How many spots doyou drop Smith in your WR rankings? (1 Viewer)

[PR Sparty]

(sorry if this was posted in the "smith punched a guy" thread, but I thought it would be good topic solo. mods please delete if redundant)

If you've got your eyes on WR's that you plan to snag late (you are a shark right???) do you look for value on S. Smith assuming he drops a great deal? He seemed to be getting much love this year because Jake's back and he's healthy, but was if he drops? He's 24 (WR8) right now, how low do you go before you consider him a steal even with the two games off? I wasn't before, but I may actually target him now assuming the other "headline readers" in my league cast him off.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I don't see why he would drop at all. His ppg doesn't change at all. There is no uncertainty about when he'll return.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Since its the first two games and not during week 15 and 16, i probably dont drop him at all.

 

[cstu]

I drafted him today over Housh, Burress, and Boldin. I figured I can easily fill put someone else in for a couple games and maybe sitting out the first couple games will help him last the season.

 

[Moniker]

I drop him a couple of spots, maybe 5.

Losing your first two games because you drafted someone that you KNEW wasn't going to play is borderline crazy because, let's face it, an 0-2 start in a real league is a partial death sentence.

To avoid losing those first two games you would have to adjust your early mid-round strategy and draft a capable WR to replace Smith, also not the ideal thing to do, imo, as you lose out on talent for a backup RB or a starting TE.

 

[BigRed]

None. Wasn't even on it because I know someone was going to pay more than I was willing. Still will too.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

4 wr spots - from 5 to 9.

 

[cstu]

I drop him a couple of spots, maybe 5.Losing your first two games because you drafted someone that you KNEW wasn't going to play is borderline crazy because, let's face it, an 0-2 start in a real league is a partial death sentence.To avoid losing those first two games you would have to adjust your early mid-round strategy and draft a capable WR to replace Smith, also not the ideal thing to do, imo, as you lose out on talent for a backup RB or a starting TE.

People tend to draft their first backup WR fairly early anyway, so it shouldn't make a huge difference in draft strategy. The questions should really be whether you first think you can draft a replacement WR for the first two weeks who will put up similar numbers to the guys you passed on and whether you think Smith will outscore those other WRs weeks 2-16. If you answer yes to both of those then you shouldn't drop his ranking.

 

[dcgangstas]

You don't drop him any spots at all. Smith is too explosive a player to drop out of the Top Ten WRs.

You can always get a late round WR (say Nate Burleson or Patrick Crayton) to fill in for those two games.

 

[poopdawg]

I'll still be drafting him around his ADP. Just means I have to suck it up for 2 games. With Delhomme back, he will be a beast. Im not taking a chance on missing out on him.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

 

[Avery]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

I don't understand, assuming redraft, how some would say a player wouldn't drop in their ranking given that he will now miss a portion of the season.Sure, he may be great value if many pass on him for his PPG of games played remains the same, but he has to drop some for he may help put those that draft him in an early hole... right?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think you drop him a tier which in a 12 team league drops him about a round or a round and a half.

For those of you saying you'd draft him where he was, I don't believe you. Why would you draft a guy in the exact same spot when he's going to miss 2 games.

He's coming off a down year, he' missing the first 2 games of this season, that's a lot of risk for a guy being picked mid 2nd round.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

no change what-so-ever.

 

[moose162]

5 spots

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

No real change in a regular league that has playoffs starting in week 14. However, in WCOFF I think you have to drop him down a little bit, since that's pretty much a sprint and playoffs start after week 11.

 

[purestrength]

No real change in a regular league that has playoffs starting in week 14. However, in WCOFF I think you have to drop him down a little bit, since that's pretty much a sprint and playoffs start after week 11.

. . . or the new FFOC millionaire leagues, which have a nine-week regular season and championship game in Week 10.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

 

[shredhead]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

0-2 isn't the end of a season, not by a long shot. I started 0-2 in my 12 team league and finished 2nd place. 1-2 in my 10 team league and won it. 1-2 in my 24 team league and won it. My 10 team league drafts in reverse order of finish. In mocks, I always have a better WR option (Owens or Wayne) at the 1/2 turn. Smith is always gone by the 3/4 turn. I had no hopes of getting him on my team this year, and now with the suspension, I still think the chances are slim. If my leaguemates pass on him, I will snatch him at the 3/4 turn. Doubtful that he will be there, but now there is a chance.

 

[KCC]

Can someone explain why it is you don't drop a player at least a couple spots when you are absolutely certain he is going to miss two games?? I'm baffled. I get that he's a stud WR who is explosive, but he just lost two games and a corresponding number of opportunities to demonstrate that explosiveness. If you're using a VBD strategy and you're rankings are based on projections, how can you not project fewer catches, yards, & TDs for a guy you know is going to miss part of the season than you had him pegged for when you thought he would be playing all the scheduled games?

 

[kerpow]

I drop him down by one or two spots. He's still in the same tier of guys but lower in that tier because he will score less points over the course of the season than I had previosuly projected.

If you say he hasn't dropped in value at all, its obvious that you haven't made any projections for him.

 

[Lord Lucan]

As I suggested in another thread, you only reduce his projections by the difference between what you expected from him in weeks 1 and 2 and what you expect those two weeks from his replacement in your fantasy team (i.e. your likely #4 WR).

 

[BertJones]

He gets dropped. Depending on the format, the question is where. One league I play in is a total points league. In that format, I won't even think about him until the 5th round of a 12 teamer.

In a H2D, I would think about him around 3/4, especially if I had a corner pick and could pair him up with another WR that by week 4 you could dominate with.

 

[Soaring Eagle]

definetly a few but he misses games against chicago and san diego which are tough defenses...this might allow you to get delhomme as a qb2 much later though which could be a huge value

 

[pollardsvision]

i dropped him from from 7 to 13. took away 13 catches, 150 yds, and a TD.

he'll represent value there (i'd draft him at 11), but he still has to drop. the bottom of the top-flight WRs seems about right. i won't take him when i can still get a comparable guy who won't miss the 1st 2 weeks. i'll take him before those that likely won't offer comparable weekly production.

 

[BigRed]

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Speaking of weak math, or should I say conclusions from it. So you're saying you're going to totally ignore WRs till the end of the draft then?Your 5 pts argument doesn't even make any sense unless you play in a total pts league vs head-to-head since 5 pts is only an average ie it will vary game to game.....and even then, if you don't think a 90 pt diff in players over the course of the year is much, good luck - you'll really need it. FF is a game of inches and 5 ppg is HUGE. A few small examples using last year's numbers - Team 2 is "only" about 90 pts behind team 1 by position:

Team 1

Manning

Edwards

Addai

Gates

Team 2

Cutler

Cotchery

L White

D Lee

And since most people are (were?) looking at drafting Smith as a WR1, the diff between him and some schlep WR is also probably huge and could easily make the diff between 2-0 and 0-2.....and in any really competitive league, starting 0-2 puts you in considerable hole not so easy to crawl out of. Add to that the risk of he and/or Delhomme getting hurt.......I'm amazed how high this guy was going and apparently still is.

 

[John Facenda]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

0-2 isn't the end of a season, not by a long shot. I started 0-2 in my 12 team league and finished 2nd place. 1-2 in my 10 team league and won it. 1-2 in my 24 team league and won it. My 10 team league drafts in reverse order of finish. In mocks, I always have a better WR option (Owens or Wayne) at the 1/2 turn. Smith is always gone by the 3/4 turn. I had no hopes of getting him on my team this year, and now with the suspension, I still think the chances are slim. If my leaguemates pass on him, I will snatch him at the 3/4 turn. Doubtful that he will be there, but now there is a chance.

Not the end of a season, but in my head-to-head redraft league our first 3 games are against teams in our division. Those losses are huge when it comes to tie-breaking for playoff spots at the end of the year.

 

[Sinrman]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Yep. He's missing 1/8th of the season due to suspension. So at best, you cut your projections by 1/8th, if not more. I think Smith is one of the best WRs in the game, but this incident really burns me...

 

[bcr8f]

I don't drop him. I hope when he returns he has something to prove. Even if I lose 2 games can still make the playoffs.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I think you drop him a tier which in a 12 team league drops him about a round or a round and a half.For those of you saying you'd draft him where he was, I don't believe you. Why would you draft a guy in the exact same spot when he's going to miss 2 games.He's coming off a down year, he' missing the first 2 games of this season, that's a lot of risk for a guy being picked mid 2nd round.

agreed

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

The math was correct - he clearly mentioned that he was taking the bye week into consideration as a 3rd missed week. 3 games is 25% of 12 games.

 

[BigRed]

I missed that - there are leagues w/12 game seasons? ?? what everybody makes the playoffs?

 

[tex]

Just because your #1 or #2 WR misses the 1st 2 games does not mean you will lose those games. Personally I always try to have enough depth to compensate for situations like this. Sure I'm not going to have another Steve Smith in the wings but hopefully, I can plug someone in for those 2 games who will get me enough points to be competitive and maybe even win the games.

 

[pollardsvision]

the real opportunity cost is not just smith compared to your WR4 for 2 weeks. it's that plus the QB or RB that you might've selected with the pick you used to get smith.

taking steve smith where you'd normally take him means you also won't have a drew brees or a brandon jacobs those 1st 2 weeks either. it's not just the WR1 that's missing, it's a 4th round pick that's missing. that hurts.

obviously, he shouldn't be avoided and there's value to be had. that value can't be realized if he doesn't slip though. smith will be productive starting week 3 and drafting him doesn't mean an 0-2 start, but his value does have to take a hit.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

 

[Gopher State]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

Very If you draft smith and lose your first two games by close scores, you put yourself in a big hole. I too will pass on Smith, let someone else overpay.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

Very If you draft smith and lose your first two games by close scores, you put yourself in a big hole. I too will pass on Smith, let someone else overpay.

So you would rather have a lesser WR for the remaining 14 weeks?

 

[hickbones]

This happened a few years back with Gates when he was suspended for 1 game (I think) due to his holdout. The guys in my league let him slip a round or two and I snagged him on the cheap. From experience, in that league at least, missing Gates in the first game was nothing compared to what he got me for the remainder of the season and especially at the price I got him.

Steve Smith definitely drops in the rankings now, but only in the sense that I will let all the others skip over him once and then I'll nab him for killer value. This lets me get a different stud where I should have drafted Smith and then I get him as an upgrade a round later.

btw, this totally depends on your league setup.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

Very If you draft smith and lose your first two games by close scores, you put yourself in a big hole. I too will pass on Smith, let someone else overpay.

So you would rather have a lesser WR for the remaining 14 weeks?

The other WRs in his tier will work just as well. I'm not saying drop him off the map. But I think it's a mistake to think these two games don't change things. They do.

 

[aburt19]

I really like Smth for 2008. But there is no way that I can leave him the same in the rankings with missing two games. There are other WR that are in the same

tier with him and I would have to draft those players ahead of him. My estimate now is that he drops 4 spots in the rankings and that probably translates to close

to 1 round.

Given the number of people who are not dropping him at all, that obviously means that I won't get him.

 

[jurb26]

I drop Smith from the top 10 with this news. He was barely in my top 10 to begin with anyway. Guys I'd rather have than Smith:

Moss

Wayne

TO

Edwards

Colston

Ch. Johnson

Housh

A. Johnson

Fitz

Burress

Holt

R. Williams

Boldin

Marshall *depending on what happens with him.

 

[cstu]

Can someone explain why it is you don't drop a player at least a couple spots when you are absolutely certain he is going to miss two games?? I'm baffled. I get that he's a stud WR who is explosive, but he just lost two games and a corresponding number of opportunities to demonstrate that explosiveness. If you're using a VBD strategy and you're rankings are based on projections, how can you not project fewer catches, yards, & TDs for a guy you know is going to miss part of the season than you had him pegged for when you thought he would be playing all the scheduled games?

The questions should really be whether you first think you can draft a replacement WR for the first two weeks who will put up similar numbers to the guys you passed on and whether you think Smith will outscore those other WRs weeks 2-16. If you answer yes to both of those then you shouldn't drop his ranking.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

I know u are a buckeye. So this is understandible. I'll break it down to you.If the suspension is 2 games, and the bye is one what is the combined games of your FFL season you can't start him. HINT the answer is not 2. B/c 2+1 is THREE.now three games out of a 14 week regular season.... nah, I don't think you are ready for fractions and decimal points yet...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too earlyfor his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as tjere are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

 

[Burning Sensation]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

Very If you draft smith and lose your first two games by close scores, you put yourself in a big hole. I too will pass on Smith, let someone else overpay.

So you would rather have a lesser WR for the remaining 14 weeks?

The other WRs in his tier will work just as well. I'm not saying drop him off the map. But I think it's a mistake to think these two games don't change things. They do.

Assuming you are taking a WR of equall value, then sure. However, if you are taking a guy who you had ranked behind Smith, then you are giving up points in weeks 3-16.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

 

[KCC]

Can someone explain why it is you don't drop a player at least a couple spots when you are absolutely certain he is going to miss two games?? I'm baffled. I get that he's a stud WR who is explosive, but he just lost two games and a corresponding number of opportunities to demonstrate that explosiveness. If you're using a VBD strategy and you're rankings are based on projections, how can you not project fewer catches, yards, & TDs for a guy you know is going to miss part of the season than you had him pegged for when you thought he would be playing all the scheduled games?

The questions should really be whether you first think you can draft a replacement WR for the first two weeks who will put up similar numbers to the guys you passed on and whether you think Smith will outscore those other WRs weeks 2-16. If you answer yes to both of those then you shouldn't drop his ranking.

I would respectfully disagree. If I follow the logic, Smith is first and foremost such a stud that you can't afford to pass on him early in the draft despite his absence from two games. Yet at the same time, the numbers you would miss from Smith for those two games can easily be made up by other WRs you can have in later rounds of the draft? There is a giant disconnect in that line of reasoning.

 

[gman8343]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

I know u are a buckeye. So this is understandible. I'll break it down to you.If the suspension is 2 games, and the bye is one what is the combined games of your FFL season you can't start him. HINT the answer is not 2. B/c 2+1 is THREE.now three games out of a 14 week regular season.... nah, I don't think you are ready for fractions and decimal points yet...

Why would anyone include the bye week in this? Doesn't everyone have a bye week? This doesn't make sense to me.

 

[MAC_32]

Depends on the size of the league, it's all about replacement value. In a 10 team league I'd slide him directly under the elite 6 along side Andre Johnson, it's easier to replace him for 2 weeks in a league of this size - if I had a late 1st round pick I'd be salivating at the thought of getting him at the end of round 3. The larger the league, the further he falls as he is much harder to replace. Not sure how far I'd drop him - all of my larger leagues are dynos - but probably somewhere in the 10-13 range.

 

[Burning Sensation]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

I dont buy it. Even in a start 3 WR league, a person still takes a decent WR 4 to cover byes, and just for depth in general. I would rather give up 4-5 points for the difference in the first two weeks, as opposed to the difference of 1-2 points in each week from 3-16.Derrick Mason in weeks 1-2, and Smith 3-16 > Burress weeks 1-16.