How the draft might be affected by the lockout (1 Viewer)

[shader]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

I'm not as sure about this. One thing to consider is whether the teams will get a chance to sign players after the draft. If so, some may gamble that they can sign a QB like McNabb, Bulger, VY, or trade for Kolb instead of reaching for a QB. Obviously not every team can get McNabb, but each could believe they can. As opposed to FA before the draft when teams know they didn't get a player to fill a need. What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

I think there is a point in everyones warroom mock draft where the talent level drops off where you are better off taking a player that has a higher likelihood of making the team because of need than stockpiling talent at one position. What that breaking point is I am sure is different for each team. Probably the more stockpiled teams can afford to trade down and focus on need over talent.I don't agree with the assertion that the Patriots are somehow a "smarter" team at drafting. True that they have made some savvy moves to stockpile picks and trade down, but they don't have some kind of oracle in picking great draft picks. I think there will be more activity at the top of the first round in terms of trades, as the owners knowingly understand that by the time the new CBA is in place, the rookie wage scale will make the upper tier picks more attractive/marketable.Should be fun.

 

[Khalua83]

Its going to be fun to see how active free agency is once they are finally allowed to trade. If after the draft I wonder if this is going to cause more or less moves then normal.

 

[shader]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

I'm not as sure about this. One thing to consider is whether the teams will get a chance to sign players after the draft. If so, some may gamble that they can sign a QB like McNabb, Bulger, VY, or trade for Kolb instead of reaching for a QB. Obviously not every team can get McNabb, but each could believe they can. As opposed to FA before the draft when teams know they didn't get a player to fill a need. What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.Same thing with many other teams. Bulger and VY are not two options that are going to excite teams. McNabb, Palmer and Kolb are the three likely players to change teams...but can a team gamble their entire season on it? I doubt it.

Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick and Dalton...all gone in the first two rounds.

I also think you are underestimating the value of free agency. It's natural that without free agency, teams have more holes in this draft than they do in most drafts. Most teams like to "shore up" their big holes BEFORE the draft, so that they can truly go bpa. This year that isn't an option.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.

If they "reach" for a QB that turns out to be a bust - especially if there are no OTAs and limited training camp for the rookie QB to learn - then their 2011 season is toast anyway and they lost out on a chance to draft an impact player in the early rounds as well.Using your example, the Titans could always re-sign Kerry Collins and tread water for another season. There will be enough retread QBs on the free agent market to fill team needs.With all that said, from what I've been reading you may just very well be correct that QBs will be over-drafted. As a fan of a team that has a QB, I hope that is what happens.

 

[shader]

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.

If they "reach" for a QB that turns out to be a bust - especially if there are no OTAs and limited training camp for the rookie QB to learn - then their 2011 season is toast anyway and they lost out on a chance to draft an impact player in the early rounds as well.Using your example, the Titans could always re-sign Kerry Collins and tread water for another season. There will be enough retread QBs on the free agent market to fill team needs.With all that said, from what I've been reading you may just very well be correct that QBs will be over-drafted. As a fan of a team that has a QB, I hope that is what happens.

Yeah but they got a year of experience with a rookie QB.I'm not really saying it's the right move, but teams will be desperate. The Titans WILL pick a QB. It's guaranteed. You also don't want to go into free agency with a gaping hole, because trying to swing a trade when you have no QB's is going to cost an arm and a leg.If the Titans have only Rusty Smith and choose not to draft a QB, their chances of landing a QB in a trade are going to be costly. Teams will know how desperate they are.I do agree it will be a great thing for teams with QB's as they watch the QB's fly off the board.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

I'm not as sure about this. One thing to consider is whether the teams will get a chance to sign players after the draft. If so, some may gamble that they can sign a QB like McNabb, Bulger, VY, or trade for Kolb instead of reaching for a QB. Obviously not every team can get McNabb, but each could believe they can. As opposed to FA before the draft when teams know they didn't get a player to fill a need. What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.Same thing with many other teams. Bulger and VY are not two options that are going to excite teams. McNabb, Palmer and Kolb are the three likely players to change teams...but can a team gamble their entire season on it? I doubt it.

Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick and Dalton...all gone in the first two rounds.

I also think you are underestimating the value of free agency. It's natural that without free agency, teams have more holes in this draft than they do in most drafts. Most teams like to "shore up" their big holes BEFORE the draft, so that they can truly go bpa. This year that isn't an option.

The Titans still can keep Collins and VY if they opt to. I'm guessing teams will be more willing to gamble their 2011 season on getting a QB instead of reaching for the wrong guy. Besides, most teams aren't quite as desperate as you're stating. I'll take the under on 7 QBs in the first 2 rounds.

How many teams signed franchise caliber QBs in free agency the last few years? How many traded for them?

The draft will be interesting, but I think you're overestimating the impact of the FA timeline.

 

[shader]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

I'm not as sure about this. One thing to consider is whether the teams will get a chance to sign players after the draft. If so, some may gamble that they can sign a QB like McNabb, Bulger, VY, or trade for Kolb instead of reaching for a QB. Obviously not every team can get McNabb, but each could believe they can. As opposed to FA before the draft when teams know they didn't get a player to fill a need. What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.Same thing with many other teams. Bulger and VY are not two options that are going to excite teams. McNabb, Palmer and Kolb are the three likely players to change teams...but can a team gamble their entire season on it? I doubt it.

Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick and Dalton...all gone in the first two rounds.

I also think you are underestimating the value of free agency. It's natural that without free agency, teams have more holes in this draft than they do in most drafts. Most teams like to "shore up" their big holes BEFORE the draft, so that they can truly go bpa. This year that isn't an option.

The Titans still can keep Collins and VY if they opt to. I'm guessing teams will be more willing to gamble their 2011 season on getting a QB instead of reaching for the wrong guy. Besides, most teams aren't quite as desperate as you're stating. I'll take the under on 7 QBs in the first 2 rounds.

How many teams signed franchise caliber QBs in free agency the last few years? How many traded for them?

The draft will be interesting, but I think you're overestimating the impact of the FA timeline.

Perhaps. We will see.I think the Titans are done with VY for sure, so that isn't an option. And Collins might be retiring, so they can't put the eggs in his basket either.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

not being able to trade active players for picks is gonna make the draft somewhat boring.

I know picks for picks trades happen all the time, but I think it will mean less movement too.

 

[FUBAR]

Thinking about this for another minute, I can see teams "reaching" for need later in the draft (after the first two rounds) instead of having a body at that position already.

To use the Titans as an example again, they signed Nate Washington after the 2008 season to fill an immediate need. They waited until 4.126 to take Hawkins, another deep threat (never panned out, but that's a different story). In hindsight, if they hadn't taken Washington I can see where they might have drafted Mario Manningham in the 3rd instead of Stevens, or made a move up in the 2nd for DeSean Jackson, but I don't think they would have passed on CJ. I think we'll see a lot more of these types of picks instead of reaching early and passing on a player who is truly better.

Besides, if the team hasn't addressed any needs in FA, they'd have more needs to take BPA among if that's how they want to go. Again using the Titans, I'm not convinced QB is a more pressing need than DE or DT. Especially if they decide they can bring VY or Collins back - FWIW, VY has stated he wants to return. So they're more likely to take BPA between DT, DE, and QB.

I suppose some teams will reach for a QB, but I don't see all 7 going that high. I do think we'll see more pick for pick trades.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm starting to get juiced up for the draft. Really there are two things in this draft that make it different than any I've seen:

1. No set rookie scale

2. No free agency has occurred.

So for the first time in many years, the number 1 team cannot negotiate terms with the player beforehand.

Also, it's very likely that the initial salaries for rookies will not be near as damaging as they have been in recent years.

That adds quite a bit of intrigue and drama to the draft.

In recent years, the start of the draft has been very static with very little trading. This hasn't always been the case. In years past, trading seemed to occur more often.

I feel like we really have a scenario where there is more unknown and intrigue at the top of the draft than I can ever remember.

Another area in which the lockout may affect the draft is that I feel more teams will be drafting for need, rather than drafting BPA. Teams do not have the luxury of having free agency beforehand. Think of all the QB's that are needed. These QB's will go quickly. I bet 7 QB's go in the first two rounds.

With no free agency, I expect teams with solid rosters to find great bargains as teams desperately reach for need. It's hard to gamble on getting someone in free agency to fill a need. There will be a ton of "reach" picks in this draft, and when teams go on QB runs, DT runs, etc...you will potentially see some desperate trading.

I think one or two smart teams that already have good rosters (see the Patriots) could make a killing in this draft.

I'm not as sure about this. One thing to consider is whether the teams will get a chance to sign players after the draft. If so, some may gamble that they can sign a QB like McNabb, Bulger, VY, or trade for Kolb instead of reaching for a QB. Obviously not every team can get McNabb, but each could believe they can. As opposed to FA before the draft when teams know they didn't get a player to fill a need. What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

You can't "gamble" that you are going to get a top QB. What if you don't? For instance, the Titans have Rusty Smith. They cannot gamble that they can get McNabb, Palmer or Kolb. Because if they don't, their 2011 season is absolutely toast.Same thing with many other teams. Bulger and VY are not two options that are going to excite teams. McNabb, Palmer and Kolb are the three likely players to change teams...but can a team gamble their entire season on it? I doubt it.

Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick and Dalton...all gone in the first two rounds.

I also think you are underestimating the value of free agency. It's natural that without free agency, teams have more holes in this draft than they do in most drafts. Most teams like to "shore up" their big holes BEFORE the draft, so that they can truly go bpa. This year that isn't an option.

The Titans still can keep Collins and VY if they opt to. I'm guessing teams will be more willing to gamble their 2011 season on getting a QB instead of reaching for the wrong guy. Besides, most teams aren't quite as desperate as you're stating. I'll take the under on 7 QBs in the first 2 rounds.

How many teams signed franchise caliber QBs in free agency the last few years? How many traded for them?

The draft will be interesting, but I think you're overestimating the impact of the FA timeline.

Perhaps. We will see.I think the Titans are done with VY for sure, so that isn't an option. And Collins might be retiring, so they can't put the eggs in his basket either.

I disagree. They might very well be done with him, but I won't be surprised if he's back. Right now, I'm actually hoping for it. Another year, new coach. But that's basically because I don't want them to draft a QB in the 1st unless it's Gabbert.

 

[zadok]

Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick and Dalton...all gone in the first two rounds.

Totally agreed.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

What teams truly draft for need instead of taking BPA?

All things considered, suppose a team has a G that retired, a franchise-quality LT that is probably going to be a UFA and another G that has had back problems for the past two years. It's not a reach to say that the team will be very aggressive in re-building the line and let other players drop. One last thing about BPA is that sometimes the BPA has off the field issues, is a high maintenance diva, etc., that teams don't want to bother with.

 

[massraider]

We went from losing the only franchise QB in the draft to 7 guys going in the first two rounds?

I doubt it. I don't think teams will be more desperate to fill needs, I think the opposite. Teams can go BPA, because they have several needs, and the BPA fills one of them. I don't buy the assertion that teams go for BPA anyway. They go for BPA at an area of need. Teams draft for need, I can't really believe anyone thinks otherwise.

I don't see a team rushing to draft Andy Dalton because they aren't sure if they can get Kevin Kolb. That just doesn't make sense. Teams take a QB in the first two rounds because they feel they can hitch their wagon to him, and he may be a franchise guy. They don't do it just to have another QB. And if they don't have a guy rated high, they won't draft him high.

7 QBs in two rounds, a lot of teams have to match up perfectly with a QB they like, meaning that at some point in the 2nd round, one of the teams that didn't take Mallet off their board has got to want him, and also have a need. Some team that runs the WCO is going to decide that Dalton is the QB of the future.

Nah, I think the linemen will be the story of this draft. Everyone need O and D line, and that's where the quality is this year. So teams can take BPA, and still fill a need.

I think these QBs are going to disappoint a lot of people, where they go in the draft.

 

[shader]

We went from losing the only franchise QB in the draft to 7 guys going in the first two rounds?I doubt it. I don't think teams will be more desperate to fill needs, I think the opposite. Teams can go BPA, because they have several needs, and the BPA fills one of them. I don't buy the assertion that teams go for BPA anyway. They go for BPA at an area of need. Teams draft for need, I can't really believe anyone thinks otherwise. I don't see a team rushing to draft Andy Dalton because they aren't sure if they can get Kevin Kolb. That just doesn't make sense. Teams take a QB in the first two rounds because they feel they can hitch their wagon to him, and he may be a franchise guy. They don't do it just to have another QB. And if they don't have a guy rated high, they won't draft him high. 7 QBs in two rounds, a lot of teams have to match up perfectly with a QB they like, meaning that at some point in the 2nd round, one of the teams that didn't take Mallet off their board has got to want him, and also have a need. Some team that runs the WCO is going to decide that Dalton is the QB of the future. Nah, I think the linemen will be the story of this draft. Everyone need O and D line, and that's where the quality is this year. So teams can take BPA, and still fill a need. I think these QBs are going to disappoint a lot of people, where they go in the draft.

If Newton goes 1 and Gabbert goes 3 (or vice versa), then I'm convinced 7 will go in the first 2 rounds. Titans would then probably reach for Locker at 8 (from what I'm hearing), Skins would consider Mallett...then you still have plenty of other teams that need QB's. Once the top guys go, these other qb's will start going quickly.I am convinced that there will be more reaches in this draft than normal due to position scarcity and the lack of free agency. We'll see.

 

[RJS113]

While I think the Bucs are likely to trade up in the 1st (for Kerrigan or Jordan), I can see them trade back a few times in other rounds to accumulate some extra 6th and 7th round picks. The Bucs are big on signing undrafted free agents, but UDFA's can't be signed until the lockout is lifted. I can see that make the Bucs (and other teams) look to gain more picks. I can also see teams trading 2012 picks for 2011 picks for the same reason.

 

[loose circuits]

man, people need to give Rusty Smith a break. He is a developmental QB prospect and has cannon and quick release. I know Jim Miller was high on him coming out last year coming out of school as quality developmental type of guy. Rusty didn't play well in his couple appearances last season, but what rookie would under the circumstances? I think he's going to put up a fight for that job regardless who they draft.

It happens every year- a QB comes out of no where. Why not him

As for the draft, it all depends on what happens with the CBA negotiations so it's really irrelevant to speculate. Hopefully, they have something taken care of next week. Sounds like progress is being made