Instinctive
Footballguy
The thing is, if you look at the situations surrounding Andre's career, he's performed better than those stats would indicate. Andre has his last season (86 for 1200+ yards) in 13 games...and two of those games he left early due to injury. That put shim on pace for...want to guess? Over 100 catches and over 1500 yards. If a guy can play through injury and have a "bad" season, and miss 3 games, and leave 2 more in the first or second quarter...and still have over 80 catches for over 1200 yards...the guy's a stud.This is what I mean about the general consensus regarding an overrated player like Andre Johnson vs. his actual production. Johnson has had over 1500 yards twice in his career. He has averaged 1145 yards per season throughout his career. He has 50 total TDs in his career, which averages out to barely over SIX per season. You call that kind of production the top WR in the league? He's never had more than 9 TDs in a season. Even in ppr, he's had over 100 receptions THREE times in eight seasons. Welker has as many 100 reception seasons, in far less playing time.Those would be the people on this siteAnd ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.
Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.
On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.
The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.
The previous season? 100+ catches for 1500+ yards.
The season before? 100+ catches (115 actually) for 1500+ yards.
The season before? Which you are putting in his career average? Broke his leg in the 9th game of the year. Would you like to guess what his pace was? Yeah. 100+ catches and 1500+ yards.
And in each of those seasons, he had 8, 9, 8, and 8 TDs. You know what his pace was when you account for the missed games? (3 last year, 7 in 2007). His per game TD pace projects to an average of...10 TDs per season. Which would be double digits, last time I checked. And the difference between your WR1 having 8 and 10 TDs...not gonna be that much. His average (not accounting for any games missed, purely aggregate TDs/seasons) the past four years (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) is 8/year. That's definitely respectable...
Now, you're correct on one point. He hasn't always had those type of stats. In fact, let's look at his pre-2007 per game pace stats: Each year's per game pace average together gives him 5 catches/game, and 65 yards per game, a pedestrian 80 catch 1000+ yard season. And his TD pace is only 5 per season. In summary, he was a decent WR2 to have in PPR, but not the greatest by any means.
Now, that's counting his rookie season. Typically a poor season for the WR position, which has a high learning curve. But we won't even make that a factor.
What happened between 2006 and 2007 that gives Andre Johnson two very different 4-year career splits?
Care to hazard a guess? Stumped? Oh yeah...the Texans actually got a QB who didn't suck (Matt Schaub) and went .500 for the first time ever. Oh yeah...they hired an offensive minded Head Coach who wan't an idiot. Oh yeah.......need I go on?
Look:
Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.
I won't go into any detail on Rice, but suffice it to say that a back who has started two seasons, and gone over 1800 yards both seasons, on an offense that is still on the rise - is a guy I would love to get at 6 or so. Yardage is consistent. TDs are not.
Look, I agree with your concept. That's how I was able to ride Matt Schaub in 2008-2009 when everybody said he was "made of glass" or "injury prone". But when you looked at his missed games...in 2008 every single one was a result of a penalized late hit that was later fined (4 games) and one where he had the flu. The consensus was that he couldn't finish a full season when the reality was...he'd been unlucky.
Thats the same thing you see with Johnson. It says you joined in 07, so let's think back to then on the opinions about Johnson: they included things like "ok receiver," "good but not great," "all his value comes from targets..."
And yet he started a 4 year run of dominance rarely seen in the NFL. Some of us who follow your same thoughts have been able to benefit from that for 4 years now.
Because you have to look at the individual situations. And drater makes a good point on Bowe - I think he's got a ton of physical talent, and he seems to have his head on straight. But I'm not going to blow a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him because he also comes with a hefty amount of risk. I think he'll be a nice WR2. I'm not going to pay a WR1 price for him. I'm the opposite of you. You think he's undervalued...I think he's OVERvalued.
But the concept you put forth is correct. A little abrasive. And the poster boys for your concept are both AWFUL examples, But the concept is correct, and one I totally agree with. The difference is that you assume I like a guy like Andre Johnson because "that's the consensus," when the reality is that I liked him when the consensus was to be down on him. And he has yet to show me anything to indicate that I was wrong. In fact, he's been even better than I thought he would be. He's still in his prime. He still has a good/great QB in a strong offense. Regardless of what anyone else thinks...I think that a healthy Andre in Houston means 100 catches and 1500 yards. Just like his pace has been for the past 4 years. I'll take him 5th overall, after Charles, AD, CJ, Foster. And I'd rather be drafting 8th or so, in order to get him after McCoy, Rice, and MJD too and have an earlier 2nd round pick.
Your ideas are good. But when you make a post that arrogant and then use examples which are completely wrong...no wonder people ripped you man.
Really? Context doesn't mean anything? If you actually believe that, then IMO you are operating in a vacuum. I can't imagine not taking into account the back story or the circumstances under which any player achieved what they did - to me that is Fantasy Football 101. You claim to have been modestly successful with this approach and while that may be true, I do hope that some newbie here doesn't take your It's the points, stupid strategy all that seriously. My experience is that the best Fantasy players look at the big picture - not just last year's stat line.
