How much of a buy low is Arian Foster now? (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

This could be the ultimate risk/reward move of the year. It gets very tricky if neither owner in a proposed trade own Tate. I'm seeing Foster owners dumping (wanting Starks and a "good" receiver for Arian). The hammy doesn't scare me as much as the fact that Tate also looks good and all the talk of the Texans trying to save themselves from a big money contract. But after owning Foster last year, and seeing him in preseason, he is just a different beast both running and receiving. I also think the Texans have pretty loft aspirations this year and will want the best player on the field now and worry about money/contracts later. I'm inclined to accept the risk. Would you?

 

[qimqam]

This could be the ultimate risk/reward move of the year. It gets very tricky if neither owner in a proposed trade own Tate. I'm seeing Foster owners dumping (wanting Starks and a "good" receiver for Arian). The hammy doesn't scare me as much as the fact that Tate also looks good and all the talk of the Texans trying to save themselves from a big money contract. But after owning Foster last year, and seeing him in preseason, he is just a different beast both running and receiving. I also think the Texans have pretty loft aspirations this year and will want the best player on the field now and worry about money/contracts later. I'm inclined to accept the risk. Would you?

I own Tate and Starks ... There's no way I would give up Starks and a good receiver for Foster right now.

 

[Shutout]

I would be surprised if many foster owners are to the point of wanting to sell. Its 2 weeks in with a lot of play left left and those who own Foster know how dominant he can be.

As frustrating as it is right now, I take the silver lining from it. the Texans are being smart because they have the luxury right now but I can foresee a fresh Arian Foster running rampant over some teams in November and December.

 

[Judge Smails]

This could be the ultimate risk/reward move of the year. It gets very tricky if neither owner in a proposed trade own Tate. I'm seeing Foster owners dumping (wanting Starks and a "good" receiver for Arian). The hammy doesn't scare me as much as the fact that Tate also looks good and all the talk of the Texans trying to save themselves from a big money contract. But after owning Foster last year, and seeing him in preseason, he is just a different beast both running and receiving. I also think the Texans have pretty loft aspirations this year and will want the best player on the field now and worry about money/contracts later. I'm inclined to accept the risk. Would you?

I own Tate and Starks ... There's no way I would give up Starks and a good receiver for Foster right now.

Understandable. The mojo on Foster vs. Tate and Starks are going in completely opposite directions. I'm really up in the air on Starks - love what I see but hate the fact that Kuhn is in there for every goal line vulture. We also give bonuses for 100 yard games. My problem with Starks is while he'll get 100+ combined every game he'll never get to 100 rushing and get the bonus. That coupled with limited TD's make him less attractive to me. So, maybe I'm thinking Foster is a buy low while Starks is a sell high. Sometimes the best deals are the ones we don't make, so lots to ponder here

 

[Cenobite]

I would be surprised if many foster owners are to the point of wanting to sell. Its 2 weeks in with a lot of play left left and those who own Foster know how dominant he can be. As frustrating as it is right now, I take the silver lining from it. the Texans are being smart because they have the luxury right now but I can foresee a fresh Arian Foster running rampant over some teams in November and December.

However, last year Foster was pretty much the lone ball carrier in the game. This year, given his hamstring issues I could certainly see Tate getting lots of carries to spell Foster every 3rd series and when the Texans are up big. Tate is too good a talent not to be used with some consistency. Tate's emergence will cut into Foster's touches and, in turn, will impact his fantasy value. I just don't get the feeling Foster will post similar numbers as last year even when he does get healthy.

 

[RUSF18]

Not sure why it's "tricky". I own Foster and Tate. To me, if I didn't have Tate I'd be more willing to trade Foster and therefore would be willing to accept less. If you have Tate, you're not getting what you expected from Foster but it's reasonable to expect RB1 numbers, and we're seeing that so far. Meanwhile, the Tate-less Foster owner likely has a big potential problem, plus he's extra pissed that he didn't appropriately back him up.

 

[gonzobill5]

On the flip side, I'm fielding offers for Tate. So far:

-Mendenhall or Turner for Tate & Newton

-Antonio Gates for Tate

Some people are jumping to conclusions on this one IMO. I'll take one of these deals, then try to pry Foster away.

 

[jbz]

The only problem I can see is if this turns into a time share once/if Foster is healthy. Then Tate and Foster pretty much eat into each others stats making them both RB2 types if anything. The Foster owner is still going to want a good piece in return for trading him. I'm talking re-draft here.

 

[simsarge]

With the stud RB1 upside both these guys have and what seems to be a tendancy for eithr to get dinged up, seems like a no brainer to take a gamble with the roster spot. I haven't gotten any offers (have both) but I would tend to think Foster is a serious crapshoot for a non Tate owner. Knowing the guys potential (and what he cost 2 weeks ago) I can't imagine selling him for chump change Mendenhall/turner for Tate AND Newton sounds like a give away to me. Foster's had a months rest and still saw limited action. One of these guys is going to be money down the stretch. Almost a coin flip as to which one, but given this offense it's take more than a mid/low end RB1 to give up on him let alone in a package with a top 5 Qb. Just my 2cents

 

[PRE42]

I would be surprised if many foster owners are to the point of wanting to sell. Its 2 weeks in with a lot of play left left and those who own Foster know how dominant he can be. As frustrating as it is right now, I take the silver lining from it. the Texans are being smart because they have the luxury right now but I can foresee a fresh Arian Foster running rampant over some teams in November and December.

However, last year Foster was pretty much the lone ball carrier in the game. This year, given his hamstring issues I could certainly see Tate getting lots of carries to spell Foster every 3rd series and when the Texans are up big. Tate is too good a talent not to be used with some consistency. Tate's emergence will cut into Foster's touches and, in turn, will impact his fantasy value. I just don't get the feeling Foster will post similar numbers as last year even when he does get healthy.

this is the post i think that will keep Foster from being traded to YOUR team

 

[bergs101]

Another offer for people looking to understand Tate's value...

I've been offered Hillis for Tate & Starks

I'm giving it some serious thought as I could start Hillis alongside Mendenhall.

edited to add this: BTW...I don't own Foster

 

[We Tigers]

It all depends. In one league where I own Foster, I'm 0-2. Can't lose too many more and still expect to make the playoffs. Given that it looks like he'll be on a small workload for the next handful of games, I'd definitely be open to dealing him.

That said, no, you're still not going to get him for spare parts. If you assume that he's going to be back to 15-20 carries a game and his heavy role in the passing game (where there's no question he's wayyy better than Tate) around week 5 or 6, then he's still got a ton of value. I might consider a straight-up swap for a fringe but healthy #1 like Mendenhall, but would probably want an upgrade at one of my other positions as well.

From a position of strength, I think he could be a very smart acquisition. A team that's hit on some later picks at receiver and RB (Britt owners, Jordy Nelson owners, Fred Jackson owners, Beanie owners, etc.) might have enough depth to pick him up using a "name" player and make themselves dominant for the stretch run.

 

[ponchsox]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

 

[cst2006]

Since people are throwing around the offers they've received, I pulled the trigger on Brandon Marshall for Tate straight up in my 14 teamer.. Needed help at WR bad and the likelihood of Foster coming back sooner rather than later and it being a timeshare was enough for me to trade him to the foster owner for a surefire #1 wideout.

 

[None_More_Black]

Since people are throwing around the offers they've received, I pulled the trigger on Brandon Marshall for Tate straight up in my 14 teamer.. Needed help at WR bad and the likelihood of Foster coming back sooner rather than later and it being a timeshare was enough for me to trade him to the foster owner for a surefire #1 wideout.

Interested in hearing what people are getting/giving for Tate. As much as I would like to keep him would not mind shopping him for a good upgrade as I am 0-2.

 

[atcdav]

I think Foster finds himself in a full blown RBBC unless Tate goes down. It is the only wat they can keep him healthy. So I would rank him around top 20 or so if I was looking to trade for him. I would ask for Wells, Best, Bradshaw, Tolbert area. I would give Matthews, Hightower, Benson, Bush to get him.

 

[howo5]

I've been offered Starks and Grant together. Not sure if I want to pull the trigger on that.

 

[wally82]

I would like to know as well. I have him as my rb 3/4 in my auction league behind Rice and McCoy. We start 1 rb a flex and 2 wrs. I would like to use Tate to upgrade WR over Manningham and Aj Green.

 

[jonmhend]

Not sure why it's "tricky". I own Foster and Tate. To me, if I didn't have Tate I'd be more willing to trade Foster and therefore would be willing to accept less. If you have Tate, you're not getting what you expected from Foster but it's reasonable to expect RB1 numbers, and we're seeing that so far. Meanwhile, the Tate-less Foster owner likely has a big potential problem, plus he's extra pissed that he didn't appropriately back him up.

This is me, but the owner who drafted him took in the 9th round. Too early in my opinion.

 

[VikingFrog]

I offered Tate and Steve Smith (CAR) to the Foster owner for Manningham before week 1 and he gladly rejected the trade. As of right now I'm the lucky one at the end of that deal as I have an RB1 and a WR1 to flex behind Calvin and V Jax.

I wouldn't touch Foster with a ten foot pole right now. This is the third time his hamstring has acted up. How many hamstring situations will it take before people realize he's going to have to sit a couple weeks? The best case is to have a deep roster and survive and hope he comes back full strength and kills it later in the season.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think Foster finds himself in a full blown RBBC unless Tate goes down. It is the only wat they can keep him healthy. So I would rank him around top 20 or so if I was looking to trade for him. I would ask for Wells, Best, Bradshaw, Tolbert area. I would give Matthews, Hightower, Benson, Bush to get him.

This is really the key. What will Foster be doing when healthy?The Houston run game if split in two is still pretty darn good. I wonder what the history of RB's with hamstrings is? The only one I recall recently was Moreno, not close in terms of value I know but his hamstring kept him out of several games last year.

 

[De Novo]

On the flip side, I'm fielding offers for Tate. So far:-Mendenhall or Turner for Tate & Newton-Antonio Gates for TateSome people are jumping to conclusions on this one IMO. I'll take one of these deals, then try to pry Foster away.

What kind of league is this? Is this dynasty? I have NEVER been in a league where someone will give up their 1st round pick for a handcuff and a waiver wire rookie QB. And I've been playing fantasy for 15+ years.

 

[stbugs]

Since people are throwing around the offers they've received, I pulled the trigger on Brandon Marshall for Tate straight up in my 14 teamer.. Needed help at WR bad and the likelihood of Foster coming back sooner rather than later and it being a timeshare was enough for me to trade him to the foster owner for a surefire #1 wideout.

Nice trade. Sorry, but I think at the end of the year there are going to be some sorry people who think Foster is already done after week 2. Seeing this thread makes me want to see if I can pry Foster away cheap where I have depth. Sure, Foster could be hurt all year, but if he gets healthy, he is one of the few RBs that can really challenge for the top fantasy RB. Who cares if he misses a little more time. If you can get him for cheap and he plays the last 8-10 games like 2010, you win your league. No big deal if he isn't great.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

Doesn't this basically happen every year though? Lot of turnover at RBETA: I mean in general, not necessarily after two weeks

 

[rocketsauce]

Foster owner, don't have Tate. Tired of the headache. 1-1 but want to win. Have Mendy as my other starting RB, so I'm considering taking a decent offer if I can get it.

Had an unofficial offer of Blount & Harvin. I could use the WR3 help too (Looking at you, Lance Moore) so I'm considering it. Main issue is this is a PPR league, and Blount & Mendy sounds quite....touchdown dependent.

 

[Herm23]

It completely depends on how you think Arian will be from a health standpoint this year.

If you are of the opinion that he will get fully healthy sooner rather than later (meaning in the next few weeks he will be back to full speed), he is a no brainer buy. ANYONE saying this will be anything close to a timeshare if Foster returns to full health/speed has clearly not watched the games. The difference between Tate and the Foster of last year is still night and day (Tate has looked pretty good to start the year. Please note that he has looked pretty good and NOT great, unlike Foster who looked great essentially every single game last year). The Foster from last season is simply too good to not give 20+ touches every single game unless someone named Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, or Jamaal Charles are also on the team. Since the Texans have none of those players, if Foster returns to full health (and presumably last years form), he resumes his bell cow and dominant fantasy status. This makes him an instant buy if you can get him for less than last years cost.

If you are of the opinion that the hamstring will linger in some form all season, then he is a definite sell. The Foster that I saw in the 1st half of last week was a shell of the player that was carving up defenses last year. I am not sure how much of that was because the hamstring was actually bothering him and how much of it was simply because this is what the hamstring is going to cause him to become this season, but I think the last scenario is plausible enough to cause me legitimate worry. I think there are certainly scenarios in which the hamstring doesn't act up every week and/or cause him to miss time constantly, but still causes him to play cautious or simply be a step slow and robs him of much of what made him great last year. In these scenarios, this is a full on timeshare, with Tate earning a lot (50% or more?) of the touches, making Foster a sell now while he still has fairly high value and before the bottom falls out.

I can't say for sure which group I am in, as I am invested in both Foster and Tate in several dynasty/keeper leagues and waffle between camp #1 (he will return to health and dominance) and camp #2 (this is going to linger all year in the form of less explosiveness and speed). I suppose in the end I will probably trend towards believing he will regain his health and thus bell cow and dominant status, but I am also a very patient fantasy football owner and can hardly fault others who are less patient (this may be a case where I will be too patient and it will burn me).

 

[Banger]

Great post Herm. I think now is a great te to potentially buy him low but I'm going through the same thought process and trying to figure out if he'll be worth the headache this year. Kubiak isn't helping the situation with all his double and triple talk. "if Arian is playing he's 100% and he's going to get the carries" then the game comes and he looks like a shell of himself and gets 10 carries. Then all the sudden it's "now Tate is the guy and were gonna ride him for a while".

What I can't get comfort around is when Foster is 100%, I know he's not going to get the % of carries he got before but just how much will Tate eat into the workload? Will it be Deangelo and Stewart scenario and kind of a 1A and 1B scenario where foster gets 20 and Tate gets 11 as opposed to last year where foster got all 31?

 

[Tanner9919]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

good post.no one can forecast injuries, but CJ missing all of camp was a red flag that something *might* happen...

as for Foster, I will never again doubt the severity of a hamstring injury..once it happens,it usually lingers..

I doubt Foster is 100% at any point this season..Tate is now a MUCH bigger part of this offense..I think the Foster owners are like Baghdad Bob when it comes to Tate: they see him, they can hear him coming, but they don't want to admit that he's arrived..

As for Charles, the writing was on the wall during preseason: the Chiefs were going miss Charlie Weis, dearly..

they looked terrible in preseason,and that has spilled over to the regular season...add the tough(er) schedule to these other factors, and you could see the KC implosion coming a mile away..

 

[Banger]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

good post.no one can forecast injuries, but CJ missing all of camp was a red flag that something *might* happen...

as for Foster, I will never again doubt the severity of a hamstring injury..once it happens,it usually lingers..

I doubt Foster is 100% at any point this season..Tate is now a MUCH bigger part of this offense..I think the Foster owners are like Baghdad Bob when it comes to Tate: they see him, they can hear him coming, but they don't want to admit that he's arrived..

As for Charles, the writing was on the wall during preseason: the Chiefs were going miss Charlie Weis, dearly..

they looked terrible in preseason,and that has spilled over to the regular season...add the tough(er) schedule to these other factors, and you could see the KC implosion coming a mile away..

I wouldn't throw in the towel on CJ just yet. I remember a few years ago people were putting the dirt on LT because he had 400+ touches the prior year and started the season slow due to a couple tough matchups the 1st 3 weeks. He finished the year with 1900+ yards and 18 tds. There's a lot of football to be played and if you can buy CJ low I'd do it while you can.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think we have to factor in psychology to this conversation. It's one thing to relegate your STAR to the bench or a backup role, because general managers have a hard time psychologically explaining to their owners why a guy they're paying tens of millions of dollars is being outplayed by someone making far less.

But that's not what's going on here.

Sure, Foster was amazing last year. But he wouldn't be the first RB to have an out-of-nowhere season only to be an asterisk beyond that. Am I saying Foster will turn out that way? No, I doubt it. He's too young and level headed (and talented) to suffer that indignity. BUT, we have to remember that Foster is only making $525,000 this year and is an RFA next year. Meanwhile Tate is set to make $405,000 this year but is under contract through 2013 and got a $1.6 million signing bonus.

Tate has looked quite good, and the Texans are winning and have a VERY good shot at winning the division. Meanwhile it seems like every medical expert you listen to (including our own Dr. Jene) agrees that what's ailing Foster should not be a chronic problem PROVIDED THAT IT DOESN'T REAGGRAVATE. Yet what has happened not once, but twice? Foster comes in only to re-aggravate the problem.

 

[jbz]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

good post.no one can forecast injuries, but CJ missing all of camp was a red flag that something *might* happen...

as for Foster, I will never again doubt the severity of a hamstring injury..once it happens,it usually lingers..

I doubt Foster is 100% at any point this season..Tate is now a MUCH bigger part of this offense..I think the Foster owners are like Baghdad Bob when it comes to Tate: they see him, they can hear him coming, but they don't want to admit that he's arrived..

As for Charles, the writing was on the wall during preseason: the Chiefs were going miss Charlie Weis, dearly..

they looked terrible in preseason,and that has spilled over to the regular season...add the tough(er) schedule to these other factors, and you could see the KC implosion coming a mile away..

KC implosion or not, there's no way one could have predicted an injury to Charles.

 

[rocketsauce]

Trying desperately not to turn this into a wannabe AC post, but the people in this thread are the people with their pulse on the situation who are in similar position as myself:

I have Foster (don't have Tate) and am 1-1, trying to avoid making things any worse. My team put up a league low 92 pts last week and I took a 60 pt loss. I don't take losing well. Anyway, I'm ready to move Foster and let somebody else wait, because I'm not gonna wait myself out of the playoff race in a year where it seems fantasy scoring is way up.

Are any of these offers suicidal? I've sent them all out, and don't necessary think they'll get accepted by any means. Just want to know if I'm in full panic mode and need to be talked off the cliff:

I give Foster & Vernon Davis for Frank Gore & Jermichael Finley

I give Foster for Legarrette Blount & Percy Harvin.

I give Foster for Mike Tolbert & Mike Williams (TB)

PPR leagues, just trying to get something out of him before tomorrow's "Re-evaluation".

 

[cvnpoka]

all of those will get rejected

 

[gsmayes]

I'm a Foster owner, traded Daniel Thomas for Tate last week after Foster starting practicing again. FYI, it's a three player keeper league.

 

[Raidersfan18]

I just offered Gore for Foster straight up to an 0-2 Foster owner (I'm a Tate owner). The HOU playoff schedule is really enticing. Will report back if it's accepted.

Thanks to all for posting trades they've seen. It was helpful in deciding what id offer.

 

[cvnpoka]

i cant get rid of this bum. seems everyone has come around to the conclusion that hes runt end of an rbbc. offered him+some filler for wells. offered him+finley for mjd. offered him straight up for fjax. offered straight up for tate.

guess i will start on the 2nd tier guys like hightower and benson.

 

[We Tigers]

i cant get rid of this bum. seems everyone has come around to the conclusion that hes runt end of an rbbc. offered him+some filler for wells. offered him+finley for mjd. offered him straight up for fjax. offered straight up for tate.guess i will start on the 2nd tier guys like hightower and benson.

I know you're fervent that he's lost his job completely--I disagree--but at that point, you just hold him unless you think he doesn't play again.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

This could be the ultimate risk/reward move of the year. It gets very tricky if neither owner in a proposed trade own Tate. I'm seeing Foster owners dumping (wanting Starks and a "good" receiver for Arian). The hammy doesn't scare me as much as the fact that Tate also looks good and all the talk of the Texans trying to save themselves from a big money contract. But after owning Foster last year, and seeing him in preseason, he is just a different beast both running and receiving. I also think the Texans have pretty loft aspirations this year and will want the best player on the field now and worry about money/contracts later. I'm inclined to accept the risk. Would you?

I rather have Steve Slaton.

 

[Tango]

AF didnt practice today according to Scurfield

 

[emge]

Amazing how 3 of the top 5 RBs drafted are already hurt or early season busts (Foster, CJ, Charles) after two weeks.

Bump Finley?

 

[Herm23]

i cant get rid of this bum. seems everyone has come around to the conclusion that hes runt end of an rbbc. offered him+some filler for wells. offered him+finley for mjd. offered him straight up for fjax. offered straight up for tate.guess i will start on the 2nd tier guys like hightower and benson.

This has been good schtick throughout your series of posts on the topic and I appreciate the reactions you are causing from people.

 

[Silver & Black]

AF didnt practice today according to Scurfield

He was supposed to be "re-evaluated" today.Anybody Texas homers have any info on how that evaluation went?

 

[cvnpoka]

heres what else scurfield said

NickScurfield Nick ScurfieldKubiak said that Foster "worked real hard" today and it's too early to have a sense of what the RB situation will be Sunday

gunna wait a bit for the standard coachspeak to be expressed and then likely offer him for hightower and graham, fully expecting to be laughed at by the owner.

 

[gkza]

I am in a non-PPR, redraft league. We protect 1 player from previous years roster, and have rights to that player for 3 seasons. Foster was my keeper.

I just dealt him for Roddy White straight up. Can't deal with the injury anymore.

We start 3 WRs. I've got Fitzgerald, VJAx, and now Roddy as #3.

RBs are Tolbert, Hightower, and Ingram. Going to need a 4th RB

Any thoughts on this trade? The guy I traded with just lost Charles for the year.

(appologies in advance if I get ripped for posting 45% of my roster )

 

[cvnpoka]

i think thats a bad trade for you

 

[Tango]

heres what else scurfield said

NickScurfield Nick ScurfieldKubiak said that Foster "worked real hard" today and it's too early to have a sense of what the RB situation will be Sunday

gunna wait a bit for the standard coachspeak to be expressed and then likely offer him for hightower and graham, fully expecting to be laughed at by the owner.

GK has lost all credibility on this topic. His words are beyond useless. We're left with the simple question; did he practice or not....and then, assuming he hasnt, wait for the inactive list Sunday.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

I am in a non-PPR, redraft league. We protect 1 player from previous years roster, and have rights to that player for 3 seasons. Foster was my keeper.I just dealt him for Roddy White straight up. Can't deal with the injury anymore. We start 3 WRs. I've got Fitzgerald, VJAx, and now Roddy as #3.RBs are Tolbert, Hightower, and Ingram. Going to need a 4th RBAny thoughts on this trade? The guy I traded with just lost Charles for the year. (appologies in advance if I get ripped for posting 45% of my roster )

If it was PPR, you'd be okay but I doubt you'll win in the playoffs. You don't have a RB1. You just got bunch of RB3s...

 

[Ping Pong]

Well, I just traded David Nelson + Mark Sanchez for Foster (in a start 2QB league), so you can definitely find owners who are willing to sell.

 

[None_More_Black]

Well, I just traded David Nelson + Mark Sanchez for Foster (in a start 2QB league), so you can definitely find owners who are willing to sell.

Just offered SJAX and Hernandez for Foster. Was trying to get rid of Tate, but going the other way now possibly.

 

[Captain Hook]

You should be able to buy even lower with Ben Tate starting this week