How Many Fewer Games Does NE Win Now (1 Viewer)

[stevegamer]

I thought the Patriots would disappoint due to their defense falling off this year.

The gap between Brady and Cassell is far larger than say the gap between Maroney & your choice of backup RB, or one of their new DB's being replaced by another one - unless Cassell is a lot better than we can know.

One thing, I'm not sure if anyone has factored in is that a player - even a starter - can be below replacement level. For an example of this, see CB Jason David. However, you usually don't start a guy who is below replacement level - unless you either have a bunch of guys who are worse or unproven.

Sometimes starters going down helps you find what you have in other players - and the replacements are better. Therefore losing that starter would actually imporve your chances of winning more games, and that individual starter would actually make up less than 0% of Doug's 100% above - meaning that the good players could make up more than 100% of the total.

 

[thehornet]

Rememeber all of the relatively pedestrian projections for the Patriots when Moss was coming on board. Not too many envisioned anything close to what the pats actually did last year. If you did, congrats.

My point is this. Look how much Moss altered that team. A lot and he wasn't even their best player.

Now they lose Brady, their leader, their best player, the person the entire offense is built for and an MVP.

You can't tie stats to the amount of wins a team will get with or withour Brady. It's false logic to think that their is a mathematical solution to this type of thing. Like this presented earlier in the thread:

Here's one way to think about it. (Apologies to those who have already read this on my blog).

If they Pats lost all 22 starters today, they'd probably go, what, 2-14 or 3-13 using their current backups and street free agents. With Brady, Vegas had them at about 13 wins (it actually had them at 12 or 12.5, but I'm assuming that was factoring in the possibility of a Brady injury). That means all 22 starters are worth a total of 10 or 11 marginal wins. Let's say 11. Two wins is 18% of that.

Brady = 18%

Other 21 starters = 82%

So Brady is 18% of the Patriots and the other starters are on average worth 4% each.

Brady is the NE Patriots. Without them they are an entirely different team. They will be in closer games now a lot more and the element of luck is back in the equation. Anything can happen in the 4th quarter in tight game. The Pats will lose some of those games now.

 

[David Yudkin]

They will be in closer games now a lot more and the element of luck is back in the equation. Anything can happen in the 4th quarter in tight game. The Pats will lose some of those games now.

And IMO this is an ADVANTAGE to NE. They have thrived in playing (and winning) close games. In some of these threads I have pointed out that they won 25 games in their 3 title seasons by single digits.Sure, maybe they will lose some here and there (I certainly doubt anyone is suggesting they will go 16-0 again). Cassel won't be perfect, but he could do well enough to not lose, and that many weeks could be enough.One distinction that needs to be made is that in the majority of those close games, NE was the team ahead with others having to overtake them at the end of the game. IMO, if they remain in that position they will be fine. I realize they lost in that scenario in the Super Bowl, but I would think the majority of the time they will win those types of games.Certainly that's more opinion than fact, as the defense is different than in the past (and who knows when Cassel will turn the ball over in the worst possible time).

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I think they have a decent shot at winning 10 games. A lot will depend on how their defense develops over the course of the season. IMO, the lb's and secondary should get stronger as the year goes on and their defense will be better at the end of the season than it is now. Cassel needs to be good, not great for them to have a shot at the division and then who knows.

 

[-baller]

Assuming the Patriots are now without Brady for the year, how many fewer games to they win than if Brady had been there all season?J

I had them at 16 wins again, but now I'll downgrade them to 13 or 14.also, why do you put a J at the end of all your posts?

 

[MCguidance]

I have a serious question..if people are downgrading the Pats from, say, a 14 win team to 11/12 win team, then why are they not favored tomorrow? I know, the uncertainty. But that's basically saying that the Jets are a 11/12 win team themselves? Wasn't it the case that they were only pegged with 9 or so wins even with Favre at the helm?

I thought 14 wins this year for the Pats. I now think it's about 11. But I still don't think the Jets (and I'm a homer) are a 11 win team, maybe 10 wins now that they might be able to squeak a win against the Pats this year. We'll see.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I have a serious question..if people are downgrading the Pats from, say, a 14 win team to 11/12 win team, then why are they not favored tomorrow? I know, the uncertainty. But that's basically saying that the Jets are a 11/12 win team themselves? Wasn't it the case that they were only pegged with 9 or so wins even with Favre at the helm? I thought 14 wins this year for the Pats. I now think it's about 11. But I still don't think the Jets (and I'm a homer) are a 11 win team, maybe 10 wins now that they might be able to squeak a win against the Pats this year. We'll see.

My guess is that vegas expects the Pats to improve over the year.I voted "3". I still think the Pats make the playoffs.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I have a serious question..if people are downgrading the Pats from, say, a 14 win team to 11/12 win team, then why are they not favored tomorrow? I know, the uncertainty. But that's basically saying that the Jets are a 11/12 win team themselves? Wasn't it the case that they were only pegged with 9 or so wins even with Favre at the helm? I thought 14 wins this year for the Pats. I now think it's about 11. But I still don't think the Jets (and I'm a homer) are a 11 win team, maybe 10 wins now that they might be able to squeak a win against the Pats this year. We'll see.

Well, home field is worth about 3 points, and Tom Brady is worth what?I thought NE would win 12 games before Brady went dwon and now I think they will be doing exceptionally well to win 10.Cassels first start, on the road against a division opponent against a pretty good team; I think the line is right where it should be. NE could easily end up splitting (or worse) with both NY and BUF this year.

 

[MCguidance]

I have a serious question..if people are downgrading the Pats from, say, a 14 win team to 11/12 win team, then why are they not favored tomorrow? I know, the uncertainty. But that's basically saying that the Jets are a 11/12 win team themselves? Wasn't it the case that they were only pegged with 9 or so wins even with Favre at the helm? I thought 14 wins this year for the Pats. I now think it's about 11. But I still don't think the Jets (and I'm a homer) are a 11 win team, maybe 10 wins now that they might be able to squeak a win against the Pats this year. We'll see.

Well, home field is worth about 3 points, and Tom Brady is worth what?I thought NE would win 12 games before Brady went dwon and now I think they will be doing exceptionally well to win 10.Cassels first start, on the road against a division opponent against a pretty good team; I think the line is right where it should be. NE could easily end up splitting (or worse) with both NY and BUF this year.

Yeah, I get this. What I seem to be missing is that most people around here had the Jets winning 9 games on average, 10 max. Does the Shark Pool now think they are in line for more wins than that because of the Brady injury? Because it seems that if we aren't decreasing the Pats by more than two games, we can't possibly be inflating the Jets by 2 games, can we?

 

[maxwelledison]

I do think that a Patriots team without Brady is WAY better than a Colts team without Manning.

ABSOLUTELY. I was thinking that last night.The Colts without Manning fall apart. But I think the Patriots will be ok without Brady.J

Agree 100% on this point.I voted 3 in the poll. At this point I think the burden of proof is on those saying the Patriots will collapse completely without Brady. Personalities aside, the fact of the matter is they know how to run a franchise and I feel that the chances that they would have all their eggs in one basket is remote. This tells me they think Cassell can and will be competent. Given the coaching staff and the culture I think this is enough to get them to 10-12 wins. The true test will come when Cassell has to make a play in a big situation or keep his composure following a disappointing play/loss. This is what made Brady great and that is the hardest thing to replace imo.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I have a serious question..if people are downgrading the Pats from, say, a 14 win team to 11/12 win team, then why are they not favored tomorrow? I know, the uncertainty. But that's basically saying that the Jets are a 11/12 win team themselves? Wasn't it the case that they were only pegged with 9 or so wins even with Favre at the helm? I thought 14 wins this year for the Pats. I now think it's about 11. But I still don't think the Jets (and I'm a homer) are a 11 win team, maybe 10 wins now that they might be able to squeak a win against the Pats this year. We'll see.

Well, home field is worth about 3 points, and Tom Brady is worth what?I thought NE would win 12 games before Brady went dwon and now I think they will be doing exceptionally well to win 10.Cassels first start, on the road against a division opponent against a pretty good team; I think the line is right where it should be. NE could easily end up splitting (or worse) with both NY and BUF this year.

Yeah, I get this. What I seem to be missing is that most people around here had the Jets winning 9 games on average, 10 max. Does the Shark Pool now think they are in line for more wins than that because of the Brady injury? Because it seems that if we aren't decreasing the Pats by more than two games, we can't possibly be inflating the Jets by 2 games, can we?

I don't know that I agree with the premise that downgrading NE and upgraading NYs wins for their totals this year has much to do with NY being favored this week. The Jets have a much better chance of beating NE now (with Brady out) and that is all that really matters with regard to NY being favored this week. That was your original point, was it not?

 

[two_dollars]

I'll drop them from 14-2 to 12-4. No way they win less than 10 with their cakewalk schedule, and I think cassel will be serviceable. Don't forget Bill can still coach.

 

[Steeler43]

I had them 14-2. I think they can still win 11 or 12 games based on their schedule and talent base. As I mentioned in another thread, their season will now ride more on how well their defense does.

So Brady is only worth 2 wins for the Patriots?

Yes.Given all the other things surrounding that team from Cassel to schedule to talent to coaching. How many fewer do you think they'll win without him?J

At least 4 games, likely 5.If the Patriots win 10-11 games without Brady, I don't see how they wouldn't have won 15 with him.

Yep, Brady is only worth 2 wins...