TheWinz
Footballguy
I was reading the Isaiah Likely thread and @metoo said "TEs usually take time to develop". While I generally agree with this statement, I decided to dig a little deeper. In deciding how far to go back, I had to include Tony Gonzalez, because he leads all TE's in receptions, yards, and is 2nd only to Gates in TD's. To leave him off the list would be blasphemous. For the purposes of this exercise, I will call it a breakout if the player finishes TE12 or better. Also, to keep this post shorter, I am only including players with at least 2 top 12 finishes, unless they are still active. The active players will be in bold, because they have a chance to add to their top seasons. Let's go...
First rounders
1.4 - Kyle Pitts (2021) - TE6 in year 1
1.6 - Vernon Davis (2006) - TE12 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
1.6 - Kellen Winslow Jr (2004) - TE2 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.8 - TJ Hockenson (2019) - TE5 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.13 - Tony Gonzalez (1997) - TE10 in year 2, 15 more top finishes
1.14 - Jeremy Shockey (2002) - TE3 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
1.14 - Bubba Franks (2000) - TE6 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.20 - Noah Fant (2019) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.20 - Brandon Pettigrew (2009) - TE8 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.21 - Daniel Graham (2002) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.23 - Evan Engram (2017) - TE6 in year 1, 2 more top finishes
1.24 - Dallas Clark (2003) - TE6 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
1.25 - Dalton Kincaid (2023) - TE11 in year 1
1.29 - David Njoku (2017) - TE9 in season 2, 1 more top finish
1.30 - Heath Miller (2005) - TE8 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.31 - Greg Olsen (2007) - TE9 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
1.31 - Todd Heap (2001) - TE1 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
1.32 - Ben Watson (2004) - TE12 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Second rounders
2.34 - Sam LaPorta (2023) - TE1 in year 1
2.35 - Zach Ertz (2013) - TE10 in year 3, 5 more top finishes
2.35 - Alge Crumpler (2001) - TE8 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
2.35 - Hunter Henry (2016) - TE9 in year 4, 1 more top finish
2.38 - Zach Miller (2007) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.42 - Rob Gronkowski (2010) - TE11 in year 1, 8 more top finishes
2.42 - Mike Gesicki (2018) - TE12 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.43 - Kyle Rudolph (2011) - TE11 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
2.43 - Cole Kmet (2020) - TE8 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.45 - Freddie Jones (1997) - TE11 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
2.49 - Dallas Goedert (2018) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.55 - Trey McBride (2022) - TE7 in year 2
2.55 - Pat Freiermuth (2021) - TE7 in year 2
2.61 - Martellus Bennett (2008) - TE12 in year 5, 3 more top finishes
2.61 - LJ Smith (2003) - TE10 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.61 - Tony Scheffler (2006) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish
Third rounders
3.63 - Travis Kelce (2013) - TE8 in year 2, 9 more top finishes
3.69 - Jason Witten (2003) - TE3 in year 2, 11 more top finishes
3.81 - Chris Cooley (2004) - TE12 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
3.81 - Austin Hooper (2016) - TE6 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.85 - Jordan Reed (2013) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.86 - Mark Andrews (2018) - TE5 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
3.89 - Jared Cook (2009) - TE12 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
3.91 - Jermichael Finley (2008) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
3.91 - Visanthe Shiancoe (2003) - TE8 in year 6, 1 more top finish
3.95 - Jimmy Graham (2010) - TE2 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
3.96 - Dawson Knox (2019) - TE11 in year 3
Fourth rounders
4.98 - Owen Daniels (2006) - TE7 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
4.110 - Tyler Higbee (2016) - TE6 in year 7
4.114 - Randy McMichael (2002) - TE9 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
4.129 - Julius Thomas (2011) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
4.129 - Jake Ferguson (2022) - TE9 in year 2
4.137 - Dalton Schultz (2018) - TE11 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
Fifth rounders
5.146 - George Kittle (2017) - TE3 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
5.162 - Brent Celek (2007) - TE4 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Sixth rounders
6.175 - Delanie Walker (2006) - TE11 in year 8, 4 more top finishes
6.179 - Desmond Clark (1999) - TE3 in year 3, 2 more top finishes
6.204 - Darren Waller (2015) - TE2 in year 5, 1 more top finish
Seventh rounders
None
Undrafted Free Agents
Antonio Gates (2003) - TE2 in year 2, 12 more top finishes
Cameron Brate (2014) - TE9 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Chad Lewis (1997) - TE5 in year 4, 1 more top finish
Of the 59 players above:
9 broke out in year 1
27 broke out in year 2
14 broke out in year 3
2 broke out in year 4
4 broke out in year 5
1 broke out in year 6
1 broke out in year 7
1 broke out in year 8
Looking at the numbers above, 85% of TE's break out by year 3. If they don't break out by then, the odds are really stacked against them. After all that research, I don't think the results are shocking, and pretty much what I expected.
First rounders
1.4 - Kyle Pitts (2021) - TE6 in year 1
1.6 - Vernon Davis (2006) - TE12 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
1.6 - Kellen Winslow Jr (2004) - TE2 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.8 - TJ Hockenson (2019) - TE5 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.13 - Tony Gonzalez (1997) - TE10 in year 2, 15 more top finishes
1.14 - Jeremy Shockey (2002) - TE3 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
1.14 - Bubba Franks (2000) - TE6 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
1.20 - Noah Fant (2019) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.20 - Brandon Pettigrew (2009) - TE8 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.21 - Daniel Graham (2002) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish
1.23 - Evan Engram (2017) - TE6 in year 1, 2 more top finishes
1.24 - Dallas Clark (2003) - TE6 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
1.25 - Dalton Kincaid (2023) - TE11 in year 1
1.29 - David Njoku (2017) - TE9 in season 2, 1 more top finish
1.30 - Heath Miller (2005) - TE8 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
1.31 - Greg Olsen (2007) - TE9 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
1.31 - Todd Heap (2001) - TE1 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
1.32 - Ben Watson (2004) - TE12 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Second rounders
2.34 - Sam LaPorta (2023) - TE1 in year 1
2.35 - Zach Ertz (2013) - TE10 in year 3, 5 more top finishes
2.35 - Alge Crumpler (2001) - TE8 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
2.35 - Hunter Henry (2016) - TE9 in year 4, 1 more top finish
2.38 - Zach Miller (2007) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.42 - Rob Gronkowski (2010) - TE11 in year 1, 8 more top finishes
2.42 - Mike Gesicki (2018) - TE12 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.43 - Kyle Rudolph (2011) - TE11 in year 2, 3 more top finishes
2.43 - Cole Kmet (2020) - TE8 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.45 - Freddie Jones (1997) - TE11 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
2.49 - Dallas Goedert (2018) - TE10 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
2.55 - Trey McBride (2022) - TE7 in year 2
2.55 - Pat Freiermuth (2021) - TE7 in year 2
2.61 - Martellus Bennett (2008) - TE12 in year 5, 3 more top finishes
2.61 - LJ Smith (2003) - TE10 in year 3, 1 more top finish
2.61 - Tony Scheffler (2006) - TE11 in year 2, 1 more top finish
Third rounders
3.63 - Travis Kelce (2013) - TE8 in year 2, 9 more top finishes
3.69 - Jason Witten (2003) - TE3 in year 2, 11 more top finishes
3.81 - Chris Cooley (2004) - TE12 in year 1, 5 more top finishes
3.81 - Austin Hooper (2016) - TE6 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.85 - Jordan Reed (2013) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
3.86 - Mark Andrews (2018) - TE5 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
3.89 - Jared Cook (2009) - TE12 in year 5, 2 more top finishes
3.91 - Jermichael Finley (2008) - TE12 in year 2, 1 more top finish
3.91 - Visanthe Shiancoe (2003) - TE8 in year 6, 1 more top finish
3.95 - Jimmy Graham (2010) - TE2 in year 2, 6 more top finishes
3.96 - Dawson Knox (2019) - TE11 in year 3
Fourth rounders
4.98 - Owen Daniels (2006) - TE7 in year 2, 2 more top finishes
4.110 - Tyler Higbee (2016) - TE6 in year 7
4.114 - Randy McMichael (2002) - TE9 in year 1, 4 more top finishes
4.129 - Julius Thomas (2011) - TE2 in year 3, 1 more top finish
4.129 - Jake Ferguson (2022) - TE9 in year 2
4.137 - Dalton Schultz (2018) - TE11 in year 3, 3 more top finishes
Fifth rounders
5.146 - George Kittle (2017) - TE3 in year 2, 4 more top finishes
5.162 - Brent Celek (2007) - TE4 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Sixth rounders
6.175 - Delanie Walker (2006) - TE11 in year 8, 4 more top finishes
6.179 - Desmond Clark (1999) - TE3 in year 3, 2 more top finishes
6.204 - Darren Waller (2015) - TE2 in year 5, 1 more top finish
Seventh rounders
None
Undrafted Free Agents
Antonio Gates (2003) - TE2 in year 2, 12 more top finishes
Cameron Brate (2014) - TE9 in year 3, 1 more top finish
Chad Lewis (1997) - TE5 in year 4, 1 more top finish
Of the 59 players above:
9 broke out in year 1
27 broke out in year 2
14 broke out in year 3
2 broke out in year 4
4 broke out in year 5
1 broke out in year 6
1 broke out in year 7
1 broke out in year 8
Looking at the numbers above, 85% of TE's break out by year 3. If they don't break out by then, the odds are really stacked against them. After all that research, I don't think the results are shocking, and pretty much what I expected.
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