050 with 8 tds is $$$$$$$$$$$ based on his ADP

At his ADP, he absolutely is money. Problem is, I'm not going to be in a position to take him at his ADP. I'd have to take him between picks 23-26 if I want him. He hasn't made it back to me in Round 4 in any of the mocks I've done, and I know guys in my league love him. Seems really high to take him at 23-26, but again, in a ppr league I can't think of many receivers after the top 7-8 (who will all be off the board by the end of the 2nd round) that I feel better about having. Maybe Desean Jackson, but probably not Jennings. And DJax might not even make it to me in Round 2.

 

[Thorn]

Why would you assume 16 games?

 

[Swanny]

Why would you assume 16 games?

Well, I really don't believe that he's more likely to suffer a season-ending injury because of this one. I could be wrong, but if anything, I think it could nag him and limit his effectiveness - which is the part that is built into my question.If do I take Welker, I plan on taking Edelman a round earlier than his ADP. Edelman is no Welker, but he'll still make a very nice PPR receiver.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Why would you assume 16 games?

This is what I'm wondering.I could chime in and say "120" or whatever. But the far more valuable contribution to such a discussion is the injection of a little sanity.I think it's possible Toby Gerhardt would have pretty decent numbers if he started 16 games for the Vikes. But I won't follow that up by saying that I therefore think he's a 4th round value. Because the odds of it seem awfully slim to me.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Why would you assume 16 games?

This is what I'm wondering.I could chime in and say "120" or whatever. But the far more valuable contribution to such a discussion is the injection of a little sanity.I think it's possible Toby Gerhardt would have pretty decent numbers if he started 16 games for the Vikes. But I won't follow that up by saying that I therefore think he's a 4th round value. Because the odds of it seem awfully slim to me.

that makes no sense

 

[Thorn]

Why would you assume 16 games?

This is what I'm wondering.I could chime in and say "120" or whatever. But the far more valuable contribution to such a discussion is the injection of a little sanity.I think it's possible Toby Gerhardt would have pretty decent numbers if he started 16 games for the Vikes. But I won't follow that up by saying that I therefore think he's a 4th round value. Because the odds of it seem awfully slim to me.

that makes no sense

It's just an odd variable to take out of the equation. Do you project all players at 16 games? Why not account for those who are older or with injury histories?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

120? sure.

110? Probably.

100? Maybe.

90? Doubful.

85? Not a chance.

Just to clarify.. .this thread assumes 16 games. If he gets injured then of course there is a chance he'll catch 85 balls (or less depending on the timing and severity of the injury). However if we're talking 16 game projections I stand by my little chart there

I think you are looking at it in terms of black and white. There is a lot of grey here. That being, that he may not be 100%. I think everyone agrees that if he were surely 100%, and fully back to pre-injury form, that he'd pick up right where he left off. The problem is, I think it will take some time to get "back" physically and mentally.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Why would you assume 16 games?

This is what I'm wondering.I could chime in and say "120" or whatever. But the far more valuable contribution to such a discussion is the injection of a little sanity.I think it's possible Toby Gerhardt would have pretty decent numbers if he started 16 games for the Vikes. But I won't follow that up by saying that I therefore think he's a 4th round value. Because the odds of it seem awfully slim to me.

that makes no sense

Hi. It's because the likelihood Toby starts 16 games for the Vikes is about the same as the likelihood Welker does so for the Pats. Except here in Sharkpoolland, where apparently, catastrophic injuries have less lingering effect if the injuree is a fan favorite.I guess when in Rome.Ahem.I hereby rescind all my previous and negative thoughts on Wes Welker. I was a fool and a boob to discount his hydra-like regenerative powers, and throw myself upon your statistical mercies.My new projections: 162 receptions for 1723 yards and 4 TD's.

 

[Swanny]

Ok, would it make you guys feel better if I asked, "How many receptions will Welker and Edelman combine for this season?"

If Welker can play, Edelman is going to be almost a complete non-factor imo. And if I take Welker, I will make sure I get Edelman. Let's go with this question instead then.

 

[Thorn]

Ok, would it make you guys feel better if I asked, "How many receptions will Welker and Edelman combine for this season?"If Welker can play, Edelman is going to be almost a complete non-factor imo. And if I take Welker, I will make sure I get Edelman. Let's go with this question instead then.

Actually that makes a lot of sense as to why you phrased it that way.

 

[shnikies]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

My heart says 100+ but my head says under 90. Over/under on 100 reeks of a sucker bet.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Ok, would it make you guys feel better if I asked, "How many receptions will Welker and Edelman combine for this season?"If Welker can play, Edelman is going to be almost a complete non-factor imo. And if I take Welker, I will make sure I get Edelman. Let's go with this question instead then.

I think you phrased it fine. And I think your plan is fine.I highly support taking Edelman if you also take Welker.I also happen to be one of the few that seems to support taking Edelman if you DON'T take Welker, because I firmly believe he ends the year with more points than Wes. But I imagine Welker will go full bore as long as he can, and there's probably no good reason to assume fewer than 6-10 receptions per week for as long as he can stay on the field. Guy's a warrior. Just the fact that he's in the lineup is testament to that.

 

[David Yudkin]

I would say 80-85. The Pats won't play him as much as he did in recent years and they don't need to. They have other options. I don't think he'll play every week as something nagging will happen (like last year before the final week). Even if he did, I think he will be used more situationally than in the past and they will limit the number of plays he's on the field.

NE won't win a title in Sept or Oct. Reduced workload in the first half of the year, ramp him up over the last half of the season.

 

[Todem]

I would say 80-85. The Pats won't play him as much as he did in recent years and they don't need to. They have other options. I don't think he'll play every week as something nagging will happen (like last year before the final week). Even if he did, I think he will be used more situationally than in the past and they will limit the number of plays he's on the field.NE won't win a title in Sept or Oct. Reduced workload in the first half of the year, ramp him up over the last half of the season.

I can see that happening...and hauling in 80-85 balls is a very good year in PPR. Still think he goes above 90 though.

 

[Swanny]

I would say 80-85. The Pats won't play him as much as he did in recent years and they don't need to. They have other options. I don't think he'll play every week as something nagging will happen (like last year before the final week). Even if he did, I think he will be used more situationally than in the past and they will limit the number of plays he's on the field.NE won't win a title in Sept or Oct. Reduced workload in the first half of the year, ramp him up over the last half of the season.

So yeah, I wouldn't mind at all if he took a few weeks off, but playing situationally would be be a KILLER.

 

[David Yudkin]

I would say 80-85. The Pats won't play him as much as he did in recent years and they don't need to. They have other options. I don't think he'll play every week as something nagging will happen (like last year before the final week). Even if he did, I think he will be used more situationally than in the past and they will limit the number of plays he's on the field.NE won't win a title in Sept or Oct. Reduced workload in the first half of the year, ramp him up over the last half of the season.

So yeah, I wouldn't mind at all if he took a few weeks off, but playing situationally would be be a KILLER.

NE now has Hernandez, Gronk, Tate, and Edelman to fill the void if Welker comes out for a series or two or if they want to do different things in the red zone. The dire need to have him out there all the time may have gone away.We have not seen how Welker respons to playing for more than a few plays or a series or two a game. So, yeah, he looks great so far, we have no idea if he can handle being in all almost every snap like last year.Edelman (if healthy in his own right) has shown he can run the same package of plays as Welker and sometimes perhaps better than Welker. NE could be headed to more of a share the wealth mentality than the last couple of seasons.

 

[[icon]]

I think you are looking at it in terms of black and white. There is a lot of grey here. That being, that he may not be 100%. I think everyone agrees that if he were surely 100%, and fully back to pre-injury form, that he'd pick up right where he left off. The problem is, I think it will take some time to get "back" physically and mentally.

Ordinarily I'd agree but have you watched him in the preseason? (not being sarcastic/confrontational... serious question) I'm a lifer Pats fan who's not missed a snap of his career and I'll say he's not looking tentative or much (if any) slower at all. Another factor that he is indeed in a contract year... meaning that unless something gets worked out early on (I'm not sure that's going to happen) then he is going to want the ball early and often and given his relationship with Brady I see no reason why that won't happen. Now, of course I don't think he's going to pick back up at the 140 reception pace he was on last year... but I do think a 20-30% reduction (playing time, sharing the wealth) is reasonable.