How to identify waiver wire studs? (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

As an ongoing promise to myself, each year I pledge to get a little better at fantasy football. Each year I try to learn something from the past season to apply it to my future seasons. This year’s lesson: I need to learn how to identify the waiver wire wonders.

The league that I care about most is a 10 team home grown league, 9 starters and 16 man rosters. So that leaves a lot of room for waivers to play a large part. Our league likes the short bench because they have seen that a few good players can be picked up each year and they will have an impact to the league. I personally do not like it, but hey I get overruled every year trying to change it.

So I believe that next year I’m going to mix up my draft day strategy a little bit and take some really deep gambles late in our draft. If they pan out great, if they fall on their faces, that’s okay then I have dead weight to cut. But this leads me to my question for my fellow FBGers.

How do you identify a wavier wire wonder versus a waiver wire dud?

Do you have any methods for identifying breakout players? Do you use stats? Do you just watch the games and call it a gut feeling?

In the past I believe that I have been too slow to act on some players (Colston & MJD come to mind) because I feel like they have one breakout week and that they will not do it again. Then they explode again, and then due to waiver tiebreakers I lose out on them. Sometimes I have a shot at picking them up but I instead I will pick up the dud (think W.Lundy or S.Gado).

I’m anxious to hear your thoughts on this subject TIA

 

[Big Score]

Before the season starts, pay attention to FA moves, Coaching changes ie; the new Coaches offensive philosphy (HC & OC) & pre season.

In season pay attention to injuries & the backups ie; Ronald Curry at the end of this season just past.

 

[jeter23]

To me, it makes a big difference if we are talking about dynasty vs redraft, but here are some points to consider. It is also very dependant on the number of teams in a league and roster size.

* Watch for how a player ends a season. I like to look for those guys that finished well and could lead then into a successful season the next year. (See Hackett, Dem. Williams, and possibly Baskett)

* I think it is easiest to find quality WRs compared to RBs and this is something I take into account when drafting. For example, Furrey, Colston and Cotchery all finished in the top 20 and could have been had via the WW last offseason.

Free agency does play a big role, as already mentioned. Not only does it affect the player that is changing teams, but the players he left behind. This again reminds me of Hank Baskett. It is assumed Stallworth will be leaving Phily, possibly opening a spot for Hank.

* Leaving room on your roster. In one league last year, I didn't take a chance on guys like Colston and Furrey, even after reading about them here, because I didn't have the room on my roster. I think it is a good idea to have a spot or two availabe to take a chance on some guys like this. Both of these "hit", but there were many others discussed here last offseason that missed.

 

[EBF]

The number one thing I look at is pedigree. Where was the player drafted? I snagged Bernard Berrian in multiple leagues last offseason because I knew he was an early draft pick and I noticed that he had put up a few decent games down the stretch last season.

People are always too quick to discount and discard early draft picks. Ladell Betts and Justin Fargas didn't come out of nowhere. Betts was a second round pick. Fargas was a third round pick who had once led the NFL in preseason rushing.

Not every rookie explodes onto the scene. A quick glance at the career trajectories of guys like Plaxico Burress, Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, Donald Driver, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Santana Moss shows that many highly-talented WRs can take years to start paying dividends. Ahman Green, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Chester Taylor, and Thomas Jones had unspectacular starts to their careers.

Of course, there aren't usually a lot of young former first round picks sitting on waivers, but there are always players that people were too quick to give up on. I recently snagged Courtney Roby and Travis Wilson off waivers. Roby was an early third round pick in 2005 and Wilson was a third round pick in 2006. These kind of players really shouldn't be on waivers, but they're out there.

Another thing that I look at is production. Has a player been productive when given opportunities? You shouldn't ding a guy who hasn't produced if he hasn't even gotten the chance. However, if you find players who were productive in limited duty but remain unheralded, then you might have a worthy option on your hands.

I took Thomas Jones in the 10th round of Zealots 18 in 2003 because I knew he was a former early draft pick, I was impressed with his performance on the Buccaneers, and I had seen him make a few outstanding plays in a preseason game. I took Larry Johnson in the 7th round of the same draft because he was an early draft pick who had unfairly been given up on.

I took Michael Turner in the 30th round of Zealots 30 in 2004. Why? Because I knew he was a star in college and because he had been productive in the preseason and regular season of his rookie year.

When Chester Taylor was still on the Ravens, I dedicated an entire thread to him and recommended trading for him because it was obvious from his stats that he would eventually get a chance to start. Sure enough, he got a starting job and his value has increased significantly.

In 2003, I snagged both Domanick Davis and Rudi Johnson off waivers in the same league.

In 2002, I picked up Chad Johnson off waivers midseason.

There are always a few decent sleepers out there. You just have to pay attention when a player starts producing a little bit. Also, you have to keep in mind where he was drafted in the NFL draft and what he did in college. Rudi Johnson was a star at Auburn. Chester Taylor was a star at Auburn. Michael Turner was hugely productive at Northern Illinois. Chad Johnson was a terror during the second half of his season at Oregon State.

The reason I'm carrying guys like Matt Cassel, Brad Smith, and Derek Hagan in multiple leagues is because I see things in their production and/or pedigree that makes me think they have a chance to eventually become players in the NFL. It's always a longshot, but the payoff is worth the small risk of roster space.

 

[EBF]

Regarding Colston, I vividly recall him getting a goal line look with the first team in the preseason before the Saints had even traded Stallworth (I think). That was enough of a warning sign to get me to take a second look at the scouting reports and combine results. Unfortunately, I didn't see anything in the numbers or reports that made me think Colston was worth a shot.

Nevertheless, the warning sign was there. Everyone should've taken notice when he was getting first team reps in the preseason.

 

[buck naked]

Its all about opportunity. Who is or will be getting an opportunity to play? You have to look ahead a couple weeks. It was clear Romo was going to get a chance. I picked up R. Caldwell two weeks before his stats went up because NE's WR's were not good, and he has talent and was worth a shot. BE VERY AGGRESSIVE.

 

[nygiants56]

Pre-season is definitely the place to watch players , as you prepare for the upcoming fantasy draft..

there was plenty of buzz about Colston in pre-season, and he exploded out of the gate, 6 TDs in his first 7 games..he was snatched off waivers, in most leagues, by week 4.

Portis lit it up in his first pre-season in the NFL, he went on to rush for 1500 yards that year, and didn't even start a game until week 5.

Santana Moss , in 2003, had a very good pre-season with the Jets and went on to record 10 tds that year.

Maurice-Jones-Drew looked impressive in limited action in pre-season, and it in doing so, grabbed everyone's attention since the guy in front of him, Fred Taylor, is/was injury prone ..MJD helped many a fantasy football team to a championship in 2006.

I like what was said a few posts back, about looking at how a player finishes a season, because that usually spills over into the following season..so guys like Santonio Holmes , Betts, MJD, might be great additions to any fantasy squad in '07.

a good rule of thumb for waiver wire gems, is the 3-week rule, if they perform well for 3 weeks, then pick that player up.

 

[delusional]

common sense

gut feeling

coaching changes/philosphy

opposing teamates ( helps with WRs )

contract years

3yr rule for WRs

Past 5 years in my leagues i have drafted a guy late that I had a gut feeling would break out. I won my league 3 times so far. Some of my past pick ups were Ward, Wayne, Walker. This was before they blew up and became top tier guys.

 

[-OZ-]

My record is 50/50, so don't ask.

I've picked up Antonio Gates, Wilie Parker, Tom Brady, Houshmanzadeh and Larry Johnson off waivers.

A couple weeks later, I dropped each of them.

 

[pettifogger]

I create a watch list so I always have a top 5-10 RBs and 5-10 WRs I want to follow closely, updating every week of course since those guys are likely to be grabbed by someone else.

I also look for how high they were drafted, especially the 2nd through 4th round guys in their first three years in the league, since the first round guys are normally taken. It helps of course if the player ahead of your targeted player has an injury history, or is old enough or mediocre enough so that an opportunity might come up.

Sometimes I just sort the FA pool by YPC or YPR in descending order, to see if any name pops up that I was not following closely.

For RBs the big question always is, if the starter gets hurt, is this a guy I'd end up using every week.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'm able to find in season guys by reading Game Recaps and looking at target data.

Who is getting the ball thrown to him? Did he make a play and it was nullified by a penalty?

This alone got me to grab Reche Caldwell and call him out as my Sleeper of the Week before the MNF game vs. Minnesota. He went nuts and scored his first TD.

I don't hit on every sleeper, but a 30% clip is pretty good (I'm guestimating here) considering that most were WW fodder.

WRs = Target data. Also familiarity with the QB if there is a switch (see Billy McMullen / Tarvaris Jackson)

TEs = Same deal as WRs. VY and Bo Scaife.

RBS = Opportunity. Is he 2nd in line? Will he be the featured back if #1 is out, or will it be a committee?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

First and foremost - It's about TALENT. WATCH the players. You will get a feel for who has the goods and who has stats because SOMEONE had to get them.

TALENT will create its own OPPORTUNITY.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Never/ever assume that because a stud starter leaves a team that the 2nd or 3rd stringer is going to be a great offseason/waiver wire pickup and they automatically become the starting WR/RB etc. Usually the rookie draft and trades throw all of those assumptions out the door. I'd say for every backup that is promoted to starter (even avg. NFL starter) there are 10+ 2nd stringers that remain backups or even get demoted or cut.

 

[Rounders]

This is some good stuff here guys. I was mainly referring to re-draft leagues becuase I feel that in dynasty leagues (at least the ones I'm in) have larger benches and therefore you can take more chances on players.

I agree with Bloom that "TALENT will create its own OPPORTUNITY". It's a great point, but I guess my problem is evaluating the talent then.

 

[coolnerd]

Excellent thread that should be getting more attention.

A few of notes, some of which should be obvious, but one the best pieces advice I got was "don't be afraid to address the obvious"

1) As a draftnerd, I am evaluating players to have a file on them. For as much as we make about the rookie draft in dyansty leagues, I will generally only draft 3-5 players per league, but have the oppotunity to make numerous waiver wire pick-ups.

2) Have a sytem for gathering news information. Part of that is being a regular here, but there are several sources of news notes around the web. Use them regularly. Also, weed your way through at least some of the off-season fluff pieces.

3) At times, literally just flip through your league's waiver wire. Sometimes even in very good competitive leagues, there is a player just sitting there.

4) Watch the transactions in your league. People often try to slip someone through, make a mistake or simply has a different valuation of a guy than you do.

5) Don't chase single week production. Every year, some 4th team WR has a good game in week one or two. Be careful not assume that this guy who barely made his NFL roster does not make it to your bench because his team his was behind and/or the Db covering him fell down allowing a long score.

6) Understand which NFL systems, produce fantasy numbers even with marginal talents. Probably won't get you long-term studs, but Mike Fuerry on the Rams was starting worthy in 2006.

7) Shop when you don't need to. I know a lot of people think ______ is always available on the WW. Well, that seems to be true, except when I need the _____ for this week because of byes and a twisted ankle.

 

[toppshelff]

Key to getting the WW studs is to pick a lot of them up. Then, when they show their true colours, you can make the call.

Challenge to picking them up is roster size, as the OP has suggested. I always have a "dropper" or two available on my team. If I get too rich in talent and players in a WW trial period, I trade them. I trade a lot, usually a proven player plus one of my WW works for a better proven player. The upside is always the open bench space for another WW project.

I have a ~25% success rate on WW, but I get many of them, so it works out well. I do trade away guys that end up being super (MJD, Colston), but end up with players and/or draft picks that pay off (Marvin, Gates and 1.04 for those two).

 

[doomsdaydoc]

most free agent studs are receivers- one thing is to pay attention to numbers of targets and you will see who the Qb likes throwing to

 

[Rounders]

How soon will you guys pounce on a player?

For example MJD was grabbed off of waivers in my league prior to week 4.

Here's his game stats:

Week 1 - 2 carries for 8 yards = 0 points

Week 2 - 2 carries for 4 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards = 0 points

Week 3 - 13 carries for 103 yards and 4 catches for 32 yards & TD = 19 points

I was set to pick him up if he had another good week in week 4, but a team that was devasted by RB injuries took him after this week.

My thinking was, well he's taking a risk picking up a player that is not even the starter and had one good week. 13 weeks later he was laughing his way to 2nd place in the league and MJD had a big part of that success.

I learned in this story that I can not sleep on players, but did anyone really know that MJD would turn into the player he was after his week 3 performance? Do I chalk this one up as a loss for me because I failed to see it or do I chalk it up as a good/lucky pick for the other guy?

 

[EBF]

If you're in a large dynasty league then you have to be pre-emptive and take some shots on players almost before they even have a single good game. I know Colston was gone in all of my leagues after the first week. If you didn't get him in the offseason and you didn't get him after the first week, then you missed him.

In a redraft I'd also say that you should take notice of a player after one goodweek. This is especially true early in the season with situations that had previously appeared murky. For example, if we don't know who the Vikings' #1 WR is going into next season, and their first round rookie WR goes for 85 yards in week one, then that's a guy you want to pick up.

You want to pick up players who have the talent and opportunity to consistently put up strong numbers. The best bets seem to be talented players in an open situation (i.e. Colston on the Saints, Berrian on the Bears, and Jennings on the Packers). In addition to being talented, these guys had pretty weak competition for catches.

 

[pettifogger]

How soon will you guys pounce on a player? For example MJD was grabbed off of waivers in my league prior to week 4.Here's his game stats:Week 1 - 2 carries for 8 yards = 0 pointsWeek 2 - 2 carries for 4 yards and 2 catches for 6 yards = 0 pointsWeek 3 - 13 carries for 103 yards and 4 catches for 32 yards & TD = 19 pointsI was set to pick him up if he had another good week in week 4, but a team that was devasted by RB injuries took him after this week.My thinking was, well he's taking a risk picking up a player that is not even the starter and had one good week. 13 weeks later he was laughing his way to 2nd place in the league and MJD had a big part of that success.I learned in this story that I can not sleep on players, but did anyone really know that MJD would turn into the player he was after his week 3 performance? Do I chalk this one up as a loss for me because I failed to see it or do I chalk it up as a good/lucky pick for the other guy?

I picked him up after week three in both of my leagues. To me he fit the exact profile of a player who you want in the last spot on the RB bench because of upside -- relatively high draft pick (second round), from UCLA so he played good competition in college, speedy with a knack for breaking plays including 6 return TDs in college, catches passes out of the backfield so even if he doesn't get a majority of touches he might get a few points in yards, plus if Taylor got hurt it looked like he'd start. He was the sixth RB selected in the draft, after only Bush, Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Addai, and Lendale White. No way, of course, to claim that I knew he'd rip off an 8 consective game TD scoring string, but there were indicators that he'd be worth tucking away.

 

[Couch Potato]

Rounders,

A lot of good pointers above and I'd probably only be repeating a lot of stuff by describing my approach, but your biggest problem as I see it is situation. You're in a 10 team league with short benches, and that means taking a flyer on some unknown likely means dropping a decent productive player, maybe one who is also a breakout candidate. If your league is only 180 roster spots deep, you aren't likely to be dropping useful guys for flyers.

A lot of the players the posters above are talking about were stashed because there was extra room and the roster spot wasn't needed for bye/injury replacement production. With short rosters in redraft you often can't load up on prospects and hope they hit right away, because the fact is that the vast majority don't. It's a numbers game, and even the astute fantasy player is going to have a low hit rate. I'd say a 25% hit rate is doing very well, so if you have just one spot on your bench available for reach-type players, the odds are against you landing one. For every Colston there are a bunch of hyped young WRs that do nothing in their 1st year.

The thing I'd recommend that others haven't yet (and I'm sure this will make your wife REAL happy ) is to keep your current league and use sound roster strategy which may not allow for taking many shots at sleepers because of its structure, but add another league or two with deeper benches, perhaps a keeper or dynasty format, so you can have the fun of trying to land those sleepers without gutting your team of players you may need to make it through the season.

One thing I can add concerning the picking up of sleepers. Ignore the naysayers, for they will always be there. There is a reason these guys are sleepers - they aren't popular among the uninformed majority. There will always be those who say MJD is too small, or Colston is too slow or on a lousy team or a 7th round pick, or Priest Holmes can't be any good in KC because he was a castoff former UDFA from BAL, or whatever. Don't be afraid to be wrong. you'll never get one of these guys by being closed-minded.