How many current Tight Ends will make the Hall of Fame? (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

LOCKS

Tony Gonzalez - The Man.

Antonio Gates - Already has HOF-worthy numbers.

Jermichael Finley -

NOT IMPOSSIBLE

Jason Witten - The catches and yards are piling up. But he doesn't find the end zone frequently enough.

Dallas Clark - He needs good health, he needs many more seasons like '09, and he needs Peyton to not retire.

VERY EARLY, BUT THE TALENT IS THERE

Vernon Davis

Brandon Pettigrew

Thoughts?

Edited to put Gates in his rightful "LOCK" category.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Gonzo and Gates

 

[Raider Nation]

Gonzo and Gates

NFL scouts need to spend more time at college basketball games.

 

[DoubleG]

Gonzo and Gates

This. Gonzo changed the way the position is played - then Gates perfected it. None of the others are really that close. Clark is excellent, but I think he's recognized (accurately) as a product of a great passing system, not due to any utterly amazing ability on his part.

 

[craxie]

Julius Thomas

duh

 

[Lash]

Gates and Gonzo are locks

no on Clark started too late and will be labeled as a "product of Manning era" ... Exhibit A will be Jacob Tamme's stats in Clark's absences

Witten not impossible because none of his production relies on speed and quickness so he may pull a gonzo and just pile up years

Vernon needs a QB to come along or he gonna have alot of 5TD seasons

and i love the young group we have right now, maybe a couple of them

 

[Lash]

i defined "lock" as who i thought was a lock to make it

thus IMO Gates is a lock

probably three below average 60/800/7 seasons and he is in

that's pretty much a lock

 

[thriftyrocker]

Gates and Gonzo are locks

Gates isn't a lock if he was forced to retire today. I don't believe that 529 - 7,005 - 69 gets him the yellow jacket.

If the toe/foot injuries continue giving him problems, nothing is certain.

How many TEs have more TDs? 1?

 

[Raider Nation]

i defined "lock" as who i thought was a lock to make itthus IMO Gates is a lockprobably three below average 60/800/7 seasons and he is inthat's pretty much a lock

Got it.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Gonzo is the only lock because if he retired today, he's already in the Hall.

Gates is the next closest but he still needs at least two more solid years. Heaven forbid a career ending injury happened to Gates, he wouldn't get in yet.

Jason Witten has an outside shot but he would need to stay in the elite category for another 4 to 5 years.

Dallas Clark, see Jason Witten and add injury tag to him making it even less likely.

No way on Vernon Davis and it's really hard to talk about Hall of Fame and guys like Brandon Pettigrew.

 

[gianmarco]

Gates has had 900+ yds in 5 of his 8 yrs in the league (would have been 6 if not for injury last year)

And for comparison, Tony Gonzalez has had 8+ TDs only 4 times in 14 yrs. Gates has 7 in a row.

Gates is in even if he never plays another down.

 

[adrenaline]

Gonzo is a lock.

I think Gates & Witten will make it too, if you look here they will have the numbers.

 

[Raider Nation]

I think Gates & Witten will make it too, if you look here they will have the numbers.

Hmmm. Gates has numbers which already stack up with HoF TEs like Newsome, Smith and Winslow, Sr.I stand corrected. He is a lock if he retired right now.

 

[sihaokills]

Gates, Gonzo are IMO going to be in for sure. Witten has a decent chance. Pettigrew???? Go with the Gronk

 

[gianmarco]

Gates is in even if he never plays another down.

I wouldn't bet my life that you are wrong. I just disagree.

Longevity is not the mark of a great career. I don't understand why adding 2-3 more seasons of average stats would put him over the edge for you? How does that change what he's done? His seasons have been ridiculously elite every year of his career except 2. Kellen Winslow, who is in the HOF, has 3 seasons that compare to Gates. That's it. 3 of 9 seasons. The rest of his seasons are average. This goes for other HOF TEs. Gates has 6 seasons like that.He's been exceptional for plenty long enough to warrant being a shoe-in.

 

[Raider Nation]

Gates is in even if he never plays another down.

I wouldn't bet my life that you are wrong. I just disagree.

Longevity is not the mark of a great career. I don't understand why adding 2-3 more seasons of average stats would put him over the edge for you? How does that change what he's done? His seasons have been ridiculously elite every year of his career except 2. Kellen Winslow, who is in the HOF, has 3 seasons that compare to Gates. That's it. 3 of 9 seasons. The rest of his seasons are average. This goes for other HOF TEs. Gates has 6 seasons like that.He's been exceptional for plenty long enough to warrant being a shoe-in.

See post 13. I'm on board now. Seeing his numbers against TEs already in the Hall sealed it.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

just two, Gonzo and Gates. there's a huge gap between their careers and everyone else at this point.

 

[cvnpoka]

witten likely retires with the 3rd most receptions and 4th most yards for tes. hes currently 4th in yards per game. i think he has a decent shot to make it.

 

[Tau837]

Gonzo and Gates

This. Gonzo changed the way the position is played - then Gates perfected it. None of the others are really that close. Clark is excellent, but I think he's recognized (accurately) as a product of a great passing system, not due to any utterly amazing ability on his part.

 

[moleculo]

The only HoF TE that you should compare these guys to (in terms of stats) is Sharpe. Pre-Sharpe - the TE position was more OL than WR, after Sharpe, its closer to WR.

To me, it's also easier to justify a particular player going in the HoF if they have won championships. I'm not even sure if Honzo has ever been on a playoff game winning team. The Chargers of Gates era, on the other hand, will be known for being great teams that ultimately come up short.

 

[comfortably numb]

The only HoF TE that you should compare these guys to (in terms of stats) is Sharpe. Pre-Sharpe - the TE position was more OL than WR, after Sharpe, its closer to WR.To me, it's also easier to justify a particular player going in the HoF if they have won championships. I'm not even sure if Honzo has ever been on a playoff game winning team. The Chargers of Gates era, on the other hand, will be known for being great teams that ultimately come up short.

meh, i think championships in the NFL are overrated in terms of HOF.It's basically the only sport where an offensive player doesn't play D or v/vmany consider Barry the greatest RB ever, and he only has 1 playoff win, 1 playoff TD, and 1 playoff 100 yd game

 

[moleculo]

The only HoF TE that you should compare these guys to (in terms of stats) is Sharpe. Pre-Sharpe - the TE position was more OL than WR, after Sharpe, its closer to WR.To me, it's also easier to justify a particular player going in the HoF if they have won championships. I'm not even sure if Honzo has ever been on a playoff game winning team. The Chargers of Gates era, on the other hand, will be known for being great teams that ultimately come up short.

meh, i think championships in the NFL are overrated in terms of HOF.It's basically the only sport where an offensive player doesn't play D or v/vmany consider Barry the greatest RB ever, and he only has 1 playoff win, 1 playoff TD, and 1 playoff 100 yd game

I'm not saying that post/season success is a requirement, but it most definately helps. Just ask Lynn Swann and Joe Namath.

 

[Manster]

witten likely retires with the 3rd most receptions and 4th most yards for tes. hes currently 4th in yards per game. i think he has a decent shot to make it.

Witten does everything well. he's a true team leader. he's not as physically gifted as some others. IF he can keep it goin for a nice long career he's got a good shot, imo.

 

[moleculo]

Looking at stats a little more closely...gates needs more years. IMO the modern T E stats need to be almost HoF worthy for a WR. Gonzo is a lock, Gates has a ways to go.

Yards: ranked 112th all time. Needs 3-5k more yards in his career to garner consideration.

Catches: ranked 97th. Needs about 250 more career catches.

TDs: ranked 33rd. Needs about 10-15 more.

None of these requirements are outside the realm of possibility, however if Gates career ended right now, he's on the outside looking in. Based on what he's done so far, i wouldn't call Gates a lock.

 

[Banger]

Gonzo and Gates

this. Those guys were at the top of the heap for nearly a decade. No one else close to that. There's certainly more talent but they need to prove it over a LONG period of time.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

 

[moleculo]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

Comparable yards & receptions, far fewer TD catches than Gates, one fewer all-pro seasons. Closer statistically than i would have guessed.I'll put him in the same bucket as Gates - not there yet, but a few more seasons of high-level play and/or being a key player on a championship team would do the trick.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

Comparable yards & receptions, far fewer TD catches than Gates, one fewer all-pro seasons. Closer statistically than i would have guessed.I'll put him in the same bucket as Gates - not there yet, but a few more seasons of high-level play and/or being a key player on a championship team would do the trick.

Witten is two full years younger than Gates. Witten isn't a lock if he never played again, but he's a lock in the sense that anything other than a completely unexpected career turn and he's a lock for Canton. He's 28 years old. Only three players in NFL history have recorded 600 catches by age 28 -- Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Jason Witten. Witten's a seven time Pro Bowler, and a good bet to hit 10 Pro Bowls before he retires. They can start working on his bust now.

 

[Sweet Love]

The only HoF TE that you should compare these guys to (in terms of stats) is Sharpe. Pre-Sharpe - the TE position was more OL than WR, after Sharpe, its closer to WR.

To me, it's also easier to justify a particular player going in the HoF if they have won championships. I'm not even sure if Honzo has ever been on a playoff game winning team. The Chargers of Gates era, on the other hand, will be known for being great teams that ultimately come up short.

At some point, the HOF voters will have to adjust to this, just as they have adjusted increased passing stats and rushing stats (see guys like Namath and Sayers). As pitiful as their stats may look today (players of a bygone era), they were much better and had a much larger impact than those stats would indicate in today's game. On the flipside, when every TE seems to be a lock for 500 yards, they have to sort through these guys and find the truly elite based on the time they played, and not against TEs of the past.In the end, I think this will hurt WRs shooting for the Hall in the future the most. I can easily see a TE with 8000 yards and 70 TDs, getting the nod over a WR with 11000 yards and 70 TDs, as many will point to the fact that the TE had more responsibilty away from the ball and still managed such great numbers.

 

[moleculo]

IMO, you can't use the term "lock" if you are assuming a few more years of production. "Lock" is only valid when looking at the completed body of work...what's in the books right now. Gonzo is a lock...he doesn't have to play another down, and he makes it. Gates & Witten need more, IMO.

 

[gkza]

IMO, you can't use the term "lock" if you are assuming a few more years of production. "Lock" is only valid when looking at the completed body of work...what's in the books right now. Gonzo is a lock...he doesn't have to play another down, and he makes it. Gates & Witten need more, IMO.

If you did not roster Gates or were not a SD Charger fan last season, you probably can not appreciate the awe inspiring performances Gates turned in. He was literally a grown man playing amongst boys. He could not be covered, or stopped even when all on the field knew the ball was coming his way. His numbers were so good, he was ranking amongst the best WRs in the game, let alone TEs. It will be an absolute shame if this current injury hampers him. If you break down his previous seasons on a game by game, or a micro play by play basis, its very difficult to argue him not being a lock, and the measuring stick for all TEs going forward.

 

[cvnpoka]

IMO, you can't use the term "lock" if you are assuming a few more years of production. "Lock" is only valid when looking at the completed body of work...what's in the books right now. Gonzo is a lock...he doesn't have to play another down, and he makes it. Gates & Witten need more, IMO.

i dont think gates needs any more downs. hes been the best te in the league for 7 years.

 

[moleculo]

Looking at ybe modern TE's in the HoF, I think the threshhold player is Kellen Winslow. 9 seasons, 3x all-pro, 5x pro-bowler, 541 rec, 6741 yards, 45 TD's. Obviously Gates exceeds all of that, so on the basis of statistical and awards comparison, Gates > Winslow. However, Winslow has that famous playoff game where he went 13-166 and blocked a critical field-goal...that's the kind of memoriable playoff success that can compensate for some statistical deficiencies. Therefore, I think that makes Gates = Winslow, which puts Gates as borderline in. Should Gates have his usual great season this year, he becomes a lock.

Eta: same for Witten.

 

[steelcityman]

Tony G and Gates. All others have a lot left to do IMO. A LOT!

 

[Wadsworth]

Anyone who doesn't think Gates is already a Hall of Fame TE has a very different idea of what the HoF is about than myself.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

69 touchdowns for Gates vs 36 for Witten is the main difference between the two. Also, Gates averages 2 yards more per catch.

Witten could get in if he continues his strong play for awhile longer. He's the better blocker, but he's also never led his team in receiving while Gates has done it 5 times and 4 times in a row. I think receptions are going to become less and less important, but yards and touchdowns will remain critical.

 

[geoff8695]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

THISWitten's numbers are incredible, and he's a legit all-around TE, not just a fantasy points compiler. Unless you are predicting a ridiculous drop off in the next two seasons, there's no way he doesn't get to Canton. From an NFL GM's standpoint Witten is the most complete and best TE of this generation.

 

[dharmapunk]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

I don't know about that, but I think he'll get a strong push from the traditionalists and get in based on his combined receiving and blocking ability. He's certainly the most complete TE of his generation.ETA: and blocking does matter. If it didn't, Sharpe would have been a first ballot guy. That was the only knock against him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I can't really fathom a reasonable career outlook for Witten that doesn't end up with him in Canton:

Rece Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD R/G Y/G2003 21 15 7 35 347 9.9 1 2.3 23.12004* 22 16 15 87 980 11.3 6 5.4 61.32005* 23 16 16 66 757 11.5 6 4.1 47.32006* 24 16 15 64 754 11.8 1 4.0 47.12007*+ 25 16 16 96 1145 11.9 7 6.0 71.62008* 26 16 16 81 952 11.8 4 5.1 59.52009* 27 16 16 94 1030 11.0 2 5.9 64.42010*+ 28 16 16 94 1002 10.7 9 5.9 62.6Career 127 117 617 6967 11.3 36 4.9 54.9
So let's speculate and give him as negative a career outlook as possible. How about 75% of his production the last 3 years to happen at ages 29-31? And then 75% of that from 32-34? And then a junk season?

Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD R/G Y/G2003 21 15 7 35 347 9.9 1 2.3 23.12004* 22 16 15 87 980 11.3 6 5.4 61.32005* 23 16 16 66 757 11.5 6 4.1 47.32006* 24 16 15 64 754 11.8 1 4.0 47.12007*+ 25 16 16 96 1145 11.9 7 6.0 71.62008* 26 16 16 81 952 11.8 4 5.1 59.52009* 27 16 16 94 1030 11.0 2 5.9 64.42010*+ 28 16 16 94 1002 10.7 9 5.9 62.62011 29 16 16 67 746 11.1 42012 30 16 16 67 746 11.1 42013 31 16 16 67 746 11.1 42014 32 16 16 50 560 11.1 32015 33 16 16 50 560 11.1 32016 34 16 16 50 560 11.1 32017 35 16 16 38 420 11.1 2Car 1008 11303 59
If Witten ended with 1,008 receptions, 11,303 yards and 59 TDs -- along with 7 Pro Bowls -- he'd be a lock for Canton. Shannon Sharpe is at 815--10,060--62. Ozzie Newsome -- the TE with the third-most receptions and receiving yards -- is at 662-7,980-47. Tony Gonzalez is at 1,069--12,463--88.

Witten, if I had to guess, will end up surpassing the following bench marks:

1,008 receptions

11,303 yards

59 TDs

7 Pro Bowls

He will probably miss some games along the way, but I think the low projections over the next 3 years factors that in.

 

[Sweet Love]

Chase,

Your point on Witten makes a lot of sense, and I would doubt he would be denied into the Hall. Taking the conversation a bit further, I think there is an obvious spike in stats for TEs that no one would deny. My question to you (or anyone else), given the data that you provided (real and projections) for Witten, is if he started his career in say 2009, and put up the same numbers you listed, do you still think he would be a lock for Canton. My guess is "no". He could still get in, but I think he will get in and some guys who are just starting their careers today (say Pettigrew) and other who are in college and HS, will be denied 20+ years from now, based on the fact that they are viewed as "typical" numbers. This has already started with the WR position where Cris Carter is still waiting and guys a tad less accomplished like Tim Brown and Jimmy Smith, may never see there way into the Hall, eventhough their numbers dwarft their predecessors. I think Witten gets in based on the fact that when his time comes, he will be in elite company, but 5+ years beyond that, there may be a bit of a logjam with equally qualified TEs.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase, Your point on Witten makes a lot of sense, and I would doubt he would be denied into the Hall. Taking the conversation a bit further, I think there is an obvious spike in stats for TEs that no one would deny. My question to you (or anyone else), given the data that you provided (real and projections) for Witten, is if he started his career in say 2009, and put up the same numbers you listed, do you still think he would be a lock for Canton. My guess is "no". He could still get in, but I think he will get in and some guys who are just starting their careers today (say Pettigrew) and other who are in college and HS, will be denied 20+ years from now, based on the fact that they are viewed as "typical" numbers. This has already started with the WR position where Cris Carter is still waiting and guys a tad less accomplished like Tim Brown and Jimmy Smith, may never see there way into the Hall, eventhough their numbers dwarft their predecessors. I think Witten gets in based on the fact that when his time comes, he will be in elite company, but 5+ years beyond that, there may be a bit of a logjam with equally qualified TEs.

For Witten, the bigger thing is the Pro Bowl berths. Yes, we can all poo-poo Pro Bowl berths, myself included, but they're a good proxy for the fact that Witten hasn't just posted good numbers but been a stud TE. He was TE1 last year in fantasy (non-PPR). and has fantasy ranks of 1, 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12. And this undervalues Witten because (1) fantasy football overvalues TDs and (2) fantasy football ignores blocking. I think -- as with every player at every position in every era -- you need to compare the player to the players of his era.But when you end up with a couple of seasons as the best guy at your position, a total of 5 seasons as a top-three guy at your position, and another five as a top-ten guy, you're a HOFer. And Witten is going to end up being that. It can't be, and never should be, just about stats. But Witten will have deserved the 10 Pro Bowls and multiple All-Pro honors he's received.That said, I do think the 1,000 catch mark will be a talking point, and will lock up his candidacy.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Stats arent the only thing that's considered for getting into the HoF. Fame is most accomplished through winning and Superbowls as well as breaking statistical records in both the regular season and playoffs. Gonzo is in because he owns the regular season record books. As immpressive as the regular season statistics are for some other current TEs, they dont neccessarily make them legendary enough to get into the hall. Sometimes a player needs to make a name for himself in the playoffs, especially the Superbowl.

 

[moleculo]

Stats arent the only thing that's considered for getting into the HoF. Fame is most accomplished through winning and Superbowls as well as breaking statistical records in both the regular season and playoffs. Gonzo is in because he owns the regular season record books. As immpressive as the regular season statistics are for some other current TEs, they dont neccessarily make them legendary enough to get into the hall. Sometimes a player needs to make a name for himself in the playoffs, especially the Superbowl.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Gates and Gonzo are the only TE's that defined their generation at the position. You rapid fire a question who was a great TE, and those names just pop into your head. The others mentioned don't come close to HOF status. Another way to think about it is, why isn't Tim Brown in the HOF, despite his long career and impressive stats? Answer: Not a generational signature talent, the equivalent of Edddie Murray in baseball, and further illustration of how baseball sucks in that they could induct an Eddie Murray into their hall. :X

 

[Manster]

Witten is just as much of a lock as Gates.

Comparable yards & receptions, far fewer TD catches than Gates, one fewer all-pro seasons. Closer statistically than i would have guessed.I'll put him in the same bucket as Gates - not there yet, but a few more seasons of high-level play and/or being a key player on a championship team would do the trick.

Witten is two full years younger than Gates. Witten isn't a lock if he never played again, but he's a lock in the sense that anything other than a completely unexpected career turn and he's a lock for Canton. He's 28 years old. Only three players in NFL history have recorded 600 catches by age 28 -- Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Jason Witten. Witten's a seven time Pro Bowler, and a good bet to hit 10 Pro Bowls before he retires. They can start working on his bust now.

Pretty impressive company there.Witten isnt explosive. He's just old reliable. Nobody is as good at getting up the field, using his body as a shield, making the catch, moving the chains. Then he comes back and makes a nice seal block to break a run. Thats what he does game in game out.

I think fans get too caught up in offensive stats. TE's need to be able to block too.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Witten is on the same level as Gates right now? Did I read that right? Sorry, but voters won't care about his blocking; they will care about his numbers, and 36 TDs in 8 NFL seasons is weak sauce for a supposed stud. Gates has almost twice as many TDs, more yards, and averages almost 2 yards more pre catch (in the same number of seasons). Gates is a lock right now; Witten is not.

 

[geoff8695]

Witten is on the same level as Gates right now? Did I read that right? Sorry, but voters won't care about his blocking; they will care about his numbers, and 36 TDs in 8 NFL seasons is weak sauce for a supposed stud. Gates has almost twice as many TDs, more yards, and averages almost 2 yards more pre catch (in the same number of seasons). Gates is a lock right now; Witten is not.

Respectfully disagree here.If you were to ask HOF voters and NFL execs which TE has been the most valuable over the last decade, quite a few would take Witten OVER Gates. Witten is arguably the BEST all around TE to ever play the game and I expect his all-around game to solidify his HOF bid. Voters for the HOF probably are a lot more concerned with his blocking than fantasy owners like us are. Even so Witten's stats are ridiculous through the first eight seasons of his career.Over the first 8 years of their careers, Witten has more receptions and yards than Gonzo, and more receptions with about 40 less yds. than Gates.The only thing he hasn't done as well as Gonzo and Gates through eight seasons is score TDs. And 36 TDs in 8 seasons is still comparable with other HOFers, Sharpe (34), Winslow (42), & Newsome(39). Definitely NOT "weak sauce"...

 

[Kanil]

Julius Thomasduh

This guy knows what he's talking about.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Look at the career of Ben Coates.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoatBe00.htm

we don't know what will happen with Witten in the future.

 

[geoff8695]

Look at the career of Ben Coates.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoatBe00.htmwe don't know what will happen with Witten in the future.

Coates in 10 seasons (158 games) caught 499 passes for 5,555 yards and 50TDs, and was a pro-bowler in 5/10 seasonsWitten in 8 seasons (127 games) has caught 617 passes for 6,967 yards and 36TDs, and was pro-bowler in 7/8 seasonsWitten's 8 seasons are already much better than Coates' 10, and Witten is only 29 yrs. old. The only thing anyone can say against Witten is that he isn't a basketball style, jump ballin', #1 red zone target on his teams. Otherwise, he is arguably a better all around TE than anyone in NFL history, and puts up as prolific offensive stats as any TE not named Gates. I think the Coates comparison is more of an argument in favor of, rather than against, Witten's HOF credentials.