How many balls does Welker catch this season? (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

I think you are looking at it in terms of black and white. There is a lot of grey here. That being, that he may not be 100%. I think everyone agrees that if he were surely 100%, and fully back to pre-injury form, that he'd pick up right where he left off. The problem is, I think it will take some time to get "back" physically and mentally.

Ordinarily I'd agree but have you watched him in the preseason? (not being sarcastic/confrontational... serious question) I'm a lifer Pats fan who's not missed a snap of his career and I'll say he's not looking tentative or much (if any) slower at all. Another factor that he is indeed in a contract year... meaning that unless something gets worked out early on (I'm not sure that's going to happen) then he is going to want the ball early and often and given his relationship with Brady I see no reason why that won't happen. Now, of course I don't think he's going to pick back up at the 140 reception pace he was on last year... but I do think a 20-30% reduction (playing time, sharing the wealth) is reasonable.

Isnt he signed through 2011?

 

[Swanny]

So I'm just curious, would anyone here roll the dice on Welker at picks 23-26 overall in a ppr, or just accept the fact that you're not in a position to take him and let someone else take him in rounds 3-4? He's absolutely not making it to picks 47-48 in my leagues.

Let's say these WRs are gone: AJ, Moss, Wayne, Austin, Roddy, Calvin, Marshall.

DJax, Jennings, Fitz, Colston over Welker? All of them? I'm just not sold those guys are going to put up more fantasy points over Welker. I'm not even sure that Calvin and Marshall are, to be honest. I'd take any of the top 5, but after that Welker starts getting into the mix for me.

 

[[icon]]

Isnt he signed through 2011?

You are correct. Brain fart on my end. I was thinking about the behind the scenes discussions going on regarding reworking/extending his contract. 2010: $1.9 million (+ $250,000 roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus), 2011: $2.15 million (+ $250,000 roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus),

 

[David Yudkin]

So I'm just curious, would anyone here roll the dice on Welker at picks 23-26 overall in a ppr, or just accept the fact that you're not in a position to take him and let someone else take him in rounds 3-4? He's absolutely not making it to picks 47-48 in my leagues.Let's say these WRs are gone: AJ, Moss, Wayne, Austin, Roddy, Calvin, Marshall.DJax, Jennings, Fitz, Colston over Welker? All of them? I'm just not sold those guys are going to put up more fantasy points over Welker. I'm not even sure that Calvin and Marshall are, to be honest. I'd take any of the top 5, but after that Welker starts getting into the mix for me.

IMO, Welker is 6 months post surgery (probably 7 months by the start of the season). To expect a guy to come back 100% in what is essentially early compared to others with similar injuries is asking A LOT. I personally wouldn't want the risk of taking Welker as the WR8.From people that have seen him up close then and now, I have heard he is slower, not as fluid, and his cuts are not as sharp. I am not sure that that will get him open as much as previously or if he will be able to shake defenders for an extra 10 yards like in the past.He did look good on the seam route last night, but he was wide open and Brady hit him in stride. Shorter routes are more his thing, and I see some of those going for very little yardage. But clearly that's a guess.

 

[munchkin]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

Edelman plays the same position as welker and did quite well in Welker's absence in weeks 2/3 last season. However... what happened as soon as welker returned? He averaged just over 1 reception per game up until Welker's 2nd injury in week 17. About HALF of those receptions (6) came in garbage time in the 59-0 massacre of the Titans in week 6. Remove that and you're looking at 10 receptions in 12 weeks.... and remember this was AFTER Welker had missed 2 weeks due to injury. Edelmen is a great receiver, but Welker's injuries are not results of wear and tear (like a RB breaking down from getting 32 touches in a game).... but more of a random occurrence due to his style of play. There IS a difference. There's no real reason to limit his catches as he's shown he can handle the workload. When Welker is healthy, HE is in the slot for the majority of the snaps.

That was then and this is now. Edelman was learning a new position last year and has shown he's done a darn good job of it. You can't ignore Welker's injury and on-going recovery. Edelman will get a chance to play; if he fails he will be on the bench again but he has shown too much to believe that he ends up on the Pine. Welker may be on the field for the majority of the snaps out of the slot but the Patriots are moving Hernandez around and he has shown he can be relied on; Gronkowski has been catching everything thrown his way in games and at practice, Tate isn't getting a lot thrown his way right now but he has been on the field a lot and Brady under-threw him last night on a deep ball. The Patriots will use all the weapons they have at their disposal and won't HAVE to rely so much on Welker; that's a good thing for the Patriots.

 

[videoguy505]

With his hands?

 

[[icon]]

With his hands?

Chin?

 

[videoguy505]

With his hands?

Chin?

See, that'd be a lot tougher. I'd put it at 2, max. He might bobble and bounce them, too.

 

[billyjohnson]

I would say 80-85. The Pats won't play him as much as he did in recent years and they don't need to. They have other options. I don't think he'll play every week as something nagging will happen (like last year before the final week). Even if he did, I think he will be used more situationally than in the past and they will limit the number of plays he's on the field.NE won't win a title in Sept or Oct. Reduced workload in the first half of the year, ramp him up over the last half of the season.

Finally....a little sense here....from an NE insider!!!Ok, now feel free to go back to the debates of whether or not Welker is human, who would win in a fight between chuck norris and welker, who owns coolest Welker bobblehead......etc.

 

[billyjohnson]

No way he catches 100!! 85 balls...assuming 16 games.

Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tate will bring Welker's numbers down to the 85 reception range. Over-thinking, not really, this team needs to find other weapons to keep Welker healthy. Brady will spread the ball around if he can trust the receivers he's throwing to and the players mentioned above have shown, so far, that they are reliable.

 

[flranger]

So I'm just curious, would anyone here roll the dice on Welker at picks 23-26 overall in a ppr, or just accept the fact that you're not in a position to take him and let someone else take him in rounds 3-4? He's absolutely not making it to picks 47-48 in my leagues.Let's say these WRs are gone: AJ, Moss, Wayne, Austin, Roddy, Calvin, Marshall.DJax, Jennings, Fitz, Colston over Welker? All of them? I'm just not sold those guys are going to put up more fantasy points over Welker. I'm not even sure that Calvin and Marshall are, to be honest. I'd take any of the top 5, but after that Welker starts getting into the mix for me.

IMO, Welker is 6 months post surgery (probably 7 months by the start of the season). To expect a guy to come back 100% in what is essentially early compared to others with similar injuries is asking A LOT. I personally wouldn't want the risk of taking Welker as the WR8.From people that have seen him up close then and now, I have heard he is slower, not as fluid, and his cuts are not as sharp. I am not sure that that will get him open as much as previously or if he will be able to shake defenders for an extra 10 yards like in the past.He did look good on the seam route last night, but he was wide open and Brady hit him in stride. Shorter routes are more his thing, and I see some of those going for very little yardage. But clearly that's a guess.

David, what % of snaps do you think Brandon Tate will play? Also, is he penciled in as the PR and KR?

 

[[icon]]

From people that have seen him up close then and now, I have heard he is slower, not as fluid, and his cuts are not as sharp. I am not sure that that will get him open as much as previously or if he will be able to shake defenders for an extra 10 yards like in the past.

Well, given this info (These guys are likely having a better viewpoint than me through my TV ) and my trusting Yudkin for always having the inside scoop, I'll take his word on this and assume he's still more in "recovery mode' than he appears. We'll see I guess. In full disclosure I'm only a Welker owner in one of my 4 leagues and it's not my "big money" league.

 

[munchkin]

So I'm just curious, would anyone here roll the dice on Welker at picks 23-26 overall in a ppr, or just accept the fact that you're not in a position to take him and let someone else take him in rounds 3-4? He's absolutely not making it to picks 47-48 in my leagues.Let's say these WRs are gone: AJ, Moss, Wayne, Austin, Roddy, Calvin, Marshall.DJax, Jennings, Fitz, Colston over Welker? All of them? I'm just not sold those guys are going to put up more fantasy points over Welker. I'm not even sure that Calvin and Marshall are, to be honest. I'd take any of the top 5, but after that Welker starts getting into the mix for me.

IMO, Welker is 6 months post surgery (probably 7 months by the start of the season). To expect a guy to come back 100% in what is essentially early compared to others with similar injuries is asking A LOT. I personally wouldn't want the risk of taking Welker as the WR8.From people that have seen him up close then and now, I have heard he is slower, not as fluid, and his cuts are not as sharp. I am not sure that that will get him open as much as previously or if he will be able to shake defenders for an extra 10 yards like in the past.He did look good on the seam route last night, but he was wide open and Brady hit him in stride. Shorter routes are more his thing, and I see some of those going for very little yardage. But clearly that's a guess.

David, what % of snaps do you think Brandon Tate will play? Also, is he penciled in as the PR and KR?

Edelman's been handling the PR duties with Tate the #1 (after last night) in KR duties; McCourty is backup at KR and has looked pretty effective.

 

[[icon]]

Now that we're 2 games in (including one week against a stout Jets Defense) let's project him out:

RECEPTIONS: 112

I think he can hold this pace.

YARDS: 816

YPC currently 7.4. Previous Pats years are 10.5/10.5/11. I think we can safely expect this to climb. I'll pull a number out of my ### here and say 9.5 on the year. Given the above reception projections, we're looking at 1050-ish yards on the season

TOUCHDOWNS: 24

NO way this holds pace but even if he only catches ONE TD every OTHER Game he'll finish with 11TDs this year. I think the real number will be around 12-14.

So.. in the interest of round numbers... I think a reasonable season-end statline for welker comes in around 110/1000/12