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How to pick a kicker the rest of the way (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter badmofo
- Start date
Scorehoard
Footballguy
All a kicker has to do is stay warm and loose throughout a game. Factor that in with the heaters they have on the sidelines. Point A + point B + below avg. scoring off.+ nice scoreable schedule=
DAVE RAYNER
DAVE RAYNER
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I like this guy too. We MUST carry two kickers, my other guy is Josh Brown. We get a ton of extra points for long field goals. Green Bay seems to let him take a kick whenever they get anywhere close. Am I wrong about that?All a kicker has to do is stay warm and loose throughout a game. Factor that in with the heaters they have on the sidelines. Point A + point B + below avg. scoring off.+ nice scoreable schedule= DAVE RAYNER
The Shizzle
Footballguy
I draftany kicker, wait 3 weeks then I pick the highest kicker in free agency, then every 4 weeks, I compare my kicker to the highest in free agency and change my roster if needed. I really dont think there is a way to pick a kicker.
I drafted Josh Brown, now I have Nate Kaeding.
I drafted Josh Brown, now I have Nate Kaeding.
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
The key to picking a kicker is looking for an offense that can move the ball between the 20s but not able to punch it in at a good rate. Think Rackers from last year... yes he was a good kicker but no better than most others for the most part. He got as many points as he did because the Cards could not punch it in as often.
This logic led me to Wilkins this year and it has paid off big time so far.
This logic led me to Wilkins this year and it has paid off big time so far.
Seems logical. What about the Rams going into this season gave you the feeling they weren't going to be good in the red zone? I'm asking this as a serious question. Going into the season I would not have had Rams on my radar using this approach. I thought Steven Jackson would be punching the ball in or their passing game would have them in the end zone.
SSOG
Moderator
It's still early, and kickers are very inconsistant from week-to-week. I expect Elam to finish in the top-10, as usual.I always think that Elam should be the first kicker drafted every year, since he's the closest thing to a can't-miss... but once the season's already started and it's clear who the good kickers are going to be, I have no problem sitting him or even cutting him if I have someone clearly better (right now, that'd be Gould, Wilkins, or Kaeding).I've been sitting on Elam all year, he has yet to live up to what I expected out of him
I actually think it's a pretty good strategy to TRADE for kickers early in the season. I know, people are scoffing at the idea... but the reasons kickers are drafted so late isn't because they don't hold value (ask Rackers owners last year if he held any value), it's because nobody knows WHICH kickers will hold value. After 3-4 weeks, it starts to become clear who the quality kickers are, and landing one of those kickers will gain you an advantage that usually far outweighs the cost. Most people are amenable to tossing kickers into trades as a mere "throw-in". If you're trading with the Kaeding owner and he offers a trade that you like, balk a bit and see if you can get him to throw in Kaeding as well.Like I said, I think owning Kaeding, Wilkins, or Gould is a big advantage this year. Those three are where it's at.
SSOG
Moderator
Actually, historically the Rams have been one of the top offenses in the league between the 20s and very mediocre in the red zone. Furthermore, Linehan's offenses have also carried the knock that they're great between the 20s and poor in the red zone. Sending Linehan to the Rams was like creating some cosmic disruption that pretty much guaranteed that the Rams would get huge chunks of yards and then stall in the red zone at a historic rate.
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
Thats a good question, Jackson is a flat out BEAST and I have been a fan since his Oregon State days, but a friend of mine is a big Rams fan so I have seen almost all of the Rams games the past 3 years (he has the Ticket and multiple TVs). For whatever reason they just have trouble punching it in, and my theory is with speed like they have on the outside they need space to operate in. When you get in close to the goal-line Torry Holt's advantage (speed) is minimized because he has less space to run in. If you can put one guy on Holt you can stack the line more and stop Jackson. Now thats just my theory, I could be talking out of my #### but it seems to be what happens. There are always kickers who are very good (Graham, Vinatieri, Akers) but if their team scores a lot of TDs, they tend to be less effective as fantasy players (3pts vs 1pt).
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
Also, if I can emphasize anything in terms of draft strategy... DO NOT PICK YOUR KICKER BASED ON LAST YEAR'S STATS.
It took me some time to learn this lesson and I always argued that a good kicker can provide a HUGE advantage. I was right, but field goals are very fickle like pitcher wins in baseball... very reliant on the TEAM not as much the PLAYER.
In 3 seasons I tried this and I took Jay Feely (2003), Jeff Wilkins (2004), and David Akers (2005). In each of their prior years they were the top scoring kicker in our league and in each of the years I drafted them they stunk.
Always look forward for potential, not backwards for history.
It took me some time to learn this lesson and I always argued that a good kicker can provide a HUGE advantage. I was right, but field goals are very fickle like pitcher wins in baseball... very reliant on the TEAM not as much the PLAYER.
In 3 seasons I tried this and I took Jay Feely (2003), Jeff Wilkins (2004), and David Akers (2005). In each of their prior years they were the top scoring kicker in our league and in each of the years I drafted them they stunk.
Always look forward for potential, not backwards for history.
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Kevin Jones Fan
Footballguy
See Josh Brown. Perhaps with the offense decimated, he'll start getting more opportunities.
The Swarm
Footballguy
That's my strategy as well. I don't even know what team they're on sometimes. I look for a kicker who is in a higher bucket than my current kicker that has some stability in week to week production. Not injured? better points? Waiver request, here I come.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
K v. bad defense - you are looking for your K to be on a team that has a LOT of offensive opportunities, especially EARLY in the game.A team that moves the ball well in the first half will probably kick more FGs.
rumblinbumblinstumbler
Footballguy
I started with Elam and dropped him for Kaeding.
I usually like to draft kickers from teams that don't have a strong run game but can still move the ball. I always figure strong running games are usually more successful at punching a ball in for 6 than a team is that has to rely on the passing game. My thought this year was that the Denver running game would be iffier than in the past but that they should still be able to move the ball enough to get into field goal range. That really hasn't been the case. They are only scoring about 3x/game.
Now, San Diego does not really fit the above. Good running team that should be able to punch it in. But, they are moving the ball very well plus Marty is still somewhat conservative so it is working out.
I usually like to draft kickers from teams that don't have a strong run game but can still move the ball. I always figure strong running games are usually more successful at punching a ball in for 6 than a team is that has to rely on the passing game. My thought this year was that the Denver running game would be iffier than in the past but that they should still be able to move the ball enough to get into field goal range. That really hasn't been the case. They are only scoring about 3x/game.
Now, San Diego does not really fit the above. Good running team that should be able to punch it in. But, they are moving the ball very well plus Marty is still somewhat conservative so it is working out.
Dragon Bones
Footballguy
I go with the hot trends. Robbie Gould is pure money, this year's Neil Rackers. He and Wilkins lead the league.
Only the top ten WRs have scored more points than Gould. Gould has more points than Marvin Harrison in most leagues - Ha ha ha.
Kickers are the X factors that can put you ahead in head to head match ups
Only the top ten WRs have scored more points than Gould. Gould has more points than Marvin Harrison in most leagues - Ha ha ha.
Kickers are the X factors that can put you ahead in head to head match ups
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laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
I guess I have a completely different theory on drafting kickers. It has worked the last two years in a row for me.
The theory is get your kicker on a team that has weak RB's that will not score when the team gets in scoring territory. My kicker last year was Rackers, simply b/c I did not think JJ Arrington and the other RB's could get the job done inside the 20. Worked out perfectly. This year, I've got Robbie Gould b/c I really don't think the Bears RB's will score a lot inside the 20. That's not a knock on Thomas Jones, but honestly at the beginning of the year, who though the bears offense would explode like this? Keep in mind again, the RB's Jones and Benson have not been productive inside the 20 (2 TD's each) which leads to a ton of FG's. the high powered offenses like the Colts, Eagles, etc will lead to a lot of XP's which is NOT what you want. Anyways, this is just my crazy theory that I have lucked out with 2 years in a row.
The theory is get your kicker on a team that has weak RB's that will not score when the team gets in scoring territory. My kicker last year was Rackers, simply b/c I did not think JJ Arrington and the other RB's could get the job done inside the 20. Worked out perfectly. This year, I've got Robbie Gould b/c I really don't think the Bears RB's will score a lot inside the 20. That's not a knock on Thomas Jones, but honestly at the beginning of the year, who though the bears offense would explode like this? Keep in mind again, the RB's Jones and Benson have not been productive inside the 20 (2 TD's each) which leads to a ton of FG's. the high powered offenses like the Colts, Eagles, etc will lead to a lot of XP's which is NOT what you want. Anyways, this is just my crazy theory that I have lucked out with 2 years in a row.
hacman
Footballguy
Draft a kicker last in your draft and then consult Mike Herman's Kickermania article every week. If you stumble onto a Nate Kaeding, ride him. If you are paying attention to these things, you'll most always pick up the flavor of the year like Rackers last year or Gould this year.
BTW, Mike Herman=underrated.
BTW, Mike Herman=underrated.
KICKERMANIA! Mike Herman does all the work for you. I just look at his list and decide who my kicker will be. He's only let me down once this year (Scobee sucked this week). KICKERMANIA is a must read for me. I only wish it came out earlier than Thursday. How about Tuesday?
hoyaparanoia
Footballguy
Kickermania isn't my first read, but I have been paying attention to it more lately. I also would like to see it come out on Tuesdays. By thursdays release, the WW is pretty thin in my league.
tandl71
Footballguy
Last week, Kickermania had Scobee, Kasay, and Akers ranked #1, #2, and #3. Scobee wound up with 1 point, Kasay 2, and Akers 3.Pretty funny, but if you picked up any of these guys from free agency like me--NOT SO MUCHStatistical analysis is nice, but only if it actually helps. I'll keep throwing darts.
tombonneau
Footballguy
A guy I have and am holding onto is Akers. He's a good K who is only avg. like 6-7 pts per game, but its a steady 6-7 game in game out, no real duds (except last week...).
His last two full season's he's averaged 30 FG attempts. He had 22 in 2005 in like 12 games. This season with the Eagles offense flying high he is avg. a meager 1.1 per game.
IMO, this number simply has to increase. No way a guy in an offense that really hasn't changed much in three years and normally averages 30 fg attempts per season is going to literally half that number and end the season with like 17-18 attempts.
I'm sure some owner has already dropped him. If not they surely will for the week 9 bye, I'd pick him up then.
His last two full season's he's averaged 30 FG attempts. He had 22 in 2005 in like 12 games. This season with the Eagles offense flying high he is avg. a meager 1.1 per game.
IMO, this number simply has to increase. No way a guy in an offense that really hasn't changed much in three years and normally averages 30 fg attempts per season is going to literally half that number and end the season with like 17-18 attempts.
I'm sure some owner has already dropped him. If not they surely will for the week 9 bye, I'd pick him up then.
hacman
Footballguy
That's right, because guys like Stover and Viniatieri NEVER put up these scores. If you had been playing kicker roulette every week, chances are you would have noticed before most in your league that guys like Gould and Kaeding were money. Also, you could have spent a 12th round pick (of maybe higher) on a sleeper instead of Neil Rackers.
Pretty close to what I do.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Thought I would bump this thread. I know - kickers, just pick one and go with it, but...Anyone else looked at this recently? I've been starting Elam each week and it is really getting to be frustrating. Every point counts this time of year. Has anyone been using/tracking kicermania to see how the picks have been doing?
stevegamer
Footballguy
I've been starting Elam as well, and he hasn't been bad, just consistently adequate.I've been thinking about Anderson in one league where made/missed FG's get +/- decimal scoring at 0.1 per yard. Long FG tries are not the automatic good thing they are in most leagues, a missed 50+ yarder means you are looking at a serious chance of negative points.
MutantEnemies
Footballguy
Following the Remaining Schedule Rankings looks to be a nice roller coaster ride to me.Take Shayne Graham:Week 1 - 2nd overallWeek 2 - 1st overallWeek 7 - 7th overallWeek 8 - 17th overall
Week 9 - 18th overall Week 11 - 2nd overall, gee, hope you didn't sell too soon.I've noticed that but I haven't tracked it like you did above. That seems way to random to me for it to be of any use. If the rankings change that much on a weekly basis it makes me really question if it is worth anything or not.Following the Remaining Schedule Rankings looks to be a nice roller coaster ride to me.Take Shayne Graham:Week 1 - 2nd overallWeek 2 - 1st overallWeek 7 - 7th overallWeek 8 - 17th overall
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I agree with the earlier comments about teams that move the ball but stall inside the RZ, and also I liked the comments about bad RBs who can't punch it in.
I'll add this comment for leagues with distance bonuses - climate and coach.
1. The climate has to be amenable to trying long kicks. If it is a mudbath or a hailstorm or the Meadowlands, you're not kicking from beyond the 30 yard line.
2. Coach - will he let his kicker try from 45+, or is he ultra-conservative and decide to punt from the opposing 33?
Add to that punter and defense. Oakland has a great punter, and he pooches a great kick. However, that doesn't help Janikowski try longer field goals.
As for defensive influence? Similar reasoning. If a coach believes in his defense, he won't worry about possibly giving the other team the ball ath their own 40 yard line in case the kicker misses from 50. The coach must believe in the kicker, feel he has a big leg, and let him try those kinds of kicks. A kicker with a 60 yard leg does no good for a coach who wants to pin the opposing team inside their own 5 yard line and play field position.
I'll add this comment for leagues with distance bonuses - climate and coach.
1. The climate has to be amenable to trying long kicks. If it is a mudbath or a hailstorm or the Meadowlands, you're not kicking from beyond the 30 yard line.
2. Coach - will he let his kicker try from 45+, or is he ultra-conservative and decide to punt from the opposing 33?
Add to that punter and defense. Oakland has a great punter, and he pooches a great kick. However, that doesn't help Janikowski try longer field goals.
As for defensive influence? Similar reasoning. If a coach believes in his defense, he won't worry about possibly giving the other team the ball ath their own 40 yard line in case the kicker misses from 50. The coach must believe in the kicker, feel he has a big leg, and let him try those kinds of kicks. A kicker with a 60 yard leg does no good for a coach who wants to pin the opposing team inside their own 5 yard line and play field position.
bonesman
Footballguy
I like to try to get the kicker on the same team as my QB... i won't reach, but if he's there when i finally take a kicker, that's who'll i'll grab. When the RB get's a TD i still get a point... and if my QB can't convert on 3rd down in the redzone... i still get a few points.
delusional
Footballguy
im riding tynes from here on out
Big Score
Footballguy
I like reasonably accurate Dome Kickers, on so so offenses.
Offense that are too good, you see the red zone opportunities are coverted into TD's at a higher rate than the so so offenses, resulting in more PAT's & less FG's.
Morten Anderson would be an obvious choice. Too bad he can't kick for distance anymore or he'd be golden. Hanson is another good choice IMO.
Offense that are too good, you see the red zone opportunities are coverted into TD's at a higher rate than the so so offenses, resulting in more PAT's & less FG's.
Morten Anderson would be an obvious choice. Too bad he can't kick for distance anymore or he'd be golden. Hanson is another good choice IMO.
tribecalledjeff's grl
Footballguy
Surprised nobody has mentioned taking the K on the same team as your offensive stud, given that said team is a high scoring offense. It's a more conservative method to ensure that you are getting at least some points when the team gets into the red zone. I have paired Carney with Brees and am very happy with it. If Brees throws for a TD then I get 6+1 for extra point, if they stall then I get 3 for FG, and if they run it in then at least I still get 1 point. On high scoring offenses, this is a conservative way to go - lower standard deviation this way. If I had Manning, LT, LJ, or anyone else that scores a decent percentage of their team's TDs, I would look at going this route.
Big Score
Footballguy
Good strategy, tribecalledjeff's grl. Hadn't thought about Kickers along those lines.Thanx man. 
For years, I have always followed the strategy of drafting one kicker in the last round. I then look for the best available kicker that has already had a bye week. I then drop the original kicker for the new one. This frees up a roster spot for a RB or WR, plus I don't have to make a kicker decision every week.
This year: Drafted Gostowski in the 16th round and dropped him for Vanderjagt after week 3. Vanderjagt is top 5 in points per game.
This year: Drafted Gostowski in the 16th round and dropped him for Vanderjagt after week 3. Vanderjagt is top 5 in points per game.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I'll take the other side of that; those teams get in the end zone and don't call in the kicker. I have LT and Kaeding; Kaeding has beeen in single digits the last four weeks after a good start.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Still low standard deviation, though. Not like you can complain when LT gets in the end zone.
bonesman
Footballguy
I'm suprised you didn't read the whole thread.... that's essentially what i said about 5 posts before yours.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Of course I can.
I can play LT AND a (hopefully) higher scoring kicker.Lost last week by three points. Going back to Stover this week..which of course means 20 points for Kaeding....Obviously you want a kicker from an offense that will push the ball down the field and regularly stall in the redzone, but if anyone can figure out a way of accurately predicting that, fill the rest of us in on the secret formula. When drafting at the beginning of the season, I always try to land a K with as late a bye week as possible. It gives you more time to evaluate your roster and wait to see who gets injured before trying to decide who to drop from your roster to cover the bye week.
rotorooter
Footballguy
kickers area crap-shot. our league is petitioning dumping kickers and adding a second TE. I know this doesn't help you at all-- I draft the kicker from my favorite team and trade him in if my team's O sucks.
this year i have robbie gould
this year i have robbie gould
