How many spots doyou drop Smith in your WR rankings? (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

I don't see how you can leave him in the same place with him missing two games. If you do, you are pretty much forced to change your entire draft because you have to get a 4th WR a lot earlier. I'd rather let someone else reach because I am not willing to chance an 0-2 start. You do that and your margin for error is much smaller.

Very If you draft smith and lose your first two games by close scores, you put yourself in a big hole. I too will pass on Smith, let someone else overpay.

So you would rather have a lesser WR for the remaining 14 weeks?

The other WRs in his tier will work just as well. I'm not saying drop him off the map. But I think it's a mistake to think these two games don't change things. They do.

They change things, but how much? You can start another WR and likely (depending on your league setup) get nearly as many points as you would have with Smith the first two games. I have him ranked at #10, just ahead of Housh, Burress, and Boldin. I like his upside the rest of the season better than those guys.

 

[Tau837]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

I know u are a buckeye. So this is understandible. I'll break it down to you.If the suspension is 2 games, and the bye is one what is the combined games of your FFL season you can't start him. HINT the answer is not 2. B/c 2+1 is THREE.now three games out of a 14 week regular season.... nah, I don't think you are ready for fractions and decimal points yet...

Why would anyone include the bye week in this? Doesn't everyone have a bye week? This doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Tau837]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

I dont buy it. Even in a start 3 WR league, a person still takes a decent WR 4 to cover byes, and just for depth in general. I would rather give up 4-5 points for the difference in the first two weeks, as opposed to the difference of 1-2 points in each week from 3-16.Derrick Mason in weeks 1-2, and Smith 3-16 > Burress weeks 1-16.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

I dont buy it. Even in a start 3 WR league, a person still takes a decent WR 4 to cover byes, and just for depth in general. I would rather give up 4-5 points for the difference in the first two weeks, as opposed to the difference of 1-2 points in each week from 3-16.Derrick Mason in weeks 1-2, and Smith 3-16 > Burress weeks 1-16.

That may very well be true, but you are leaving out the fact that you are most likely taking a WR earlier than you normally would and thus will be weaker elsewhere. Also, if you start 0-2, the above may not matter.

 

[Tanner9919]

Can someone explain why it is you don't drop a player at least a couple spots when you are absolutely certain he is going to miss two games?? I'm baffled. I get that he's a stud WR who is explosive, but he just lost two games and a corresponding number of opportunities to demonstrate that explosiveness. If you're using a VBD strategy and you're rankings are based on projections, how can you not project fewer catches, yards, & TDs for a guy you know is going to miss part of the season than you had him pegged for when you thought he would be playing all the scheduled games?

many people are driving with blinders on..

throwing out his two worst seasons - 2004 season ( just 6 catches) and his rookie year ( just 10 catches), Steve Smith has averaged

83/1142/7, only once in his nfl career has he caught MORE than 8 tds in a single season..

Last season, some 20 different WR's caught 80+ balls, 15 different WR's caught 7 or more TDs , and 20 different Wr's went over 1000 yards..what am I missing about Steve Smith?!?! for an injury prone WR who has missed 19 games over the past 4 seasons, he's an an also-ran wr who is grossly overrated and will now miss 2 games for non-INJURY related reasons..



the value in Steve Smith is letting someone else take him.

 

[Burning Sensation]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

I dont buy it. Even in a start 3 WR league, a person still takes a decent WR 4 to cover byes, and just for depth in general. I would rather give up 4-5 points for the difference in the first two weeks, as opposed to the difference of 1-2 points in each week from 3-16.Derrick Mason in weeks 1-2, and Smith 3-16 > Burress weeks 1-16.

That may very well be true, but you are leaving out the fact that you are most likely taking a WR earlier than you normally would and thus will be weaker elsewhere. Also, if you start 0-2, the above may not matter.

I dont think i would take a WR earlier than i normally would. Like i said, i usually place a good amount of value on my 4th WR(in a start 3 league) for byes and possible injury anyway. There are alot of variables that come into play when deciding Smiths value with the suspension, but in most caes, i cant see taking a lesser WR over him because of it. Yeah, you "may" lose one of your first two games because you started Mason instead of Smith, but you are much more likely to lose a game between weeks 3-16 by starting Burress instead of Smith.

 

[Tau837]

in all seriousness I'll pass on him for, as he'll be taken right along side other WR1, RB1-2, and elite QB1's. Then I'll target him when that guy starts out slow because he is missing his 2nd round pick for the first 2 games.

If you take him, you absolutely have to take his replacement too early for his adp, and I don't like the idea of that either, as there are a lot of options on that team, and that would be harder to even get right, and might not even be worth it (b/c of all the aforementioned weapons).

The bolded part is the right answer. It will literally put you behind the 8-ball. You will be drafting defensively for most of the draft because you have to take an extra WR too early.

I dont buy it. Even in a start 3 WR league, a person still takes a decent WR 4 to cover byes, and just for depth in general. I would rather give up 4-5 points for the difference in the first two weeks, as opposed to the difference of 1-2 points in each week from 3-16.Derrick Mason in weeks 1-2, and Smith 3-16 > Burress weeks 1-16.

That may very well be true, but you are leaving out the fact that you are most likely taking a WR earlier than you normally would and thus will be weaker elsewhere. Also, if you start 0-2, the above may not matter.

I dont think i would take a WR earlier than i normally would. Like i said, i usually place a good amount of value on my 4th WR(in a start 3 league) for byes and possible injury anyway. There are alot of variables that come into play when deciding Smiths value with the suspension, but in most caes, i cant see taking a lesser WR over him because of it. Yeah, you "may" lose one of your first two games because you started Mason instead of Smith, but you are much more likely to lose a game between weeks 3-16 by starting Burress instead of Smith.

Exactly. Personally, I think Smith will be hell-bent on making up for the suspension. If he stays healthy, I think he'll be a top 5 WR in games 3-16.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Wow, apparently Dodds and co. thought he deserved to be dropped a few spots. #20 WR in the subscriber contest? behind Cotchery?

He should be on 99% of the rosters in the contest.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Speaking of weak math, or should I say conclusions from it. So you're saying you're going to totally ignore WRs till the end of the draft then?Your 5 pts argument doesn't even make any sense unless you play in a total pts league vs head-to-head since 5 pts is only an average ie it will vary game to game.....and even then, if you don't think a 90 pt diff in players over the course of the year is much, good luck - you'll really need it. FF is a game of inches and 5 ppg is HUGE. A few small examples using last year's numbers - Team 2 is "only" about 90 pts behind team 1 by position:

Team 1

Manning

Edwards

Addai

Gates

Team 2

Cutler

Cotchery

L White

D Lee

And since most people are (were?) looking at drafting Smith as a WR1, the diff between him and some schlep WR is also probably huge and could easily make the diff between 2-0 and 0-2.....and in any really competitive league, starting 0-2 puts you in considerable hole not so easy to crawl out of. Add to that the risk of he and/or Delhomme getting hurt.......I'm amazed how high this guy was going and apparently still is.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I missed that - there are leagues w/12 game seasons? ?? what everybody makes the playoffs?

or big leagues

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I missed that - there are leagues w/12 game seasons? ?? what everybody makes the playoffs?

or big leagues

Yeah! Its awesome, its just like hockey!!

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

I know u are a buckeye. So this is understandible. I'll break it down to you.If the suspension is 2 games, and the bye is one what is the combined games of your FFL season you can't start him. HINT the answer is not 2. B/c 2+1 is THREE.now three games out of a 14 week regular season.... nah, I don't think you are ready for fractions and decimal points yet...

Why would anyone include the bye week in this? Doesn't everyone have a bye week? This doesn't make sense to me.

The bye week comes into play only because it is one more week you have to use a lesser player. Even player has a bye week and you draft to organize them accordingly. The suspension for those that have already drafted puts more pressure on the WR depth. Also, it is one more game without the use of a stud WR.

 

[Pickle Rody]

My projections for him would be cut by 1/8th of the total I originally had for him. Say, 13 to 16 rec, 150 +/- yds, 1 TD. This drops him from WR10 to about WR13 or WR14 (in my 12 teamer.) So he drops about 3 - 4 spots. That's it.

There are 2 games that you know for sure he will accumulate no stats. Projections will, without a doubt, have to be adjusted. Dropping 1/8th from his projected total may be simplistic, but it works for me. Saying you do not make any changes in where you have him ranked is completely ignoring the fact that he is now going to miss 1/8th of his games this year, at a minimum.

 

[Burning Sensation]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues.

Because you cant count the bye, and if you do, you have to subtract 8.33% from any other WR you draft instead of Smith.Yes the difference in bigger than 5, its roughly 6.5. However, are you not going to count the points you lose per game by having an inferior WR to Smith for weeks 3-16, which would be about 1.5 points per game if you move him down 5-6 spots.

So basically, you are giving up 13 points in weeks 1-2, and 21 points for weeks 3-16.

 

[Tau837]

On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

Of course. But that has nothing to do with Smith's suspension and should have already been accounted for in Smith's projections/rankings.

 

[Moniker]

Can someone explain why it is you don't drop a player at least a couple spots when you are absolutely certain he is going to miss two games?? I'm baffled. I get that he's a stud WR who is explosive, but he just lost two games and a corresponding number of opportunities to demonstrate that explosiveness. If you're using a VBD strategy and you're rankings are based on projections, how can you not project fewer catches, yards, & TDs for a guy you know is going to miss part of the season than you had him pegged for when you thought he would be playing all the scheduled games?

many people are driving with blinders on..

throwing out his two worst seasons - 2004 season ( just 6 catches) and his rookie year ( just 10 catches), Steve Smith has averaged

83/1142/7, only once in his nfl career has he caught MORE than 8 tds in a single season..

Last season, some 20 different WR's caught 80+ balls, 15 different WR's caught 7 or more TDs , and 20 different Wr's went over 1000 yards..what am I missing about Steve Smith?!?! for an injury prone WR who has missed 19 games over the past 4 seasons, he's an an also-ran wr who is grossly overrated and will now miss 2 games for non-INJURY related reasons..



the value in Steve Smith is letting someone else take him.

Very and I couldn't agree more.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

 

[Pickle Rody]

My projections for him would be cut by 1/8th of the total I originally had for him. Say, 13 to 16 rec, 150 +/- yds, 1 TD. This drops him from WR10 to about WR13 or WR14 (in my 12 teamer.) So he drops about 3 - 4 spots. That's it.There are 2 games that you know for sure he will accumulate no stats. Projections will, without a doubt, have to be adjusted. Dropping 1/8th from his projected total may be simplistic, but it works for me. Saying you do not make any changes in where you have him ranked is completely ignoring the fact that he is now going to miss 1/8th of his games this year, at a minimum.

ETA: I saw value at WR10 (where he was ranked) and I see better value at WR13/WR14 (after adjustments.) Like others have mentioned, depending on league size, roster size, scoring parameters, etc.......if you are going to draft him you need to also prepare to get by without him, so you are forced to look at filling those two weeks with a viable WR earlier than you would have if not drafting Smith.In keeper leagues, like myself, the suspension will force the Smith owner to look to fill the WR4 slot on his team earlier than he had originally planned. He now has three weeks to decide what alternate courses of actions to prepare for on Draft Day.

 

[fantasyplayer]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

The math was correct - he clearly mentioned that he was taking the bye week into consideration as a 3rd missed week. 3 games is 25% of 12 games.

Please tell me who I can draft that won't have a bye week.

 

[Tau837]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

Let's go one thing at a time:On Delhomme, it is discounted further. Do you expect Delhomme to play 16 games? Well, I do not. However many games you expect Delhomme to miss, the probability is that those missed games will be after week 2. Do you disagree with that? This means that Smith misses out on having Delhomme under center for two of his games. The most difficult part of this situation for me to project is Delhomme. If he only makes it six or eight games, then these two games are a much bigger deal than many expect.

The one thing that is being left out every post is that losing just ONE more game (with whatever point difference you want to place on it) could easily be the difference between making the playoffs or not. I never said you would lose both games, just one would be large enough to make a huge difference. The posts above are all quoted for posterity. We shall see how this all plays out.

 

[Burning Sensation]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

Let's go one thing at a time:On Delhomme, it is discounted further. Do you expect Delhomme to play 16 games? Well, I do not. However many games you expect Delhomme to miss, the probability is that those missed games will be after week 2. Do you disagree with that? This means that Smith misses out on having Delhomme under center for two of his games. The most difficult part of this situation for me to project is Delhomme. If he only makes it six or eight games, then these two games are a much bigger deal than many expect.

This makes absolutely no sense.

 

[jeter23]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

Let's go one thing at a time:On Delhomme, it is discounted further. Do you expect Delhomme to play 16 games? Well, I do not. However many games you expect Delhomme to miss, the probability is that those missed games will be after week 2. Do you disagree with that? This means that Smith misses out on having Delhomme under center for two of his games. The most difficult part of this situation for me to project is Delhomme. If he only makes it six or eight games, then these two games are a much bigger deal than many expect.

This makes absolutely no sense.

Really? Makes total sense to me. It is an easy assumption Delhomme will miss some action this year. The chances are also pretty good that the games he misses will be in the middle-end of the year (more games played = more risk of injury). Smith is missing 2 of the games that Delhomme will likely play this year. Good enough for you?

 

[Burning Sensation]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

Let's go one thing at a time:On Delhomme, it is discounted further. Do you expect Delhomme to play 16 games? Well, I do not. However many games you expect Delhomme to miss, the probability is that those missed games will be after week 2. Do you disagree with that? This means that Smith misses out on having Delhomme under center for two of his games. The most difficult part of this situation for me to project is Delhomme. If he only makes it six or eight games, then these two games are a much bigger deal than many expect.

This makes absolutely no sense.

Really? Makes total sense to me. It is an easy assumption Delhomme will miss some action this year. The chances are also pretty good that the games he misses will be in the middle-end of the year (more games played = more risk of injury). Smith is missing 2 of the games that Delhomme will likely play this year. Good enough for you?

You took Delhommes injury risk into consideration before Smiths suspension, right? You ranked Smith accordingly, and then he got suspended. How does Delhommes injury risk come back into play after the suspension? Also, would this ridiculous theory work the other way? Delhomme is just as likely to get hurt on play 1 than play 447. Does it make Smith more valuable if Delhomme gets hurt for the first two games, then comes back for week 3?

 

[Ice Cream Man]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore?

Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?

I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

Delhomme is just as likely to get hurt on play 1 than play 447

This seems like the basic point of contention. It seems intuitive that a chronic injury would be reaggravated with more wear and tear, not less.

 

[jeter23]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

 

[Burning Sensation]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

I own Smith in one of 7 leagues, and he happens to be my 4th WR in a start 3 WR league, so it doesnt matter to me either way. I was arguing against him being a good value in the thread about him being underrated this year. My point here is that i am not going to take a WR that i believe to be inferior to him(ie. Burress, Boldin, Roy Williams) because of it. Now if it comes down to Smith and someone who i feel is really close in value, then maybe i consider the the guy, depending on other variables.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

Smith suspension can matter very little all the way to dropping him down to WR 30. For example, if i am in a 12 team, start 2 WR's league, in which 6 teams make the playoffs, Smiths value remains almost exactly the same. If i am in a 14 team league that starts 3 WR's, and only 4 teams make the playoffs, i probably cross Smith right off my draft list.

 

[FavreCo]

On the other hand, if he gets traded to Dallas, you bump him up.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-2-22/...e-Cowboys-.html

 

[jeter23]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

I own Smith in one of 7 leagues, and he happens to be my 4th WR in a start 3 WR league, so it doesnt matter to me either way. I was arguing against him being a good value in the thread about him being underrated this year. My point here is that i am not going to take a WR that i believe to be inferior to him(ie. Burress, Boldin, Roy Williams) because of it. Now if it comes down to Smith and someone who i feel is really close in value, then maybe i consider the the guy, depending on other variables.

That makes sense. I guess it comes down to tiers, which is a whole other discussion. I would take Plax or Boldin over him for sure. I don't see anyway it can be argued that losing 2 games should not affect his ranking.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

I own Smith in one of 7 leagues, and he happens to be my 4th WR in a start 3 WR league, so it doesnt matter to me either way. I was arguing against him being a good value in the thread about him being underrated this year. My point here is that i am not going to take a WR that i believe to be inferior to him(ie. Burress, Boldin, Roy Williams) because of it. Now if it comes down to Smith and someone who i feel is really close in value, then maybe i consider the the guy, depending on other variables.

That makes sense. I guess it comes down to tiers, which is a whole other discussion. I would take Plax or Boldin over him for sure. I don't see anyway it can be argued that losing 2 games should not affect his ranking.

It affects it to some degree, but not nearly as much as most are thinking. Before his suspension, i can safely say he would not have ended up on any of my redraft teams. There is a good chance that he will now. Like i said in a previous post, playing in all 16 games, i like Smith to be about 1.5 points a game better than guys like Burress. I figure the differnce between Smith and a guy ranked in WR 25-35 is going to cost me 5-6 points in each of week 1 and 2. So i am giving up 11 total points in the first two weeks. However, losing 1.5 points a game by starting Burress over Smith in weeks 3-16 is costing me 21 points. So, by drafting Smith over Burress, i am gaining a 10 point advantage.

 

[jeter23]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

I own Smith in one of 7 leagues, and he happens to be my 4th WR in a start 3 WR league, so it doesnt matter to me either way. I was arguing against him being a good value in the thread about him being underrated this year. My point here is that i am not going to take a WR that i believe to be inferior to him(ie. Burress, Boldin, Roy Williams) because of it. Now if it comes down to Smith and someone who i feel is really close in value, then maybe i consider the the guy, depending on other variables.

That makes sense. I guess it comes down to tiers, which is a whole other discussion. I would take Plax or Boldin over him for sure. I don't see anyway it can be argued that losing 2 games should not affect his ranking.

It affects it to some degree, but not nearly as much as most are thinking. Before his suspension, i can safely say he would not have ended up on any of my redraft teams. There is a good chance that he will now. Like i said in a previous post, playing in all 16 games, i like Smith to be about 1.5 points a game better than guys like Burress. I figure the differnce between Smith and a guy ranked in WR 25-35 is going to cost me 5-6 points in each of week 1 and 2. So i am giving up 11 total points in the first two weeks. However, losing 1.5 points a game by starting Burress over Smith in weeks 3-16 is costing me 21 points. So, by drafting Smith over Burress, i am gaining a 10 point advantage.

Gaining 10 points over the course of the season? Jeff's point was that is taking Smith early (close to his current ADP) could result in a loss in weeks 1 or 2, or both. 1 loss could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and missing them.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Umm.. for those of you that think missed games have no effect on rankings.. would Smith's ranking drop if the suspension was 3 games, 4 games... 10 games? At one point does this mysterious "basically just as good as smith but can be gotten 5 rounds later" WR be not as good anymore? Doesn't the whole "no drop" position contradict itself? If there's another decent filler player out there that you can plug in while Smith is on suspension without affecting your win % all that much, how good is Smith in the first place?I'm honestly trying to grasp this valuation concept.

The reason is very simple, Bitter Steve Smith owners. Have a good season guys!

I own Smith in one of 7 leagues, and he happens to be my 4th WR in a start 3 WR league, so it doesnt matter to me either way. I was arguing against him being a good value in the thread about him being underrated this year. My point here is that i am not going to take a WR that i believe to be inferior to him(ie. Burress, Boldin, Roy Williams) because of it. Now if it comes down to Smith and someone who i feel is really close in value, then maybe i consider the the guy, depending on other variables.

That makes sense. I guess it comes down to tiers, which is a whole other discussion. I would take Plax or Boldin over him for sure. I don't see anyway it can be argued that losing 2 games should not affect his ranking.

It affects it to some degree, but not nearly as much as most are thinking. Before his suspension, i can safely say he would not have ended up on any of my redraft teams. There is a good chance that he will now. Like i said in a previous post, playing in all 16 games, i like Smith to be about 1.5 points a game better than guys like Burress. I figure the differnce between Smith and a guy ranked in WR 25-35 is going to cost me 5-6 points in each of week 1 and 2. So i am giving up 11 total points in the first two weeks. However, losing 1.5 points a game by starting Burress over Smith in weeks 3-16 is costing me 21 points. So, by drafting Smith over Burress, i am gaining a 10 point advantage.

Gaining 10 points over the course of the season? Jeff's point was that is taking Smith early (close to his current ADP) could result in a loss in weeks 1 or 2, or both. 1 loss could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and missing them.

Losing 5 points in each of the first two games(differnce between Smith and my #3 WR) could cost me a win. However, it is more likely i lose a game between weeks 3-16 by taking a lesser WR than Smith. I figure i will lose 21 total points somewhere between weeks 3-16 by taking Burress over Smith.

 

[qazqaz11]

On the other hand, if he gets traded to Dallas, you bump him up.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-2-22/...e-Cowboys-.html

Hello Romo - good bye suspension

 

[Tau837]

In a redraft league where some only have 12 or 13 game seasons, I see no way you could leave Smith as high as previous. I was one of the staffers that had him the highest, but when I think I might lose 25% of the games (suspension plus bye), added to the risk of Delhomme's recovery, I had to drop him in the rankings.

Oh, come on! That is just a horrible display of mathematical skills! If he's losing 2 games out of 12, how is that 25%? And how does the risk of Delhomme's recovery enter into it at all? That should already be in his ranking.

Seriously, the difference between a top #1 WR and a #4 WR (your replacement, at worst), is about 5 ppg. How many games did you lose by 5 points last year? We had 9 of 78 regular season games in our league last year. That's about 11%. So, it's pretty unlikely that Steve Smith is going to be the cause of anyone going 0-2.

Please explain how two missed weeks, plus the bye week, as stated in the above post is not 25% of a 12 game schedule? I would like to hear that and how it a "horrible display of mathematical skills". In addition, in most of my non-ppr redraft leagues, the diff from WR1 (WR1-12 overall) to WR4(WR37-48) is much bigger than what you stated above. Further, it will be early enough in the season that sleepers will not be as plentiful as they will be in week four or five. So, in your example using 11%, that is one win or loss. Do you not think many playoff hope will be decided by that game? I know it is the case in my leagues. On Delhomme, I think there is risk .. a lot of it. Would it not make sense that Smith would bear some of that risk after last season? I can tell you as a Smith owner last season that even Moore (whom I like a ton) will not get SS the ball like Jake Delhomme does. We would all discount Smith some if Delhomme was ruled out.

OK. A standard redraft league goes 13-14 weeks for the regular season, which means, each player contributes 12-13 games, as you stated above. Since the BYE is already accounted for, the player is missing 2 out of his 12-13 games. Now, if you're going to use a 12 week (11 games for each player) season (far from a standard league), he still doesn't miss 25% of his games. The BYE week is irrelevant, since all players face it and it is already figured into the rankings. The difference between WR12 and WR48, using FBG stats, was 11.26 - 5.99 or 5.26 points, or 'about' 5 ppg. Between WR7 and WR43, it's about 6. Between Smith (12.45 last 3 years) and a mid 4th, it's about 5.8 ppg. So whether it's 5, 5.8, or 6, the point remains the same. The chance of a single player being the cause of 2 consecutive losses is small.

On Delhomme, I'm fine with you discounting him because of Delhomme's recovery. But, that's already in his ranking prior to the suspension. It's the same as the BYE week. You can't (or shouldn't) discount that twice.

Let's go one thing at a time:On Delhomme, it is discounted further. Do you expect Delhomme to play 16 games? Well, I do not. However many games you expect Delhomme to miss, the probability is that those missed games will be after week 2. Do you disagree with that? This means that Smith misses out on having Delhomme under center for two of his games. The most difficult part of this situation for me to project is Delhomme. If he only makes it six or eight games, then these two games are a much bigger deal than many expect.

The one thing that is being left out every post is that losing just ONE more game (with whatever point difference you want to place on it) could easily be the difference between making the playoffs or not. I never said you would lose both games, just one would be large enough to make a huge difference. The posts above are all quoted for posterity. We shall see how this all plays out.

Jeff, I was surprised to see that you have Delhomme ranked as the #8 QB in your 7/31 ranking. Seems odd considering you are expecting him to miss time. Or do you project all QBs to miss time?

 

[Tau837]

On the other hand, if he gets traded to Dallas, you bump him up.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-2-22/...e-Cowboys-.html

Hello Romo - good bye suspension

Is it possible the NFL would suspend him if his own team didn't?As for bumping him up if he goes to Dallas, I'm not so sure. I mean, if the suspension goes away, then obviously he gets the 2 games back, which helps. But in Carolina the past 3 seasons, he has averaged 9.7 targets per game. He won't get that many with Owens, Witten, Barber, Jones, et al to compete with. I think this would hurt the value of Smith, Owens, and Witten. And I'm not sure it would help Romo that much. He's already projected at QB4, and I don't see him passing Brady or Peyton...

 

[cstu]

On the other hand, if he gets traded to Dallas, you bump him up.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-2-22/...e-Cowboys-.html

Hello Romo - good bye suspension

Is it possible the NFL would suspend him if his own team didn't?As for bumping him up if he goes to Dallas, I'm not so sure. I mean, if the suspension goes away, then obviously he gets the 2 games back, which helps. But in Carolina the past 3 seasons, he has averaged 9.7 targets per game. He won't get that many with Owens, Witten, Barber, Jones, et al to compete with. I think this would hurt the value of Smith, Owens, and Witten. And I'm not sure it would help Romo that much. He's already projected at QB4, and I don't see him passing Brady or Peyton...

Doubt it. The suspension was an internal team matter and I think the league would stay out of it.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The one thing that is being left out every post is that losing just ONE more game (with whatever point difference you want to place on it) could easily be the difference between making the playoffs or not. I never said you would lose both games, just one would be large enough to make a huge difference. The posts above are all quoted for posterity. We shall see how this all plays out.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I agree that Smith's absense could lose you a game in weeks 1-2, and also that his presence over guys like Plax and Boldin will probably win you back that game in weeks 4-13. Think about it this way:

You have a greater negative PPG differential using your WR 3 or 4 in place of Smith for weeks 1 and 2 (as stated, about 5 points), but there is only a two week sample size for this difference to cause you a loss. You have a smaller positive PPG differential having Smith over Burress/Bolden on your roster from weeks 4-13 (as stated, about 1.5 points), but you are working with a much larger sample size in weeks 4-13 with which that difference can result in an added win, so I think that the likelihood that taking Smith costs you a loss in weeks 1-2 is similar to the likelihood that he causes you a win for weeks 4-13. I'm sure there is some mathematical formula that could figure this out exactly, but for me, the difference is close enough.

That said, I have had trouble ranking guys like Andre Johnson, Colston, Chad Johnson, Housh, and Fitzgerald. I will likely move Smith to the back of this pack, but not behind guys like Holt/Burress/Bolden/Welker.