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When do the good TE's break out? (1 Viewer)

TheWinz

Footballguy
I was reading the Isaiah Likely thread and @metoo said "TEs usually take time to develop". While I generally agree with this statement, I decided to dig a little deeper. In deciding how far to go back, I had to include Tony Gonzalez, because he leads all TE's in receptions, yards, and is 2nd only to Gates in TD's. To leave him off the list would be blasphemous. For the purposes of this exercise, I will call it a breakout if the player finishes TE12 or better. Also, to keep this post shorter, I am only including players with at least 2 top 12 finishes, unless they are still active. The active players will be in bold, because they have a chance to add to their top seasons. Let's go...

First rounders
1.4 - Kyle Pitts (2021) - TE6 in year 1
1.6 - Vernon Davis (2006) - TE12 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
1.6 - Kellen Winslow Jr (2004) - TE2 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.8 - TJ Hockenson (2019) - TE5 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.13 - Tony Gonzalez (1997) - TE10 in year 2, 15 more top finishes
1.14 - Jeremy Shockey (2002) - TE3 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
1.14 - Bubba Franks (2000) - TE6 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.20 - Noah Fant (2019) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.20 - Brandon Pettigrew (2009) - TE8 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.21 - Daniel Graham (2002) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.23 - Evan Engram (2017) - TE6 in year 1, 2 more top finishes
1.24 - Dallas Clark (2003) - TE6 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
1.25 - Dalton Kincaid (2023) - TE11 in year 1
1.29 - David Njoku (2017) - TE9 in season 2, 1 more top finish

1.30 - Heath Miller (2005) - TE8 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.31 - Greg Olsen (2007) - TE9 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
1.31 - Todd Heap (2001) - TE1 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
1.32 - Ben Watson (2004) - TE12 in year 3, 1 more top finish

Second rounders
2.34 - Sam LaPorta (2023) - TE1 in year 1
2.35 - Zach Ertz (2013) - TE10 in year 3, 5 more top finishes

2.35 - Alge Crumpler (2001) - TE8 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
2.35 - Hunter Henry (2016) - TE9 in year 4, 1 more top finish
2.38 - Zach Miller (2007) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.42 - Rob Gronkowski (2010) - TE11 in year 1, 8 more top finishes
2.42 - Mike Gesicki (2018) - TE12 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.43 - Kyle Rudolph (2011) - TE11 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
2.43 - Cole Kmet (2020) - TE8 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.45 - Freddie Jones (1997) - TE11 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
2.49 - Dallas Goedert (2018) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.55 - Trey McBride (2022) - TE7 in year 2
2.55 - Pat Freiermuth (2021) - TE7 in year 2

2.61 - Martellus Bennett (2008) - TE12 in year 5, 3 more top finishes
2.61 - LJ Smith (2003) - TE10 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.61 - Tony Scheffler (2006) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish

Third rounders
3.63 - Travis Kelce (2013) - TE8 in year 2, 9 more top finishes
3.69 - Jason Witten (2003) - TE3 in year 2, 11 more top finishes
3.81 - Chris Cooley (2004) - TE12 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
3.81 - Austin Hooper (2016) - TE6 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.85 - Jordan Reed (2013) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.86 - Mark Andrews (2018) - TE5 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
3.89 - Jared Cook (2009) - TE12 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
3.91 - Jermichael Finley (2008) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
3.91 - Visanthe Shiancoe (2003) - TE8 in year 6, 1 more top finish
3.95 - Jimmy Graham (2010) - TE2 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
3.96 - Dawson Knox (2019) - TE11 in year 3

Fourth rounders
4.98 - Owen Daniels (2006) - TE7 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
4.110 - Tyler Higbee (2016) - TE6 in year 7
4.114 - Randy McMichael (2002) - TE9 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
4.129 - Julius Thomas (2011) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
4.129 - Jake Ferguson (2022) - TE9 in year 2
4.137 - Dalton Schultz (2018) - TE11 in year 3, 3 more top finishes


Fifth rounders
5.146 - George Kittle (2017) - TE3 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
5.162 - Brent Celek (2007) - TE4 in year 3, 1 more top finish

Sixth rounders
6.175 - Delanie Walker (2006) - TE11 in year 8, 4 more top finishes
6.179 - Desmond Clark (1999) - TE3 in year 3, 2 more top finishes
6.204 - Darren Waller (2015) - TE2 in year 5, 1 more top finish

Seventh rounders
None

Undrafted Free Agents
Antonio Gates (2003) - TE2 in year 2, 12 more top finishes
Cameron Brate (2014) - TE9 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Chad Lewis (1997) - TE5 in year 4, 1 more top finish

Of the 59 players above:
9 broke out in year 1
27 broke out in year 2
14 broke out in year 3
2 broke out in year 4
4 broke out in year 5
1 broke out in year 6
1 broke out in year 7
1 broke out in year 8

Looking at the numbers above, 85% of TE's break out by year 3. If they don't break out by then, the odds are really stacked against them. After all that research, I don't think the results are shocking, and pretty much what I expected.
 
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I think that TE is just an insane crapshoot in fantasy. Over 20 years you only have a handful of guys who are even reliably top 10 for multiple years.

Like the thread idea, just feels like the position is so hard to predict.

And I say that not just to be flippant or an ***, but after diligently trying to figure out for many many years
 
Short version is if a TE who has a reasonable path to playing time has not shown you something by year two he likely never will.

Nuance matters, health of the player, his QB, etc,etc, but typically the biggest statistical growth occurs from year one to year two, as such I'm a big proponent of the second year breakout TE theory.

I have observed this for the last decade plus but if you look at least year the top fantasy producing TE's mainly took massive second year leaps and when they did not, you again just have to apply a little nuance. For instance Pitts changed QB and got hurt, one of the rare second year TE regressions. Engram got hurt in year two but even his per game was slightly better then his rookie season, not enough to qualify as a leap but improvement. Schultz barely played his second season, barely played two games and got two targets while dealing with an ankle injury, broke out the next season.

Other then the class of rookie TE's from last year I basically am putting Jelani Woods and Dulchich in the category of potential second year breakout TE's, view them as players taking similar paths to Schultz who was pretty close to not playing his second season. Dulchich played two games, never made it out the second half of either, Woods never suited up.

Going back to that first sentence where I said a TE has to show you something by year two or they likely never will. Again except for a situation like Schultz who barely played in year two due to an injury, I can't off the top of my head think of a single viable TE in fantasy who failed to either have a strong rookie season or took a sizeable growth in year two.
 
In the old days it was expected later than sooner, but the game has changed significantly with the passing game. It used to be that the passing game was predominantly dominated by WRs. and still is, but TEs play a bigger role than they used to. Sure there have been stud TEs since the 60s and more every decade thereafter, but I think everything changed with Gronkowski and Hernandez. Teams saw what two great TEs can do to a defense. Then TEs got more athletic and their receiving prowess became more important than their blocking in today’s game. So I think teams are looking for a TE that creates a defensive nightmare. Breakout? Sooner than later with the right player. You still have the big, slow, guys that don’t make a difference, but teams are on a constant lookout for the next receiving athletic TE that creates defensive mismatches.
 
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The other interesting thing here is how small the window is of TEs who really matter is.
Sure Mike Gesicki had top 12 TE seasons but was anyone who drafted Gesicki ever happy with that choice?
Were people ever excited to put LJ Smith or Zach Miller into their lineups?
 
So who does that make good to target? Looking back through my rookie drafts I only come up with Luke Musgrave and Jelani Woods. Anyone else?
 
The other interesting thing here is how small the window is of TEs who really matter is.
Sure Mike Gesicki had top 12 TE seasons but was anyone who drafted Gesicki ever happy with that choice?
Were people ever excited to put LJ Smith or Zach Miller into their lineups?
I don't think the window is small, but the TEs who matter long term are far superior to Gesicki, who eventually showed what he really is. He had shoulder issues in the past and that may have contributed, but his games played have always been 15 or higher. He had two seasons of 700+ yards, one having 6 TDs and the other 2 TDs, but that isn't an indication that he will be elite.
 
The other interesting thing here is how small the window is of TEs who really matter is.
Sure Mike Gesicki had top 12 TE seasons but was anyone who drafted Gesicki ever happy with that choice?
Were people ever excited to put LJ Smith or Zach Miller into their lineups?
I don't think the window is small, but the TEs who matter long term are far superior to Gesicki, who eventually showed what he really is. He had shoulder issues in the past and that may have contributed, but his games played have always been 15 or higher. He had two seasons of 700+ yards, one having 6 TDs and the other 2 TDs, but that isn't an indication that he will be elite.
I used window as the wrong term. I more meant range. Gesicki’s best years he wasn’t really helping you win, he was just keeping you a float. Most TE1s aren’t offering much. It’s usually like 3-5 guys a season who are actually giving a team a regular advantage. Sometimes it’s the same guys repeatedly like Kelsey, Graham, Gates, Andrews. Sometimes it’s guys with random years like Barnidge or Tonyan.
 
So who does that make good to target? Looking back through my rookie drafts I only come up with Luke Musgrave and Jelani Woods. Anyone else?
Dulchich is a good player if he can get over his hamstring issue.

Dulchich, Woods and Watson are three players I know that saw a hamstring specialist this off-season. Woods and Watson are getting the fluff treatment right now, both have been on the field in OTA's/minicamp. Meanwhile Dulchich has still been relegated to working off the the side and the only encouragment is Payton saying he should be ready. None of that is overly encouraging but maybe.
 
So who does that make good to target? Looking back through my rookie drafts I only come up with Luke Musgrave and Jelani Woods. Anyone else?
Dulchich is a good player if he can get over his hamstring issue.

Dulchich, Woods and Watson are three players I know that saw a hamstring specialist this off-season. Woods and Watson are getting the fluff treatment right now, both have been on the field in OTA's/minicamp. Meanwhile Dulchich has still been relegated to working off the the side and the only encouragment is Payton saying he should be ready. None of that is overly encouraging but maybe.

Wait Dulcich still can’t get on the field in OTAs? Seriously? I hadn’t heard that but don’t like it one bit.
 
So who does that make good to target? Looking back through my rookie drafts I only come up with Luke Musgrave and Jelani Woods. Anyone else?
Dulchich is a good player if he can get over his hamstring issue.

Dulchich, Woods and Watson are three players I know that saw a hamstring specialist this off-season. Woods and Watson are getting the fluff treatment right now, both have been on the field in OTA's/minicamp. Meanwhile Dulchich has still been relegated to working off the the side and the only encouragment is Payton saying he should be ready. None of that is overly encouraging but maybe.
I trade or drop anyone with a hammy now. Not 💯 but close to it.
How about you meno?
It just seems like a lived n learned fantasy tactic for me
 
Young guys getting entrusted gets me hmmm for future years.
Big third downs. Touchdowns.
Ya gotta watch n see they're not just the forgotten man getting a TD but smothered like a classic TE and making the catch anyway. I've been fooled by the young guy with 3-4 TDs that was quite open.

Parham Jr on the Chargers hasn't made the next step.
Whyle on the Titans made big catch after big catch in camp and made 7? key catches in-season til he got hurt. Vrabel set up the TE competition and he was winning until Chig woke up.
Chig's season was meh, yuck, blah then he suddenly woke up. He has a pattern of this in his brief career. He's a great athlete maybe like Jermichael Finley- ya gotta do it every week or we care less about your athleticism.

Giants have forever had Slayton as a backup in camp only for him to lead the team in receiving. I like their backup TE to do the same. He's just old school style brute with hands.
 
As a general shorthand rule, I've always given a bonus when doing rankings, to 2nd year RBs and TEs, and 3rd year QBs and WRs. Just always seemed like those tended to be the years guys (if not broke out) then came at great values.

This helps confirms that logic at TE and was nice trip down memory lane, as I've had a lot of these guys the year they broke out.

Also had Jake Ferguson breaking out in year 2 last year.
 
I accidentally left off a few TE's who recently had their first top 12 season, so I will add them in the first post.
 
I think I'd need to dive into the data before I'm ok declaring TE12 as a breakout season. Yes, I know we often have to make somewhat arbitrary bounders in these discussions, but I'm not sure WR12 is really a difference maker or someone who has made the jump to fantasy relevance. I tend to play in a lot of TE premium leagues and, until recently, if you didn't have one of the top 3-4 guys you were just streaming dart throws and JAGs. There has been an infusion of talent at the position in the past 2-3 years, thankfully with McBride, LaPorta, Bowers and a few others (Musgrave, Woods, etc). Maybe the talent pool broadens the 'elite' category of TEs, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
 
I think I'd need to dive into the data before I'm ok declaring TE12 as a breakout season. Yes, I know we often have to make somewhat arbitrary bounders in these discussions, but I'm not sure WR12 is really a difference maker or someone who has made the jump to fantasy relevance. I tend to play in a lot of TE premium leagues and, until recently, if you didn't have one of the top 3-4 guys you were just streaming dart throws and JAGs. There has been an infusion of talent at the position in the past 2-3 years, thankfully with McBride, LaPorta, Bowers and a few others (Musgrave, Woods, etc). Maybe the talent pool broadens the 'elite' category of TEs, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Agreed, but I had to set the mark somewhere, and chose to make it TE12, since most leagues tend to be 12 teams, and that would make TE12 a TE1. If not TE12 as the threshold, do you have a suggestion? I'm certainly open to diving into the data again.
 
I think I'd need to dive into the data before I'm ok declaring TE12 as a breakout season. Yes, I know we often have to make somewhat arbitrary bounders in these discussions, but I'm not sure WR12 is really a difference maker or someone who has made the jump to fantasy relevance. I tend to play in a lot of TE premium leagues and, until recently, if you didn't have one of the top 3-4 guys you were just streaming dart throws and JAGs. There has been an infusion of talent at the position in the past 2-3 years, thankfully with McBride, LaPorta, Bowers and a few others (Musgrave, Woods, etc). Maybe the talent pool broadens the 'elite' category of TEs, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Agreed, but I had to set the mark somewhere, and chose to make it TE12, since most leagues tend to be 12 teams, and that would make TE12 a TE1. If not TE12 as the threshold, do you have a suggestion? I'm certainly open to diving into the data again.
Good question. My first inclination is to go by standard deviation of points total (or maybe ppg might be more relevant), but I'll need to dig into it a little more. In one sample TEP league I'm in, the mean of the top 24 (arbitrary) TE total points scored for 2023 was approximately 155pts. Standard deviation of that sample set was aproximately 43 pts. The TEs who exceeded 1 standard deviation from the mean were 6 players (LaPorta, Engram, Kelsey, Hock, Kittle, Njoku). For reference, the top 15% of scores are above the 1 standard deviation mark in this sample.

I'll have to think about it a bit to figure out if SD is a good measure of where players break out. Great discussion, though. Thanks!
 
Using average PPG, which kinda takes into account injuries and whatnot, yields similar results. 7 TEs above the 1 standard deviation mark (Kelce, Hock, LaPorta, Engram, Andrews, Kittle, Njoku). That makes sense because Andrews was out for the last 6 weeks + bye of the season. In this league mean was 10.09ppg and the sd was 2.67ppg. TE11, TE 12 (Schultz and Goedert), and below were under the mean.
 
TE11, TE 12 (Schultz and Goedert), and below were under the mean.
which demonstrates the value of the top five

however, I think getting a top 5 is over-rated. In the two leagues that i won last year, my TEs were Njoku and Goedert in one and Freiermuth and Pitts in the other.
 
Nice job by the OP setting this up.

The results look similar a to last time we did this. The TE break out in year 2 or 3 and its somewhat rare for them to break out later than that although there are some examples.

An * belongs with Kellen Winslow who broke his leg rookie season then had a motocycle accident which caused a ACL injury and he lost his whole 2nd season because of that.

Im pretty confident he would have broken out earlier if not for the injuries.

I remember trading him away after the 2nd injury. Just too much drama with the soldiers start to his career.
 
Would be interesting to see how many of these get lost if we do it on PPG and if that adjusts any findings.
In FFPC scoring Njoku was TE17 in PPG compared to TE9 in total pts. Big difference. Also Njoku was like a 6th year break out guy. He did nothing is 3rd, 4th and 5th years and his year 6 matched his year 2 stats almost identically but instead of being 17th in PPG he was 8th despite similar stats. In 2018 he was 10.8 PPG in FFPC scoring and in 2022 was 12.4 PPG (These stats do not count the final week of the season since we don't play fantasy then and many teams rest their players)
 
Looks like PPG comes up quite a bit in the discussion. A nice round number would be 10 PPG. Also, a minimum number of games has to apply as well, and 10 sounds just fine. Using these numbers, it would kick Dalton Kincaid out of the breakout list, even though he just had the 4th most catches ever for a rookie TE. If I increase the PPG to 11, it would kick Trey McBride off the list as well, and I'm just not willing to say 81/825/3 (10.7 PPG) isn't a breakout season for a year 2 guy. As I typed that I came up with an idea. What if we call it a breakout if a rookie has 10 PPG, but then the PPG increases each year to qualify? Year 2 can be 10.5 PPG, years 3 & 4 can be 10.75, and years 5 and up will be 11 PPG. As I said above, a player would have to play in a minimum of 10 games for it to qualify as a season. That way, as @Biabreakable said, it would turn Winslow's 3rd yr into his rookie season, which it really was. I'm heading to work now, but will post some new breakout list in this thread later, for discussion.
 
Using criteria from the post just above, here are the new (and improved?) breakout TE's. This time, I will only include retired or currently unrostered players if they met the breakout criteria in at least 3 seasons. I am only bolding the TE's with at least 3 breakout seasons. That should help separate those who have already produced with those who still have something to prove. For all we know, Sam LaPorta is a one-hit wonder!

TE's who broke out in their rookie season
Sam LaPorta - 13.8 PPG in 2023 - drafted 2.34 - 1 qualifying season
Kellen Winslow Jr - 12.2 PPG in 2006 - drafted 1.6 (played only 2 games in 2004 and missed 2005, so I will call this his rookie season) - 3 qualifying seasons
Travis Kelce - 11.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.63 (played only 1 special teams snap in 2013, so I will call this his rookie season) - 10 qualifying seasons
Jeremy Shockey - 11.7 PPG in 2002 - drafted 1.14 - 4 qualifying seasons
Evan Engram - 11.6 PPG in 2017 - drafted 1.23 - 3 qualifying seasons

Kyle Pitts - 10.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.4 - 1 qualifying season
Aaron Hernandez - 10.1 PPG in 2010 - drafted 4.113 - 3 qualifying seasons

TE's who broke out in their 2nd season
Rob Gronkowski - 20.7 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.42 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jimmy Graham - 18.5 PPG in 2011 - drafted 3.95 - 6 qualifying seasons
Antonio Gates - 17.0 PPG in 2004 - UDFA - 10 qualifying seasons
George Kittle - 16.0 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Mark Andrews - 13.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.86 - 5 qualifying seasons
Jason Witten - 13.8 PPG in 2004 - drafted 3.69 - 9 qualifying seasons
Todd Heap - 12.0 PPG in 2002 - drafted 1.31 - 3 qualifying seasons
Chris Cooley - 11.9 PPG in 2005 - drafted 3.81 - 3 qualifying seasons
TJ Hockenson - 11.0 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.8 - 4 qualifying seasons

Trey McBride - 10.7 PPG in 2023 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

TE's who broke out in their 3rd season
Tony Gonzalez - 15.1 PPG in 1999 - drafted 1.13 - 14 qualifying seasons
Hunter Henry - 12.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 2.35 (missed 2018, so 2019 was season 3 for him) - 1 qualifying season
Zach Ertz - 11.5 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.35 - 6 qualifying seasons
Robert Tonyan - 11.0 PPG in 2020 - UDFA (never played in his rookie season, so 2020 was season 3 for him) - 1 qualifying season
Dawson Knox - 10.8 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.96 - 1 qualifying season

TE's who broke out in their 4th season
Vernon Davis - 15.8 PPG in 2009 - drafted 1.6 - 4 qualifying seasons
Austin Hooper - 14.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.81 - 1 qualifying season
Dalton Schultz - 12.2 PPG in 2021 - drafted 4.137 - 1 qualifying season
Alge Crumpler - 11.5 PPG in 2004 - drafted 2.35 - 3 qualifying seasons
Dallas Goedert - 10.9 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.49 - 2 qualifying seasons

TE's who broke out in their 5th season
Dallas Clark - 12.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 1.24 - 3 qualifying seasons

TE's who broke out in their 6th season
David Njoku - 12.8 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.29 (4 games in 2019, so 2023 counts as season 6) - 1 qualifying season
Greg Olsen - 11.5 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.31 - 5 qualifying seasons

TE's who broke out in their 7th season
None

TE's who broke out in their 8th season
Delanie Walker - 11.7 PPG in 2014 - drafted 6.175 (missed most of rookie season, so 2014 was season 8 for him) - 4 qualifying seasons

Notes on specific players:
Jake Ferguson misses the cut, because he had 10.4 PPG in year 2
Rob Gronkowski had 10 TD's his rookie season (tops for all TE's in 2010), but missed the breakout cut because his PPG was 9.8
Darren Waller started his career as a WR, so technically he broke out as a rookie TE in 2019 with 13.9 PPG (this was also just the 2nd season he played at least 10 games)
I expect guys like Hunter Henry and Robert Tonyan (and others) to fall off this list, because I doubt they will have at least 3 qualifying seasons by the time they retire
Yes, I know I left of studly TE's like Kellen Winslow Sr, Ozzie Newsome, and Shannon Sharpe, but I just didn't go back that far.

A couple things I noticed while doing this...
- Of the 31 TE's above, 16 of them were either the 1st or 2nd TE drafted out of college
- 27 out of 31 broke out by season 4. Delanie Walker is Father Time and could still play if he wanted to.
- Kind of surprised how evenly distributed the breakouts were over the first 4 seasons
- With the exception of Tony Gonzalez, the bulk of the all time great TE's broke out by season 2
 

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